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September 02, 2014, 04:28:44 AM Last edit: September 02, 2014, 05:01:16 AM by BurtW |
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UPDATE!!! This thread is just a quick attempt to project the minimum cost per BTC over the next year assuming the growth in the hash rate next year matches the growth in the hash rate over the last year. tl;dr: either the growth in the hash rate must slow down or the price of BTC must go up, a lot. Using the following conversion factors, constants and assumptions: GH/s per Diff 0.007158388055 Blocks/Period 2016 BTC/Period 50400 Watts per GH/s 1 (assumed constant for the next year - it may go down) USD/kWh $0.10
In other words assuming everyone in the network pays $0.10 per kWh and everyone has miners that burn 1 W per GH/s (1 J/GH) then we can calculate the average production cost for each BTC over the last year as follows: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost Date Difficulty Delta Days GH/s kW kWh $/Period $/BTC --------- -------------- ------ ---- ----------- ------- ---------- ---------- ------ 24-Aug-13 65,750,060 470,664 471 04-Sep-13 86,933,018 32.22% 11 622,300 622 164,287 $16,429 $0.33 14-Sep-13 112,628,549 29.56% 10 806,239 806 193,497 $19,350 $0.38 25-Sep-13 148,819,200 32.13% 11 1,065,306 1,065 281,241 $28,124 $0.56 06-Oct-13 189,281,249 27.19% 11 1,354,949 1,355 357,706 $35,771 $0.71 16-Oct-13 267,731,249 41.45% 10 1,916,524 1,917 459,966 $45,997 $0.91 26-Oct-13 390,928,788 46.02% 10 2,798,420 2,798 671,621 $67,162 $1.33 05-Nov-13 510,929,738 30.70% 10 3,657,433 3,657 877,784 $87,778 $1.74 17-Nov-13 609,482,680 19.29% 12 4,362,914 4,363 1,256,519 $125,652 $2.49 29-Nov-13 707,408,283 16.07% 12 5,063,903 5,064 1,458,404 $145,840 $2.89 10-Dec-13 908,350,862 28.41% 11 6,502,328 6,502 1,716,615 $171,661 $3.41 21-Dec-13 1,180,923,195 30.01% 11 8,453,506 8,454 2,231,726 $223,173 $4.43 02-Jan-14 1,418,481,395 20.12% 12 10,154,040 10,154 2,924,364 $292,436 $5.80 13-Jan-14 1,789,546,951 26.16% 11 12,810,272 12,810 3,381,912 $338,191 $6.71 24-Jan-14 2,193,847,870 22.59% 11 15,704,414 15,704 4,145,965 $414,597 $8.23 05-Feb-14 2,621,404,453 19.49% 12 18,765,030 18,765 5,404,329 $540,433 $10.72 17-Feb-14 3,129,573,175 19.39% 12 22,402,699 22,403 6,451,977 $645,198 $12.80 28-Feb-14 3,815,723,799 21.92% 11 27,314,432 27,314 7,211,010 $721,101 $14.31 13-Mar-14 4,250,217,920 11.39% 13 30,424,709 30,425 9,492,509 $949,251 $18.83 24-Mar-14 5,006,860,589 17.80% 11 35,841,051 35,841 9,462,037 $946,204 $18.77 05-Apr-14 6,119,726,089 22.23% 12 43,807,374 43,807 12,616,524 $1,261,652 $25.03 17-Apr-14 6,978,842,650 14.04% 12 49,957,264 49,957 14,387,692 $1,438,769 $28.55 29-Apr-14 8,000,872,136 14.64% 12 57,273,348 57,273 16,494,724 $1,649,472 $32.73 12-May-14 8,853,416,309 10.66% 13 63,376,190 63,376 19,773,371 $1,977,337 $39.23 24-May-14 10,455,720,138 18.10% 12 74,846,102 74,846 21,555,677 $2,155,568 $42.77 05-Jun-14 11,756,551,917 12.44% 12 84,157,961 84,158 24,237,493 $2,423,749 $48.09 18-Jun-14 13,462,580,115 14.51% 13 96,370,373 96,370 30,067,556 $3,006,756 $59.66 29-Jun-14 16,818,461,371 24.93% 11 120,393,073 120,393 31,783,771 $3,178,377 $63.06 12-Jul-14 17,336,316,979 3.08% 13 124,100,084 124,100 38,719,226 $3,871,923 $76.82 25-Jul-14 18,736,441,558 8.08% 13 134,122,719 134,123 41,846,288 $4,184,629 $83.03 08-Aug-14 19,729,645,941 5.30% 14 141,232,462 141,232 47,454,107 $4,745,411 $94.15 19-Aug-14 23,844,670,039 20.86% 11 170,689,401 170,689 45,062,002 $4,506,200 $89.41 31-Aug-14 27,428,630,902 15.03% 12 196,344,784 196,345 56,547,298 $5,654,730 $112.20
Continued in next post...
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BurtW (OP)
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September 02, 2014, 04:29:02 AM Last edit: September 02, 2014, 05:12:55 AM by BurtW |
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When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days. Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC --------- ------------------ ---------- ------ ---------- -------------- ---------- 11-Sep-14 33,220,936,877 237,808 238 66,349 $6,634,853 $131.64 23-Sep-14 40,236,446,759 288,028 288 80,360 $8,035,984 $159.44 04-Oct-14 48,733,473,526 348,853 349 97,330 $9,733,002 $193.12 16-Oct-14 59,024,880,009 422,523 423 117,884 $11,788,392 $233.90 28-Oct-14 71,489,598,585 511,750 512 142,778 $14,277,833 $283.29 08-Nov-14 86,586,583,575 619,820 620 172,930 $17,292,988 $343.11 20-Nov-14 104,871,710,060 750,712 751 209,449 $20,944,876 $415.57 02-Dec-14 127,018,241,359 909,246 909 253,680 $25,367,960 $503.33 13-Dec-14 153,841,618,762 1,101,258 1,101 307,251 $30,725,098 $609.62 25-Dec-14 186,329,486,300 1,333,819 1,334 372,135 $37,213,544 $738.36 05-Jan-15 225,678,056,071 1,615,491 1,615 450,722 $45,072,202 $894.29 17-Jan-15 273,336,153,086 1,956,646 1,957 545,904 $54,590,430 $1,083.14 29-Jan-15 331,058,561,407 2,369,846 2,370 661,187 $66,118,694 $1,311.88 09-Feb-15 400,970,635,767 2,870,303 2,870 800,815 $80,081,465 $1,588.92 21-Feb-15 485,646,557,708 3,476,447 3,476 969,929 $96,992,858 $1,924.46 05-Mar-15 588,204,117,648 4,210,593 4,211 1,174,756 $117,475,554 $2,330.86 16-Mar-15 712,419,512,763 5,099,775 5,100 1,422,837 $142,283,732 $2,823.09 28-Mar-15 862,866,387,600 6,176,732 6,177 1,723,308 $172,330,835 $3,419.26 08-Apr-15 1,045,084,236,901 7,481,119 7,481 2,087,232 $208,723,207 $4,141.33 20-Apr-15 1,265,782,371,309 9,060,961 9,061 2,528,008 $252,800,823 $5,015.89 02-May-15 1,533,086,956,002 10,974,431 10,974 3,061,866 $306,186,635 $6,075.13 13-May-15 1,856,840,218,301 13,291,983 13,292 3,708,463 $370,846,321 $7,358.06 25-May-15 2,248,962,841,151 16,098,949 16,099 4,491,607 $449,160,670 $8,911.92 06-Jun-15 2,723,892,885,897 19,498,682 19,499 5,440,132 $544,013,236 $10,793.91 17-Jun-15 3,299,117,405,623 23,616,363 23,616 6,588,965 $658,896,517 $13,073.34 29-Jun-15 3,995,816,323,188 28,603,604 28,604 7,980,405 $798,040,547 $15,834.14 10-Jul-15 4,839,642,281,734 34,644,038 34,644 9,665,686 $966,568,646 $19,177.95 22-Jul-15 5,861,665,181,962 41,960,074 41,960 11,706,861 $1,170,686,065 $23,227.90 03-Aug-15 7,099,516,184,307 50,821,092 50,821 14,179,085 $1,417,908,463 $28,133.10 14-Aug-15 8,598,773,298,472 61,553,356 61,553 17,173,386 $1,717,338,634 $34,074.18 26-Aug-15 10,414,639,578,109 74,552,032 74,552 20,800,017 $2,080,001,680 $41,269.87 07-Sep-15 12,613,975,712,232 90,295,733 90,296 25,192,510 $2,519,250,952 $49,985.14
In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1
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philipma1957
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September 02, 2014, 05:00:43 AM Last edit: September 02, 2014, 06:48:35 PM by philipma1957 |
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Don't see the updates but diff is slowing from june 29 to now it is around 10% and the current predication from www.bitcoincharts.com is under 1%. Price is at 470-490. At a .8 watt s-3 480 usd and 10 cents a kwatt it does not pay power at a diff of 114,000 we are at 27,428. So if we get 10% jumps in diff no miners turns a profit around April 1st 2015 At 15% diff jumps miners end it around Jan 21st 2015 Lastly at 20% the party is over on Dec 23 2014. So the next 5 months will be very interesting. I may do more coin holding then any other move.
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BurtW (OP)
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September 02, 2014, 05:17:00 AM |
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So the next 5 months will be very interesting. I may do more coin holding then any other move.
Yes indeed.
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September 02, 2014, 12:02:36 PM |
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It will be very interesting to see if the institutional miners will learn what the small miners have known for a while, mining more quickly than imagined becomes a very marginal game and a money sink if you are not careful.
I wonder also if the institutional miners will act rationally with prices being such. The desire to break even on initial investment I would think could lead them to sell even for a loss initially. I don't smell many holders in the big guys as they seem to be non-believers. Fiat still rules bitcoin.
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September 02, 2014, 12:30:50 PM |
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I wonder also if the institutional miners will act rationally with prices being such. The desire to break even on initial investment I would think could lead them to sell even for a loss initially. I don't smell many holders in the big guys as they seem to be non-believers. Fiat still rules bitcoin.
Luckly we have one big miner that is holding most or all of the coins and that is Bitfury. I suspect that the rest are holding less than 50% of what they mine. KnC stated that they aren't holding any. Damn tards!
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philipma1957
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September 02, 2014, 06:54:23 PM |
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I wonder also if the institutional miners will act rationally with prices being such. The desire to break even on initial investment I would think could lead them to sell even for a loss initially. I don't smell many holders in the big guys as they seem to be non-believers. Fiat still rules bitcoin.
Luckly we have one big miner that is holding most or all of the coins and that is Bitfury. I suspect that the rest are holding less than 50% of what they mine. KnC stated that they aren't holding any. Damn tards! Well something else we agree on. Actually with the 3 big builders ; bitmaintech,bitfury,knc there must be over 100ph self mining. Why should they do anything but mine. I think the top ten builders could own 160 of the 210ph mining right now. All they need to do is limit growth under 4-6% and mine. I make that statement with the following in mind : power at 4-8 cents a kwatt , gear at .6-1watt a gh and btc at 480usd.
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BurtW (OP)
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September 02, 2014, 07:05:26 PM |
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I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate: Average Average Period Covered Per Adjustment From To Adjust Length --------- --------- ------- ---------- 14-Mar-13 13-Mar-14 23.92% 11.38 days 29-Jun-13 29-Jun-14 23.45% 11.41 days 24-Aug-13 31-Aug-14 21.12% 11.63 days
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samsonn25
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September 02, 2014, 07:06:59 PM |
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Can they build at $20-25 GH though?
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samsonn25
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September 02, 2014, 07:07:36 PM |
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I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate: Average Average Period Covered Per Adjustment From To Adjust Length --------- --------- ------- ---------- 14-Mar-13 13-Mar-14 23.92% 11.38 days 29-Jun-13 29-Jun-14 23.45% 11.41 days 24-Aug-13 31-Aug-14 21.12% 11.63 days
Because it is becoming less profitable to mine. Or sell unprofitable machines to the public.
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dropt
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September 02, 2014, 07:49:01 PM |
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I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate: Average Average Period Covered Per Adjustment From To Adjust Length --------- --------- ------- ---------- 14-Mar-13 13-Mar-14 23.92% 11.38 days 29-Jun-13 29-Jun-14 23.45% 11.41 days 24-Aug-13 31-Aug-14 21.12% 11.63 days
Because it is becoming less profitable to mine. Or sell unprofitable machines to the public. Or each additional machine added signifies a smaller and smaller increase overall.
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BurtW (OP)
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September 02, 2014, 07:50:04 PM |
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Or each additional machine added signifies a smaller and smaller increase overall.
Very good point.
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philipma1957
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September 02, 2014, 08:05:40 PM |
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I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate: Average Average Period Covered Per Adjustment From To Adjust Length --------- --------- ------- ---------- 14-Mar-13 13-Mar-14 23.92% 11.38 days 29-Jun-13 29-Jun-14 23.45% 11.41 days 24-Aug-13 31-Aug-14 21.12% 11.63 days
Because it is becoming less profitable to mine. Or sell unprofitable machines to the public. Or each additional machine added signifies a smaller and smaller increase overall. yes going from 2ph to 4ph is no where close to 200ph to 202ph. one is 100 % diff the other is 1 % diff yet both are a 2ph in gear jump. Also you need cheap power a 1 watt machine means 20 mega-watts for 20 ph. So for the network to jump from 200ph to 220ph you need a new powerplant small one but a power plant none the less. so to do a 20ph jump the plant below needs to be built (in the metaphorical sense for an analogy ) http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-111/issue-11/departments/managing-the-plant/repowering-a-small-coal-fired-power-plant.html So down the road when and if we get to 400ph 10 percent is 40ph and means 2 of the above plants would need construction. If BTC does not crash and burn growth will slow. Or should I say power availability cannot keep up with the asic builders ability to build asics. What does it mean for BTC> wish I knew. But I am buying coins more then gear.
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mwizard
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September 04, 2014, 01:46:28 PM |
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I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate: Average Average Period Covered Per Adjustment From To Adjust Length --------- --------- ------- ---------- 14-Mar-13 13-Mar-14 23.92% 11.38 days 29-Jun-13 29-Jun-14 23.45% 11.41 days 24-Aug-13 31-Aug-14 21.12% 11.63 days
Because it is becoming less profitable to mine. Or sell unprofitable machines to the public. Or each additional machine added signifies a smaller and smaller increase overall. yes going from 2ph to 4ph is no where close to 200ph to 202ph. one is 100 % diff the other is 1 % diff yet both are a 2ph in gear jump. Also you need cheap power a 1 watt machine means 20 mega-watts for 20 ph. So for the network to jump from 200ph to 220ph you need a new powerplant small one but a power plant none the less. so to do a 20ph jump the plant below needs to be built (in the metaphorical sense for an analogy ) http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-111/issue-11/departments/managing-the-plant/repowering-a-small-coal-fired-power-plant.html So down the road when and if we get to 400ph 10 percent is 40ph and means 2 of the above plants would need construction. If BTC does not crash and burn growth will slow. Or should I say power availability cannot keep up with the asic builders ability to build asics. What does it mean for BTC> wish I knew. But I am buying coins more then gear. The total electricity used for Bitcoin mining is trivial when compared to worldwide power generation. The total worldwide Bitcoin network only needs about 220 Megawatts for mining. A single typical large generator puts out 600 to 750 Megawatts and a typical power station would have several generators. So I would not worry about electricity producers not being able to provide power for ASIC miners. For example the Three Gorges dam complex in China has 32 generators each of 700 Megawatts. So the total worldwide Bitcoin mining network is equal to about 1% of the output of that one generating complex. Admittedly the Three Georges dam is a larger than average generating plant. As you know China is the world's leading generator of electricity and has the most generating capacity (1,200,000 Megawatts - CIA fact sheet). A comment on the link to the 20 megawatt plant referenced above. This is a very small plant and appears to have been mothballed since the above 2007 article. http://www.arpapower.org/lamar-repowering-project-plant-studies-2/
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BurtW (OP)
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September 04, 2014, 05:25:51 PM |
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This is all true at the current Bitcoin price. However, power consumption is a function of price. As the price of Bitcoins goes up then network can "afford" to spend more on power. Note that power consumption is a function of price not mining efficiency. Mining efficiency only affects hash rate and difficultly - not power consumption. For example, we cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2 e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Era starting year BTC/block BTC/hour GW power production --- --------------- ----------- ---------- ----- ---------------- 0 2009 50.00000000 0.00000000 1,350 58.41% 1 2013 25.00000000 0.00000000 675 29.20% 2 2017 12.50000000 0.00000000 337 14.60% 3 2021 6.25000000 0.00000000 169 7.30% 4 2025 3.12500000 0.00000000 84 3.65% 5 2029 1.56250000 0.00000000 42 1.83% 6 2033 0.78125000 1.31250000 27 1.17% 7 2037 0.39062500 3.65625000 27 1.17% 8 2041 0.19531250 4.82812500 27 1.17% 9 2045 0.09765625 5.41406250 27 1.17%
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September 04, 2014, 06:41:02 PM |
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This is all true at the current Bitcoin price. However, power consumption is a function of price.
There seems to be very little relationship between Bitcoin mining difficulty and price. In the last six months, difficulty has increased by a factor of 7, while price has declined a little. The cost of mining does not drive price. Price drives the level of mining activity.
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BurtW (OP)
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September 04, 2014, 06:59:51 PM |
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This is all true at the current Bitcoin price. However, power consumption is a function of price.
There seems to be very little relationship between Bitcoin mining difficulty and price. In the last six months, difficulty has increased by a factor of 7, while price has declined a little. The cost of mining does not drive price. Price drives the level of mining activity. Kind of. Total network power consumption is a function of price. Mining difficulty and hash rate are a function of mining efficiency.
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mskryxz
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September 04, 2014, 07:01:11 PM |
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This is all true at the current Bitcoin price. However, power consumption is a function of price. As the price of Bitcoins goes up then network can "afford" to spend more on power. Note that power consumption is a function of price not mining efficiency. Mining efficiency only affects hash rate and difficultly - not power consumption. For example, we cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2 e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Era starting year BTC/block BTC/hour GW power production --- --------------- ----------- ---------- ----- ---------------- 0 2009 50.00000000 0.00000000 1,350 58.41% 1 2013 25.00000000 0.00000000 675 29.20% 2 2017 12.50000000 0.00000000 337 14.60% 3 2021 6.25000000 0.00000000 169 7.30% 4 2025 3.12500000 0.00000000 84 3.65% 5 2029 1.56250000 0.00000000 42 1.83% 6 2033 0.78125000 1.31250000 27 1.17% 7 2037 0.39062500 3.65625000 27 1.17% 8 2041 0.19531250 4.82812500 27 1.17% 9 2045 0.09765625 5.41406250 27 1.17%
Great info!
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Wexlike
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September 04, 2014, 08:04:00 PM |
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I love this thread and all this number crunching. Awesome work !
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chriswilmer
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September 06, 2014, 01:31:57 AM |
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Wow, your latest calculation about the price within different era's is really insightful!
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