Yet another analyst

[NeuroticFish]

I've just read that

$BTC OV loaded back up to levels not seen since March 16

and that this means a big move (in either direction) is imminent. Is this a good indicator? What direction do you expect (based on other indicators)?

[exstasie]

I've just read that

$BTC OV loaded back up to levels not seen since March 16

and that this means a big move (in either direction) is imminent. Is this a good indicator?

I prefer to look at open interest. Open value = open interest calculated in satoshis.

The chart is sort of cherry picked since if you look to the left, OI or OV were much higher prior to the March crash. Being at the same levels as late March isn't particularly meaningful to me.

What direction do you expect (based on other indicators)?

I'm still neutral. No point having a bias when we're in such a tight, stubborn range. The breakout, when it comes, will be very powerful and should provide a solid trend to trade.

[Tzupy]

Daily PSAR has flipped to bullish, and daily MACD looks about to cross into positive soon.

[exstasie]

Daily PSAR has flipped to bullish, and daily MACD looks about to cross into positive soon.

Yes, the technicals look bullish.

Stocks pushed new local highs today, rejecting the possibility of a double top in the S&P 500. BTC followed like the sheep that it is. The daily BTCUSD candle is printing a clear range expansion above the previous 1.5 week range.

My gut is telling me we just experienced an important shakeout. It's too early to call since it's still all lower highs since $10.4K, but I think the stock market is set for a rally similar to late May. That obviously sets the stage for a rally in BTC, at least to the upper end of the range.

I'm still unexcited until $10.5K is actually broken. We've been waiting 2.5 months for that to happen.

[exstasie]

My gut is telling me we just experienced an important shakeout. It's too early to call since it's still all lower highs since $10.4K, but I think the stock market is set for a rally similar to late May. That obviously sets the stage for a rally in BTC, at least to the upper end of the range.

I'm still unexcited until $10.5K is actually broken. We've been waiting 2.5 months for that to happen.

Boom, important shakeout indeed! There's a spike through $10K on good volume:



I would remain cautious given that it's the weekend and that futures are closed. Wouldn't be surprised to see the market come back and fill that gap (futures closed at $9,615 on Friday).

But overall, bullish technicals are bullish. Not much else to say until bulls make it official and hold above $10.5K.

[exstasie]

There you have it, the first structural higher high since October 2019:



That's confirmation for me that the 2019-2020 bear market is over.

Short term, I would expect minimum $12K on this thrust. I still think that CME gap in the $9,600s will probably end up getting filled (or at least a test of the $10K area to confirm it as support) but perhaps not until after short squeezing higher first.

[exstasie]

I think we're in a Wave 5. Hard to have a concrete target since BTC sometimes has really strong blow off tops. A typical Wave 5 would likely end inside that pivot resistance range:



Working internal count:



The 0.382 would be a typical retracement for Wave iv. A dip back to $10.5K looks like a buy. Whether or not that dip comes, I am still expecting a push into the $12K-$14K range.

[exstasie]

Got our push above $12K, and in came the bears with a high volume selloff! Two possible internal counts:



That kind of selloff often indicates a higher degree top, represented by the yellow count. In EW terms, a typical Wave II retracement from here would call for the $7K-$8K area, although I'm honestly skeptical we'll go that deep.

The orange count says the whipsaw we just experienced was an expanding flat, with one more leg up into the $12,000s+ to come.

I thought these were worth sharing. Two diametrically opposing charts from two fellow EW analysts I respect a lot, Masterluc and xxxx123abcxxxx:

[STT]

Calling for 27k based on last few months recovery is a stretch too far, he must have greater reasoning then that.    Theres resistance to pushing up so high, think of the total market capitalisation to BTC and all that potential supply onto the rest of the worlds markets, for crypto to be that large so soon this year does seem unlikely.  [Could be in a lockdown theres a pressure cooker effect but I think people have enough things to spend their money on tbh]
   What propels prices up so high and why it can be so brief is a large amount of momentum that swings us into a movement upwards, there is always a gravity and selling that'll occur but if its overwhelmed then we get these grand prices.   Theres a structure to the movement usually like a trebuchet or some release of energy and focus, its going to accumulate that pressure over more then a few months and I'd guess he has another chart for that over years.

[exstasie]

Calling for 27k based on last few months recovery is a stretch too far, he must have greater reasoning then that.

Once $20K breaks, I expect a parabolic run that goes much further than $27K myself.

I'm not sure about the timing aspect. I'm envisioning something a bit slower and steadier than him, like 2016. We'll see!

Theres resistance to pushing up so high, think of the total market capitalisation to BTC and all that potential supply onto the rest of the worlds markets, for crypto to be that large so soon this year does seem unlikely.

What does market cap have to do with it?

[JL0]

Hi exstasie,

do we need to fill that gap at $9600 ? Is it Important ? Masterluc said that $10K will hold if not his Idea is shit. What you think ?

[exstasie]

Hi exstasie,

do we need to fill that gap at $9600 ? Is it Important ? Masterluc said that $10K will hold if not his Idea is shit. What you think ?

When he says $10K, he probably means the $10K area.

In my eyes, a test of $10K and a wick to $9,600 could easily be part of the same move. It's impossible to pinpoint the exact bottom.

I'm not as obsessed with the gap fill theory as some people. We don't need to fill the gap. But it would be a typical target on a correction to the March-August rally. Nobody should be surprised to see it filled, although I don't think price will necessarily stay there for long. Like Masterluc, I expect the $10K area to hold. Any foray into the $9,000s will probably be strictly an intraday affair.

[JL0]

Hi exstasie,

do we need to fill that gap at $9600 ? Is it Important ? Masterluc said that $10K will hold if not his Idea is shit. What you think ?

When he says $10K, he probably means the $10K area.

In my eyes, a test of $10K and a wick to $9,600 could easily be part of the same move. It's impossible to pinpoint the exact bottom.

I'm not as obsessed with the gap fill theory as some people. We don't need to fill the gap. But it would be a typical target on a correction to the March-August rally. Nobody should be surprised to see it filled, although I don't think price will necessarily stay there for long. Like Masterluc, I expect the $10K area to hold. Any foray into the $9,000s will probably be strictly an intraday affair.

Thank you

[exstasie]

I think the last two weeks of consolidation was a local Wave 4. Here's a look at how the count has progressed so far:



Lower degree count:



That puts us in (iii) of v. Typically there should still be significant upside from here, $13K-$15K maybe. Be ready for a very harsh pullback afterwards though, like June-August 2016, January 2017, or March 2017.

[exstasie]

Weekly spinning top doji is inconclusive, indecisive. A similar doji in February off the upper BB obviously kicked off a huge crash, but that's certainly not guaranteed this time. I'm hoping this next weekly candle will give some indication.

The lower degree count from last week's post was invalidated, but it's still possible we are in the same higher degree Wave 5. I can't tell yet if the thrust to $12K+ was the entire Wave 5, or if it's sub-dividing and we have yet to see a local wave (iii). I'll share a new count when things become a bit more clear.

TL;DR it will go up or down. Be prepared to buy a dip to $9K. Something like January 2016 (a dip to the 0.382-0.5) looks possible.

[exstasie]

Just waiting to see which way this daily BB squeeze breaks:



It should bring a significant move. Bulls held the daily close yesterday, just barely.

Ping pong, ping pong!



This is an excellent example of why you should 1) wait for a high time frame candle close before assuming a breakout has occured, and 2) wait for a pivot or BB breakout. Selling and shorting diagonal trend line breaks is often a great way to get trapped when price floats back into the range, as it has the last 2-3 days. Horizontal S/R is what really matters.

And we wait......

[exstasie]

Very ugly daily price action. This big bearish engulfing built out the right shoulder of a potential H&S:



Still holding the daily BB squeeze though.



Time to pay attention. We could see another rejection of the bears and grind back up. All this time spent in the lower half of the bands and the stiff rejection today have me leaning towards the bearish scenario though.

Holding below the lower band around $11,200 and the $11,100 pivot low will signal a downtrend.

I could see a daily downtrend running to the weekly BB basis in the upper $9,000s, or filling the weekly CME gap around $9,600.

[naikturun]

Very ugly daily price action. This big bearish engulfing built out the right shoulder of a potential H&S:



Still holding the daily BB squeeze though.



Time to pay attention. We could see another rejection of the bears and grind back up. All this time spent in the lower half of the bands and the stiff rejection today have me leaning towards the bearish scenario though.

Holding below the lower band around $11,200 and the $11,100 pivot low will signal a downtrend.

I could see a daily downtrend running to the weekly BB basis in the upper $9,000s, or filling the weekly CME gap around $9,600.

do you mean that this week it will drop to 9600? hmm, I did see a very fast decline last night where all the alt also fell, some even fell above 15% in just a few minutes.
but a few minutes after the btc dropped to 11000 right, then it went back up and stayed in the range 11200-11,500.

[exstasie]

do you mean that this week it will drop to 9600? hmm, I did see a very fast decline last night where all the alt also fell, some even fell above 15% in just a few minutes.
but a few minutes after the btc dropped to 11000 right, then it went back up and stayed in the range 11200-11,500.

No, I don't mean that.

I'm looking for an obvious breakout. Breaking and closing below $11,100 should do it. After that, I'd be looking for $9,600.

Yesterday's ~$1,000 dump brought us to the lower bounds of the range, but BTC is technically still just ranging. Don't want to jump the gun here.

[exstasie]

Time to pay attention. We could see another rejection of the bears and grind back up. All this time spent in the lower half of the bands and the stiff rejection today have me leaning towards the bearish scenario though.

Holding below the lower band around $11,200 and the $11,100 pivot low will signal a downtrend.

I could see a daily downtrend running to the weekly BB basis in the upper $9,000s, or filling the weekly CME gap around $9,600.

Well there you have it, a very unambiguous breakdown! Minutes from the close, that is one bloody candle:



Hopefully bulls had sensible stops below $11,200 or $11,100 because that was one heck of a waterfall!

A new downtrend on the daily chart has obviously been triggered. Filling the $9,600 CME gap looks very likely now. There is a nice low volume notch to fill in that area too. Could go further than the mid-$9,000s but it is a very interesting support zone that could serve as a final stopping point.

The hourly chart tells me we may have seen a local bottom at $10K because of the volume extreme and potential momentum divergence. I think we may have completed (or be near completion of) a local bearish Wave 3. I could see the market grinding back up to the 0.382 and pivot resistance around $10.7-$10.8K but I would expect a return to the lows and likely further.