Globb0 BTC charts

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

What did I missed?

Price did broke $6600, however, I didn't expect the price to bounce back quickly after and move to $7k. I thought we will see some double top to confirmed bearish trend, but I guess it was obviously rejected. So now the trend looks like we are in the bullish zone, but just under the resistance zone. So anything can still happened, need to break the resistance zone though to push the price to $7300-$7500.

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[Globb0]

What did I missed?

Price did broke $6600, however, I didn't expect the price to bounce back quickly after and move to $7k. I thought we will see some double top to confirmed bearish trend, but I guess it was obviously rejected. So now the trend looks like we are in the bullish zone, but just under the resistance zone. So anything can still happened, need to break the resistance zone though to push the price to $7300-$7500.

yes that's really why Id like to see where the current daily candle will close

it feels right in the balance of up or down

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

What did I missed?

Price did broke $6600, however, I didn't expect the price to bounce back quickly after and move to $7k. I thought we will see some double top to confirmed bearish trend, but I guess it was obviously rejected. So now the trend looks like we are in the bullish zone, but just under the resistance zone. So anything can still happened, need to break the resistance zone though to push the price to $7300-$7500.

yes that's really why Id like to see where the current daily candle will close

it feels right in the balance of up or down

Start of the week, there might be some interesting movement. Just take note that April-June of last year was bullish and parabolic rise. Almost all of the traditional global markets are green right now, so we might want to take that into consideration as well.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Start of the week, there might be some interesting movement. Just take note that April-June of last year was bullish and parabolic rise. Almost all of the traditional global markets are green right now, so we might want to take that into consideration as well.

"Sell in May and Go Away" didn't came from nowhere.

"From 1950 to around 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had an average return of only 0.3% during the May to October period, compared with an average gain of 7.5% during the November to April period,"

Based on 63 years data. Good thing is that, based on last few years, this patter is less visible but I would not expect this or this:

Just take note that April-June of last year was bullish and parabolic rise

to have big influence on price when we have:
1- fiat printers doing brrrr
2- covid panic and possible second wave of infections
3- halving
4- historic high fluctuation on stocks
....
50- Italy may not recover from financial crisis and sink whole EU - same currency
....
100- problems at OPEC+ that may end in a conflict in the Middle East (US will do a lot for the stability of oil prices)
....

[exstasie]

Start of the week, there might be some interesting movement. Just take note that April-June of last year was bullish and parabolic rise. Almost all of the traditional global markets are green right now, so we might want to take that into consideration as well.

David thinks BTC is beginning its next parabolic bull run already: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg54255809#msg54255809

I think Q2 will be bullish overall, but I'm not not nearly as optimistic as him. Still thinking something more along these lines:

With BTC following the stock market so closely, these factors may become relevant:

• The crude oil market is a dumpster fire, down another 19% on the weekly open and below $15 a barrel now. Much more damage than this and the heavily leveraged US oil industry is going to shutter, or require a quick (and large) bailout.
• Earnings season is here: Earnings are set for their biggest dive since late 2009 — and it gets worse from here
• I have a nagging suspicion that economic and social restrictions are being relaxed too soon, and we'll see a second wave of infections sooner than the market expects.

The market is very unpredictable right now. Another leg up is still possible in the next week or so. Liquidity still favors the bulls. However I would say a significant pullback (probably to the $5,000s) is a matter of time.

[Globb0]

"Sell in May and Go Away" didn't came from nowhere.

Sell in May then stay at home and save lives     

It still feels sideways at the moment, maybe even down on the daily? did we get our up from the up signal? a bit.





Into the hourly view, we see not a lot going on.

The flag pole pattern threatened to happen, would have broken us through but didn't.



Volume is nothing special and we are back to the flip flop.

[FullNode]

Selling in May and leaving, this rule does not apply for this year, the halving is close and I am almost sure of an upward movement in the to $8,500 o $ 9,000.

[exstasie]

Selling in May and leaving, this rule does not apply for this year, the halving is close and I am almost sure of an upward movement in the of $ 9,000.

I think the opposite. All the more reason to sell. "Buy the rumor, sell the news."

I think $9K+ is very possible by the end of Q2 but the closer we get to the halving, the closer the possibility of a selloff. After 5 or 6 green weekly candles, don't be surprised when we get a few red ones.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

• The crude oil market is a dumpster fire, down another 19% on the weekly open and below $15 a barrel now. Much more damage than this and the heavily leveraged US oil industry is going to shutter, or require a quick

It's because of contango. Some futures are rated at 13$, some at 23$ depends on delivery time (first one (13$) has delivery time set to May and expires tommorow. No one wants oil even at 13$ now because of storage shortage). Contract that expires in Jun is evaluated almost 80% higher, 28$ for oil delivered in July and 30$ for oil delivered in August. It's not as bad as it looks like but no matter if its 13$ or 40$ i agree that the corporate bond market for shale oil companies in the US is a ticking bomb.

[exstasie]

• The crude oil market is a dumpster fire, down another 19% on the weekly open and below $15 a barrel now. Much more damage than this and the heavily leveraged US oil industry is going to shutter, or require a quick

It's because of contango. Some futures are rated at 13$, some at 23$ depends on delivery time (first one (13$) has delivery time set to May and expires tommorow. No one wants oil even at 13$ now because of storage shortage). Contract that expires in Jun is evaluated almost 80% higher, 28$ for oil delivered in July and 30$ for oil delivered in August. It's not as bad as it looks like.

Contango explains the price difference between May and June contracts, but it doesn't explain why oil is crashing. I assume oil is crashing (now down 80% for the year) because of plummeting demand as global trade dies down. In that way, it may be a leading indicator of what's to come for stock markets, which I feel haven't fully priced in the revenue and GDP costs of the slowdown.

I'm no expert though, just another spectator watching the fireworks.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Contango explains the price difference between May and June contracts, but it doesn't explain why oil is crashing.

It's extreme case. Average contango for oil is equal to few percent. Now its close to 80%. Currently, Oil is worth 11$ per barrel (damn 2 $ down from my last post) but you can earn +10$ per barrel only for storing it for a month. Tomorrow this contract will close and everyone will forget about it. New one will have different delivery time and will be priced ~20$. Yes it shows how extremely low demand we had in April compared to high supply that float market without OPEC+ but even more shows that everyone filled "storage bags" to the max and is not even able to get more in May and short Jun contract to earn 10$ per barrel guaranteed profit. Such high contango shows short term storage shortage. I would not look at contract that expires tomorrow in current circumstances.

[exstasie]

Contango explains the price difference between May and June contracts, but it doesn't explain why oil is crashing.

It's extreme case. Average contango for oil is equal to few percent. Now its close to 80%. Currently, Oil is worth 11$ per barrel (damn 2 $ down from my last post) but you can earn +10$ per barrel only for storing it for a month. Tomorrow this contract will close and everyone will forget about it. New one will have different delivery time and will be priced ~20$.

You're a real glass half full kind of guy, eh?

Crude just dropped 38% in a day and 82% on the year. You think everyone will forget about that?

I would say it this way: The current contract is the real price. The price differential between May and June implies an anticipated recovery by June. As you point out, the difference is normally only a couple % to account for storage costs.

The June contract will drop due to premium decay and if the economic outlook worsens, it'll be right back near $10 again. That's the glass half empty scenario anyway.....

[Globb0]

At some point when supply comes cheaper than extraction they will be shutting down operations and switching to buyer mode.

Relaxation of quarantine and unjamming of distribution systems would likely case a resurgence in oil price.


The top point was the same at some points in BTC history. Buying directly was more efficient than buying mining equipment and then mining.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

You're a real glass half full kind of guy, eh?

Only when i'm talking about bitcoin

Meanwhile OIL price.

link

You still call it "real price"? Its contract price for delivery oil in May it may even go to ~0. This price shows not only shortage of oil demand but also short term shortage of storage and no trader will buy it now because he has to sell it today/tomorrow and a bunch of guys who bought month ago at 20$ are saving money selling now. I might be wrong (not the first time ) but it will close and next contract will open at ~20$ range.
 
Edit: -35$! now. Didn't expect that.


Damn i went way to far with this off-topic. Its BTC TA thread not oil thread. Sorry for this. Back to BTC. RED ALLERT.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Oh well, all has been answered in the last couple of days.

$7250 got rejected again, the green candles around $6950 has been broken, and this scenario could point out to another bear trap. Although the movement is very slow and we might not see those big dumps, but definitely a bear flag has formed already.

[Plaguedeath]

Edit: -35$! now. Didn't expect that.


Damn i went way to far with this off-topic. Its BTC TA thread not oil thread. Sorry for this. Back to BTC. RED ALLERT.

You will get payed by buying crude oil
And hold for long time and then sell it
Twice profit

[Globb0]

You're a real glass half full kind of guy, eh?

Only when i'm talking about bitcoin

Meanwhile OIL price.

link

You still call it "real price"? Its contract price for delivery oil in May it may even go to ~0. This price shows not only shortage of oil demand but also short term shortage of storage and no trader will buy it now because he has to sell it today/tomorrow and a bunch of guys who bought month ago at 20$ are saving money selling now. I might be wrong (not the first time ) but it will close and next contract will open at ~20$ range.
 
Edit: -35$! now. Didn't expect that.


Damn i went way to far with this off-topic. Its BTC TA thread not oil thread. Sorry for this. Back to BTC. RED ALLERT.

Its all good everything in the world is part of the system. Discussion is welcomed.


Negative interest rates, now You pay me to take oil? wtf?

I definitely failed in the predicting the future sweepstakes 2010 I got none of these right.


Working at the moment I will get to the charts later, I fear mor of the same old side rumble though ofc

G0

[Globb0]

Edit: -35$! now. Didn't expect that.


Damn i went way to far with this off-topic. Its BTC TA thread not oil thread. Sorry for this. Back to BTC. RED ALLERT.

You will get payed by buying crude oil
And hold for long time and then sell it
Twice profit

I don't know if you will, what does the negative number even mean? how can something cost less than 0 in the future?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I don't know if you will, what does the negative number even mean? how can something cost less than 0 in the future?

As I already pointed out its extreme case but I didn't expect it to be that extreme. Negative prices has never happened before. What does that mean? This contract closes today. XXX barrels was contracted, XXX barrels was produced and XXX barrels has to be sent to buyers. If you hold this contract till tomorrow you will receive oil in May or you will have to pay for rolling contract (which simply means paying for storing actual goods. This fee is enormous now due to storage shortage - to be honest i don't know how much is that). Most retail trades does not want to store 1000 barrels in home (JK), so they need to sell. Everyone that actually need oil already bought to the maximum of storage space, and they can't get more even with negative price.

So in other words price is negative because no one from actual users (f.e. refineries) is able to get more oil in May and a bunch of traders needs to get out of trade to not have problem with xxx barrels in front of their house (also paying for transport) or being hit with contract roll fee (which I don't know how high it is in current circumstances). So you (retail trader) pay someone (that's what selling in negative price is) for taking this risk out of you. Whole last month i was reading about going long on oil because Trump won't let oil to be that low for long. Those who did that now has to sell.

At least that's how I understand this extreme case.

[exstasie]

I don't know if you will, what does the negative number even mean? how can something cost less than 0 in the future?

As I already pointed out its extreme case but I didn't expect it to be that extreme. Negative prices has never happened before.

That should serve as a reminder of the gravity of this situation. The scale of economic loss entailed by these shutdowns is completely unprecedented. We've never seen GDP contractions this big this quickly, or unemployment numbers nearly this large. Oil underpins the entire global economy, so when it collapses (due to both oversupply and unprecedented lack of demand) I think we should take note. It's not going to be "back to normal" in June no matter how much everyone hopes for it.

In a way, the oil market is acting much more rationally than stocks, which seem totally disconnected from the economy right now.