🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[cabron]

Nickal showed in this fight all his weaknesses - bad striking. As a wrestler, there are no questions to him. As a striker - why did he start with punches immediately, with that overhand? And how many knees did he get? De Ridder tested Nickal and proved that Nickal was given a huge discount before signing. He has got so few fights, and wanted to join top15. I dont know why Nickal use his wrestling so little. Anyway, Craig showed that Nickal isnt as good as wanted to be, de Ridder proved that fact.

The knees just too much for Nickal, probably broke his rib and then the knee to his face. I too was thinking Nickal really is the top dog between the two but truth is Ridder was two time champ in One FC, the experience alone seem a big difference for this 3 to 1 odds.  If one of us won for rooting Ridder, he must have seen Nickal struggle to pin Craig.

It would have been Nickal if he just landed an overhead. 

[TopTort777]

Nickal was possibly hyped by UFC, but fights against Craig and de Ridder showed real picture. Months ago, when Nickal appear, I have said that he was a very raw fighter. A guy with cool wrestling background, but that isnt enough for todays mma. Previously you can master skills, get black belt and beat most of the guys. Today, everyone is universal fighters. To be able to compete on top level, previously if was enough have black belt in wrestling, today a minimum are blackbelts in wrestling, bjj and one of striking skills plus a talent

[tokeweed]

Nickal showed in this fight all his weaknesses - bad striking. As a wrestler, there are no questions to him. As a striker - why did he start with punches immediately, with that overhand? And how many knees did he get? De Ridder tested Nickal and proved that Nickal was given a huge discount before signing. He has got so few fights, and wanted to join top15. I dont know why Nickal use his wrestling so little. Anyway, Craig showed that Nickal isnt as good as wanted to be, de Ridder proved that fact.

Yeah...  I like Nickal as a guy in the UFC who's soft spoken and overall looks like he's a good person irl.  But I'm afraid that I have to agree.  He was outclassed, outgunned and outwilled in the cage.  But in fairness his opponent has been in MMA far longer than him.  The surely is a learning experience for Nickal.  It's either he gets better or we see him lose again in his next fight.  The UFC better be careful who they match him with next.

Here's the roster for the next event.

Date:  Saturday, May 10
Main Card (PPV):  10:00pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+):  8:00pm EST
Early Prelims (ESPN+/Fight Pass):  6:00pm EST
Venue:  Centre Bel, Montreal, Quebec



Main Card (PPV)
Welterweight:  Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena      
Women's Flyweight:  Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot         
Bantamweight:  José Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi            
Women's Flyweight:  Alexa Grasso vs. Natália Silva   

Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+)
Welterweight:  Mike Malott vs.   Charles Radtke            
Women's Flyweight:  Jéssica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius            
Light Heavyweight:  Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cuțelaba            
Light Heavyweight:  Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan

Early Prelims (ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass)
Middleweight:  Marc-André Barriault vs. Bruno Silva            
Featherweight:  Daniel Santos vs. Lee Jeong-yeong            
Bantamweight:  Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan   

UFC 315:  Countdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipvTBLuBwUM

I'm more excited with the women's match ups in the main card. 

[moneystery]

Welterweight:  Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena      

Belal vs JDM is a fight that i think will be exciting... because Belal is the current UFC welterweight champion, and JDM is currently ranked #5 in the welterweight division. both have aggressive fighting styles, with JDM relying more on efficient striking, and Belal who is more on pressure wrestling & cardio. and i see that in this fight even though both are equally good, Belal will still be able to defend his title this time. he just has experience, solidity, and incredible endurance, which is able to survive JDM's early output.

[pawel7777]

Belal:
24 wins: 5 KOs, 1 submission, 18 decisions
3 losses: 1 KO, 2 decisions
1 No contest

Maddalena:
17 wins: 12 KOs, 2 submissions, 3 decisions
2 losses: 1 KO, 1 submission

So it's a duel between Belal's 75% decision wins Vs Jack's 82% finish wins ratio. The big question is, who will be better at imposing their style. I think we might see a similar fight to Belal Vs Leon, where Belal used his superior wrestling to control the fight.

Combining all the stats of those 2 and considering both wins and losses (and excluding the no-contest fight), we have 46 fights, 23 of them (50%) went to the distance, and 23 were finishes, so it's a perfect 50/50 split.

The odds are x1.56 for the fight to go to the distance and x2.33 for not. Despite the 50% split mentioned above and the fact that Maddalena has never lost by decision, I think Belal winning by decision is still the most probable outcome.

[TopTort777]

Yeah...  I like Nickal as a guy in the UFC who's soft spoken and overall looks like he's a good person irl.  But I'm afraid that I have to agree.  He was outclassed, outgunned and outwilled in the cage.  But in fairness his opponent has been in MMA far longer than him.  The surely is a learning experience for Nickal.  It's either he gets better or we see him lose again in his next fight.  The UFC better be careful who they match him with next.

I would say that this is was Nickal first serious test, chance to enter title race, but he has failed it. The fight against Craig raised lots of questions, now #13 outclassed him. What is next for a potential star? I dont know. There are a lot of to think about for match makers.

Belal vs JDM is a fight that i think will be exciting... because Belal is the current UFC welterweight champion, and JDM is currently ranked #5 in the welterweight division. both have aggressive fighting styles, with JDM relying more on efficient striking, and Belal who is more on pressure wrestling & cardio.

Sorry to say, but your post reveal that you are quite unfamiliar with UFC or Belal As this guy is the most boring champion and one of the most trolled for being boring guy in whole UFC division. He is such an "exciting" champion, that part of UFC stuff dont know who Belal is and how he looks like. That "aggressive fighting style" is a master of winning by decision aka walk, slowly fight, avoid any danger kind of guy

[Synchronice]

Welterweight:  Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena      

Belal vs JDM is a fight that i think will be exciting... because Belal is the current UFC welterweight champion, and JDM is currently ranked #5 in the welterweight division. both have aggressive fighting styles, with JDM relying more on efficient striking, and Belal who is more on pressure wrestling & cardio. and i see that in this fight even though both are equally good, Belal will still be able to defend his title this time. he just has experience, solidity, and incredible endurance, which is able to survive JDM's early output.

Do you remember who Belal is? Huh, I'm kidding. No fight is interesting with Belal, he has the title of the most boring UFC fighter of all time. To be honest, people don't like when Belal is involved in fight but I don't care. It will be interesting to me because if Belal loses, then Makhachev immediately goes up but that's also what I don't want to see because I want to see Topuria VS Makhachev.

By the way, Belal said that he is not gonna wrestle Jack Della Maddalena in this fight. If he really does what he says, then it will be amazing and really interesting fight because it will be the exact opposite of what people don't like about him but the same thing was promised by Ankalaev but he forgot it once he got into the Octagon.

[tokeweed]

Belal:
24 wins: 5 KOs, 1 submission, 18 decisions
3 losses: 1 KO, 2 decisions
1 No contest

Maddalena:
17 wins: 12 KOs, 2 submissions, 3 decisions
2 losses: 1 KO, 1 submission

So it's a duel between Belal's 75% decision wins Vs Jack's 82% finish wins ratio. The big question is, who will be better at imposing their style. I think we might see a similar fight to Belal Vs Leon, where Belal used his superior wrestling to control the fight.

Combining all the stats of those 2 and considering both wins and losses (and excluding the no-contest fight), we have 46 fights, 23 of them (50%) went to the distance, and 23 were finishes, so it's a perfect 50/50 split.

The odds are x1.56 for the fight to go to the distance and x2.33 for not. Despite the 50% split mentioned above and the fact that Maddalena has never lost by decision, I think Belal winning by decision is still the most probable outcome.

We haven't seen JDM in a 5 rounder tho, so with all of Muhammad's all out wrestling from R1 to R5 I think JDM will fatigue and could be finished via ground and pound late in the fight.  And JDM hits harrrd...  So there's also a slight chance that he KO's Muhammad with a clean shot.

So dunno...  As I think the champ wins, Muhammad via KO/TKO at 8.60, Muhammad via SUB at 7.00, Muhammad win R4 at 20.00 and Muhammad win at R5 at 27.00 could be value lines.

[TopTort777]

Welterweight:  Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena      

Belal vs JDM is a fight that i think will be exciting... because Belal is the current UFC welterweight champion, and JDM is currently ranked #5 in the welterweight division. both have aggressive fighting styles, with JDM relying more on efficient striking, and Belal who is more on pressure wrestling & cardio. and i see that in this fight even though both are equally good, Belal will still be able to defend his title this time. he just has experience, solidity, and incredible endurance, which is able to survive JDM's early output.

Do you remember who Belal is? Huh, I'm kidding. No fight is interesting with Belal, he has the title of the most boring UFC fighter of all time. To be honest, people don't like when Belal is involved in fight but I don't care. It will be interesting to me because if Belal loses, then Makhachev immediately goes up but that's also what I don't want to see because I want to see Topuria VS Makhachev.

By the way, Belal said that he is not gonna wrestle Jack Della Maddalena in this fight. If he really does what he says, then it will be amazing and really interesting fight because it will be the exact opposite of what people don't like about him but the same thing was promised by Ankalaev but he forgot it once he got into the Octagon.

That is something 99,99% fighters say, that they are not going to use their strength or primary fighting style. The same as everyone talk about there will be a war in the octagon and promises to knock out their opponents. But once the gate is closed, they completely forget about promises and stick to what they do best. Especially champions often sin like this, to keep the belt as long a possible, instead of showing that they are a truly top of the division, they do maximum to avoid damage, risk, are cautious and prefer to have defensive style, to win fight by points.

To be honest, somewhere deep in my heart I wish Belal to win this fight. First of all it will piss off lots of people Secondly, I expect Belal to finally open from other side than point gainer and at least get in some highlight.

[tokeweed]

^  Yeah if Muhammad feels those punches to the head kinda wobble him, pretty sure he starts going for the TD or the body lock to neutralize JDM's offense.  And it's what usually wrestlers' do as they're inclined to go for where they're most accustomed to in the cage...

Anyway, here are some matches to watch.  I feel like Shev wins here as an underdog.  I think we see wrestler Shev once again.  She has gotten really good with the TD's.

UFC Free Fight:  Manon Fiorot vs Rose Namajunas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRvze9C3NCg

UFC Free Fight:  Valentina Shevchenko vs Lauren Murphy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aT0T6Y4jVLU

UFC Free Fight:  Jack Della Maddalena vs Gilbert Burns
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWZR4BJHh74

UFC Free Fight:  Belal Muhammad vs Leon Edwards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xk7ei4IIqbo

[TopTort777]

tokeweed, you should add one more fight to event. Its lightweight   division fight in main card between Benoît Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec. Now everyone is like "Who is Kyle Prepolec" and I was in your shoes as well

Originally BSD was planned to face Joel Alvarez who withdrew due to injury. And here comes interesting part. Prepolec is a guy who is returning to UFC (coincidence? second event and we have returning fighter. UFC has roster problems?) after 2 losses. After UFC he had fights in little promotions, so his level is below average, since he got release. More interesting part - BSD was offered to fight Gamrot, but has refused that offer. Instead he has chosen no-name with 5 day notice.



BSD scared of Gamrot or this is fighter/manager IQ ? Because he comes from 2 KOes and needs a punching bag to recover, otherwise it would be 0-3, all KO and a ticket to retirement.

[pawel7777]

(...)
BSD scared of Gamrot or this is fighter/manager IQ ? Because he comes from 2 KOes and needs a punching bag to recover, otherwise it would be 0-3, all KO and a ticket to retirement.

I think that's it. There's no way he (or his manager) would reject Gamrot fight if they felt confident that BSD could win it.
The purse for fighting Gamrot would be much bigger, plus, a potential win would elevate Saint Denis, maybe even to the top 7, which would be his gateway for fighting the top names and start earning big.
On the other hand, a loss to Gamrot could drop BSD outside of the top 15 and it would be hard for him to return, so they want to play it safe and decided to go for Kyle Prepolec, a Canadian whose base sport is hockey 

[TopTort777]

Lol, they should have filled card with current or former hockey players, with tough guys, or replace octagon with ice ring Because, UFC 315 ticket sales struggling just days before showtime — ‘About 50 percent sold’. Some say that card is weak, but there are some cool guys (btw strange that no one mentioned or noticed Jose Aldo fighting). Maybe tickets are expensive, or maybe Belal is to blame

Remember how we talked about making an event in Spain on a football stadium with +50k attendance? That was times when we talked about Topuria vs someone. Now lets get back to UFC 315 with two title fights and such low attendance. Are you still sure that one fighter fighting in his hometown (even though he is Georgian) will be able to sell all the tickets?

[tokeweed]

tokeweed, you should add one more fight to event. Its lightweight   division fight in main card between Benoît Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec. Now everyone is like "Who is Kyle Prepolec" and I was in your shoes as well

Originally BSD was planned to face Joel Alvarez who withdrew due to injury. And here comes interesting part. Prepolec is a guy who is returning to UFC (coincidence? second event and we have returning fighter. UFC has roster problems?) after 2 losses. After UFC he had fights in little promotions, so his level is below average, since he got release. More interesting part - BSD was offered to fight Gamrot, but has refused that offer. Instead he has chosen no-name with 5 day notice.



BSD scared of Gamrot or this is fighter/manager IQ ? Because he comes from 2 KOes and needs a punching bag to recover, otherwise it would be 0-3, all KO and a ticket to retirement.

Yeah that match up was recently added.  Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez would've been sweet tho.  As for roster problems...  With the number of events they're having per year, I'd say yes.  Too many events, the talent is getting spread too thin.

As for Saint Denis choosing the Prepolec guy, it's a wise choice to avoid Gamrot imho.  He should just pick the weaker guy and collect his check if Alvarez isn't available.

UFC 315:  Pre Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hQ59e-yPWE

[TopTort777]

tokeweed, are you placing bets this week? I have no question over Belal vs JDM fight and also see Belal as a favourite, but in other title fight, Fiorot is a favourite against current champion. This is all due to Fiorot being undefeated lately and Shevchenko far from her peak performance in last fights?

Guys, I would gladly read your comments about why in there are so many fighters who are returning back to UFC after being kicked out. Is this a roster problem because there are too many events? Or fighters are ready to fight for a lower payment?

Found this on reddit.


Benoit Saint Denis looks like he is already took a beating Odds on Prepolec are +6.50. tokeweed, its your chance, now or never

[trendcoin]

I think Belal is the clear favorite against JDM and after winning this fight he will move to middleweight. Then Islam will move to welterweight. I think that's why Islam didn't accept the fight. These are my personal speculation. The statements they made on their social media accounts form an idea like this in my mind...

[pawel7777]

Guys, I would gladly read your comments about why in there are so many fighters who are returning back to UFC after being kicked out. Is this a roster problem because there are too many events? Or fighters are ready to fight for a lower payment?

Is this a thing though?
I might not be in the loop of the recent news. Did we have any big names returning to the UFC recently? What did I miss?

But if I had to guess, I'd say it's probably both. The UFC holds events almost every week, so they need a decent pool of fighters if they want to keep going this way. As for the payments, I'd imagine established fighters would go with whoever pays them best, but must also consider perspectives for the future, i.e. so what if a lesser-known organisation could offer them a better pay per fight if they cannot find them enough suitable opponents to fight as often as they would wish to.
I can't recall the name but I think I've seen an interview with some UFC fighter recently, who mentioned that he came to the UFC because other promotion could not find him enough matches.
Or maybe the UFC stopped being cheap and now offers decent pay? Nah, probably not.

[TopTort777]

Guys, I would gladly read your comments about why in there are so many fighters who are returning back to UFC after being kicked out. Is this a roster problem because there are too many events? Or fighters are ready to fight for a lower payment?

Is this a thing though?
I might not be in the loop of the recent news. Did we have any big names returning to the UFC recently? What did I miss?

But if I had to guess, I'd say it's probably both. The UFC holds events almost every week, so they need a decent pool of fighters if they want to keep going this way. As for the payments, I'd imagine established fighters would go with whoever pays them best, but must also consider perspectives for the future, i.e. so what if a lesser-known organisation could offer them a better pay per fight if they cannot find them enough suitable opponents to fight as often as they would wish to.
I can't recall the name but I think I've seen an interview with some UFC fighter recently, who mentioned that he came to the UFC because other promotion could not find him enough matches.
Or maybe the UFC stopped being cheap and now offers decent pay? Nah, probably not.

I wont say it big names, but

UFC 315, Kyle Prepolec. He was released in 2019, now he is back.
UFC 315, Jose Aldo. He is already in Hall of Fame, but returned in 2024.
UFC 315, Brad Katona. Released in 2020.
From previous event Jeremy Stephens vs Mason Jones. Both were former UFC fighters, now they are back.

There are some guys who have fought in UFC before 2020, were released and returned last 1-3 years. I have checked only last 5 events, that is about 130 fighters and around 7-9 fighters are those who have returned. With having fresh blood all over the world who dream to be signed with UFC, contenders series, there are ~5% returns

I just want to find explanation for that. Coincidence? It is me who is weird, spot and interprets things differently? Lack of new promising fighters? Too many event? Change in payments?

[Synchronice]

So, here we go! Dana White confirmed that Ilia Topuria will challenge for Lightweight title next at UFC 317. He will either fight Islam Makhachev or Charles Oliveira, everything is now tied to Belal. I think that today we all can say that we are on Belal's side in the fight, we didn't win Belal to win this much before. If he wins, then we will see Topuria VS Makhachev but if he loses, Makhachev will move up and Topuria will have to fight Charles Oliveira.

I'm a huge fan of this fight to happen. Topuria deserved it, his last two fights were phenomenal, he is the confidence and I believe he will be the one that will knock out or submit Makhachev. Guys, do you remember what Dvalishvili did to Umar in front of Khabib? That's what's gonna be repeated. There is a beef between Georgia and Dagestan and Dana White has to use that beef and I think the myth of Dagestan fighters is going to end by Georgian fighters. But maybe I'm biased, I don't know because I'm a huge fan of Merab Dvalishvili just because of what he achieved in his life. Topuria, I just like him, he is a very good fighter and I believe in this guy.

[TopTort777]

Maddalena hasnt won yet, but everyone already decided that in case he wins, his opponent have to be Makhachev A champion without a right to select his next move. Maddalena hasnt won yet, but everyone already given welterweight belt to Makhachev. But then what? Makhachev is in good relationship with Rakhmonov (as he is next in a line for the belt), which means he most likely not going to fight him. Retire? Duck Rakhmonov? Rakhmonov want to get a belt as well.

Makhachev will move up and Topuria will have to fight Charles Oliveira.

For the title? Hope Oliveira finishes him Topuria think too highly of oneself after beating Volk. Topuria need more challenge before becoming lightweight champ. Id better watch how he handle Evloev in featherweight than fighting in lightweight. Topuria is like a midget for lightweight.