Sportsbet.io Betting discussion thread rev

[icopress]

It seems that betting and investing have some similarities. [..]

The reason people are attracted to investing and sports betting is in human nature ... in greed.

We invest money for the purpose of making a profit, therefore, the main and main similarity between rates and investing are risks and measures to reduce them. I don’t know, maybe someone can say better, but judging by what you said, your friend is a great example of why you should not engage in investing or betting if you do not understand anything about it, (especially if you are not ready to lose your money).

[Trofo]

Btw, does anyone want to argue that at least one team will be left without yellow cards during the group matches?

I am still hoping we will see that yellow for every team. Must admit that I did not expect referees to let the play go this much. Just watching Ukraine match and there was ugly start on Malinovsky (arm to the neck) which would have gotten yellow card in almost every league. Here it was not even a foul. Granted there was advantage play but lost soon after and I expected ref to give free kick at least.

Italy has me worried, 2 games without yellow and they are playing very good. Hopefully they will rotate some players for the last much and one of them will be a little to eager and earn yellow card. I believe other teams will get at least that one yellow.

[icopress]

Italy has me worried, 2 games without yellow and they are playing very good. Hopefully they will rotate some players for the last much and one of them will be a little to eager and earn yellow card. I believe other teams will get at least that one yellow.

Well, I'm pretty sure that after today's matches we will be just as worried about the Netherlands and Belgium as we are worried about Italy, I would not like that, but it is likely. I'm not particularly worried about France, Spain and Denmark, since Denmark needs a lot of points, as a result of the game with her participation should be tense, (with France and Spain, everything is clear).

Every Team To Have A Yellow Card In The Group Stages

Group A: Turkey 🟨, Italy, Wales 🟨, Switzerland 🟨

Group B: Denmark, Finland 🟨, Belgium, Russia 🟨

Group C: Netherlands, Ukraine 🟨, Austria 🟨, North Macedonia 🟨

Group D: England 🟨, Croatia 🟨, Scotland, Czech Republic

Group E: Spain, Sweden 🟨, Poland 🟨, Slovakia 🟨

Group F: Hungary 🟨, Portugal 🟨, France, Germany 🟨

[buwaytress]

Italy has me worried, 2 games without yellow and they are playing very good. Hopefully they will rotate some players for the last much and one of them will be a little to eager and earn yellow card. I believe other teams will get at least that one yellow.

Well, I'm pretty sure that after today's matches we will be just as worried about the Netherlands and Belgium as we are worried about Italy, I would not like that, but it is likely. I'm not particularly worried about France, Spain and Denmark, since Denmark needs a lot of points, as a result of the game with her participation should be tense, (with France and Spain, everything is clear).

Every Team To Have A Yellow Card In The Group Stages

Group A: Turkey 🟨, Italy, Wales 🟨, Switzerland 🟨

Group B: Denmark, Finland 🟨, Belgium, Russia 🟨

Group C: Netherlands, Ukraine 🟨, Austria 🟨, North Macedonia 🟨

Group D: England 🟨, Croatia 🟨, Scotland, Czech Republic

Group E: Spain, Sweden 🟨, Poland 🟨, Slovakia 🟨

Group F: Hungary 🟨, Portugal 🟨, France, Germany 🟨

Ah, so I see morvillz and others have been keeping track of this too, and yep, definitely refs have been more... premier league if you want to say. Very relaxed with tackles and fouls, giving the foul but not trigger happy with the cards.

Yesterday's games were very productive, giving cards to Denmark, Belgium, and even a nice unnecessary Dutch foul to tick them off the box too.

Ordinarily not worried about Italy but yeah they have NOT been playing with any pressure at all, and the same for France who will feel they got the toughest game out of the way.

As it stands:
Czech, Spain, France, Italy are left, but let's hope we only need to wait on Italy after this week of Matchday 2 games!

[slaman29]

Italy has me worried, 2 games without yellow and they are playing very good. Hopefully they will rotate some players for the last much and one of them will be a little to eager and earn yellow card. I believe other teams will get at least that one yellow.

Well, I'm pretty sure that after today's matches we will be just as worried about the Netherlands and Belgium as we are worried about Italy, I would not like that, but it is likely. I'm not particularly worried about France, Spain and Denmark, since Denmark needs a lot of points, as a result of the game with her participation should be tense, (with France and Spain, everything is clear).
[/quote]

As pointed out now by buway already we no longer need to worry about Netherlands and Belgium:)

I actually don't follow Serie A but I always thought that league had a lot of yellow because of the way they play and simulations, like in La Liga. No yellow card for simulation in EURO yet, so hopefully we get some yellow from Italy time wasting or as Trofo says, from playing young eager players.

[rdbase]

Italy has me worried, 2 games without yellow and they are playing very good. Hopefully they will rotate some players for the last much and one of them will be a little to eager and earn yellow card. I believe other teams will get at least that one yellow.
Well, I'm pretty sure that after today's matches we will be just as worried about the Netherlands and Belgium as we are worried about Italy, I would not like that, but it is likely. I'm not particularly worried about France, Spain and Denmark, since Denmark needs a lot of points, as a result of the game with her participation should be tense, (with France and Spain, everything is clear).

As pointed out now by buway already we no longer need to worry about Netherlands and Belgium:)

I actually don't follow Serie A but I always thought that league had a lot of yellow because of the way they play and simulations, like in La Liga. No yellow card for simulation in EURO yet, so hopefully we get some yellow from Italy time wasting or as Trofo says, from playing young eager players.

Now that league (Serie A) is known for having a high output of cards per match. I think due to alot of flopping going around.
Belgium were always favorites going into this tournaments from the very start I believe because Kevin DeBruyne was cleared as fit enough to participate in the Euros. I remember for the last match in the EPL he was injured by taking a knock to the jaw with a late hit in final Manchester City match of the season. So his availability was up in the air for this event.
Netherlands squad looked good in the first match I have seen them play with Depay taking the penalty early on and then sending it off to Malen for the assist in the goal that took them onto the next round was inspiring.

As for most, I am looking forward for Italy's match on Sunday against Wales to see if they do another 3 goals to take them to the top of goals scored in this tournament so far.

[Trofo]

As it stands:
Czech, Spain, France, Italy are left, but let's hope we only need to wait on Italy after this week of Matchday 2 games!

That would be very nice since it will also open an opportunity to defend our promo. I guess it should be solid odds on Italy not getting a card and I plan to take them. Quite possibly on some other bookie since Sportsbet will probably drop the odds when people start playing that market.

[morvillz7z]

We're not getting any of the high-odds specials to land, are we, lads? 

At this point, the 120+ goals special is pretty much doomed, it was looking good a week ago as we peaked @2.66^[1]. We should probably dismiss the over 11.5 goals in each group, with mighty England scoring one goal in two matches, are you kidding me? Any three teams to win all three of their group matches is hanging by a thread. It will be a miracle if Italy or Spain get carded in their remaining matches, especially with the way the Spaniards are playing, having nearly 1k completed passes in their opener, much ball possession, much wow!

Group C had 9 goals in round one, but only 5 in round two, making it very difficult for 21 or more goals special, idk maybe the Netherlands can score 5 against North Macedonia but they are likely to rotate and give rest to their starters since they can't lose the 1st place in their group. Aahhh...

[1]

Over 120 Goals To Be Scored At Euro 2020
Target pace: 2.38
Current pace: 2.14 (match 21 completed)

[arallmuus]

Group C had 9 goals in round one, but only 5 in round two, making it very difficult for 21 or more goals special, idk maybe the Netherlands can score 5 against North Macedonia but they are likely to rotate and give rest to their starters since they can't lose the 1st place in their group. Aahhh...

Its still possible though ( probably around 30-35 % chance ), I mean North Macedonia is pretty bad so getting 3 goal from this match is pretty plausible. It could be 2-1 for Netherlands even if they decided to rotate the whole starting lineup, North Macedonia has never fail to score in their last 2 games.

Now that leaves 4 goals for Ukraine vs Austria, both team wants win to qualify for the next round so expect alot of goals from this one  

[1]

Over 120 Goals To Be Scored At Euro 2020
Target pace: 2.38
Current pace: 2.14 (match 21 completed)

There were 51 matches for 2016 and that one had 108 goals. On average we should be getting around this number of goals unless some teams goes totally nuts and score like over 4 goals in one match lol. Anyway I'll be happy in case the 21 goals special for group stage hit

P.S : thanks for keeping track on the average goals

[buwaytress]

The second 0-0 of the group stages so far, and tight 1-0s and 1-1s, I guess the 120 goal special is looking worse and worse, and also running out of games for the Over 4.5 goals scored by a team in a match. And also not so good for 21 in a group.

Ah well, we can hope for a crazy round 3, hopefully for those guys desperate to get 3rd?

On the yellows, we're getting there, aren't we guys? Trofo def what I was thinking too if it's just Italy, good to hedge on a no-yellows single. I'll scout around already.

[Trofo]

The second 0-0 of the group stages so far, and tight 1-0s and 1-1s, I guess the 120 goal special is looking worse and worse, and also running out of games for the Over 4.5 goals scored by a team in a match. And also not so good for 21 in a group.

Ah well, we can hope for a crazy round 3, hopefully for those guys desperate to get 3rd?

On the yellows, we're getting there, aren't we guys? Trofo def what I was thinking too if it's just Italy, good to hedge on a no-yellows single. I'll scout around already.

21 in a group is going as well as could be expected. We have that great group with Netherlands, Ukraine...

I am more disappointed with over 11.5 in all groups. No way we are getting there in England group. They are my biggest disappointment of the tournament so far. One of the favourites should play better and much more attacking. Kane did not have a shot in 2 games. WTF? Go take tips from Italy and Belgium.

[buwaytress]

Round 3 Bet Free 6-6 is open, don't forget gentlemen!

https://sportsbet.io/sports/bet-free-6-6

21 in a group is going as well as could be expected. We have that great group with Netherlands, Ukraine...

I am more disappointed with over 11.5 in all groups. No way we are getting there in England group. They are my biggest disappointment of the tournament so far. One of the favourites should play better and much more attacking. Kane did not have a shot in 2 games. WTF? Go take tips from Italy and Belgium.

Even as round 2 was going on I was already prepared to get money back on all those specials; to be fair, most of them were not expected to hit anyway, but let's see if Spain/France/Germany can still remind us why they were the early tournament favourites (except England which I think is always because of bookie margins they totally don't deserve their odds). Group D now need to find a way to score 6 in their final game, so that alone should kill that special... but then we also have E and F who're competing to disappoint;)

Group A: 10
Group B: 9
Group C: 14
Group D: 6
Group E: 4 with 2 games in hand
Group F: 5 with 1 game in hand

I've actually been doing well with picks, problem for me is I've also been parlaying them with Copa and Asian games which keep losing me legs. That said, I've won back insurance almost every day now on the 5-legs, as EURO favs minus England have been showing up.

[morvillz7z]

Imagine if we had a promo with O/U own goals scored, it would most likely have won by now. If only...

Btw, does anyone know which EURO has had the most (and how many) own goals? I think we have 6 5 so far, which is a lot at this stage of the tournament.

"Portugal are the first European nation ever to concede two own goals in a single match at a major tournament (World Cup or Euros)."
source: https://twitter.com/OptaJoe/status/1406292950922022919

[icopress]

That would be very nice since it will also open an opportunity to defend our promo. I guess it should be solid odds on Italy not getting a card and I plan to take them. Quite possibly on some other bookie since Sportsbet will probably drop the odds when people start playing that market.

Are you talking about BetBuilder? I am also thinking about insurance for this promo, but I plan to do it after the Spain / Poland match (although you may be right that the later the lower the coefficient will be). While 3.25 more or less decent and at the same time safe coefficient, but if you deign to share your thoughts on this in a PM (or publicly), I would be very grateful, (choices that you plan to use for insurance).

[Trofo]

That would be very nice since it will also open an opportunity to defend our promo. I guess it should be solid odds on Italy not getting a card and I plan to take them. Quite possibly on some other bookie since Sportsbet will probably drop the odds when people start playing that market.

Are you talking about BetBuilder? I am also thinking about insurance for this promo, but I plan to do it after the Spain / Poland match (although you may be right that the later the lower the coefficient will be). While 3.25 more or less decent and at the same time safe coefficient, but if you deign to share your thoughts on this in a PM (or publicly), I would be very grateful, (choices that you plan to use for insurance).

I did not check offers yet but I was not talking about betbuilder. There should be straight forward cards market to pick on all major bookies. But be carefull not to pick booking points since that takes red cards into account as well.

I am expecting to get better odds for this bet on other bookies since many people on sportsbet will have the same idea to defend this promo. I am using Sportsbet for 95% of my bets at the moment but you have to take significantly better odds elsewhere when you can find them and I expect this to be such case.

Will let you know when/if I actually play the ticket.

Edit: And now thanks to Pau Torres and Pavard we are waiting only for Italy to get that one yellow card. Will try to defend it tomorrow but not for full amount. I still believe Italy will get that yellow card. I am expecting some guys from the bench to play from minute one and they could be just a bit too eager to show themselves. Hopefully we will also get some trigger happy ref for the game.

[buwaytress]

Catastrophe in Seville!

With Pau Torres getting booked, we now truly only wait for Italy. I think it's going to be our first winner, but always nice to hedge, but as Trofo says, you can't precisely hedge as it's booking points, not yellows, as far as I can tell for all the books I'm using.

The only option is to open a market on Fairlay or something and hope someone takes it haha, otherwise, everywhere else I've checked nothing precise.

Nevertheless, the way Italy plays, I can't see a red card, so I booked an equal bet there anyway on under 0.5 booking points -- 2.76 -- still best odds at SB with boost. If we lose the special, I get my money back, if they only get a red card, I'll lost about 30% more than my original outlay. Its okay:)

==== Update on total goals====
Group A: 10
Group B: 9
Group C: 14
Group D: 6
Group E: 6
Group F: 13
58 from 24 games
Average: 2.41 -- we're still alive!

For 21 goals, our hopes rest on Netherlands and Germany? Maybe even another thriller betwixt Portugal and France?

[icopress]

58 from 24 games
Average: 2.41 -- we're still alive!

For 21 goals, our hopes rest on Netherlands and Germany? Maybe even another thriller betwixt Portugal and France?

Where did you see + 3 goals? I counted 55 forgotten ones and divided them into 24 games .... and I still can't get 2.41.  As far as 21 goals are concerned, I think it is unlikely that 9 goals will be scored in G'F ... I'm not even sure about the Netherlands against N'Macedonia (although 7 goals in 2 games seems more realistic).

[DarkStar_]

With Pau Torres getting booked, we now truly only wait for Italy. I think it's going to be our first winner, but always nice to hedge, but as Trofo says, you can't precisely hedge as it's booking points, not yellows, as far as I can tell for all the books I'm using.

The only option is to open a market on Fairlay or something and hope someone takes it haha, otherwise, everywhere else I've checked nothing precise.

If you trust them (personally I think as a player they're fine to use, but they did kinda screw over investors), BitDice currently has Italy under 0.5 cards at 2.77 odds. I couldn't find any other non-KYC Bitcoin options with the market unfortunately. I think I'll just let my bet live and hope Italy gets a yellow - might as well make things interesting 

[morvillz7z]

I'm not going to take any chances with the yellow cards special, so i went with the hedge myself! Odds on SB dropped from 2.60 to 2.46 half an hour after the Spain game ended, indicating that quite a number of us were hitting the Italy total bookings u0.5 market.

But let's hope it's not a single red card... , I had to look up who the ref will be, Ovidiu Hategan, some Romanian dude. He has shown three red cards in his previous two international matches (Poland/Slovakia just recently, and Wales WC qualifier earlier this year) <--- take that as you will.

edit; 2.60 --> 2.46 --> 2.26 --> 2.10  

[slaman29]

Wow guys what a day yesterday, wish I could have watched we're so unlucky to be in Asia during this big tournament:)

Now that league (Serie A) is known for having a high output of cards per match. I think due to alot of flopping going around.

I follow more La Liga and there is quite a lot of flapping around there as well if I am being honest, but strangely this tournament I don't see much of it. Some here and there, but nothing so outrageous, maybe more in Copa if I actually watch it, but too late to stay up:)