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JayJuanGee
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May 08, 2020, 07:45:13 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #121

Its all fair comments. ATMO I'm not risking anything.

This is open and transparent.

I have been right a few signals though now, must have the correct stops. That's a bit I still need to learn.

I am kind of second-guessing my above response to you, and probably, I am more inclined to assert that you should actually play around with actual money.. rather than abstaining.. in other words, the second option is better than the first, and the first was kind of a joke (and maybe a warning, too).

I personally believe that any of us learn way more about ourselves and even the strengths of our convictions, our risk tolerance, our cashflow, our view of the asset (short term and long term) and insights regarding how to combine these factors and allocate our various risks when we use actual money rather than mere theory that has little to no stake in the prediction matter.

A problem that many many people tend to have is that they immediately want to go BIG or go home, and fuck all of that.   No need to do that.. I think that starting with the bare minimum that any particular exchange will allow you will allow you to play with some of the matters. Many of us should be able to figure out ways to afford minimum order amounts.. which are probably around a few dollars...and exchanges vary, which allows flexibility.. and some do not even seem to have minimums...

Let me see if I can elaborate on the idea of doing small amounts.  I told my story a large number of times, and, so when I started with my system in 2015 that sells on the way up and buys on the way down and attempts to structure such buy/sells in ways that do not give any shits about whether the BTC price moves up/down, there were many times that I was only making pennies each time that my orders were filled. 

I made sure that all of the trading fees were included in calculating whether my trades were executed in order that I could figure out ways that I was actually making profits from every single order fill, but other than that, I set up a system that I believed was designed in order that I would largely have gains NO matter which way the BTC price went, and I have been employing tweaked variations of my system ever since.

Surely the beginning hardly involved any profits at all, yet I was learning about myself and my tolerances along the way and also my record keeping and the way that I would account for my activity choices.. sure I made quite a few mistakes, too.

Even if I was not making a lot of profits, I used to consider that my goals were to learn about myself, and just using my buy/sell orders as a means to insure my BTC holdings, somewhat, against what seemed to be inevitable volatility.. and also my built-in assumptions continued to be that the BTC prices would go up in the longer run, even though I did not know what the fuck they would do in the shorter run.

Of course, your current system is attempting to predict BTC's price direction, so maybe you have to be a lot more careful based on your differing assumptions; however, in my case my BTC trading was structured around not knowing or even giving much if any shits regarding the short term BTC price movements while making sure that I was also o.k. keeping my assumptions that bitcoin would go up more than it went down in the longer term.

Even though some of your system, assumptions and ways that you employ are different from mine, there are still probably ways that you can attempt to design around your differences and figure out ways to tweak, including maybe even figuring out ways that you can have set ups that cause you to win no matter what.. if that is possible or even one of your goals.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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May 08, 2020, 10:06:51 PM
 #122

You are right. Nobody got rich by procrastinating.

You have to go for it.

Or else you are the could have been guy

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May 08, 2020, 10:11:29 PM
 #123

I wanted to add something more I have been telling the kids these days in lockdown.


They are finding some xbox games hard, (I know I spoiled them with an xbox x)


I told them this. If games were easy what would you learn? what would be the challenge?


We do it because it is hard applies here.

Then as you finally crack it you learned something.




You never learn in easy things, just "see I was right Im so great" which in actual fact is massively negative





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May 09, 2020, 02:47:15 AM
Merited by Globb0 (2)
 #124

I wanted to add something more I have been telling the kids these days in lockdown.


They are finding some xbox games hard, (I know I spoiled them with an xbox x)


I told them this. If games were easy what would you learn? what would be the challenge?


We do it because it is hard applies here.

Then as you finally crack it you learned something.




You never learn in easy things, just "see I was right Im so great" which in actual fact is massively negative








https://youtu.be/vMtjnrBcHdI?t=25



“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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May 09, 2020, 09:23:54 AM
Last edit: May 09, 2020, 09:34:07 AM by Globb0
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #125



I am more inclined to assert that you should actually play around with actual money..

I slept on it, I think its not even good enough to just have the correct stops (though they are important)

I think to maximise things you need to be sat in front of it, reacting and adjusting. That feels far more like gambling, shall I cash out or wait on a bet type thing. Similar, maybe indicating this is just betting of a sort.


This high maintenance approach seems in direct contrast to your more passive set it and forget it approach with ladders.  Its all interesting to me.


I also got a few more free courses on udemy. So I will find some time to continue the learning.




Meanwhile in Bitcoinlandia  (like it Jay?  Smiley )



Something of a reversal indicator (not always if *retests then up)

Most interesting was the sudden turn in the moving trend line. See it suddeny switched to the bottom of my channel and now is hugging that line. Weird coincidence? or does it mean something? Im not sure.

RSI is still in its peaky area.


Hourly is there a hint of the *retest here, early to say yet on the daily



So you would just have to be watching for these signals all the time
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May 09, 2020, 05:05:45 PM
Last edit: May 09, 2020, 05:16:29 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by Globb0 (5), Hueristic (1), Tytanowy Janusz (1)
 #126


I am more inclined to assert that you should actually play around with actual money..

I slept on it, I think its not even good enough to just have the correct stops (though they are important)

I think to maximise things you need to be sat in front of it, reacting and adjusting. That feels far more like gambling, shall I cash out or wait on a bet type thing. Similar, maybe indicating this is just betting of a sort.


This high maintenance approach seems in direct contrast to your more passive set it and forget it approach with ladders.  Its all interesting to me.

Even though my system strives towards mostly passivity in terms of attempting to cause a certain amount of emotional neutrality in regards to BTC price direction, over the years, I have frequently reverted to thinking about how my btc buy/sell orders are placed and whether emotional neutrality is sufficiently achieved and maintained.  

There seems to be no real way to completely remove some emotions especially since I am largely attempting to stack towards an upwards BTC price direction preference.

Believe me, I have given some (maybe superficial) thoughts to how increasing the stakes (such as using leverage or figuring out ways to short) might change the dynamics of my system and my comfort levels in regards to my BTC order placements, and frequently I get too nervous when I consider the possible employment of some of those other tools.  

I am not really sure if I might be handicapping myself, but my ongoing strategy has not really been involving shorts.  My ongoing system has been employing the placement of longs and closing those longs and if the BTC price drops to employ new longs with the money generated from closing longs at higher prices.  

There are not too many members who have attempted to publicly describe their strategy as being similar to mine, but supplementing something like my system with the employment of shorts into the mix.  The only member that I recall attempting to publicly describe his system in such terms is d_eddie, but even he said that it was very time consuming, and I am thinking that he might have been feeling like he is spinning his wheels a bit much, once he tries to incorporate prediction in the mix.  So, yeah such a system will likely work a bit better if the trend is largely down, but sometimes surprise upward movements could end up wiping out most if not all profits, if you had been betting down and then the price ends up moving against you.

I also got a few more free courses on udemy. So I will find some time to continue the learning.

One advantage of what you seem to be attempting Globb0 is that you seem to be attempting to make your learnings your own system, so of course, learning whatever techniques that you can feel comfortable employing.  Each trader does seem to have his/her own angle in terms of which tools and indicators s/he relies upon in order to filter through information and to make order placement decisions.

Meanwhile in Bitcoinlandia  (like it Jay?  Smiley )

You mean do I like the recent dip?  Which might mean that we are just holding off from going above $10k or that we might end up reversing from here?  Either way, I am o.k.  Of course, I prefer up, but I really can understand that there could be a bit of a short-term deeper correction, especially since we have not really had one for close to two months.

I doubt that a deeper or longer correction is necessary in order to continue up...so this might be merely extended consolidation and coiling for a bit of time until there is a bit more bull readiness to continue with UP.. or at least allowing a bit more buy support to continue to build up and to catch up before resuming up.  

In our current situation, my latest BTC sell orders executed at around $9,300 $9,450, $9,700 and $9,950... My next BTC sell orders are $10,200, $10,450, $10,700 and $10,950, and thereafter my sell orders go up to $500 (instead of $250) increments until $15,000 and then go up to $1,000 (instead of $500) increments.  My next buy orders are $9,200, $9,050, $8,800, $8,550, $8,300, $8,050, $7,800, and continuing similarly all the way down and pretty much stay in $250 increments all the way down.

By the way, Globb0... this might be a bit of an aside.  You can employ some kind of system that you know works, no matter what is the BTC price direction, that does not involve betting.  I engage in that behavior, sometimes.  I start to feel as if the BTC price has greater chances to move in one direction or another, and I may even get some feelings that I tend to be correct a lot more than I am not correct, but I still do not change my buy/sell orders, merely because I have feelings and I believe that the price is more likely to go in one direction or another.  When you have active orders, however, you will likely become more actively engaged in paying attention to some details that you might have otherwise overlooked, which also might affect your thinking in terms of whether you want to employ some extra ammunition in one direction or another, and also if you have active orders, it is way easier to just tweak them in accordance with your expectation rather than placing new orders, when you do not have any orders outstanding.  That's my sense.



Something of a reversal indicator (not always if *retests then up)

Most interesting was the sudden turn in the moving trend line. See it suddeny switched to the bottom of my channel and now is hugging that line. Weird coincidence? or does it mean something? Im not sure.

RSI is still in its peaky area.

Hourly is there a hint of the *retest here, early to say yet on the daily



So you would just have to be watching for these signals all the time

I admit that I do look at these kinds of plottings sometimes, just for curiosity sake, but they don't really affect me in the short term.  Of course, if you are making bets, based on indicators that you see, then surely the indicators can change fairly rapidly, but I don't know if that means you act on it, or not.. that would depend I supposed in terms of if you believe that you should let the price come to you rather than moving your orders around too much.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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May 10, 2020, 04:56:47 AM
Merited by Globb0 (2)
 #127

I slept on it, I think its not even good enough to just have the correct stops (though they are important)

I think to maximise things you need to be sat in front of it, reacting and adjusting.

I actually find staring at charts all day to be really harmful. It leads to all sorts of anxiety and second guessing, sometimes even terrible emotional behavior like pulling stop losses when unexpected things occur.

I like to have firm rules set on my trades (entry, exit, stop loss) so I can walk away knowing that any potential loss will be a small one. Then I check the charts once a day (or twice, tops) and adjust targets and stops as needed. This at least works for trading on the 4-hour, daily, and higher time frames. Intraday trading is just too stressful and demanding.

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May 10, 2020, 09:35:43 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #128

I slept on it, I think its not even good enough to just have the correct stops (though they are important)

I think to maximise things you need to be sat in front of it, reacting and adjusting.

I actually find staring at charts all day to be really harmful. It leads to all sorts of anxiety and second guessing, sometimes even terrible emotional behavior like pulling stop losses when unexpected things occur.

I like to have firm rules set on my trades (entry, exit, stop loss) so I can walk away knowing that any potential loss will be a small one. Then I check the charts once a day (or twice, tops) and adjust targets and stops as needed. This at least works for trading on the 4-hour, daily, and higher time frames. Intraday trading is just too stressful and demanding.

yeah, i stopped trading because of self-discipline lack, it is better to analyse, invest and leave it that way, then trading and non-stop thinking about your trades, it is just not good for health, and this is too risky as well
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May 10, 2020, 11:14:20 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1)
 #129

Doesn't probably help I am a bit compulsive obsessive, or it does I don't know. I don't ever do things lightly.


Todays daily chart, Daily candle hasn't closed yet, still time for it to not be broken into the resistance. Also the resistance grew wider with that pointy tip.

The reversal signal at the top was there and no retest came to push up higher




On the hourly chart what a contrast, the RSI is in the gutter here.

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May 10, 2020, 04:57:32 PM
Merited by Globb0 (2)
 #130

Doesn't probably help I am a bit compulsive obsessive, or it does I don't know. I don't ever do things lightly.

#metoo

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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May 11, 2020, 09:43:13 AM
 #131

OKey dOKey

Closed and didn't break the support zone. And in fact now we have a bigger support zone.

It has dipped back into the channel, though I'm not sure if that is still relevant anymore.




A BIG triangle is coming to a head on the weekly view.

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May 11, 2020, 11:06:22 AM
 #132

the 1hour chart (stamp) looks a bit triple-bottomish like the 4 hour chart on may 18th. we will rise towards $10k and beyond within this month.
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May 11, 2020, 11:07:46 PM
Last edit: June 12, 2023, 03:16:40 AM by STT
 #133

The lows are the 200 day average, thats big so it will bounce for sure though we cant be sure how far it will skip across the surface before it sinks or deflects upwards.
  Here is the 2 day average which is a harsh measure of momentum and price only stays above when very bullish, 8 day is more consistent also above at present:



So if we could get above 8800 or 8900 I'm more confident or slightly more accurately speaking that 50 ma on 1hr bars.   I think it has to work out further the volume of the big red bar sell, 9200 was a really good sell price today as its going to take more of a push to get past this.

Going on Globbo's chart and bigger time frames matter more, we should expect the market to throw off people and trade down to 7800 before any bounce.  So we dip below 200 day average, its only an indicator so quite possible and then trade back, fake out then bullish attempt.

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May 12, 2020, 08:44:25 AM
Last edit: May 12, 2020, 08:56:35 AM by Globb0
Merited by cryptomaniac_xxx (2)
 #134

Hello hello gentlepersons


Welcome to the new paradigm


Here's the chart for today, already another sign. Need to wait for the new green candle to close, if its bigger than the red chunk off we go up.



Cautiously optimistic here


Positive vibes positive vibes. Come on everyone!


*edited to add Weekly chart*

Going on Globbo's chart and bigger time frames matter more

Here we see the 1 week candles chart. Intersting I think I spotted the bitcoin "angle"    hehe    Cheesy

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May 12, 2020, 02:14:37 PM
 #135

^^ How is every body doing? Time to start fresh again.

We shouldn't wait for the next 1,385 days to act, start today.  Grin

I'm looking at $9250-$9300!

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May 13, 2020, 06:53:12 AM
Last edit: May 14, 2020, 07:28:18 AM by Tytanowy Janusz
Merited by El duderino_ (4), Globb0 (2)
 #136

Its all fair comments. ATMO I'm not risking anything.

This is open and transparent.

I have been right a few signals though now, must have the correct stops. That's a bit I still need to learn.

My suggestion is that:
1- just start. Don't wait. Minimum bet on binance is ~10$. You can start with 50$. How much are you risking? 1$ daily? This is nothing compared to lesson you will receive from each trade. You will see that buy/sell decision is much harder and completely different from writing post with possible buy signal.
2- add some spices. 50$ won't make you fill chills (butterflies in your stomach.). Something like ~x% profit = real word reward that you will set for yourself. Each fucked up trade is equal to ... whatever you imagine. But fucked up trade should be trade that you cheated with (f.e. push Stop loss lower - simple every action that is risky and in most cases leads to huge loses) not trade that you lost on. Because there would be many of them. Don't let your brain think that lost trade is something bad. Cheated trade is something bad even if it was profitable. Lost trade is like fuel that you have to pay for while going to regular job.

Doing that you will not only learn TA but also money management which might be even more important than good entry/exit point from statistic point of view (that's what TA is). Without good money management and self-discipline you can earn from 10 trades and then loss everything from 1 trade.
How to train money management and self-discipline:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5122226.msg50225995#msg50225995

and this is a golden rule how not to freak out. I'm still working on that:) :
I actually find staring at charts all day to be really harmful. It leads to all sorts of anxiety and second guessing, sometimes even terrible emotional behavior like pulling stop losses when unexpected things occur.

I like to have firm rules set on my trades (entry, exit, stop loss) so I can walk away knowing that any potential loss will be a small one. Then I check the charts once a day (or twice, tops) and adjust targets and stops as needed. This at least works for trading on the 4-hour, daily, and higher time frames. Intraday trading is just too stressful and demanding.

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May 13, 2020, 08:16:32 AM
 #137

Thanks for your thoughts and the link.

I will take a look at it.

Cheers
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May 13, 2020, 10:14:23 AM
 #138

Todays daily candles chart seems to confirm the reversal. Closed green and bigger than the red.



The hourly chart is uninteresting today, a slight amble up
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May 14, 2020, 09:31:17 AM
 #139

So seems another correct call there. Shame I didn't listen to the JFDI advice yet.





On the hourly, the dip is recovered a nice bowl shape, I am wondering if a handle will form now

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May 14, 2020, 09:36:37 AM
Merited by Globb0 (1)
 #140

So seems another correct call there. Shame I didn't listen to the JFDI advice yet.

The best time to start is yesterday.

The second best time to start is today. 


1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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