GAMBLING: Skill-based vs. Chance-based

[peter0425]

Like for example if you are a Basketball fan for long time,maybe you can at least have bigger chance of winning if you bet in sportsbet specially if the team is your favorite.

Wrong example, if that is only the basis to succeed in gambling, then definitely sports betting will not be challenging for the sports betting.
The sad reality is, when always bet on your favorite team, you are likely to lose, because it will make you bias and you'll not be able to analyze it realistically since you are bias.

I think it does not necessarily mean you will bet on your favorite team instead at least you have idea what will happen to the game.

Because we are talking gambling here not specifically the game so you will analyze what is the stand of your favorite team if they can beat the opponent or not since you already knew their capacity and same as the other team

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[Assface16678]

Into the world of gambling, I thought we are the same or both being a skilled base and chance base. In skilled base, if we want to play gambling it not all about you now the mechanics of the game instead you have additional knowledge came from your research and experience for all of your games which makes you stronger because you gained more knowledge than your opponents. A chance base because not all the time the luck is with us and this is having too much pressure when you face another player that is good and better to you sometimes those players can conquer the whole game and ruin your focus and goal to make more money that's why I think we are both of that kind of gambler.

Like for example if you are a Basketball fan for long time,maybe you can at least have bigger chance of winning if you bet in sportsbet specially if the team is your favorite.

Wrong example, if that is only the basis to succeed in gambling, then definitely sports betting will not be challenging for the sports betting.
The sad reality is, when always bet on your favorite team, you are likely to lose, because it will make you bias and you'll not be able to analyze it realistically since you are bias.

I think it does not necessarily mean you will bet on your favorite team instead at least you have idea what will happen to the game.

Because we are talking gambling here not specifically the game so you will analyze what is the stand of your favorite team if they can beat the opponent or not since you already knew their capacity and same as the other team

It is better too if you will play the game that is you are a professional and export to avoid getting too much lose because one of the goals of the gambler is to make earning don't risk your self and your money if you are not comfortable to the game you are playing with.

[bittraffic]

Into the world of gambling, I thought we are the same or both being a skilled base and chance base. In skilled base, if we want to play gambling it not all about you now the mechanics of the game instead you have additional knowledge came from your research and experience for all of your games which makes you stronger because you gained more knowledge than your opponents. A chance base because not all the time the luck is with us and this is having too much pressure when you face another player that is good and better to you sometimes those players can conquer the whole game and ruin your focus and goal to make more money that's why I think we are both of that kind of gambler.

Like for example if you are a Basketball fan for long time,maybe you can at least have bigger chance of winning if you bet in sportsbet specially if the team is your favorite.

Wrong example, if that is only the basis to succeed in gambling, then definitely sports betting will not be challenging for the sports betting.
The sad reality is, when always bet on your favorite team, you are likely to lose, because it will make you bias and you'll not be able to analyze it realistically since you are bias.

I think it does not necessarily mean you will bet on your favorite team instead at least you have idea what will happen to the game.

Because we are talking gambling here not specifically the game so you will analyze what is the stand of your favorite team if they can beat the opponent or not since you already knew their capacity and same as the other team

It is better too if you will play the game that is you are a professional and export to avoid getting too much lose because one of the goals of the gambler is to make earning don't risk your self and your money if you are not comfortable to the game you are playing with.

Sometimes you just have to listen to the analyst particularly to boxing analyst if you have been a boxing fan. You don't really need to somehow become a boxer to bet a boxing match.  There are youtube channels that actually provide a lot of insights to a near boxing match and even to UFC fights, you just need to listen to them. It will bore you to death if you are not a fan but if you are betting for about 1ETH, it may make you listen to what they are saying. They may say one fighter has a better chance of winning because this one just came back from a broken leg operation.

[deisik]

Sometimes you just have to listen to the analyst particularly to boxing analyst if you have been a boxing fan. You don't really need to somehow become a boxer to bet a boxing match.  There are youtube channels that actually provide a lot of insights to a near boxing match and even to UFC fights, you just need to listen to them. It will bore you to death if you are not a fan but if you are betting for about 1ETH, it may make you listen to what they are saying. They may say one fighter has a better chance of winning because this one just came back from a broken leg operation

I wouldn't trust anything you hear there (and half of what you see)

These people can say one thing and then do the opposite. Why so and how come? Just try to put yourself in their place. Would you share with anyone truly insider info on which you could earn dough? I guess that not. So why do you seriously expect somebody to tell the world the truth provided they know the truth in the first place? Put differently, be aware that you may be intentionally fed a piece of information that has little connection to how things are really going. That would be a deliberate piece of misinformation according to my book

[ShowOff]

^ Skill-based and Chance based gambling are both games that don't give any assurance of winning regardless of how skillful a player is or how often that a combination strikes on a particular game still it will only provide you chances of winning.

I will only say that I agree with your assumptions. Both are the same, only a few things are different and that is an effort. Efforts to get a win in this type of gambling based on skills are the experience and knowledge applied when facing opposition from opponents. But that also doesnt guarantee victory all the time because it has to do with "luck".

Luck is the only tool that can give anyone an assurance of winning

It is this factor that continues to cling to gamblers regardless of the basis of their play as a skill-based game or a luck-based game. Although it is a bit different, especially in terms of style of play, but the luck factor will continue to exist in both.

[FanEagle]

if you are only a beginner, I think the chance-baded gsmbling would be duitable for you, but do not stick only on that, you should improve yourself, acquire skills and knowledge through experience so you will be able to play skill baesed gambling soon.

No, not just for beginners but for all the gamblers who look for making entertainments from gambling, those chance/luck based gambling are the first preferences. Skill based gambling are known for being profitable but I tried them but never got chances to hit profits then I stopped trying them as I am very much comfortable with luck based gambling. They are instant and stress-buster compared to those skill based gambling types.

I recommend skill based gambling for all the gamblers who want to adopt gambling as part of their income stream and luck based gambling for the people who want to kill their boredom. Do not mix and not get yourself confused. Gamblers for this, first need to identify themselves what they actually want from gambling and then must need to choose the right type of gambling .

[bittraffic]

Sometimes you just have to listen to the analyst particularly to boxing analyst if you have been a boxing fan. You don't really need to somehow become a boxer to bet a boxing match.  There are youtube channels that actually provide a lot of insights to a near boxing match and even to UFC fights, you just need to listen to them. It will bore you to death if you are not a fan but if you are betting for about 1ETH, it may make you listen to what they are saying. They may say one fighter has a better chance of winning because this one just came back from a broken leg operation

I wouldn't trust anything you hear there (and half of what you see)

These people can say one thing and then do the opposite. Why so and how come? Just try to put yourself in their place. Would you share with anyone truly insider info on which you could earn dough? I guess that not. So why do you seriously expect somebody to tell the world the truth provided they know the truth in the first place? Put differently, be aware that you may be intentionally fed a piece of information that has little connection to how things are really going. That would be a deliberate piece of misinformation according to my book

You wouldn't just listen to one guy alone on youtube. There have to be multiple people reviewing whose going to win and not and from my experience, Joe Rogan sometimes will sometimes slip his bet to which fighter.

I sometimes read the comments of the weigh-ins video on youtube to see which one they bet also. Quite interesting people out there and that I sometimes learn the condition of the fighter and which fighter who doesn't box the way they use to.

[deisik]

Sometimes you just have to listen to the analyst particularly to boxing analyst if you have been a boxing fan. You don't really need to somehow become a boxer to bet a boxing match.  There are youtube channels that actually provide a lot of insights to a near boxing match and even to UFC fights, you just need to listen to them. It will bore you to death if you are not a fan but if you are betting for about 1ETH, it may make you listen to what they are saying. They may say one fighter has a better chance of winning because this one just came back from a broken leg operation

I wouldn't trust anything you hear there (and half of what you see)

These people can say one thing and then do the opposite. Why so and how come? Just try to put yourself in their place. Would you share with anyone truly insider info on which you could earn dough? I guess that not. So why do you seriously expect somebody to tell the world the truth provided they know the truth in the first place? Put differently, be aware that you may be intentionally fed a piece of information that has little connection to how things are really going. That would be a deliberate piece of misinformation according to my book

You wouldn't just listen to one guy alone on youtube

And what does it change?

Okay, there are many people talking all sorts of things on YouTube, and so what? My proposition still holds. If you knew something which you would consider valuable info, would you expatiate on that? Let me guess, you would keep your mouth shut instead. Moreover, you would likely start to spread bullshit to draw people's attention from the real stuff by creating all kinds of smokes and mirrors, with white noise probably being the best (just in case, I don't mean you personally)

[KTChampions]

Good advice. I can say that (although this is paradoxical) one of the best luck for a beginner is a loss. Losing and unpleasant emotions associated with this give an understanding that there is no easy money here. If a novice player wins, then he might think that this is normal. And then when at a distance he will suffer losses he will not stop but will continue to play expecting his luck.

It also have have different approach if the newbie when the game since the outcome will different for that matters, I've seen so many newbies got addicted when they win their first bet so this discussion really depends on what type of person the gambler is. If they have self control then theirs no problem even if they are skill based or chance based games.

I also saw such cases. I agree that much depends on the person, but I think that it is best to avoid risk, because no one can be completely sure in own abilities or lack of addiction. Sometimes psychologically strong people in some aspects are amazingly weak in other aspects.

[johhnyUA]

here are some examples of preflop odds:







so AA is in a very dominant position---winning ~4 out of 5 hands---when the opponent is isolated. multi-way pots are much more of a gamble. AA in a family pot preflop won't even win a majority of the time so it's important to raise preflop. a lot of people slow play AA preflop and then end up in bad positions postflop.

Ok, let's see using not some sites, but math and theory of probability (I don't tell that information on sites is wrong or something like that, but maybe want to improve my skill in probability and maybe it will be interesting for you. Also, i want to check is my calculations will match with site information).

AA against ANY another pair:

In this example i will take situation where you have AA on your hands and going ALL in in preflop.

What outcomes can be:

There any the same card for you or your opponent - you win
There another A for you - you win with set
There another card for your opponent and no card for you - opponent wins with set
There card for you opponent and A for you - you win with higher set.

So, as we see, AA is really strong hand (opponent will win only in 1 against 3 outcomes). But what about language of numbers?

It's obvious, that full outcome consists of two probabilities: you win or opponent win. Together they create a full space of outcomes (100 % outcome). (For honest, i don't know how it correct calls in english, in russian it will be - пoлнaя гpyппa coбытий)

To make our goal easier, it will be better to count a chance for opponent's hand to win (otherwise we need to calculate 1, 2, and 4 probabilities and to add them).
This chance consists of two parts: a chance to get another card which connect with his hand AND a chance that you do not get another A (this chance, with chance to get A also creates full space of outcome, so if chance to get A is 15 %, this will be 85 )

Less words, more numbers!
1. A chance to get AT LEAST one card: 2/48 (full deck 52, and we don't count his cards and your hand) + 2/47 + 2/46 + 2/45 + 2/44 = 0.041 + 0.042 + 0.043 + 0.044 + 0.045 = 21,5 % . But this will be a little wrong calculation, let me tell you why:
For example, we have two snipers, and question "What a probability that at least (OR) one sniper will hit his target? Chance of the first sniper is - 0.8 and the second one - 0.5" As you can see, we can't just add them, because this will be 130 %, and this is idiotic. We should add them, besides one outcome, when they hit target both (yeah, this is the most complicated part, many can't understand why so). The probability this outcome will be multiplication of the chances this two snipers. 0.8 * 0.5 = 0.4 (or 40 %), so, the right answer will be = 0.8 + 0.5 - 0.4 = 0.9 ). yep, the correct formula depends from how full events interconnected one with the other in space of outcomes (sometimes it's correct just to add).
But our case is the same with two snipers. So we should to subtract the case when we have two card on the table (Four of the kind):
2/48 * (1/47 + 1/46 + 1/45 + 1/44) = 0.3 % (yep, that's less than 1 %)
21.5 - 0.3 = 21.2 %

And the chance for you to not get another A card: 100 % - chance to get (   ) because i count it before (21.2 %) it will be much faster = 100 - 21.2 = 88.8 %

And now, we need to multiplicate them (because we need TWO of this event to happen, meaning AND):
21.2 * 88.8 = 18.82 %


You were right - a chance for any another pair to win against AA is just 18.82 %

AND BECAUSE OF THIS MY ASSHOLE BURNS MUCH MORE WHEN I HAVE AA CALLING ALL IN AND A GUY WITH 33 WINS BECAUSE HE GET THIRD 3 ON RIVER  

P.S:
And yeah, mu calculations is enough close to what shows in this site, i'm satisfied  
And yeah, i found why they have 19.251 and I 18.82 . They do not substract the probability that you get Four of a kind. This is a little wrong mathematically, but logically this is correct (it is obvious that you win for sure with 3333)

P.P.S: But i don't agree that a chance for the opponent to win will depend on what pair he have on his hands. 33 or 99 or KK it doesn't matter (if i understood right, T9s means two nines

[Yamifoud]

Pick the luck based casino games when you are begin with, it maybe harder to make money from these games but this will make you aware that it is not easier to win money from gambling so they will always try to save themselves from getting addicted to it.

I don't know how to save themself if they always make it.
If you only base about luck or having luck, then you'll go into Luck-based game. But you are trying to apply your skills and knowledge in a particular game, then skilled-based game suited for you.

Even if you have a lot of money and willing to lose either, but something we feel imbalance if we just keep losing. Might not ask ourselves why not to have this one knowing that there is a big chance to win on there? We need to be smart also in some other ways.

[chaser15]

I also saw such cases. I agree that much depends on the person, but I think that it is best to avoid risk, because no one can be completely sure in own abilities or lack of addiction. Sometimes psychologically strong people in some aspects are amazingly weak in other aspects.

Risk is a part doing gambling so that's already given whether a gambler plays at skill-based or luck-based games.

As long as these gamblers know what are they up to, it's fine to gamble at both.

Forcing themselves to play at those games where they aren't used to just because they saw someone won profit at it shouldn't be their reason why they are doing gambling on those particular games.

[KTChampions]

I also saw such cases. I agree that much depends on the person, but I think that it is best to avoid risk, because no one can be completely sure in own abilities or lack of addiction. Sometimes psychologically strong people in some aspects are amazingly weak in other aspects.

Risk is a part doing gambling so that's already given whether a gambler plays at skill-based or luck-based games.

As long as these gamblers know what are they up to, it's fine to gamble at both.

Forcing themselves to play at those games where they aren't used to just because they saw someone won profit at it shouldn't be their reason why they are doing gambling on those particular games.

My point is that the player must clearly understand the difference. If he wants to make money, then he can try skill-based games. If he wants entertainment, then he must gamble (and almost certainly lose money). But if a person does not understand the difference and rashly starts to gamble, then I consider this an unacceptable risk and it will be good (for him) if he loses.

[figmentofmyass]

You were right - a chance for any another pair to win against AA is just 18.82 %

AND BECAUSE OF THIS MY ASSHOLE BURNS MUCH MORE WHEN I HAVE AA CALLING ALL IN AND A GUY WITH 33 WINS BECAUSE HE GET THIRD 3 ON RIVER  

P.S:
And yeah, mu calculations is enough close to what shows in this site, i'm satisfied  
And yeah, i found why they have 19.251 and I 18.82 . They do not substract the probability that you get Four of a kind.

the other thing to consider is the small probability that either hand makes a straight.

against AA, pocket pairs between 55 and TT are slightly stronger than KK because they are more likely to hit a straight. KK needs 9-K or T-A to hit a straight, which means the pocket AA blocks 2 of his outs to a straight.

if i understood right, T9s means two nines

two nines = 99
two tens = TT
T9s = 10-9 suited

[plvbob0070]

It depends on my mood. I will choose skill-based if I know that I am skilled enough about certain games. But generally speaking, skill-based games will give you more possibility of winning because it's a matter of abilities and mastery you have.

But there are times that you want to play but don't want to use so much effort. In these cases, we can choose chance-based games and let our intuition and luck play their roles. Though I am not really confident with only depending on luck 'cause I don't think I have so much luck in me. That's why I will go with my skills. Even though we can be very bad at it when starting, skills can be enhanced and developed with practice but luck is not always there. We don't know whether if it would be our lucky day or not.

[Russlenat]

It depends on my mood. I will choose skill-based if I know that I am skilled enough about certain games. But generally speaking, skill-based games will give you more possibility of winning because it's a matter of abilities and mastery you have.

In the long run, of course, because if you play a game based on luck, you can only win if you are lucky and its fully guaranteed that you will just lose in the long run, regardless of the strategy you are using. That's why I like to bet on sports betting as I believe I have a better chance of winning, and this is a skilled based game that until now I am still developing my skills, hopefully I'll be successful but I am not so eager compared in the past.

[lienfaye]

I like skill-based because its more exciting and you need strategy and experience in order to win. There's a card game called "tongit" here in our country, you cant just win by luck because strategy is needed to maximize your chance to win.

Chance based game is only depending on how lucky you are. You have no idea for the outcome and so if you're not lucky then expect losing your money. Thats why if you want to earn in gambling choose the game wherein you can use your skills and strategy. But of course luck has a big participation for us to win whatever game you play.

[ultrloa]

I like skill-based because its more exciting and you need strategy and experience in order to win. There's a card game called "tongit" here in our country, you cant just win by luck because strategy is needed to maximize your chance to win.

The game became more exciting on skill-based game when you opponent is good, the level of intensity is really different compare to luck base game where the only thing we do is to set and click to roll the game.

Chance based game is only depending on how lucky you are. You have no idea for the outcome and so if you're not lucky then expect losing your money. Thats why if you want to earn in gambling choose the game wherein you can use your skills and strategy. But of course luck has a big participation for us to win whatever game you play.

But still there are people enjoying playing on luck based game since there are people who love surprise or just bored and they are wasting their time playing on this kind of game.

[shoreno]

It depends on my mood. I will choose skill-based if I know that I am skilled enough about certain games. But generally speaking, skill-based games will give you more possibility of winning because it's a matter of abilities and mastery you have.

In the long run, of course, because if you play a game based on luck, you can only win if you are lucky and its fully guaranteed that you will just lose in the long run, regardless of the strategy you are using. That's why I like to bet on sports betting as I believe I have a better chance of winning, and this is a skilled based game that until now I am still developing my skills, hopefully I'll be successful but I am not so eager compared in the past.

on gambling its guaranteed you can loose in long run because of the house edge and it does not matter if your play was based on skill or luck . on sports betting game you cant call it as a skill based because ive seen many times that games does not work according to the bettors analysis  . they are confident with thier picks that they choose the best team but at the end of the match , the bad  team manage to recover and won . same as with black jack and other known skill based game too

[johhnyUA]

the other thing to consider is the small probability that either hand makes a straight.

Understood. Maybe this is reason why T9 is stronger than ordinary pair. Also it has probability to get two pairs (TT-99) and win against AA. Get it.

against AA, pocket pairs between 55 and TT are slightly stronger than KK because they are more likely to hit a straight. KK needs 9-K or T-A to hit a straight, which means the pocket AA blocks 2 of his outs to a straight.

For honest, the probability to get straight with one card (with pair second card it's doesn't matter) so insignificant, that term "slightly stronger" is counted in tenths of a percent  

T9s = 10-9 suited

Yep, a chance to get straight or flush, because of that difference in 3 % (between 19.251 and 22.2). For example, i don't know about that, that it's more chance to win against monster hand with suited cards rather than one pair.