Yet another analyst

[exstasie]

I'm using the BTC / GBTC IPO as the start of SC 0 Primary B wave (B ending in 2017), the way a lot of Elliotticians use the start of an IPO as a continuation trend like in Facebook (wave 2).

Ah, this is probably the point at issue. I'm having trouble digging up my historic BTC count (going back to 2010) at the moment, but I think this gets the idea across:



Like xxxx123abcxxxx, I believe we are still in a bullish super cycle going back to 2010. Where we disagree is the potential magnitude of historic Wave 5. The proportions of intermediate (i) and (ii) (from the December 2018 low) suggest to me potential for much more upside.

Why do I use GBTC?  It's simple, the Elliott wave works best with a time and price Fibonacci ratio.  Time Fibonacci is relatively hard to define in a 24/7 market.  You can use a 1 hour, 12 hour, 1 day and possibly 3w (=21 days) to align your parameters.  The stock market is perfect Fibonacci time, with 30m (13 candles in one day), 4 hour (2 per day), 1 day, 1 week (5 days) and 1 month (21 days).  Any one of these can be used to align a chart to compare price movement to time with both variables taking Fibonacci values.  So, if a wave is a true impulse in the stock market, the time relationship for a correction is very easy to forecast with a small margin of error.  You simply add the two longest times of consecutive decline in the rising wave and move them up one degree and you can more or less guess what the subsequent low date will be.  Best example, an impulse with five falling days will predict a correction of 8 days.  If the correction exceeds the predicted number of days, then the rising wave was NOT an impulse.  This type of precision eludes me in 24/7 markets.

That's interesting. I've always had trouble applying Fibonacci time to BTC.

Good luck with your trading.

You as well! Cheers.

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[exstasie]

The wave count I shared here might be complete. That nasty wick above $9,600 looks like one of those "price doesn't want to go up" moments. Although we technically made a new high, the 4-hour (and higher) candle closes look like a fifth wave failure:

I moved stops up on part of my long position during yesterday's move. They were triggered. Awaiting more evidence that we are giving way to downward pressure similar to the late December ($7,700 to $6,850) or late January ($9,200 to $8,200) corrections. 3 hours until the close, the daily candle looks like a bearish gravestone doji off horizontal resistance:

[exstasie]

The daily printed that bearish gravestone doji.

A look at the Godmode oscillator shows some bearish signs too. Bearish divergence following caution dots + bearish signal/LSMA cross + energy likely crossing below the 50% = possible dump coming soon:



Look to the left (green arrows) for inverse (bullish) examples.

The weekly/monthly bull trends are still quite strong. I don't see that changing. I'm looking to the $8,800s area as the first line of support. That's the 200-day MA and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the $6,425-$9,615 rally.

[STT]

Resistance at those highs is normal, it can surpass it if theres enough demand and theres probably two bands to previous volume and any larger orders to be expected in that area.     But yea I'm really looking for some profit taking to occur on the last rise, thats the normal thing to happen.   We rise, we sell and eventually people spot even the low is bullish because its established somewhat higher in comparison over time so then we rise again.     9250 is the foothold BTC price needs to be pushing higher from, on this 4hr bar right now; ignoring volume or whatever time of day is most significant.

bullish super cycle going back to 2010

Was 2010 reliable pricing, its hard to put it into a cycle if BTC wasnt fully monetised.  I think post Mt.Gox we became more real and regular.   It felt like a gigantic loss from high to low at that time, turns out it was for the best.   Is that part of a cycle thats natural and relates now.
  Great arbitrage

[exstasie]

bullish super cycle going back to 2010

Was 2010 reliable pricing, its hard to put it into a cycle if BTC wasnt fully monetised.

I agree that we can't refer to Laszlo Hanyecz buying pizza as reliable pricing.

Mt. Gox data is different. I consider it the first reliably liquid medium for price discovery. That's why it's included in the Bitcoin Liquid Index going back to July 2010, and also why my historic count begins there.

[exstasie]

Bears made it down to $9K but not the 200-day MA. Swept half my stops and went on to new highs, typical!

I am contemplating whether these new highs are part of an irregular/expanding correction, like so:



This would line up perfectly with a test of the 200-day MA, which I expect bulls to confirm as support at some point.

I'm still in "caution mode" because I feel that $9,600-$10.5K is a very high resistance zone and we're seeing a lot of volume exchanged at these levels. I'm still planning to close the rest of my longs in the near future.

[exstasie]

I am contemplating whether these new highs are part of an irregular/expanding correction, like so:



This would line up perfectly with a test of the 200-day MA, which I expect bulls to confirm as support at some point.

Expanding on this idea a bit, here's what an expanding flat correction might look like:

I've noticed sentiment is really bearish. Everyone keeps trying to "short the top" so it's no surprise the market keeps punishing shorters and incrementally climbing higher.

Based on sentiment and short term price action, I'm still hoping for a spike near/through $10K to fill my asks. Moving manual trailing stop based on 4-hour pivots to ~ $9,500.

It's been fun longing this trend since the low $7,000s but I really want to see a more prolonged sideways correction or pullback before leveraging long again.

[exstasie]

I'm thrilled to see ETH going into beast mode. As the #1 altcoin, I think it speaks volumes about sentiment in the altcoin markets, which have the potential to suck huge amounts of BTC supply off BTC/fiat exchanges. This in turn can help drive BTC into its next bubble cycle.

Probably hitting expected resistance here, but this is a very bullish structure:



Potentially, there is a ridiculously bullish count on the monthly chart. I don't want to share it yet because it'll make me look like a bulltard. But let me just say this: ETH's stagnation over the past couple years actually positions it perfectly for huge gains in the next bubble. On top of that, the hype and economic incentives that proof-of-stake brings will create huge accumulation potential.

Anyway, back to Bitcoin. I'm unsure if we're seeing distribution, or consolidation before ripping through $10K. I'm still leaning towards a pullback. Bitmex perpetual swap rates have been consistently 0.025-0.04% the last couple days, indicating traders are heavily long.

The market is following my squiggle from the other day. Let's see if it continues to:

[exstasie]

Anyway, back to Bitcoin. I'm unsure if we're seeing distribution, or consolidation before ripping through $10K.

The market really isn't making this clear. On one hand, it's still slowly stair stepping up, so momentum on higher time frames looks incredibly strong. David is right that we may be building up to a short squeeze that punishes bears shorting the $10K area:

This kind of move in the 6-Day TF has PROLONGED the White Energy making it to the 50% level. Which means we are less likely to see a decent dip in mid February. It's more likely we see market makers put the squeeze on those intending to short $10k. That's my opinion of course. Only time will tell...

On the other hand, this move really doesn't look impulsive at this point, which still lends some credence to the expanding flat idea above. The hourly OBV is also looking sort of drippy:



xxxx123abcxxxx is also predicting a (slightly different) expanding flat correction: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53794115#msg53794115

Shorting is pretty dangerous here though. I wouldn't recommend it given what's happening on the higher time frames. I'm more focused on exiting longs and positioning myself for reentry.

At this point, staying long for the short squeeze scenario is reasonable, but I would keep stops fairly tight. Overlapping into the previous ranges (below $9,650 and especially below $9,500) would suggest a larger pullback in the works.

[oarmas]

hey guys, just a small note that your wave count may be a tad pessimistic.   I'm counting the 6425 mid December low to 9188 mid January inflection as a potential micro 1 wave and that may be too pessimistic, as well.  Taking it with a grain of salt, we are in a longer wave 3 that will end around 12k or so in about a week to 21 days, good luck with your coins!

[exstasie]

hey guys, just a small note that your wave count may be a tad pessimistic.   I'm counting the 6425 mid December low to 9188 mid January inflection as a potential micro 1 wave and that may be too pessimistic, as well.  Taking it with a grain of salt, we are in a longer wave 3 that will end around 12k or so in about a week to 21 days, good luck with your coins!

Yes, now that we've breached $10K, the proportions don't fit the irregular flat scenario. I'm considering this nested impulsive count as the preferred scenario now. A typical 1.618 extension of Wave 1 target = $12,700. Testing the 2019 highs by April appears possible now.



We're ruling out the more bearish scenarios one by one. Breaching the October 2019 pivot will help rule out this leading diagonal count. That would give some additional support to the scenario outlined above.

[exstasie]

I'm not too worried about this dip below $10K. The impulsive count outlined above will only be invalidated if the market drops below ~$9,075. Something like this would be normal before continuing to new highs:



If the market falls below the February 4th pivot ~ $9,075, that would point to this leading diagonal scenario with targets in the low $8,000s:

[LeGaulois]

To stop watching the BTC price daily during a few days is a good thing, my brain is safer

If BTC gets support on the current price then we could see a pretty nice climb. Finally, after all this time... The good thing is we're not in a FOMO period caused by the halving (yet). I think I will (try to) stop watching it for 1 week to get maybe a surprise again.
 
Unless support at $8.8k is broken we're good to go

[exstasie]

ETHBTC still on a ripper! Daily OBV is looking beautiful. I'm seeing something like this heading into Bitcoin's halving:



The yellow count is preferred for now. Better overall structure and proportions. It also projects a lot more upside.

BTC is still following the count from this post. I'm still open to a bear trap below $9,700 but as long as we remain above $9,075 I see a lot more upside coming.

[exstasie]

Already tagged the 2.618, wow! Good profit taking level if you're trading ETHBTC. The internal count suggests there may be one more sub-division, so the 3.618 is possible. Personally, I would be rolling stops up or closing longs and looking for re-entry when it's a bit safer. Profit is profit!

Taking a look at the 4-hour BTC chart:



Some bearish crossing and divergence on Godmode, combined with a drop below the 50% energy level, suggests some downward pressure in the short term is likely. I don't like the look of that wick to $10,500 either. Don't be surprised if the market meanders down to that green 20-day MA area, or stays sideways a couple more days.

[JL0]

Already tagged the 2.618, wow! Good profit taking level if you're trading ETHBTC. The internal count suggests there may be one more sub-division, so the 3.618 is possible. Personally, I would be rolling stops up or closing longs and looking for re-entry when it's a bit safer. Profit is profit!

Taking a look at the 4-hour BTC chart:



Some bearish crossing and divergence on Godmode, combined with a drop below the 50% energy level, suggests some downward pressure in the short term is likely. I don't like the look of that wick to $10,500 either. Don't be surprised if the market meanders down to that green 20-day MA area, or stays sideways a couple more days.

Thank you for your Post 

@BitcoinNewsMagazine wrote this here last time :

Pro tip for free: at some point in a bull run BTC price will touch the weekly 20 MA. Use that as a low risk entry. Takes patience, just put in your buy order and adjust.

Do you think we'll bounce off the 20MA ? If yes would this be a good sign ?

[exstasie]

Thank you for your Post 

@BitcoinNewsMagazine wrote this here last time :

Pro tip for free: at some point in a bull run BTC price will touch the weekly 20 MA. Use that as a low risk entry. Takes patience, just put in your buy order and adjust.

Do you think we'll bounce off the 20MA ? If yes would this be a good sign ?

Due to the bullish structure on the higher time frames, yes. The more important question is, when will we retest the 20-week MA?

Let's take a look at the 2019 uptrend and its relationship to that moving average:



I'm using the 140-day MA for better chart granularity, but it's ~ the same as the 20-week MA. See what happened between March and June last year? Waiting for the 20-week MA would have meant missing the entire uptrend, and then you'd be buying into a mid-term downtrend.

The daily time frame is probably more ideal for buy entries. Buying at or below the 20-day MA provided many profitable opportunities to ride last year's bull market.

[exstasie]

Short term downward pressure, mid/long term upward pressure. I'd say there's a decent chance we test the 20-day MA (currently in the low $9,600s), possibly lower. I expect the market to hold above $9,075 to keep this bullish EW count intact.

The chart is proceeding as expected. The dip came within $50 of the 20-day MA ($9,689) but I suspect we will drift a bit lower.



I don't love the proportions anymore though. They are beginning to push the limit. I may end up giving preference to a count like this, depending how strong the next wave up is:

 

[exstasie]

There's that dip to the 20-day MA:



Tough to say if we've seen the local bottom yet. The 4-hour OBV is still in the shitter, but the price action is sort of bottom-y. From a TAM perspective, this local downtrend is also running out of time. I don't really see a cliff dive from here. Overall bullish bias still intact.

[exstasie]

A buddy of mine thinks we're looking at a cup and handle pattern. He expects a pullback off this horizontal resistance, with support at the rising 200-day (orange) and 50-day (green) MAs:



Not exactly what I have in mind, but a realistic possibility. I know David is still considering a decline to the 200-day MA too.