Yet another analyst

[exstasie]

I'm not overly concerned with this short term price action. There will be much better short term opportunities once this bull market goes truly exponential above the old ATH. And once we get our first deep shakeout, we can also look for much safer long term long entries too.

Everything here is pretty touch and go, tight stops.

I remember a lot of long term long entries in the past 3 years.. probably too many to list  --- that is part of the point of long term, it ends up playing out.  Of course, in the past 3 years, it is likely that cash has come in from income, so cash that is available now might not have been available in the past 3 years.

I don't really discuss buying and holding as an investment in this thread. If you want my opinion, BTC is fine to buy and hold at any price with a long term investment window (years) in mind. 90% of my coins are in long term cold storage for this reason. What I am concerned with in this thread is short-term and mid-term (weeks and months) price action. I am looking to ride intermediate price trends and hedge volatility.

In contrast to long term investment, the key to successful trading isn't about being right or wrong per se. It's about maximizing gains when you're right, and minimizing losses when you're wrong.

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[JayJuanGee]

I'm not overly concerned with this short term price action. There will be much better short term opportunities once this bull market goes truly exponential above the old ATH. And once we get our first deep shakeout, we can also look for much safer long term long entries too.

Everything here is pretty touch and go, tight stops.

I remember a lot of long term long entries in the past 3 years.. probably too many to list  --- that is part of the point of long term, it ends up playing out.  Of course, in the past 3 years, it is likely that cash has come in from income, so cash that is available now might not have been available in the past 3 years.

I don't really discuss buying and holding as an investment in this thread. If you want my opinion, BTC is fine to buy and hold at any price with a long term investment window (years) in mind. 90% of my coins are in long term cold storage for this reason. What I am concerned with in this thread is short-term and mid-term (weeks and months) price action. I am looking to ride intermediate price trends and hedge volatility.

In contrast to long term investment, the key to successful trading isn't about being right or wrong per se. It's about maximizing gains when you're right, and minimizing losses when you're wrong.

You did mention a long term entry for a long.. so that surely inspired my post... but sure, fair enough, I had already gathered your attempts to identify short to medium term trends.. so if we stay in a kind of $17k to $18,200 range for a week or two, you might start to be able to identify signs of which way we might break out?  Currently, it seems more inclined towards UP.. but surely I understand that since we had so much UP since early September, without any kinds of meaningful corrections, there could be some desires to change the direction that still seems to be kind of inclining towards up.. but I suppose you might be able to figure out some changes in the sentiment that go beyond merely seeing a wick or two that helps to identify the next leg thereafter.

[exstasie]

I don't really discuss buying and holding as an investment in this thread. If you want my opinion, BTC is fine to buy and hold at any price with a long term investment window (years) in mind. 90% of my coins are in long term cold storage for this reason. What I am concerned with in this thread is short-term and mid-term (weeks and months) price action. I am looking to ride intermediate price trends and hedge volatility.

In contrast to long term investment, the key to successful trading isn't about being right or wrong per se. It's about maximizing gains when you're right, and minimizing losses when you're wrong.

You did mention a long term entry for a long.. so that surely inspired my post... but sure, fair enough, I had already gathered your attempts to identify short to medium term trends.. so if we stay in a kind of $17k to $18,200 range for a week or two, you might start to be able to identify signs of which way we might break out?  Currently, it seems more inclined towards UP.. but surely I understand that since we had so much UP since early September, without any kinds of meaningful corrections, there could be some desires to change the direction that still seems to be kind of inclining towards up.. but I suppose you might be able to figure out some changes in the sentiment that go beyond merely seeing a wick or two that helps to identify the next leg thereafter.

Time frames are always cause for confusion.

Right now, my short terms longs have tight stop losses based on the hourly chart. Lower lows below the $17,300 area will run my stops and leave me back on the sidelines. Longer term entries refer to the daily or weekly time frames. Those are the time frames where I'm looking for eventual 30-40% bull market corrections. After such a shakeout has occurred, it's safe to start rebuilding long positions (with significantly wider stops) that I would intend to hold for weeks afterwards.

The trend is strongly up, to be sure. However, the further up we go without a deep correction the more likely one becomes, hence tight stop losses and no intention of opening long term positions until it does.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't really discuss buying and holding as an investment in this thread. If you want my opinion, BTC is fine to buy and hold at any price with a long term investment window (years) in mind. 90% of my coins are in long term cold storage for this reason. What I am concerned with in this thread is short-term and mid-term (weeks and months) price action. I am looking to ride intermediate price trends and hedge volatility.

In contrast to long term investment, the key to successful trading isn't about being right or wrong per se. It's about maximizing gains when you're right, and minimizing losses when you're wrong.

You did mention a long term entry for a long.. so that surely inspired my post... but sure, fair enough, I had already gathered your attempts to identify short to medium term trends.. so if we stay in a kind of $17k to $18,200 range for a week or two, you might start to be able to identify signs of which way we might break out?  Currently, it seems more inclined towards UP.. but surely I understand that since we had so much UP since early September, without any kinds of meaningful corrections, there could be some desires to change the direction that still seems to be kind of inclining towards up.. but I suppose you might be able to figure out some changes in the sentiment that go beyond merely seeing a wick or two that helps to identify the next leg thereafter.

Time frames are always cause for confusion.

Right now, my short terms longs have tight stop losses based on the hourly chart. Lower lows below the $17,300 area will run my stops and leave me back on the sidelines.

I know that exchanges vary in terms of where they move, but we had several of them that already had breaches below $17,300 a few days ago.. but maybe that was before you placed your orders?

Longer term entries refer to the daily or weekly time frames. Those are the time frames where I'm looking for eventual 30-40% bull market corrections. After such a shakeout has occurred, it's safe to start rebuilding long positions (with significantly wider stops) that I would intend to hold for weeks afterwards.

O.k.  fair enough.. you used the term long term, but you were referring to the plays that are based on daily and weekly charts.

The trend is strongly up, to be sure. However, the further up we go without a deep correction the more likely one becomes, hence tight stop losses and no intention of opening long term positions until it does.

Yep.. I suppose that the correction from $12k to sub $10k could have been profitable for you, but I have not really seen any meaningful corrections since then... Maybe two (since early September) that were in the quickie 5% to 8% arena.. but might be difficult to profit from those.

[exstasie]

I know that exchanges vary in terms of where they move, but we had several of them that already had breaches below $17,300 a few days ago..

I'm referring to the hourly chart, which has established a series of higher lows since the shakeout off $18.5K. If the lows at $17,356 and certainly $17,275 (Coinbase) are breached, I no longer want any long exposure to BTC until I see a new trading setup.

I'm using a manual trailing stop system. As new lows are established, I roll my stop losses up.

Yep.. I suppose that the correction from $12k to sub $10k could have been profitable for you, but I have not really seen any meaningful corrections since then... Maybe two (since early September) that were in the quickie 5% to 8% arena.. but might be difficult to profit from those.

Just to be clear, I'm not really trying to predict the top, nor am I trying to sell coins and rebuy lower. I'm riding leveraged long positions with BTC collateral, taking profits, and speculating about where and when to reenter.

Now that short term gains are getting pretty extreme and sentiment feels rather greedy, it's a time to be cautious about long exposure. It's not prudent to hold leveraged longs (without tight stop losses) when 20, 30, 40% corrections are likely around the corner.

[dragonvslinux]

Short term, it looks like a bullish triangle to me:

This is one of those (few) moments where I disagree. Ignoring the candle wicks (that I usually do), then the bodies show more of a descending triangle imo, with a rough target to $17K (-3%) if broken.

Looks like neither now, just a whipsaw.

I'm not overly concerned with this short term price action. There will be much better short term opportunities once this bull market goes truly exponential above the old ATH. And once we get our first deep shakeout, we can also look for much safer long term long entries too.

Everything here is pretty touch and go, tight stops.

Haha yeh, realise we were both wrong too 



Looks more like a bull flag at best, or simply just bullish consolidation near the highs. As you said, the short-term price action isn't so relevant right now, compared to the broader picture right now. Am personally looking forward to the shakeout to come, when people start to get very panicked, I'll be looking to buy the dip once again.

[exstasie]

New highs. Continuing to roll stops up on hourly longs. Controlling pivot is ~ $17,700 now, and after another leg up, onto the blue pivot under $18,200. Lock in those profits.....



Watching ETHBTC closely. Bullish engulfing on the daily chart, looks like a spring......very important in Wyckoff analysis. The weekly looks like it wants to hold onto this bullish trend:



Potential bottoming action like this vs. BTC even as BTCUSD pushes new highs tells me that a reversal is not so far off. Very interested to see if a significant BTCUSD shakeout coincides with an altcoin rally. If so, I don't even want to say the words.....but "_______ season" comes to mind. Let's see what happens.

[exstasie]

Bottoming action on ETHBTC (and other ALT/BTC pairs) continues. The daily bullish engulfing confirmed, and now we're well on our way to a three white soldiers formation. The weekly chart now shows a bullish engulfing and hammer reversal candle. This is a clear rejection of attempts to sell below this bull trend:



Still got my fingers crossed that altcoins rally during the next major BTCUSD correction. That will be very telling about the months to come, not to mention profitable.

BTCUSD pushed another local high, almost touching $19K. I'm rolling long stop losses up below the $18,350 hourly pivot.

The Fear & Greed index is at a monumental 94:



The last time the index reached these heights, it was at the top of the June 2019 rally:



Careful out there! Don't be too greedy, especially when leverage is involved.

[exstasie]

BTCUSD pushed another local high, almost touching $19K. I'm rolling long stop losses up below the $18,350 hourly pivot.

Just got stopped out, looks like this is headed below $18K. Let's see whether this develops into a real selloff, or whether it just develops into another long setup.



Either way, I'm happy to be back on the sidelines for now. Risk off!

[exstasie]

Bottoming action on ETHBTC (and other ALT/BTC pairs) continues. The daily bullish engulfing confirmed, and now we're well on our way to a three white soldiers formation. The weekly chart now shows a bullish engulfing and hammer reversal candle. This is a clear rejection of attempts to sell below this bull trend:

Beautiful follow through on ETH. Confirmed outside bar reversal on the weekly makes this bottom look very solid:



Entering a resistance zone now, but it sure looks like dip buying season for ETHBTC.

BTCUSD looks like it might want to form a higher low off $18K on the 4-hour but......not sure yet. Still on the sidelines, no position here. It doesn't feel quite ready to dump yet.

Binance funding rates have been getting pretty high though, bouncing around in the 0.05-0.1+ % range. The greed is real!

[dragonvsandroid]

Bottoming action on ETHBTC (and other ALT/BTC pairs) continues. The daily bullish engulfing confirmed, and now we're well on our way to a three white soldiers formation. The weekly chart now shows a bullish engulfing and hammer reversal candle. This is a clear rejection of attempts to sell below this bull trend:

Beautiful follow through on ETH. Confirmed outside bar reversal on the weekly makes this bottom look very solid:



Entering a resistance zone now, but it sure looks like dip buying season for ETHBTC.

BTCUSD looks like it might want to form a higher low off $18K on the 4-hour but......not sure yet. Still on the sidelines, no position here. It doesn't feel quite ready to dump yet.

Binance funding rates have been getting pretty high though, bouncing around in the 0.05-0.1+ % range. The greed is real!

Looking forward to buying the ETH/BTC dip again 
Soon I hope...

[exstasie]

BTC over $30K, things are getting frothy.

BTC consolidation, ETH up:





Definite bubble dynamic developing. Strong signs of accumulation here:



Still working towards this 2.5 year bullish accumulation setup. Above 0.04, this market is going to go completely mad:

The only way to lose in that kind of market is to sell for fiat. Always focus on BTC profits......

[exstasie]

I'll be updating this thread with long term EW counts and generally becoming more active again once I'm confident this correction off $42K is complete. In the meantime, cross-posting some general ideas about where I think the market is, and where I think it's going.

Don't know how exactly a supercycle will play out, but yeah I imagine what we are seeing now is the start of a multi-year bull market that completely disregards the 4 year cycle which should be ending late this year.

In other words, an S-curve. So this is the basic idea:



The first 3 bubble cycles took place inside the red box. They're just tiny bumps in the road before the rocket takes off and goes into the vertical swing of the S-curve.

That's why $100K might seem like an extremely low price just a few years from now. The next phase may be much faster and more violent than the 2010-2020 phase.

So the hype we were waiting for 3 years... is here. Question is when will this bubble pop?

Not anytime soon. In 2017 terms, it's only April or May. Things haven't even gone parabolic yet!

Meanwhile only an idiot or a troll thinks that just because of such a move price could go below $30k let alone reach $3k

$3K is a joke, but sub-$30K would be very typical for Bitcoin. Check out some of the pullbacks we saw during the 2017 bubble:

• January 2017: 38%
• March 2017: 35%
• June-July 2017: 41%
• September 2017: 40%

From $42K, a 35% pullback = $27,300. 38% = $26,040. It goes lower from there.

After failing out of a 3-day mode on significant bearish momentum, I would say the odds of seeing the $20,000s again are pretty good, better than 50-50. Historically, $24-27K would be the prime knife catching area. Great place to dump cash and go all in coin. Also a great place to hunt for longs while future premiums are low.

And now the correction is over and Bitcoin is back to $38k haha. Bottom was $30k, bears celebrated for all of what like 3 days now they have to go back into hiding until they claim bitcoin is dead at the next correction!

Let me play devil's advocate for a moment.

There is the failed mode (horizontal resistance) at ~$40K and the 0.886 "last chance, bears!" Fib level at $40.6K. I'd like to see BTC conquer those levels before celebrating.

There is still a distinct possibility that this is an ABC "B wave" correction bull trap, just like the one we saw in the June 2017:



We are currently in the exact same Fib zone. Just tagged the 0.705 earlier today.

Its possible this Wave-4 does meander sideways for a few weeks, but still overall expecting a revisit to the 04-JAN-2021 lows.

The corresponding Wave-2 to this Wave-4 occurred in AUG-2020, and it took 4 weekly candles to play out, and it was a shallower 20% pullback.

The rule of alternation would suggest a sharp pullback in Wave 4, yes.

Sentiment feels very "Wave B" to me (as in Wave B of a higher degree ABC sharp Wave 4). Mid-June 2017 comes to mind. Everyone seems very quick to assume we're going to new ATHs immediately. Binance and Bitmex swap funding rates are already back at 0.06%. Sentiment just feels a little bit too greedy still. A sweep below $30K would shake confidence perfectly, leaving bulls out of position, setting the stage for another parabolic leg up.

Oooh fun it did dip back to $34k at least very briefly a few hours ago, but so far looks like it might be carving out a higher low at $34/35k (compared to the $30k of earlier this week). Wasn't expecting a $6k pull back after the $10k bounce of the correction haha, but still going under $30k looks like a very long shot.

Honestly, it looks drippy to me. Full retrace of the last leg up, good selling volume and momentum. Another 4H candle just closed and no sign of bullish reversal yet.

I see two scenarios. The first is a bearish ABC correction to sub-$30K, just like summer 2017. The second is what I call a "scam curve." It'll dig into the low-mid $30Ks but carve out a higher low in a larger sideways accumulation bottom.

Either way the correction continues, no moon yet.

Update on ETHBTC: expected resistance off these key VPVR levels, but looking good. Still on track:

[exstasie]

Bears are looking weak sauce. This is beginning to look like an Adam and Eve bottom. Another BB squeeze is developing on the 6-hour:



ETHUSD already made new highs. BTC sideways, alts up.....classic sign that the bubble is still in full swing:



This ETHBTC bottom formation is progressing beautifully. The market is just clearing the VPVR point of control. Above here there is very little volume resistance; only psychological resistance remains:



The pump from 0.04 to 0.08 is going to be very fun to ride.

[exstasie]

ETHUSD just came within $3 of its 2017 ATH, as BTC trades sideways.



Will we see a pop and drop off the ATH, like BTC in January 2017? Or will it run straight through it like BTC did to $20K last month? Very excited to see how the daily candle closes in 12 hours!

ETHBTC is going nuts, already trading above 0.0381. I really didn't expect that multi-year ETHBTC inverse H&S to pop off tonight. I still don't, but damn, this is moving much faster than I expected.

Time to pay attention. Sleep is for suckers.

EDIT: ATH breached.

[exstasie]

ETHUSD with the pop and drop! Weak breakout above the 2017 ATH and quickly trading back in the low $1,300s. Very reminiscent of BTC's false breakout in January 2017.

ETHBTC holding fairly well because BTCUSD is looking dumpy too. Nice little judas swing on the 4-hour from bears, showing they're still alive:



I'm not confident that the sideways is breaking or that we're getting a 2nd leg down yet, although I still have knife catching bids in the $24-28K range. The possibility is obviously still there, and the first step is for bears to dump below that $33,850 level with some authority.

[tokeweed]

^  34k is holding so far.  There were two strong bounces when it dropped to that level, a tad below that level...  But as soon as the rise reaches around 38k - 40k, there’s like an on switch for another sell down.  Lol.

A guy in my don’t panic thread was saying the drop to 34k was a bear trap...  Is the rise to 38k a bull trap then?  

[exstasie]

^  34k is holding so far.  There were two strong bounces when it dropped to that level, a tad below that level...

So much for that eh?



Impressive bear momentum and sell volume. Sub-$30K still on the table after all. Have those knife catching bids ready! Bear bias remains until the market breaks and holds above that $34-35K battle zone.

[exstasie]

Mmmm, sub-$30K. And so many said it was impossible!

I believe this correction is nearly over. It's possible the bottom is already in at $28.8K, although I did not quite see the volume extreme I was looking for. The volume is more reminiscent of January 10th than January 11th. It didn't quite feel like capitulation.



This is my preferred count:



The next local wave iv should top around the 0.382 area, in the range of the lower degree 4th. If we see the market pushing up above that 0.5 and 0.618 then the bottom is probably already in.

[exstasie]

Pretty sure the bottom is already in. Hard to see new lows forming when ETHUSD is breaking horizontal resistance like this:



Not to mention ETHBTC. This is a multi-year breakout:



Just look at that VPVR. Above here, there is no resistance at all. Should be an easy double and more.

Working on updated EW counts for BTCUSD.