Globb0 BTC charts

[Tytanowy Janusz]

But anyone who waits today might miss a golden opportunity of buying Bitcoin priced less than $10,000 because it might never fall anymore.

Experienced investor knows that it is not about catching every train no matter how fast is it going and what are the risks.
Experienced investor knows that the most important thing is not to lose.
Experienced investor knows that there will always be another train, another opportunity
Experienced investor knows that it is not important when you bought. Below 10 000 or above. It is important to minimalize risks. Buying close to 2.5 year resistant (trend line) is risky.

[Wind_FURY]

But anyone who waits today might miss a golden opportunity of buying Bitcoin priced less than $10,000 because it might never fall anymore.

Experienced investor knows that it is not about catching every train no matter how fast is it going and what are the risks.
Experienced investor knows that the most important thing is not to lose.
Experienced investor knows that there will always be another train, another opportunity
Experienced investor knows that it is not important when you bought. Below 10 000 or above. It is important to minimalize risks. Buying close to 2.5 year resistant (trend line) is risky.

In my opinion, breaking that line would take Bitcoin on its path to a new ATH.

Plus for context, let me post this again,



Experienced investor also knows that he/she does NOT want to be the girl in that picture.

[Globb0]

She could be the trailing stop. Keeping up just behind ready for the pullback from the kid. Closed! Profit!


I didn't do a chart for a while, don't want to spam boring sideways.


Here is a refresh, with the support and resistances from the last few weeks. Its looking kind of crowded



I wouldn't mind if things were a bit more positive.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

In my opinion, breaking that line would take Bitcoin on its path to a new ATH.

Agree, but based on statistics it will pump, then dump to ~11k, than pump again. So even after breakthrough pump there will be buying opportunity close to current price. It is not about to earn every single $ from every price change. It is better to earn 10% during 30% pump with low risk rather than earn 20% from 30% pump with huge risk.

Experienced investor also knows that he/she does NOT want to be the girl in that picture.

Experienced investor is never there. If you miss buy opportunity you are close to short opportunity. There will always be next train. Optimize risk and never let your emotions affect your trading.

[exstasie]

I've been through 2 bubbles so I know what it looks like. Price has remained stuck in a ~$2,000 range for the last 2 months, so.......no. Anyone who perceives urgency to buy right now is a perma-bull who doesn't have a realistic sense of (or care for) whether price could fall.

But anyone who waits today might miss a golden opportunity of buying Bitcoin priced less than $10,000 because it might never fall anymore.

The flip side of that: anyone buying today might miss a golden opportunity to buy BTC in the $6,000s because it might fall again. The unpredictability of markets cuts both ways.

This still applies:

A breakdown below $8.6K could easily reach the $6K area. That's a 35% gain from here; 35% more BTC for someone waiting to buy the dip. On the other hand, an upwards breakout will occur above $10.5K. That's 14% above the current price.

Are you willing to risk losing 15% of your coins for a chance to gain 35%?

If the answer is no, then holding makes sense. Those who are more concerned about preserving fiat capital would probably feel the opposite.

[Wind_FURY]

In my opinion, breaking that line would take Bitcoin on its path to a new ATH.

Agree, but based on statistics it will pump, then dump to ~11k, than pump again. So even after breakthrough pump there will be buying opportunity close to current price. It is not about to earn every single $ from every price change. It is better to earn 10% during 30% pump with low risk rather than earn 20% from 30% pump with huge risk.

Experienced investor also knows that he/she does NOT want to be the girl in that picture.

Experienced investor is never there. If you miss buy opportunity you are close to short opportunity. There will always be next train. Optimize risk and never let your emotions affect your trading.

OK, he/she will never be like the girl in the picture. Then what do you believe, is the "experienced trader, who is never there", on a short opportunity, or a long opportunity?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

OK, he/she will never be like the girl in the picture. Then what do you believe, is the "experienced trader, who is never there", on a short opportunity, or a long opportunity?

I'm saing that experienced trader is never chasing a speeding train. He is on the train already or is waiting for next one. It doesn't matter which direction is it going.

[Wind_FURY]

OK, he/she will never be like the girl in the picture. Then what do you believe, is the "experienced trader, who is never there", on a short opportunity, or a long opportunity?

I'm saing that experienced trader is never chasing a speeding train.

I never said that you were wrong, and I believe you.

He is on the train already or is waiting for next one. It doesn't matter which direction is it going.

OK, then on what train are the experienced traders currently riding? The short train, or the long train?

[exstasie]

OK, then on what train are the experienced traders currently riding? The short train, or the long train?

There are many different ways to trade. Some traders are accumulating shorts in this range with plans to flip long above certain levels like $9,500 or $10.5K. Others are accumulating longs with plans to flip short below $8,600 or $8,100. Both are acceptable from a risk vs. reward perspective.

Most experienced traders I know are either on the sidelines waiting for a substantive breakout, or keeping their positions small while trading the range. I'm on the fence myself, not trading much at all. I'm holding both fiat and coins and I have no margin positions.

[Wind_FURY]

OK, then on what train are the experienced traders currently riding? The short train, or the long train?

There are many different ways to trade. Some traders are accumulating shorts in this range with plans to flip long above certain levels like $9,500 or $10.5K. Others are accumulating longs with plans to flip short below $8,600 or $8,100. Both are acceptable from a risk vs. reward perspective.

I believe that's trading like the girl in the third panel, which makes my standpoint.

Most experienced traders I know are either on the sidelines waiting for a substantive breakout, or keeping their positions small while trading the range. I'm on the fence myself, not trading much at all. I'm holding both fiat and coins and I have no margin positions.

That's also like the girl in the third panel.

Do we buy now and buy the dip if Bitcoin crashes, or wait?

[Globb0]

Meanwhile the chart isn't exactly on fire. Maybe the girl is sitting down for a rest.

[btc78]

She could be the trailing stop. Keeping up just behind ready for the pullback from the kid. Closed! Profit!


I didn't do a chart for a while, don't want to spam boring sideways.


Here is a refresh, with the support and resistances from the last few weeks. Its looking kind of crowded



I wouldn't mind if things were a bit more positive.

Resistance seems to be staying strong for the past almost 1 month now,so i believe that we will be having this boring market for another weeks or month.


we will be in waiting game again now,to find if our holding is worth enough or need to be transferred to another sets of currencies.

OK, he/she will never be like the girl in the picture. Then what do you believe, is the "experienced trader, who is never there", on a short opportunity, or a long opportunity?

I'm saing that experienced trader is never chasing a speeding train. He is on the train already or is waiting for next one. It doesn't matter which direction is it going.

at least it is day trader or Holder,because we are far different from each others ,while others are chasing train people like us choose to remain sitting and calm.

[exstasie]

There are many different ways to trade. Some traders are accumulating shorts in this range with plans to flip long above certain levels like $9,500 or $10.5K. Others are accumulating longs with plans to flip short below $8,600 or $8,100. Both are acceptable from a risk vs. reward perspective.

I believe that's trading like the girl in the third panel, which makes my standpoint.

Not really, since the market isn't going up. That's the bottom line here actually: the meme doesn't apply at all since the market is ranging. The price isn't running away from anyone.

If the market does break upwards, traders who flip long aren't waiting for a dip, so price isn't running away from them. The same goes for traders who accumulated longs in this range.

This is why the smart way to approach this trading range is with stop buys above the range and stop sells below it. That means immediately reacting to a breakout, rather than waiting and hoping price comes to you, which is what's happening in the second and third panel of that cartoon.

[Wind_FURY]

There are many different ways to trade. Some traders are accumulating shorts in this range with plans to flip long above certain levels like $9,500 or $10.5K. Others are accumulating longs with plans to flip short below $8,600 or $8,100. Both are acceptable from a risk vs. reward perspective.

I believe that's trading like the girl in the third panel, which makes my standpoint.

Not really, since the market isn't going up. That's the bottom line here actually: the meme doesn't apply at all since the market is ranging. The price isn't running away from anyone.

If the market does break upwards, traders who flip long aren't waiting for a dip, so price isn't running away from them. The same goes for traders who accumulated longs in this range.

This is why the smart way to approach this trading range is with stop buys above the range and stop sells below it. That means immediately reacting to a breakout, rather than waiting and hoping price comes to you, which is what's happening in the second and third panel of that cartoon.

I believe "not yet", if he/she is treating the market like she's the girl in the first panel, which will eventually become the second the girl in the panel, then the third.

[JayJuanGee]

Most experienced traders I know are either on the sidelines waiting for a substantive breakout, or keeping their positions small while trading the range. I'm on the fence myself, not trading much at all. I'm holding both fiat and coins and I have no margin positions.

That's also like the girl in the third panel.

Do we buy now and buy the dip if Bitcoin crashes, or wait?

I don't see why any kind of investment in bitcoin needs to be BIG or go home.

If anyone has already been in bitcoin for a while, then they have already largely established their position, but if they are new to bitcoin then they are in the process of establishing their position, which surely newbies do not tend to get excited about getting into bitcoin during consolidation periods, and might even get a bit bored with consolidation.

If anyone has already established their position, but they still have a cashflow in fiat, then likely in times like this, some of that incoming cashflow can be used to buy BTC right away, some can be plugged into a buying on the dip set up, and another portion of that cashflow can be put in a pot to be used for larger BTC price dips, if such larger dips were to occur. 

So, the way of dividing up the sum of money that is available would not be too much different whether you have already acquired a decent BTC position as compared to someone who is accumulating into a BTC position, except maybe someone who is accumulated might become a bit more concerned about front-loading the investment strategy, somewhat, so they would less likely end up being like that girl in the picture.

Front-loading does run the opportunity cost risks of missing out on a possible major BTC price drop, but I have always considered that kind of risk to be less problematic than feeling like the girl, if the BTC price goes in the UPpity direction, rather than dipping.

It's anyone's guess which way BTC prices are going to go from here.. at least in terms of our ongoing seemingly uneventful BTC price range that has failed/refused to break out of $8,300 to $10,200---- give or take what the actual important boundaries should be.

[STT]

10k for the next couple years would be perfectly positive, way better then what I'd expect but I've always underestimated BTC possible moves.   It does truly suck for trading though, we've had this previously and everyone was bored and then got knocked off their chair sideways by the giant move that halved the price.   I'm fine if the price stays high if thats what helps the market stay healthy and if it has to go lower too then so be it, prices moves where it has to be to involve the greatest number of participants so we dont get to choose if higher is better or not.    There isnt any real sign yet, no trend means trades are more dangerous and they double back on themselves.

 

golden opportunity of buying Bitcoin priced less than $10,000

That sounds more like a long term hold then a trade.   Its way less risky to buy into a trend thats clearly moving in a direction then guess the bottom price.   So that picture of the girl trying to catch up misses that we can re-enter a position any time we like, the trader will buy at 11k and be happy about it as the risk reward ratio is better then when the price was 10k.     Its the same at tops or peak price, dont be unhappy if you sold and it rose another 1k as it can get very unstable after a large amount of gains and need to reset.   Hold small amounts increase as we are in a trend, reduce and realise profits and hold a little near the top; thats technique I see traders use to reduce risk on main markets and I dont see it would be different here.   If its about buy and hold no matter what then the size is often much smaller, unleveraged, etc.

[JayJuanGee]

10k for the next couple years would be perfectly positive, way better then what I'd expect but I've always underestimated BTC possible moves.   It does truly suck for trading though, we've had this previously and everyone was bored and then got knocked off their chair sideways by the giant move that halved the price.   

There is about a snowballs chance in hell that bitcoin is all of a sudden going to transition into some kind of stably priced asset, which is frequently touted out as if it were some kind of real and meaningful possibility, and even you, STT, recognize that volatility has been part of bitcoin's way of being, and likely to continue in such direction... Volatility is one of the main things that we can count on in bitcoin, even moreso than what direction the BTC price is going to go.

I'm fine if the price stays high if thats what helps the market stay healthy and if it has to go lower too then so be it, prices moves where it has to be to involve the greatest number of participants so we dont get to choose if higher is better or not.    There isnt any real sign yet, no trend means trades are more dangerous and they double back on themselves.

Whether BTC prices are currently high or low is surely a relative assessment.

The trend seems to continue to be UP, even though some people like to proclaim that bitcoin is in a bear market, which hardly would be factually true for anyone who has continued to buy bitcoin. The longer you have been buying bitcoin, the further up that you would be in profits, and surely anyone might feel hesitations regarding whether the UP trend is going to continue - which then would be a retroactive assessment that we were too high.. but I am surely am not going to proclaim the future before it actually happens.. even though I see no reason to really speculate that the ongoing UP trend is not going to continue, which just continues to mean that bitcoin is likely to continue as a great ongoing asymmetric bet, in which investors, into it, are likely not even going to need to use any leverage in order to have great chances of experiencing decently good price performance.

golden opportunity of buying Bitcoin priced less than $10,000

That sounds more like a long term hold then a trade.   Its way less risky to buy into a trend thats clearly moving in a direction then guess the bottom price.   So that picture of the girl trying to catch up misses that we can re-enter a position any time we like, the trader will buy at 11k and be happy about it as the risk reward ratio is better then when the price was 10k.     Its the same at tops or peak price, dont be unhappy if you sold and it rose another 1k as it can get very unstable after a large amount of gains and need to reset.   Hold small amounts increase as we are in a trend, reduce and realise profits and hold a little near the top; thats technique I see traders use to reduce risk on main markets and I dont see it would be different here.   If its about buy and hold no matter what then the size is often much smaller, unleveraged, etc.

I do believe that we have seen plenty of times in BTC's history when there were a lot of speculation that another opportunity to buy at the same price or lower was going to come, and it never did happen.  Probably no need to go over each of those times, and surely it continues to be speculation whether we are in one of those times, currently.  Sometimes we may need to work with more specifics, if we are trying to consider what to do, currently, exactly.  Even a lot of traders, in bitcoin, will proclaim that they are only trading with a small portion of their BTC stash, so they do maintain a decent amount of BTC just stacked away for UP, even if they might be fucking around (aka trading)  with a smaller portion of their stash... cannot necessarily fault them, and if they engage in too much risky behavior, they may end up depleting or losing their "trading" stash rather than building it.

[dragonvslinux]

I'm fine if the price stays high if thats what helps the market stay healthy and if it has to go lower too then so be it, prices moves where it has to be to involve the greatest number of participants so we dont get to choose if higher is better or not.    There isnt any real sign yet, no trend means trades are more dangerous and they double back on themselves.

Whether BTC prices are currently high or low is surely a relative assessment.

This is basically the bottom line. To me, it's merely relative to two different varying time-frames; long-term and short-term. Like many, I'll remain bullish long-term on the price, while the shorter-term time-frame is sometimes in in confluence with the former and other-times not. At the moment I feel it's not, so I'll remain neutral & as well as slightly bearish shorter-term, bearing in mind the strong long-term support in the near future. Either way, I feel I'll be shorting a very small % soon but still pending confirmation, even especially if I know it's high risk, hence hodling the rest for good measure.

[exstasie]

This is basically the bottom line. To me, it's merely relative to two different varying time-frames; long-term and short-term. Like many, I'll remain bullish long-term on the price, while the shorter-term time-frame is sometimes in in confluence with the former and other-times not. At the moment I feel it's not, so I'll remain neutral & as well as slightly bearish shorter-term, bearing in mind the strong long-term support in the near future.

Confluence is everything. When all time frames finally line up bullish, get ready for some fireworks. That's where the real magic happens.

Until then, chop chop.

Yesterday closed pretty bullish. I'm tempted to start building a long position, especially given the bullish action in other markets, but I'd really like to see the downtrend since June 1st broken first. Give me a higher high! So much trolling this past couple months.....

[Wind_FURY]

I'm fine if the price stays high if thats what helps the market stay healthy and if it has to go lower too then so be it, prices moves where it has to be to involve the greatest number of participants so we dont get to choose if higher is better or not.    There isnt any real sign yet, no trend means trades are more dangerous and they double back on themselves.

Whether BTC prices are currently high or low is surely a relative assessment.

This is basically the bottom line. To me, it's merely relative to two different varying time-frames; long-term and short-term. Like many, I'll remain bullish long-term on the price,

, and HODL.

while the shorter-term time-frame is sometimes in in confluence with the former and other-times not. At the moment I feel it's not, so I'll remain neutral & as well as slightly bearish shorter-term, bearing in mind the strong long-term support in the near future.

Buy the dip,

Either way, I feel I'll be shorting a very small % soon but still pending confirmation, even especially if I know it's high risk, hence hodling the rest for good measure.

Why risk to lose some capital by shorting? I believe it would take less risk to buy the dip if you are long-term bullish.