Sportsbet.io Betting discussion thread rev

[Trofo]

Yesterday's special passed very easy, this one was a real gift, too bad it was gone before I got home so just small winnings. I am ready today and waiting for another one  Tag me here if something gets posted.

Zverev special died as expected, 6 aces per set is way too much unless Karlovic or Isner are playing.

[1714509114]

1714509114

[1714509114]

1714509114

[ralle14]

I don't like the first special for today, o1.5 on all six Asia world cup matches @4.9 I mean it's worth a small play as most of the totals are sitting around o2.5 but I have a feeling one match will go scoreless given that most of the opening matches from group A ended up 0-0.

https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/3886d422-f9c3-4d24-a8f6-4131f5f1b371

Hopefully we'd get another multi tennis special later today or tomorrow.

[buwaytress]

I don't like the first special for today, o1.5 on all six Asia world cup matches @4.9 I mean it's worth a small play as most of the totals are sitting around o2.5 but I have a feeling one match will go scoreless given that most of the opening matches from group A ended up 0-0.

I took the Asian one as well, but expect to get one 0-0 and a couple of 1-0s, same reason as you, they gave us a shit showing in opening games. It's been dreary all week long, worse in Europe but not much better in Asia or Africa, it's only LatAM games that seem to be bleeding the goals in.

I mean look at S Korea vs Lebanon now. Dominance vs total zero shots from Lebanese team. And still 0-0 at half time.

Saw rd's post also about the tennis but you know me, waiting for 15/1 or 30/1 straight set specials. I love throwing money there.

[notblox1]

I am constantly missing to make all predictions on Sportsbet US Open Prediction Contest in games and rounds, or should I say better I only make prediction for one match.
I don't have time to hang on forum all day and I don't even like to watch tennis but I love getting some free bets.
Confession time, I won two free bets recently and lost them all with making some bad bets, and I think I will have to ask for some betting advice here next time I get one 
I am getting most of my wining bets from betting on EFL and UFC that I follow.

[Trofo]

I am getting most of my wining bets from betting on EFL and UFC that I follow.

You have your solution right there, bet only on sports that you follow and markets that are profitable for you. I have been betting for 15 plus years and I know exactly what sports and markets are profitable for me. I am not professional enough to completely eliminate those that are not but I am managing my stake per ticket accordingly and it has been working ok for me.

Just checked how many participants is there in that Live Casino hero promo. I was not part of the last promo so I am missing some historic stats but this time there is only 297 of us on day one. Sounds very good to me, already over 3 mBTC for each and I guess lots of people will drop off. To make it better I am even about 20% in the green with the promo so far.

[buwaytress]

@notblox1 @Trofo yep! I know my game's football and my profits are generally in EPL, but also I spend time on the Big 4 leagues. 20/1+ underdogs for the past 4/5 seasons really give me so much cushion for bad runs, and there's always, always a handful of such wins every season. I do take advantage of a lot of extra juice and stuff though, and for sure without those, I'd be in the red, but then, that's what house edge is all about. Get the extra juice, get the advantage and overcome the house edge.

Thanks for keeping track on Day 1, Trofo, I can't remember but someone was tracking it daily in main SB thread, we can update here instead. It was, to my memory, slightly fewer participants last year, and there's always a huge drop in the first month, but after day 70, you still had about 1 dropping out every 2/3 days.

With the current date set for 31 Dec, that is roughly 115 days. If you're smart and just play safe, you get play games with <1% house edge so that's 115% expected loss on the daily wager: 5.75 mbtc. Even if you share the prize with 99 others on final day, you still make 6.25 profit + the milestone rewards. And last time around, BTC was not even $20k and there were <50 people left as I remember (reward was over 20 mbtc). With price twice as high, can expect fewer people on final day?

[ralle14]

Thanks for keeping track on Day 1, Trofo, I can't remember but someone was tracking it daily in main SB thread, we can update here instead. It was, to my memory, slightly fewer participants last year, and there's always a huge drop in the first month, but after day 70, you still had about 1 dropping out every 2/3 days.

It was actmyname who used to track the amount of participants on the main thread (including their names) and I agree it's interesting how people kept on dropping at the very end.

Before the promo started they still had the previous list and it was sitting between 42-43 participants.

Confession time, I won two free bets recently and lost them all with making some bad bets, and I think I will have to ask for some betting advice here next time I get one 
I am getting most of my wining bets from betting on EFL and UFC that I follow.

I'm in the same situation, most of my free bets are losing including the bet builder ones, but good thing I was able to recover thanks to the tennis multi. 

As much as possible I try and save the free bets until the very last day and try to find a good match where i'm confident on hitting.

[Trofo]

@buwayters and others

There is interesting special now live Djokovic To Win 3-1 & Over 9.5 Games In Each Set @40

I actually think it should end 3:1 in sets for Djokovic and if we got lucky that Beretiini serves first, this could pass. Anyway I am seeing value in this one and taking it. Long odds but much better than those specials with aces in it.

[arallmuus]

If you're smart and just play safe, you get play games with <1% house edge so that's 115% expected loss on the daily wager: 5.75 mbtc.

Mind to share how do you guys bet on the live casino for the live hero tournament? So far I have been getting through by betting 2.5 mbtc each on both red and black in roulette so thats a total of 5 mbtc in a single bet. I think that this is a pretty dumb strategy because one single green would wipe me out and I probably cant do this type of bet until the competition ends

Even if you share the prize with 99 others on final day, you still make 6.25 profit + the milestone rewards.

What were the milestone rewards for the last tournament? Btw aside from the milestone rewards, our wager will be counted for the clubhouse achievement so we will be getting some rewards from clubhouse as well

[buwaytress]

There is interesting special now live Djokovic To Win 3-1 & Over 9.5 Games In Each Set @40

I actually think it should end 3:1 in sets for Djokovic and if we got lucky that Beretiini serves first, this could pass. Anyway I am seeing value in this one and taking it. Long odds but much better than those specials with aces in it.

Took this one. I'm just not sure about 9.5 but for sure one tie break, and at least as you said no aces, unlike the Zverev special I also took (I'm hoping for a bad streak to end). Quite a few losing specials on account of those damned aces.

Mind to share how do you guys bet on the live casino for the live hero tournament? So far I have been getting through by betting 2.5 mbtc each on both red and black in roulette so thats a total of 5 mbtc in a single bet. I think that this is a pretty dumb strategy because one single green would wipe me out and I probably cant do this type of bet until the competition ends

Don't mind at all, I sort of shared already in SB thread. You're right, that's a really dumb way to do roulette haha, one 0 and you wipe out, 4 zeroes and you're already -EV

Choose a game with good RTP, I go for freebet blackjack 99.29% RTP. I play 0.1mbtc every hand, always take the free double down and free splits (depending on dealer card of course). That's a very good balance return if you just stick to 50 hands. Some days you win, some you lose.

But I also, occasionally, take the bust sidebet. I wait for a dealer streak of 3 to 4 no busts, then start martingaling on bust sidebet. So yesterday I started betting after 4 dealer no-busts, and then still endured 4 more no-busts! But by 5th hand, my martingale had become 1.6mbtc and dealer busted on 5 cards = 9/1 payout = 13.5mbtc to play with, which can definitely last me a lot of weeks just playing like this. As soon as I make an unexpected profit from that sidebe, I'll not play it anymore until my profits eat away by normal playing.

Last season I had 3.2mbtc on a 6-card bust -- that's 50/1 payout! So you can imagine I didn't do anything anymore until final day and was very very comfortable on losing streaks.

Remember, not good advice, and 10-nobust streaks are common enough on a bad shoe. My max loss is 6.3 mbtc (meaning I stop if I lose at 3.2 mbtc). And yes, it has happened.

What were the milestone rewards for the last tournament? Btw aside from the milestone rewards, our wager will be counted for the clubhouse achievement so we will be getting some rewards from clubhouse as well

I honestly can't remember. They were not very big, freebets I think on BJ or Roulette? Casino freebet is quite good btw, if you win it, you get stake back too, (e.g. 1 mbtc freebet on 2/1 win gets you 2mbtc, unlike sports freebet).

[Trofo]

Casino freebet is quite good btw, if you win it, you get stake back too, (e.g. 1 mbtc freebet on 2/1 win gets you 2mbtc, unlike sports freebet).

Did not know that. What is the logic behind this? Surely something wrong with how they set it up on the site.

My strategy for live casino hero is no strategy at all. I play red or black for 0.25 chips, and then start doubling the stakes after it does not go my way in couple of spins. Sort of gambling for real and not trying to use the system. So far I ended day one without profits or loses, won 2 mBTC on day 2 and lost 1 mBTC on day 3 (but I forced it big time, last bet was for 3 mBTC and the ball ended on zero). I wagered more than 5 mBTC every day, closer to 10.

[arallmuus]

You're right, that's a really dumb way to do roulette haha, one 0 and you wipe out, 4 zeroes and you're already -EV

Yeah the proper method is to play with optimum strat otherwise it will be -EV by the end of the tournament and so far I have been lucky with that dumb strat lol

Choose a game with good RTP, I go for freebet blackjack 99.29% RTP. I play 0.1mbtc every hand, always take the free double down and free splits (depending on dealer card of course). That's a very good balance return if you just stick to 50 hands. Some days you win, some you lose.

But I also, occasionally, take the bust sidebet.
-snip

Thats a pretty good way to play but if you take the sidebet as well that means it should take less than 50 hands with 0.1 mbtc wager on the BJ to get minimum of 5 mbtc wagered everyday isnt it? So how much should we wager for the sidebet?

if you win it, you get stake back too, (e.g. 1 mbtc freebet on 2/1 win gets you 2mbtc, unlike sports freebet).

Dang I didnt know this

My strategy for live casino hero is no strategy at all. I play red or black for 0.25 chips, and then start doubling the stakes after it does not go my way in couple of spins.

So its pretty much similar to martingale huh. Probably will try various way for this live hero tournament. Gotta find the best way to minimize loss from playing until this ends. We'll see how this goes though for the first 30 days

[notblox1]

You have your solution right there, bet only on sports that you follow and markets that are profitable for you.

I like betting on UFC and MMA events because draw is something that is not happening so often, so you have 50-50 coin flip chance.
Betting on other sports I like to support underdogs sometimes and play double chance so I am doing something similar and playing it more safe by eliminating one outcome.
Draw is happening more in some sports so we have 33-33-33 for home win, draw and away win, so double chance or asian handicap is my strategy, but it is not perfect because sometimes I fail.

I know my game's football and my profits are generally in EPL, but also I spend time on the Big 4 leagues. 20/1+ underdogs for the past 4/5 seasons really give me so much cushion for bad runs, and there's always, always a handful of such wins every season.

I can't keep up following all big leagues, so I do follow Premier League and Championship, and when there is some betting competition I follow some matches from other leagues.
Underdog strategy is much better then betting always on favorites with small odds.

[rdbase]

@buwayters and others

There is interesting special now live Djokovic To Win 3-1 & Over 9.5 Games In Each Set @40

I actually think it should end 3:1 in sets for Djokovic and if we got lucky that Beretiini serves first, this could pass. Anyway I am seeing value in this one and taking it. Long odds but much better than those specials with aces in it.

I took the special for this one with Djokovic even though I saw the Zverev one and had to decide which one to favor. So went with the higher odds one.
Sasha didn't get his aces in the second set needed to win the bet when the same special was offered earlier in the week.
So this also made my decision a bit easier too.

Just going to sit down after this post to watch the match and relax a bit after a hectic work week.

Good luck to all who managed to see these special early cause they are there then gone after a couple of hours.
So you gotta be quick about taking them on.

You have your solution right there, bet only on sports that you follow and markets that are profitable for you.

I like betting on UFC and MMA events because draw is something that is not happening so often, so you have 50-50 coin flip chance.
Betting on other sports I like to support underdogs sometimes and play double chance so I am doing something similar and playing it more safe by eliminating one outcome.
Draw is happening more in some sports so we have 33-33-33 for home win, draw and away win, so double chance or asian handicap is my strategy, but it is not perfect because sometimes I fail.

I know my game's football and my profits are generally in EPL, but also I spend time on the Big 4 leagues. 20/1+ underdogs for the past 4/5 seasons really give me so much cushion for bad runs, and there's always, always a handful of such wins every season.

I can't keep up following all big leagues, so I do follow Premier League and Championship, and when there is some betting competition I follow some matches from other leagues.
Underdog strategy is much better then betting always on favorites with small odds.

I believe these draw in the UFC are called split decisions by the judges as some casinos count these as not a win in their books and sometimes gives your stake amount back.
But not all of them see it this way, so it depends on which casino you had placed your bets on for these UFC matches.

[buwaytress]

Man, frustrating misses on the specials. Zverev special missed by one game in the second set (and of course plenty of aces), while Djoker was far too good in all his winning sets, special was dead also in second set.

Been using live casino to win back my losses on specials this entire week, so far so good. But will be really glad for EPL action again as have been taking unnecessary risks to chase small losses, not too happy with myself =p

[Trofo]

Been using live casino to win back my losses on specials this entire week, so far so good. But will be really glad for EPL action again as have been taking unnecessary risks to chase small losses, not too happy with myself =p

Ended all the days so war on 0 or in the green, hopefully the luck will hold.

Anybody knows what is a "day" in live casino hero? I.e. When the day starts and ends? Checked the participants table today and I can see that most of the participants have 4 days, and I am on 3 even though I wagered more than 5 mBTC every day. Have a feeling it will be another question for live support

Hopefully history button in live casino shows real values and days since I used that to track my progress.

Edit: I guess the table was partially updated, all ok now
221 people left which comes out to about 4.5 mBTC

[buwaytress]

Alert guys, 288.88 special on all games in EPL today to score under 2.5 goals.

It won't happen because well, we've got big guns playing today and hard to see not even one 2-1 win happening, but still, good value for me.

And on Casino Live, yeah same here, 0 as in today, and not going for more, and a few days already way more than 5 mbtc haha (usually to chase back a deep loss). Definitely not good to keep playing like that, to only have completed a week and already do that twice doesn't bode well. Going to try and keep things steady and use up my wins.

[ralle14]

There's also a boosted daily special on Leicester to win (6.00 to 8.00) vs Man City. I don't have the guts to take underdogs in the EPL so i'll skip on it.

I'm always in the red for every live casino hero session but i've somewhat recovered with the help of a couple sports bet.

Anybody knows what is a "day" in live casino hero? I.e. When the day starts and ends? Checked the participants table today and I can see that most of the participants have 4 days, and I am on 3 even though I wagered more than 5 mBTC every day. Have a feeling it will be another question for live support

Afaik the next day in live casino hero starts once it's 12am UTC similar to forum time. The leaderboards doesn't update that fast though, I think they only update it later on during the day.

[buwaytress]

There's also a boosted daily special on Leicester to win (6.00 to 8.00) vs Man City. I don't have the guts to take underdogs in the EPL so i'll skip on it.
====
Afaik the next day in live casino hero starts once it's 12am UTC similar to forum time. The leaderboards doesn't update that fast though, I think they only update it later on during the day.

Goddang, it came after I made my own bet on Leicester, even wasted my daily football boost to get it to 6.50. Don't mind adding a bit more on to it though, you know I love betting against Citeh and Leicester already gave me a nice win early days.

Only underdog worth today is Villa at 14/1 but I don't think Chelsea will do worse than a draw at home.

For me Live Casino shows the time of the device I connect from. I've noticed when on a connection from my original home it shows that local time.

I use Server time also though (which is UTC time, as you say, same as bitcointalk time, so it's easy to remember when Daylight Savings happens). You can see this on the Casino lobby before you play.

[rdbase]

Alert guys, 288.88 special on all games in EPL today to score under 2.5 goals.

It won't happen because well, we've got big guns playing today and hard to see not even one 2-1 win happening, but still, good value for me.

And on Casino Live, yeah same here, 0 as in today, and not going for more, and a few days already way more than 5 mbtc haha (usually to chase back a deep loss). Definitely not good to keep playing like that, to only have completed a week and already do that twice doesn't bode well. Going to try and keep things steady and use up my wins.

Saw that special but woke up too late to see if I was able to take it.
But yeah buywayress, we are all expecting alot of goals today with the break being over and the first set of match in the EPL along with the debt of Ronaldo in the red again.

Nobody really knows if he will be in the starting line up in the Manchester United match against New Castle.
Because that would mean they will need to drop someone in the current lineup. Maybe Greenwood?
I sure hope he does start and not put him in the last minutes remaining left of the match just like Pep did for Jack Grealish when he made his a weeks ago for City.