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Author Topic: Yet another analyst  (Read 8053 times)
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exstasie
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June 04, 2020, 08:19:51 PM
Last edit: June 04, 2020, 08:43:34 PM by exstasie
Merited by El duderino_ (3), JayJuanGee (1)
 #261

As of now, we have not quite gotten below $9k, so I am not one to give up hope, in regards to support until after it already breaks and other peeps are saying: "I told you so" to me, which is fine.  I don't really mind a few downward corrections along the way to greater richie status.  By the way, for me, I was able to use our move up to $10,407 as a way to rebalance my books in a few ways that are likely to have been a lot less painful than if we had gone down from our mid-$9ks from yesterday.. so up before down is definitely working for me, personally... and at the same time.. so far, we are largely up before sideways.. but sure, we could get some down from here, too (outside of those wee downward spikes that we saw to $9,135-ish, so far in the past hours)..

The lack of downward follow through in BTCUSD is interesting. Large cap alts like XLM and ADA have also risen against BTC, and have pumped to new highs against USD, so the market appears to be buoyant despite the short term failure off $10.4K.

As long as the daily range holds, and especially if we keep forming higher lows above that June 2nd bottom ($9,270 Coinbase) this is beginning to look bullish to me. Bears aren't bringing any momentum and price is just floating back up.

Levels of interest:
  • $10.5K (obviously)
  • Below $8,630 pivot = significant lower low

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June 07, 2020, 05:39:25 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)
 #262

I've seen again people telling the bull run is starting.
https://mobile.twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1267214325661433856
I'm not convinced it's meaningful or just babble.

If so, the lack of downward movement would maybe make sense.

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June 08, 2020, 10:12:27 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #263

As of now, we have not quite gotten below $9k, so I am not one to give up hope, in regards to support until after it already breaks and other peeps are saying: "I told you so" to me, which is fine.  I don't really mind a few downward corrections along the way to greater richie status.  By the way, for me, I was able to use our move up to $10,407 as a way to rebalance my books in a few ways that are likely to have been a lot less painful than if we had gone down from our mid-$9ks from yesterday.. so up before down is definitely working for me, personally... and at the same time.. so far, we are largely up before sideways.. but sure, we could get some down from here, too (outside of those wee downward spikes that we saw to $9,135-ish, so far in the past hours)..

The lack of downward follow through in BTCUSD is interesting. Large cap alts like XLM and ADA have also risen against BTC, and have pumped to new highs against USD, so the market appears to be buoyant despite the short term failure off $10.4K.

As long as the daily range holds, and especially if we keep forming higher lows above that June 2nd bottom ($9,270 Coinbase) this is beginning to look bullish to me. Bears aren't bringing any momentum and price is just floating back up.

Levels of interest:
  • $10.5K (obviously)
  • Below $8,630 pivot = significant lower low

Feeling a bit more bullish now then?

I noticed last night we found the key support we needed on the 4hr. Despite a lot of fear & doubt leading upto the Weekly close that was (and did) signal a TD 9 Sell (see quote below for thoughts), we were supported by the 100 & 200 Day MAs, the local volume point of control at $9,509, as well as the mid-level support of the current bull flag structure:



I agree that longer-term without breaking through $10.5K we are still below key resistance, as well as now re-testing the (purple) long-term bull trend channel (that could flip to resistance), but last nights short-term bear trap does give me a bullish bias around 60-40. If we can get above $10K again then this would move to 70-30 for me. Thoughts?

My Weekly perspective can be found here:

So the week came to an end with price closing at $9,754, above the 1 Year VPVR point of control at $9,704, as well as creating a new closing high since February:



I was on the fence before, with a slight 60-40 bullish bias, which for me has confirmed given the Weekly close. Price could breakdown, but yesterdays candle appears to have found the support it needed to close bullish, as opposed to shooting star style bearish. The TD 9 Sell signal is of little concern to me or others it seems, based on the previous two times this signal appeared. The fact that we price has traded more around $9,500 in recent months, than the $7/8K previous point of control range, is more significant to me:



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June 08, 2020, 11:06:17 PM
Merited by dragonvslinux (1)
 #264

I agree that longer-term without breaking through $10.5K we are still below key resistance, as well as now re-testing the (purple) long-term bull trend channel (that could flip to resistance), but last nights short-term bear trap does give me a bullish bias around 60-40. If we can get above $10K again then this would move to 70-30 for me. Thoughts?

I'm thinking along similarly lines myself. I'd like to see that high volume dump candle on June 2nd fully retraced (~$10,200) before getting too excited. That would get us back above the daily upper BB as well.

I'm slightly concerned about sentiment and commitment of traders:

Almost everybody is predicting a bull run now. Mainstream investment analysts (Bloomberg, Tudor Investments), crypto fundamental analysts (Blockfyre, Willy Woo, PlanB), technical analysts (Masterluc, dmwardjr).

Even Bossian, our resident perma bear, is now predicting a rally to $11,795! https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254070.0

Everyone is bullish. Longs are rising, shorts are falling. This makes me nervous. I believe in maximum pain theory, the idea that price tends to move where it will cause the most financial pain for the most traders. More and more it looks like a crash would bring maximum pain, not a rally. Lips sealed

Here is a look at longs vs. shorts on Bitfinex. Not many shorts to squeeze:


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June 10, 2020, 10:38:43 PM
 #265

Interesting candles:



Bears keep smacking price down with these high volume selloffs at resistance, but the market keeps floating back up each time. 4-hour OBV was looking bearish for a while but is now perking up very nicely after this last rebound.

Seen plenty of BTC charts that curve into an upside breakout off this sort of price action. Previous comments about range still apply but it definitely feels bullish......

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June 10, 2020, 10:57:00 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #266

I'm starting to see this as a bullish ascending triangle (better late than never). I've been looking at this consolidation pattern as a bull flag for weeks now, but given the strong rejections from the horizontal resistance, as well as wicking down close to the upwards trending support, it's starting to resemble one for me again. There is the obvious head fake that invalidates this pattern, as well as an "unclean" upwards trending support, but it feels very relevant again none the less:



While the measured move target of 23% would put BTC at around $12.3K, the $ move to around $11,869 seems more realistic to me. Especially given the imperfection of this pattern. The yellow box at the end of 66 bars would otherwise be the anticipated breakout zone, with 75% of the triangle completed. A breakout is imminent it seems.

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June 11, 2020, 07:08:54 AM
 #267

I'm starting to see this as a bullish ascending triangle (better late than never). I've been looking at this consolidation pattern as a bull flag for weeks now, but given the strong rejections from the horizontal resistance, as well as wicking down close to the upwards trending support, it's starting to resemble one for me again.

It could also be seen as a rising wedge, which BTC actually loves to break upwards from.

I tend to view patterns like this in EW terms, so I don't see a triangle per se but it doesn't really matter I guess. The same principles apply as any other range breakout.

While the measured move target of 23% would put BTC at around $12.3K, the $ move to around $11,869 seems more realistic to me.

Anything in that range sounds realistic to me. Monthly pivot high at $12.3K. After this length of consolidation I wouldn't even rule out a wick near the $13.2K monthly pivot. I assume bears will make their last stand in that area, if not earlier.

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June 11, 2020, 08:33:40 AM
 #268

While the measured move target of 23% would put BTC at around $12.3K, the $ move to around $11,869 seems more realistic to me.

Anything in that range sounds realistic to me. Monthly pivot high at $12.3K. After this length of consolidation I wouldn't even rule out a wick near the $13.2K monthly pivot. I assume bears will make their last stand in that area, if not earlier.

It may worth mentioning that we kinda have historically a high somewhere in the summer.
In 2017 it was at the end of August, in 2018 it was in in July and in 2019 (an AYH) in June.

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June 11, 2020, 11:16:10 AM
 #269

I'm starting to see this as a bullish ascending triangle (better late than never). I've been looking at this consolidation pattern as a bull flag for weeks now, but given the strong rejections from the horizontal resistance, as well as wicking down close to the upwards trending support, it's starting to resemble one for me again.

It could also be seen as a rising wedge, which BTC actually loves to break upwards from.

Yes you're probably right. I wanted to avoid looking at this as a rising wedge, as for me it would suggest a bearish bias, but given how the upwards sloping resistance isn't very steep, I'd therefore be able to argue that the bearish bias isn't very strong. My main reservation would be that there are only two clusters of touch-points at resistance however, this is probably why I feel more comfortable seeing it as an imperfect ascending triange that satisfies my needs better of a confirmed pattern Wink



I tend to view patterns like this in EW terms, so I don't see a triangle per se but it doesn't really matter I guess. The same principles apply as any other range breakout.

Indeed. Whether I see this as a bull flag still, descending triangle or rising wedge is far less relevant than price breaking out of this range to confirm a direction.

While the measured move target of 23% would put BTC at around $12.3K, the $ move to around $11,869 seems more realistic to me.

Anything in that range sounds realistic to me. Monthly pivot high at $12.3K. After this length of consolidation I wouldn't even rule out a wick near the $13.2K monthly pivot. I assume bears will make their last stand in that area, if not earlier.

That's good to know  Cool

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June 12, 2020, 06:55:54 PM
 #270

Are we seeing a return to correlated BTC and stock markets? SPX and BTC both with 6% drops yesterday:





On BTC: Still higher lows in terms of the larger structure, still inside the range, but no immediate bullish retrace of the dump and hitting resistance at the daily BB basis. Bears are back in the game but they need to take out $8,600 in order to sweep stops and to have a hope of building out a bearish mid-term trend.

Watching stocks closely now. Strong spikes in volatility like this are often mid-term bearish.

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June 12, 2020, 07:06:27 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #271

Don't like this stocks/btc correlation at all as stocks are up for one hell of a beating.
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June 13, 2020, 10:43:40 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #272

Don't like this stocks/btc correlation at all as stocks are up for one hell of a beating.

Good chance of that, yep. A V-bottom recovery to sustained ATHs like after the 1987 stock market crash is still technically possible but I don't think the underlying fundamentals support that at all.

I believe VIX will tell the story:



The Friday session closed strongly in stocks, leaving that bearish gravestone candle on VIX, which also closed below the upper BB. It's possible we're building out another scenario like inside the yellow ellipse, which would mean one more weak leg up in stocks before a significant crash.

What that spells for BTC exactly, I'm not sure. It could mean continued sub-$10.5K ranging until that crash comes, which is what happened the last time stocks broke upward.

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June 15, 2020, 07:14:45 AM
 #273

This is a make or break moment:



As you can see, closing above/below the 50-day MA (currently $9,284 Coinbase) has consistently defined the mid-term trend. The daily Bollinger Bands have tightened considerably as well, with the lower BB at $9,060.....so we're on the verge of a major breakdown.

Closing the day like this would be pretty bearish. If bulls can wick this up and close the day at $9,300+ it begins to look like a head fake.

BTC moving in lockstep with stocks again. S&P 500 futures full retracing the June rally, back to mid-May levels, really ugly stuff:


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June 15, 2020, 02:29:28 PM
 #274

This is a make or break moment:

Closing the day like this would be pretty bearish. If bulls can wick this up and close the day at $9,300+ it begins to look like a head fake.

It's worth noting that higher lows are still in tact right now. Holding $9K (but failing to close above $9.3K) would merely put me back on the fence, but I see the bearish argument here:

4hr bear flag has played out by the looks of it, but notably still within an ascending triangle pattern after re-alligning with the new lows forming. The new lows formed on the 4hr chart look suspiciously like a short-term bear trap, if price can stay above $9K and close the day above the 50 Day MA at $9.3K to re-test $9.5K levels.



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June 16, 2020, 07:48:58 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), NeuroticFish (1)
 #275

If bulls can wick this up and close the day at $9,300+ it begins to look like a head fake.

Head fake it is. Very nice recovery from the lows, comfortably above the lower daily band and the 50-day MA. Early bears trapped again, and the game of ping pong continues. Those bands are getting tighter and tighter:



Unsurprisingly, the move coincided with a recovery in the stock market:



The FED just announced they'll start buying a portfolio of corporate bonds, across the entire market. The market is loving it. Trying to fight the FED turns out to be a loser's game yet again.

Stocks rally on Fed's plan to buy individual corporate bonds

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June 16, 2020, 11:26:22 AM
 #276

@exstasie oh there's plenty more where that Fed stash came from too, and they can keep this up all the way til November elections too, mind you, and I'm still certain we'll see more stimulus-like bills being passed, if not within that period, even next year when the economic contractions will really be felt.

Central bank where I am just put out its most optimistic prediction of a 5-year wipeout of growth, with this year's repercussions to dwarf the 2009 period. A middleground prediction sees 15% immediate drop when housing bubble bursts. Worst-case scenario sees 30% killrate on businesses... not sure if Fed will put out such dire numbers, or if they will allow it. What I'm even more unsure of is how all that will affect Bitcoin.

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June 17, 2020, 11:13:16 PM
 #277

@exstasie oh there's plenty more where that Fed stash came from too, and they can keep this up all the way til November elections too, mind you, and I'm still certain we'll see more stimulus-like bills being passed, if not within that period, even next year when the economic contractions will really be felt.

Buying corporate debt though? Unprecedented. That's the crazy thing about this crisis: you never know if the Fed is willing to keep upping the ante. At this rate they'll be buying stocks directly by year end!

The stock market is no better than shitcoins now. It just pumps and dumps based on Fed news. The money printer meme even feels like it was modeled after the Tether printer meme. Tongue

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June 18, 2020, 05:47:56 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)
 #278

@exstasie oh there's plenty more where that Fed stash came from too, and they can keep this up all the way til November elections too, mind you, and I'm still certain we'll see more stimulus-like bills being passed, if not within that period, even next year when the economic contractions will really be felt.

Buying corporate debt though? Unprecedented. That's the crazy thing about this crisis: you never know if the Fed is willing to keep upping the ante. At this rate they'll be buying stocks directly by year end!

The stock market is no better than shitcoins now. It just pumps and dumps based on Fed news. The money printer meme even feels like it was modeled after the Tether printer meme. Tongue

They've managed to just exceed every single expectation we've had of them. Promising unlimited printing, corporate bonds cause ETFs just aren't sexy enough, putting cash in people's hands (and I do support some aspects of UBI but really when you see a records broken in retail spending and casinos then you know that's really not well-spent stimulus), no concerns at all for their incredible balance sheet which isn't done fattening etc. Like you said, nothing will surprise us anymore.

Wonder what's in store for today's speech!

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June 28, 2020, 07:20:32 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #279

The chart looks a bit worrisome for bulls. Barely managing to stay inside the daily Bollinger Bands and now clearly trending below the 50-day MA:



Grinding the lower band like that is an ugly look. I was hoping for a more robust bounce after undercutting the lows like that. You can see a very similar move in the opposite direction on April 23-25th, where price wicked above the upper band for a few days before finally exploding upwards.

The good news: No closes below the lower BB, no squeeze triggered. We are also still well above the $8,630 pivot which as I've said before is a very important structural level. This dip also occurred while the stock market and futures were closed, which may explain the lack of follow through. If stocks open upwards this week, BTC will likely follow as usual.

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July 01, 2020, 05:54:02 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #280

The good news: No closes below the lower BB, no squeeze triggered. We are also still well above the $8,630 pivot which as I've said before is a very important structural level. This dip also occurred while the stock market and futures were closed, which may explain the lack of follow through. If stocks open upwards this week, BTC will likely follow as usual.

More of the same. Stocks up, BTC up. And the game of ping pong continues.....





Looking at the daily SPX chart, the market is close to printing a three white soldiers pattern. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_white_soldiers.asp

After that reaction to last week's selloff attempt, I wouldn't be surprised at new local highs in the stock market over the next couple weeks. If so I think BTC will grind upwards alongside it but there's a good chance BTC will also stay stuck within its 2-month range.

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