[Chart] Worst Case Bear Flag Extrapolation & BTFD Scenario (29.02)

[dragonvslinux]

Note: I'm not necessarily publishing this as I think this will happen, see my recent bullish TA in other threads, but confirming the bear flag by breaking down to critical support levels would suggest the following extrapolated target (red bars) none the less. This is therefore a neutral call, based on the fact that we may go up from here, or from lower levels, but either way I believe it's time to btfd before the bullish rally continues (green bars). Bear flag requires a break of the channel in order to confirm.

Worst Case Bear Flag Extrapolation & BTFD Scenario



Source: TradingView, March 10th 2020.

Bear flag on 4hr time-frame, vs bullish support on longer-term time-frames. This extrapolation would be a breakdown of the bear flag targeting around $7.4K and again testing the previous maro bull flag resistance turned support trend-line, before continuing the bullish rally to $11.5K. The 4hr RSI remains oversold* is in bearish territory while struggling to leave these conditions, indicating room to fall lower.

Long-term time-frames say DYOR and BTFD.

Correction: the 4hr RSI is in bearish territory (as of publishing) and currently testing the neutral zone at 40. Same principle applies, plenty of room to move down if selling pressure continues.

Uuuhh...  Looks like it's gonna turn from dip buying to bounce selling.  Lower highs for the time being for now folks...  I think.  -_- 

Everyone is getting so bearish!

Part 1: Volume Profile Accumulation Zone $5,910 - $8,630 (VPVR)

Part 2: Volume Point of Control $8,188 Now Turned Support (VPVR)

Other related TA topics:
Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years @ $7,245 - December 2019
Extrapolating 2014 Correction: Could $6,500 Be The Low For Bitcoin?, December 2019
Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate Bitcoin, December 2019
Bitcoin Is Repeating History? TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns, September-October 2019
Dragonvslinux Technical Analysis: 3 Month Graphical Review

[dragonvslinux]

I'm not necessarily publishing this as I think this will happen, see my recent bullish TA in other threads [...]

Today's update (see also best case scenario):

Looks like we've broken out this bear flag to the upside for now. This doesn't negative the possibility of a worst case scenario to mid sub $8K level, now the Weekly TD is on a Red 2, but it won't be from this bear flag extrapolation that has been invalidated.

As of yesterdays close, I'm feeling more confident about a bounce from these levels due to the Daily MACD histogram confirming bearish exhaustion from oversold conditions (<-175):

I should lock this topic now, but for transparency & accountability I won't.

[exstasie]

Bear flag on 4hr time-frame, vs bullish support on longer-term time-frames. This extrapolation would be a breakdown of the bear flag targeting around $7.4K and again testing the previous maro bull flag resistance turned support trend-line, before continuing the bullish rally to $11.5K. The 4hr RSI remains oversold* is in bearish territory while struggling to leave these conditions, indicating room to fall lower.

Bear flag or falling wedge?

Could this be a (bullish) falling wedge?

The EW analyst in me wants another leg down to complete the Wave 5 throw-over:



Either way, I consider it a bullish pattern. We're due for a big bounce.

[dragonvslinux]

Bear flag on 4hr time-frame, vs bullish support on longer-term time-frames. This extrapolation would be a breakdown of the bear flag targeting around $7.4K and again testing the previous maro bull flag resistance turned support trend-line, before continuing the bullish rally to $11.5K. The 4hr RSI remains oversold* is in bearish territory while struggling to leave these conditions, indicating room to fall lower.

Bear flag or falling wedge?

Could this be a (bullish) falling wedge?

Personally I still see it as a bear flag that we negated by breaking to the upside 



Getting rejected at current (200 Day MA) prices would likely create another bear flag struture on the 4hr imo. I do see the argument for a falling wedge, but there are more points of contact with candle bodies from a flag imo. In the same way a descending triangle could be moronically subjectively drawn based on wicks, but not candle bodies.

PS - I did see your post previously on your thread after posting, always appreciate your input in mine though 

[buwaytress]

I didn't say it til Saturday myself. I'm always generally neutral on direction in short term (or even medium term, or shall I say days or weeks in my view) but I definitely BTFD on the weekend by submitting invoices for Feb on the spot. It could probably go a bit lower but I'm pretty sure by the time I'm forced to sell in a couple of weeks again, it'll have bounced back into 9k regions.

At the end of all this, like you maybe, 200MA speaks the loudest, so let's see.

[dragonvslinux]

Returning to this TA, it's noticeable that despite the bear flag breaking to the upside, price has capitulated close to the extrapolation of $7,400.

Similar to last month, I believe there's a strong chance of a V-shaped from the $7K levels, due to how aggressively price was sold off, as well as returning to strong support.

Despite many people believing Bitcoin wouldn't return to this accumulation zone, we have now re-entered these price levels after briefly leaving this zone of suport.

Needless to say, I believe current prices are within the long-term macro accumulation levels, with $5.9K being the floor of this support. For all those who missed the accumulation zone last year, I believe the current sell off has provided us with another great opportunity to acquire Bitcoin at very reasonable prices. Furthermore, it's unsurprisingly that shorter-term bearish speculation has sold the top or this accumulation range (the break below $8,630), in order to buy back at the lower levels of the range. However, similar to last year, I find it unlikely that Bitcoin will reach the bottom of this accumulation zone, or lower lows than $6.4K, given the increasing volume support if prices continue to move lower.

"Everything is fine". BTFD

Furthermore, if the Fear & Greed Index is anything to go by (it usually is), this confirms that accumulating at current prices is not only within the long-term accumulation zone, but additionally at current oversold conditions, it would be doing so when the market is experiencing extreme fear, hence my relative greed right now. "Be greedy and others are fearful", from the infamous Bitcoin critic Warren Buffet.

[dragonvslinux]

Are we starting to carve out a V-shape bottom after an aggressive sell-off? It's starting to look that way, even if my timing was a little off:

With strong VPVR support (turned temporary resistance) around $8,200, I think we could see a strong rebound if price moves back above this level.
To clarify, this chart is one of the reasons I aggressively bought this aggressive sell-off 

[buwaytress]

Have to say, even without looking at the charts, when yesterday's aggressive sell off became apparent, even I was tempted to use whatever USDT/similar I had in one or two exchanges to use up, and I did. Instinctively I'm always about that magic 200MA and coupled with extreme fear on the greed index (when was the last time we saw that huh?), hard to resist piling in more than I'd planned for.