Yet another analyst

[exstasie]

The Fed just announced unlimited QE: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-announces-a-slew-of-new-programs-to-help-markets-including-open-ended-asset-purchases.html

And the market went nuts! I wonder if this is the start of a major relief rally. S&P 500 futures are up 7% in 30 minutes. BTC up 8% over the same period, just hit $6,350. Clearly there is some correlation with stocks right now as this Corona virus thing wears on.

This $500 candle is dangerous, but the downtrend since $7K is also now in question. My stops got run at that $6K hourly pivot. I'm on the sidelines and going back to bed. New alarms set, let's see how this chart looks in a few hours.

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[dragonvslinux]

Thought you might be interested in this chart as you've been making stock market comparisons. BTC/SP1 Monthly Chart.
This is the most bullish candle I've ever seen on a monthly chart in my life. The candle body is currently 70% up from the low of the wick, it's incredible.



Doesn't mean Bitcoin's going up against fiat, but closing around current "comparative price" range would suggest BTC outperforming S&P in coming months, imo.
Regardless, TA wise: Price found incredibly strong support from the 50 Month MA with the 21 Week MA now beginning to rise again, now seen since July 2019.
Bullish  

[JayJuanGee]

The Fed just announced unlimited QE: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-announces-a-slew-of-new-programs-to-help-markets-including-open-ended-asset-purchases.html

And the market went nuts! I wonder if this is the start of a major relief rally. S&P 500 futures are up 7% in 30 minutes. BTC up 8% over the same period, just hit $6,350. Clearly there is some correlation with stocks right now as this Corona virus thing wears on.

This $500 candle is dangerous, but the downtrend since $7K is also now in question. My stops got run at that $6K hourly pivot. I'm on the sidelines and going back to bed. New alarms set, let's see how this chart looks in a few hours.

Of course, I might be a bit off topic because I remain a longer term investor who does not really attempt to make short term bets, but frequently, I do like to consider where we are at in terms of considering whether I might need to tweak my buy/sell strategy a little bit, here or there.

So, sure, in the short-term bitcoin seems to be moved by news and have some short-term correlation with dominant factors, including a pretty BIG global phenomena that is currently unfolding before our very eyes.

Yet, for longer timelines, and I hardly would concede that bitcoin has been knocked out of its bull trend, merely because of short-term severe corrections that seems to have brought bitcoin below the various current BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking and metcalfe principles. 

So, I guess what I am saying is that even if there might seem to be some ongoing short term attempts at tugging bitcoin downward based on macro uncertainties in getting the virus (and shut downs) under control, there is also the tugging up that want to put bitcoin back in line with the dominant and seemingly credible price prediction models.

I have had a kind of recent tendency, especially since May 2019-ish (when we seemed to have gotten back into the bull market), to stack my back and forth incrementalism swing trading in terms of bitcoin rather than dollars, so my idea/practice is that if the BTC price is seeming to be more likely to go up than down in the medium term (such as being in a bull market rather than a bear market), then I set my buy/sell orders in such a way that is inclined to stack profits in sats.  Of course, if I concede that we have entered into a bear rather than bull market, then I will be more accepting of stacking profits in dollars in order to prepare for more down.  I tend to not be very greedy in regards to these tweakings, it is just a practice of changing in relatively small amounts, rather than making BIG changes.

So, personally, in some recent days, I have been toying with whether I should tweak a bit more towards selling a bit more BTC when the price goes up and buying back less BTC when the price goes down in order to prepare for BIGGER possible price drops, even though I still have an overall inclination to believe that BTC's price models remain stronger than current macro happenings, and therefore, I am less inclined to believe that bitcoin is going to continue to correlate with dollar-based investments (such as stocks etc) in any kind of substantially meaningful way. 

Torn.. torn... should I tweak... should I tweak.. or just leave largely my orders as they are?  Those are the current questions/concerns bouncing around in my noggen.

[exstasie]

Thought you might be interested in this chart as you've been making stock market comparisons. BTC/SP1 Monthly Chart.
This is the most bullish candle I've ever seen on a monthly chart in my life. The candle body is currently 70% up from the low of the wick, it's incredible.

Doesn't mean Bitcoin's going up against fiat, but closing around current "comparative price" range would suggest BTC outperforming S&P in coming months, imo.

El duderino_ was bringing this up too:

Decoupling of safe havens from equities showing hints it may have begun (i.e. when BTC and Gold go bullish). We'll have more confirmation in a week.

Something to keep an eye on, but we should also keep in mind BTC dropped something like 63% from its highs, way more than the stock market. There may be an element of mean reversion at play. Where BTC fell too far too fast and then snapped back, the stock market is still grinding out lows.

I just find it curious, BTC has pumped twice with stocks on Fed-related news recently, down to the minute charts.

So, sure, in the short-term bitcoin seems to be moved by news and have some short-term correlation with dominant factors, including a pretty BIG global phenomena that is currently unfolding before our very eyes.

Yet, for longer timelines, and I hardly would concede that bitcoin has been knocked out of its bull trend, merely because of short-term severe corrections that seems to have brought bitcoin below the various current BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking and metcalfe principles. 

So, I guess what I am saying is that even if there might seem to be some ongoing short term attempts at tugging bitcoin downward based on macro uncertainties in getting the virus (and shut downs) under control, there is also the tugging up that want to put bitcoin back in line with the dominant and seemingly credible price prediction models.

I agree, but I also think those models allow for a flexible range regarding timing. Stock-to-flow doesn't imply BTC needs to see exponential gains pre-halving or directly after.

I think we are in still in the later stages of the post-2017 bear market. That doesn't necessarily imply lower lows like Masterluc and many others expect. I think it's a sideways bear market and that the main factor between BTC and the next bull market is time.

So, personally, in some recent days, I have been toying with whether I should tweak a bit more towards selling a bit more BTC when the price goes up and buying back less BTC when the price goes down in order to prepare for BIGGER possible price drops, even though I still have an overall inclination to believe that BTC's price models remain stronger than current macro happenings, and therefore, I am less inclined to believe that bitcoin is going to continue to correlate with dollar-based investments (such as stocks etc) in any kind of substantially meaningful way.

I don't think the market can drop 63% to new monthly lows and immediately spring back into a bull market. That just doesn't happen. Inevitably the market is going to test lower support levels and the resolve of holders. We've already seen an 81% bounce. We may see a spike up to R2 at the 20-day MA.

The short term is unpredictable (which is why short term trading requires well-placed stop losses) but in the mid-term I am confident we should avoid being greedy regarding expected gains. The weekly and monthly charts are in clear downtrends. Even if our long term bullish interpretations are correct, it should take some time for accumulators to retake control of the market.

[JayJuanGee]

So, sure, in the short-term bitcoin seems to be moved by news and have some short-term correlation with dominant factors, including a pretty BIG global phenomena that is currently unfolding before our very eyes.

Yet, for longer timelines, and I hardly would concede that bitcoin has been knocked out of its bull trend, merely because of short-term severe corrections that seems to have brought bitcoin below the various current BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking and metcalfe principles. 

So, I guess what I am saying is that even if there might seem to be some ongoing short term attempts at tugging bitcoin downward based on macro uncertainties in getting the virus (and shut downs) under control, there is also the tugging up that want to put bitcoin back in line with the dominant and seemingly credible price prediction models.

I agree, but I also think those models allow for a flexible range regarding timing. Stock-to-flow doesn't imply BTC needs to see exponential gains pre-halving or directly after.

I think we are in still in the later stages of the post-2017 bear market. That doesn't necessarily imply lower lows like Masterluc and many others expect. I think it's a sideways bear market and that the main factor between BTC and the next bull market is time.

Probably, we are NOT a long way apart in our assessment, even though your characterization seems to assign a bit more probability to the downside and sideways than mine, and mine seems to be more weighted towards the upside, and surely, I am NOT really arguing that anything has to even play out in a given timeframe, except for there is a bit of a design implication in bitcoin that ends up causing actual physical pressures upon the supply (new supply and existing supply) that takes place every 4 years, and sure in 2012 it only took a few months to experience upwards BTC price pressures after the halvening, but then arguably that upwards price pressure played out through the whole of 2013, and maybe was not even that different from 2016, except that in 2016, it seemed to take more than a year before the BTC price could not really be kept down any longer.

So, yeah, specific BTC price dynamics can play out in a variety of ways, including the fact that some macro factors or even internal issues within bitcoin can allow the BTC price to stay down for a longer period of time, and surely there can be some arguments, too, that the longer the BTC price is kept down beyond a kind of fair price level, the greater the upward explosion ends up playing out because of such seemingly non-sustainable price suppression. 

So, I am not exactly wedded to any specific time frame in which something has to happen, but I would give a decent amount of weight to bitcoin's design and the fact that there are going to be actual physical pressures based on such hard coded lessening of the new supply issuance rate that may or may not be sustainable if the price is pushed outside of the expected mean for too long of a period of time.. and sure of course, the mean could end up shifting down, but until there is enough solid evidence that the mean has shifted down, we cannot be assuming that it either has shifted down or that it will shift down.

So, personally, in some recent days, I have been toying with whether I should tweak a bit more towards selling a bit more BTC when the price goes up and buying back less BTC when the price goes down in order to prepare for BIGGER possible price drops, even though I still have an overall inclination to believe that BTC's price models remain stronger than current macro happenings, and therefore, I am less inclined to believe that bitcoin is going to continue to correlate with dollar-based investments (such as stocks etc) in any kind of substantially meaningful way.

I don't think the market can drop 63% to new monthly lows and immediately spring back into a bull market. That just doesn't happen.

Surely, this highlights a bit of our differing framing.  Sure, I might not subscribe to any kinds  of traditional measurements regarding what is a bear market versus a bull market, yet personally, I don't consider that the BTC market specifically to be bouncing back and forth from a bull market (let's say 2017) to a bear market (let's say 2018) to a bull market (lets say early 2019) and then back to a bear market (let's say late 2019), and yeah, you are NOT saying that either.. You are saying that we had never left the 2018 bear market, and I am saying that we did leave it, and we are merely experiencing various extended and deep corrections currently that have not taken us out of the bull market... not yet anyhow.

Inevitably the market is going to test lower support levels and the resolve of holders. We've already seen an 81% bounce. We may see a spike up to R2 at the 20-day MA.

Probably, I don't like your word, "inevitably."  I doubt that we have to have down before up (or at least not necessarily a retesting of $3,850), even though I agree that getting an 81% bounce does create a lot of incentive for short term profit taking which surely could easily result in lower $5ks, but even that testing of support is not inevitable.. especially, if we might consider that the Bitmex pushing of the 3/12 drop may have been a bit more artificial than was really sustainable or even need to be testing $3,850 again.

The short term is unpredictable (which is why short term trading requires well-placed stop losses) but in the mid-term I am confident we should avoid being greedy regarding expected gains. The weekly and monthly charts are in clear downtrends. Even if our long term bullish interpretations are correct, it should take some time for accumulators to retake control of the market.

Perhaps we are NOT too far apart on this assessment, and may be part of the reason that I bit the bullet today to 1) tweak my sell orders to be selling a bit more BTC and to 2a) both lessen the buy amounts and to 2b) cause the buy back spread to be greater (in other words having more cash to buy back lower, in the event that the BTC price goes lower than expected).  My tweaking was NOT really large, but it does make me feel a bit more comfortable because ultimately I am relatively convinced that preparing for a straight up price shooting scenario even though possible, is not really any kind of considerably probable event, especially when we already had in the ballpark of an 81% bounce from that $3,850 price, like you already mentioned. 

For me, I don't really ever bet on down, anyhow, but I just attempt to maintain a series of longs that I can tweak from time to time, and in this case, I tweaked my buy/sell orders in such a way that caused me to feel more comfortable in terms of having higher levels of cash in the event that larger than expected (from my perspective) corrections come.

[exstasie]

Inevitably the market is going to test lower support levels and the resolve of holders. We've already seen an 81% bounce. We may see a spike up to R2 at the 20-day MA.

Probably, I don't like your word, "inevitably."  I doubt that we have to have down before up (or at least not necessarily a retesting of $3,850), even though I agree that getting an 81% bounce does create a lot of incentive for short term profit taking which surely could easily result in lower $5ks, but even that testing of support is not inevitable.. especially, if we might consider that the Bitmex pushing of the 3/12 drop may have been a bit more artificial than was really sustainable or even need to be testing $3,850 again.

I don't think it was Bitmex that caused the crash. The crash was caused by massively increasingly supply:

In the last couple of days, we’ve seen a huge increase in transfers to exchanges, as traders appear to be selling in response to recent market events. Exchange inflows are 80% higher than average, which translates to about 170,000 BTC more than usual hitting markets since Monday. These heightened inflows are overwhelming the relatively illiquid Bitcoin market, causing prices to fall, which in turn leads to further inflows, causing prices to drop further.

I definitely don't think reaching $3,850 is inevitable. My entire model assumes the bottom is already in. What I'm saying is, "markets don't move in straight lines." A 63% drop creates massive, massive resistance to any move up. I do believe we are headed back to $10K in the next several months but I also believe there will be significant pullbacks along the way.

Here is one guess based on price action in 2015:

[JayJuanGee]

Inevitably the market is going to test lower support levels and the resolve of holders. We've already seen an 81% bounce. We may see a spike up to R2 at the 20-day MA.

Probably, I don't like your word, "inevitably."  I doubt that we have to have down before up (or at least not necessarily a retesting of $3,850), even though I agree that getting an 81% bounce does create a lot of incentive for short term profit taking which surely could easily result in lower $5ks, but even that testing of support is not inevitable.. especially, if we might consider that the Bitmex pushing of the 3/12 drop may have been a bit more artificial than was really sustainable or even need to be testing $3,850 again.

I don't think it was Bitmex that caused the crash. The crash was caused by massively increasingly supply:

In the last couple of days, we’ve seen a huge increase in transfers to exchanges, as traders appear to be selling in response to recent market events. Exchange inflows are 80% higher than average, which translates to about 170,000 BTC more than usual hitting markets since Monday. These heightened inflows are overwhelming the relatively illiquid Bitcoin market, causing prices to fall, which in turn leads to further inflows, causing prices to drop further.

I definitely don't think reaching $3,850 is inevitable. My entire model assumes the bottom is already in. What I'm saying is, "markets don't move in straight lines." A 63% drop creates massive, massive resistance to any move up. I do believe we are headed back to $10K in the next several months but I also believe there will be significant pullbacks along the way.

Here is one guess based on price action in 2015:

I may have framed my Bitmex emphasizing theory a bit too uni-causal, and likely my point was NOT very much about what had caused the rush down to $3,850, but instead that the $3,850 BTC price (talking bitstamp) seemed to have been a bit of an overkill of downward movement and unsustainable in any kind of meaningful way.

Accordingly, both you and I seem to tentatively conclude that it is likely NOT going to be easy to get BTC prices back down to $3,850 (even though not impossible), and likely neither of us really subscribe to any uni-causal kind of theory regarding why the BTC price went to those levels, yet in the end, each of us ends up assigning a certain kind of probability set regarding where we expect the price to go from here and how likely we expect it to go up, down or sideways.

Surely, I have increased my fiat allocation to the possibility of sub-$3,850 BTC prices in a kind of make myself feel better way, even though about two weeks ago I had assigned very low probabilities to the necessity to even make any kinds of additional preparations for sub-$3,850 levels...

Sure I was already somewhat prepared for shit hits the fan scenarios, but since the BTC price dropped so low and so fast, it largely used up a lot of my reserve fiat, so then I had to start considering, what if there is more down to come, and it is NOT like our current macro situation is actually resolved in any kind of unambiguous way, as I type this post.

Most likely, I am personally going to be fine even if my recent additional downward preparations end up being completely for naught, even though I feel a little better psychologically for having had made those additional down preparations.  It is also possible that in the future, I might find a way to recoupe some of my current extra down preparations in the event that they end up NOT being needed because some kind of opportunity might end up presenting itself in part because of my additional down preparations.

On the other hand, if BTC prices were to go shooting straight up to $20k (which seems unlikely but surely is not impossible) in spite of my recent additional down preparations, I might end up having 1% fewer bitcoins than I would have had if I had just stuck with my original and NOT employed the additional downward preparations. 

Having 1% less BTC in such a highly unlikely straight up from here scenario feels like a small price to pay for the amount of additional comfort that I feel for having had made such additional downward preparations.

[exstasie]

Is this an Adam & Eve double top? http://thepatternsite.com/aedt.html

The potential is there, given the fading bullish momentum and the reaction to the 20-day MA:



New local highs above $6,968 (Bitfinex) would invalidate this idea.

How might this fit into the big picture? This is really speculative until we see a more obvious inflection point, but:



Congress reached a deal on the $2 trillion stimulus plan: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-senate-democrats-said-to-reach-stimulus-bill-deal-11585113371

Futures markets responded with a 3% gain and tested the last daily pivot high from last Friday. I honestly can't tell if this is the beginning of a considerable suckers rally in stocks (this would be bullish for BTCUSD) or a double top. I'm concerned the market already spent its momentum on yesterday's historic gains and we will now go back to ranging or testing the lows.

[exstasie]

Still no clear inflection point, but we have a possible head fake off the 4-hour upper Bollinger Band:



Head fakes often precede breakouts in the opposite direction.

Looking for a decisive candle close below $6,500 (or above $6,900) for a breakout. We may still be building out that Adam & Eve top on the daily chart. It's really difficult to say. The market is still in a chop zone. It may be waiting for a more decisive move in the stock markets.

[exstasie]

Looking for a decisive candle close below $6,500 (or above $6,900) for a breakout. We may still be building out that Adam & Eve top on the daily chart.

That 4-hour breakout triggered and gave us a nice dump to $6K. Adam & Eve top it is:



The lower time frame downtrend looks impulsive to me. I see a local bottom here and wouldn't be surprised at a bull trap to the $6,500 area, but I expect continuation of the downtrend into the $5,000s:

[exstasie]

I would pay close attention to what happens in the US stock market here. It is very tightly correlated with BTC right now. Stocks are at a potential inflection point at the 20-day MA, with bad coronavirus and unemployment news continuing to come out:

These unemployment projections are off the charts, truly unprecedented. According to the St. Louis Fed, the unemployment rate could reach 32% (47 million workers laid off) in Q2: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/30/coronavirus-unemployment-could-top-32-47-million-lose-jobs-fed-says/5091156002/

Somehow the stock markets remain buoyant, hovering near last week's highs, even as the death and unemployment projections get worse. Are we near an inflection point, on the cusp of a bearish reversal? Or will the relief rally continue?

BTCUSD rallied with stocks and has now hit a major resistance zone. This may have been our OTE retrace before more downside, with targets in the low $5,000s or upper $4,000s:



It really depends what traditional markets do. We could also be building out a new sideways range like this:

[exstasie]

The stock market failed at the 20-day MA and 0.382 resistance zone:



Given the strong positive correlation with the stock market, it's not surprising BTC fell alongside it. We've now confirmed previous $6,500 support as resistance:



This situation is bearish unless bulls retake $6,500.

CarpeNoctom is seeing a bearish H&S pattern, and the target zone (lower $5,000s or upper $4,000s) lines up with mine. https://twitter.com/CarpeNoctom/status/1245232217615466502/photo/1

[exstasie]

We could also be building out a new sideways range like this:

With today's big bullish engulfing candle, that triangle idea is looking promising now:



I'm a little wary given the ugliness in stock markets but price action takes precedence. A retest of $7K looks within reach now. Break $7K with authority and then low $8,000s are on the table. That's where I would cap my expectations. I would be amazed if the 200-day MA doesn't smack the market down into another weekly downtrend.

[El duderino_]

Will be back in here shortly... had some very very busy RL days...

[JL0]

What you say about this there?

[exstasie]

What you say about this there?

I've had an eye on it:

CarpeNoctom is seeing a bearish H&S pattern, and the target zone (lower $5,000s or upper $4,000s) lines up with mine. https://twitter.com/CarpeNoctom/status/1245232217615466502/photo/1

If it's not officially invalidated yet, I would consider it unlikely. It's looking rather lopsided now. The red squiggle is how it should have played out, if it were going to:



If your head and shoulders look like that, you'd better see a doctor.

[exstasie]

A retest of $7K looks within reach now. Break $7K with authority and then low $8,000s are on the table. That's where I would cap my expectations. I would be amazed if the 200-day MA doesn't smack the market down into another weekly downtrend.

Not exactly the look I was hoping for. We didn't break above $7K with authority:



However, unlike the similar long-shadowed candle on March 15th, the market didn't sell off following the full retrace. I would say we can remain cautiously bullish as long as the market holds above that $6,650 pivot. Below there it begins to look like a failure, and breaking back down into that triangle range would look really bearish.

There is a cluster of daily pivots between $7,600 and $8,200 with the 50-day and 200-day MAs inside the range. That seems like a reasonable stopping point for any continued rally.

I'm noticing a pronounced change in sentiment from bearish to bullish among traders I follow. I am seeing several calls for the $9,000s now. Perpetual swap interest is still negative (short term traders are still net short) but futures spreads are turning positive. The market is not "greedy" yet but we are starting to get there. Be careful getting too bullish this late into the rally. After an 89% run during a larger downtrend, profit taking should be on the mind.

[dragonvslinux]

Currently eyeing up a short-term bearish move, but feeling mid-term still bullish, long-term neutral (until further confirmation and confluence on Weekly time-frame).

On the 1hr and 4hr charts there is a clear desending triangle forming targeting $6,250-$6,300, that would also be the support trend of the mid-term ascending triangle. This bearish short-term triangle is part of a "fake breakout" of the mid-term bullish ascending triangle I believe.  Price is struggling to find support from the 200 MA on the 4hr that's trending downwards (has a bearish posture). Clear bearish divergence on the RSI getting rejected by the bullish level of 60. CMF struggling to remain in the positive, implying selling pressure is still strong at current levels.



Zooming out looks better however. We appear to be in an ascending triangle from the recent swing lows, also arguably a bear channel (I'm considering both possibilities here), but a channel that has an upper target of the 200 Day MA around $8,150. This RSI is completely flat and neutral at 50, the CMF has bullish divergence and remains positive. Lack of confluence, but overall the Daily is leaning bullish I believe, based on indicators and the ascending triangle formation (higher lows with horizontal resistance), until proven otherwise.

Furthermore, we are currently above the 0.618 fib retracement ($6,390) from the black swan event which is a bullish sign (most dead cat bounces top out at this level), even if the 0.786 ($7,079) acts as strong resistance (that price could fail to break through for sometime).



The Weekly chart (as per usual) is the one I'm keeping an eye on. The RSI is flirting with the neutral level >40 at 43.2, but would need to close above this level on Sunday to invalidate bearish conditions, which could prove difficult based on short-term time-frame. The CMF is negative, currently lower than the capitulation drop. TD remains on a Red 6, though next week has the possibility to have a price flip to a Green 1. The 100 Week MA that previously loosely supported the price last year looks like it's starting to act as resistance as price approaches it and wicks above. It therefore seems quite likely that a re-test of the 200 Week MA would occur, confirming neutral price action, but arguably finding support from this crucial long-term support MA would be very bullish long-term in my opinion.



My mid-long term outlook would therefore be further consolidation within the trading range of 100 & 200 Week MAs until at least the halving. While it's possible price could break-out after the havling, given the current global financial situation and the need for many to raise fiat reserves, I believe the resistance level will remain as strong support for a few more months (until summer time), while at the same time the 200 Week MA (currently around $5,350) will additionally act as strong support (stronger than the resistance), that will ultimately form the new support base, confirming $3,800 as the swing low, providing the confidence for further upside for Q3 and Q4.

[/thread hijack]

[dragonvslinux]

[...] We appear to be in an ascending triangle from the recent swing lows, also arguably a bear channel (I'm considering both possibilities here), but a channel that has an upper target of the 200 Day MA around $8,150. This RSI is completely flat and neutral at 50, the CMF has bullish divergence and remains positive. Lack of confluence, but overall the Daily is leaning bullish I believe, based on indicators and the ascending triangle formation (higher lows with horizontal resistance), until proven otherwise.

Furthermore, we are currently above the 0.618 fib retracement ($6,390) from the black swan event which is a bullish sign (most dead cat bounces top out at this level), even if the 0.786 ($7,079) acts as strong resistance (that price could fail to break through for sometime).

Looking good  Here's a target for that ascending triangle:

[exstasie]

I would say we can remain cautiously bullish as long as the market holds above that $6,650 pivot.

The pivot held nicely over the weekend and we retained bullish bias. Stock market futures gapped up Sunday and hit the upside limit Monday. BTC moving in lockstep with stocks, both now hovering at their last local highs:





Anyone ignoring this correlation needs to have their head examined. When stock markets are closed, BTC moves have zero follow-through. When the markets are open, BTC follows stocks. Stocks are currently breaking above their late March double tops, so we could see significant upside in the coming week as trapped sellers and shorters get squeezed. The same goes for BTC.

I still stand by what I said in this post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54149908#msg54149908

I'm seeing more and more calls from bulls expecting the $9,000s or $10K. I personally don't think the 200-day MA and March pivots in the low $8,000s will be so easy to surpass. It feels like bulls are beginning to get greedy. Shorts are being squeezed now, but it feels like we're trapping bulls for later.

And there goes another one right in my thread:

Looking good  Here's a target for that ascending triangle: