MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

[Bluedrem]

I would say that the current mNAV is more realistic. With the products that Strategy launches, it makes sense that it is higher than 1, as it is not a Bitcoin ETF. But I don't think we will see mNAVs of 3 or 4 again, as we did in the past. Consider that if, for example, the mNAV were now at 2, in order to recover your investment in terms of exposure to Bitcoin, Strategy would have to acquire another 650,000 Bitcoins, and if it has taken 5 and a half years, it is logical that it will take longer, because the price is higher and there will be another halving in the meantime.

mNAV 2+ = Low liquidity + High demand.
That is, when MicroStrategy's mNAV was 2+, there was excessive excitement in the market, along with low liquidity, the amount of funds that the strategy collected was low, so they could buy more Bitcoin at a lower price.
But currently, the price of Bitcoin has increased a lot, and there is another halving of Bitcoin in the near future, due to which the supply of Bitcoin will decrease further. Also, it will not be possible to buy more Bitcoin with the amount of funds that the strategy will collect.
That is, as you said, MicroStrategy will have to hold 650,000 more Bitcoins to reach mNAV 2+, which is really difficult to reach. But investors will expect MSTR's mNAV to be around 1.5. I think this is possible if the strategy can buy a lot more Bitcoin before the price of Bitcoin reaches $250,000. But the biggest question is where will the funds for the purchase come from?

[fillippone]

Looking great and Michael Saylor just announce the recent purchase of Strategy.

This news provably could give some impact especially for those people looking for some good situation that can possibly help Bitcoin to pump.

They can also see this update on their tracker https://saylortracker.com/



https://x.com/saylor/status/1998015666344054815

That one was the biggest purchase since July.
Hopefully, the installment of the Dividend reserve, all this buying and the change in rhetoric (more honest) about the eventual sale of bitcoin, can stop the slide of Strategy vs Bitcoin:


Since Oct 10th, the date when MSCI published their warning about Strategy Delisting, the share has lost double of what BTC lost.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Changing my tune?

It is your style.

My style?
  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yep. you tend to bounce around a lot and then even move the goal posts or change topics - not always easy to follow to the extent that you are not doing it on purpose.

Or maybe you're just being cynical?

Hard to see my cynicism, to the extent it exists, as relevant.  You are probably reading too much into it, since I posted a response to your post.

You're right, it's actually hard to see a your own cynicism, but other people notice it.

Good.  You are a spokesperson, now?  and you still have not shown how it is even relevant, even if it were to be true that I am a cynic.  So what?  I am a cynic about your waffling around and then getting excited that the BTC price is dropping?  Why would I be a non-cynic about that?

You are now trying to suggest that you don't believe in such negative scenario as you had earlier posed, yet you had wanted to pose such a negative scenario anyhow and ask: "what if?

Is there anything wrong with asking about people's opinions or discuss what their thoughts/insights are about a world where Bitcoin crashes down to near or under its 200-Weekly SMA and MSTR has a larger drawdown bring mNAV further down?

What are you afraid of?

Of course all kinds of BTC price movements are possible, and some BTC price movements are more likely than other things and we do not know the future in advance, even though this time, you are hoping to be different than your past fails, since you are hoping that your ongoing bet on down will pay off, this time.. .yet even if you end up being successful this time, your ongoing betting on down still is not going to make up for your ongoing and extensive whimpiness in regards to your bitcoin preparations and your ongoing failures/refusals to sufficiently prepare for up.  

?

"Ongoing bet on down"?
 
I can't "bet on down". The only thing I could do is buy more of the Bitcoin DIP if it actually crashes down, and I believe EVERYONE here would truly LOVE to buy Bitcoin at a good discount.

You bet on down when you fail/refuse to buy, and so sure it might work out for you this time, perhaps?  Yet I dubt that your betting on down has paid off for you in the long run, especially if we start from your May 2016 forum registration date.  You have been fucking yourself for 9.5 years yet you want to act like a genius when you finally get a dip to buy.

There should be no need for me to continue to repeat that you would have had been better to buy in the past 9.5 years and even front load your bitcoin investment as much as you could rather than fucking around waiting for dips for the past 9.5 years.

Not only do you rationalize your own behaviors by trying to act like you are smart (not that you have even bought the dip, yet?), but you also try to get others to follow similar dumb practices, when they likely would be better off (especially if they are a no coiner or low coiner) to get started buying right away no matter the cost and then investing into bitcoin persistently, consistently, regularly, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively, rather than fucking around waiting for dips that may or may not end up happening.

--Snip--  Since MSTR has has hinged so much of itself on bitcoin, it's behaviors and it's performance ends up affecting how bitcoin performs, even though they are not the same thing... so yeah, it can be interesting to see how much MSTR prices might diverge from BTC spot prices.. and we have frequently found guys aspiring for lower BTC prices, even during periods that they should be buying, just like you were doing in mid-2023 when we were in the upper $20ks, you were so excitedly waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening, so you are again getting excited for down that might not happen... and so yeah, this time might be different so that you can buy some cheaper coins, and perhaps you will not be able to?

But Bitcoin did go its 200-Weekly SMA though, which was a GOOD buying opportunity for me and many of our fellow plebs. I will be of the belief that it will go near or below that again until it doesn't.

Of course, 2022 ended up with record low prices relative to the 200-WMA since the BTC price spent nearly 16 months from June 2022 until October 2023 at or below the 200-WMA and it even got to 35% below the 200-WMA when it reached its lowest point of $15,479 in November 2022. 

I doubt that you benefitted from the 2022 to 2023 period as much as you claim to have had benefitted, just like this time around your are running a decently BIG gamble if you expect the BTC price to drop to the 200-WMA in this particular correction period including that right now, as I type this post the 200-WMA is at $56k.. so if you are waiting and waiting and waiting to buy, you might end up in a similar situation this time around as you ended up in August/September 2023 when you were spouting out about sub $20k prices happening, and you were failing/refusing to buy BTC in the $25k to $28k range when the 200-WMA was then around $28k.   

In late 2023, you ended up hanging onto too many dollars as we know that the BTC price went up from the then $27k price and did not even come close to returning to October 2023 levels since then.. and even our various dips in 2024 (especially after March 2024) did not get below the mid-$40ks.. since we spent much of the time between about $55k to $70k until the November 2024 Trump pump and BTC's price performance since November 2024 has largely been getting above $100k and spending much time above $100k,... and so you still wish for BTC prices to go down the the 200-WMA that may or may not end up playing out.. Actually the odds for your wishes to come true are likely not as high as you are seeming to be arrogantly spouting out them to be.

You keep making the same or similar mistakes, but this time, you want to be correct... so you can say:  "I told you so" blah blah blah.  I am thinking that you should protect your BTC holdings better by buying more and waiting less... Yet, of course, you are smarter than everyone else and ONLY here in order to say "I told you so" at some point. At least you are motivated by a hope to be able to say "I told you so."  and your dream might not happen.. a bit lame, don't you think?

By the way, even if you had started buying around $50 per week of bitcoin from the time of your forum registration until today, you would have had invested around $20k and you would have had accumulated around 5 BTC, so your average cost per BTC would have had been less than $5k.. so then why the fuck would it matter or not if you buy at the dip or buy at the 200-WMA when you had already largely accumulated BTC that would have had average costs about 1/10th the 200-WMA? 

Other guys here might not have your exact fortune of getting to the forum as early as 2016, yet many guys here recognize that there are risks to be fucking around waiting for dips that may or may not happen, so a lot of normally enthusiastic bitcoiner forum members just buy bitcoin regularly at any price and sure, they would like to buy at cheaper prices when possible, yet they have also done quite well for themselves by buying bitcoin regularly, persistently, consistently, ongoingly and perhaps even regularly, and so the longer that they have been in bitcoin, then the lower their average cost per BTC... and many guys have cost per BTC that are already quite a bit below the current 200-WMA... including that even a guy who started investing in bitcoin around 5 years ago, he may well would have had been able to get an average cost per BTC around $40k, so maybe he is not rich, but he is on the right path and building his bitcoin holdings.

[Popkon6]

Looking great and Michael Saylor just announce the recent purchase of Strategy.

This news provably could give some impact especially for those people looking for some good situation that can possibly help Bitcoin to pump.

They can also see this update on their tracker https://saylortracker.com/



https://x.com/saylor/status/1998015666344054815

After a long time we saw Michael Saylor buy a large amount of Bitcoin, but in the past few weeks he has bought 10624 science this week. Due to this aggressive buying of Bitcoin, he has been able to buy a large dip, now the more Bitcoin he buys, the more dip he will be able to buy. Because they are buying Bitcoin through the DCA method, they have been able to buy a total of 660624 Bitcoins and hold them for a long time. However, today's Bitcoin purchase this week is the highest in two to three months, and he has been able to buy a large dip.

[criptoevangelista]

Saylor went all in this time, he bought a lot, so from the market we can only expect one thing: a drop. After all, every time Michael Saylor buys, bitcoin falls in price. It’s incredible how “unlucky” this guy is.

I just hope he doesn’t die anytime soon. After all, my only concern is what will happen to those bitcoins when he passes away.

[Gost ms]

Saylor went all in this time, he bought a lot, so from the market we can only expect one thing: a drop. After all, every time Michael Saylor buys, bitcoin falls in price. It’s incredible how “unlucky” this guy is.

I just hope he doesn’t die anytime soon. After all, my only concern is what will happen to those bitcoins when he passes away.

Yes, you are right, we have seen this in the market many times. But there is no guarantee that it will always happen. Because currently we may be going through a decline, due to which the market is not going up no matter how big the purchase is in the market. A few days ago when BlackRock bought Bitcoin, I thought that maybe Bitcoin's decline is over, maybe now it will create a new ATH, but nothing like that happened, instead the market went back to the decline.

However, it is not possible to say why this is happening in the market, but it is hoped that the market will return to its previous position very soon.

[Free Market Capitalist]

...

You make so many false claims that I'm not going to bother refuting them in detail. When the mNAV was above 2, there was no shortage of liquidity. The price hasn't risen much, and the next halving is not close.

That one was the biggest purchase since July.

I was quite surprised by this purchase. The money was obtained on the one hand from STRD's ATM, which is trading below par, and the only reason I don't think it's crazy is because of the low amount sold. And now I'll move on to what really surprised me: the ATM of MSTR.

Since Oct 10th, the date when MSCI published their warning about Strategy Delisting, the share has lost double of what BTC lost.

What this has done is deepen the trend that was already underway. A few months ago, Strategy published a series of criteria according to which they would not ATM common stock below 1.5 except in exceptional cases, such as dividend payments. Apparently, they have changed their minds again and have been ATMing MSTR at between 1.15 and 1.2 to buy those 10,000 bitcoins. The previous criteria were established to try to stop the bleeding of common stock, which is supposed to be their main objective: to take care of MSTR shareholders.

We must remember that when they ATM MSTR, they are diluting shareholders.

So I don't know what they are playing at.

[Wind_FURY]

You are now trying to suggest that you don't believe in such negative scenario as you had earlier posed, yet you had wanted to pose such a negative scenario anyhow and ask: "what if?

Is there anything wrong with asking about people's opinions or discuss what their thoughts/insights are about a world where Bitcoin crashes down to near or under its 200-Weekly SMA and MSTR has a larger drawdown bring mNAV further down?

What are you afraid of?

Of course all kinds of BTC price movements are possible, and some BTC price movements are more likely than other things and we do not know the future in advance, even though this time, you are hoping to be different than your past fails, since you are hoping that your ongoing bet on down will pay off, this time.. .yet even if you end up being successful this time, your ongoing betting on down still is not going to make up for your ongoing and extensive whimpiness in regards to your bitcoin preparations and your ongoing failures/refusals to sufficiently prepare for up.  

?

"Ongoing bet on down"?

 

I can't "bet on down". The only thing I could do is buy more of the Bitcoin DIP if it actually crashes down, and I believe EVERYONE here would truly LOVE to buy Bitcoin at a good discount.

You bet on down when you fail/refuse to buy,

What's wrong with that? You're mad because a person expects that a DIP will happen based on a pattern that has been happening every four years?

You have been here in Bitcoin Land longer than most of your fellow plebs like me.

--Snip--  Since MSTR has has hinged so much of itself on bitcoin, it's behaviors and it's performance ends up affecting how bitcoin performs, even though they are not the same thing... so yeah, it can be interesting to see how much MSTR prices might diverge from BTC spot prices.. and we have frequently found guys aspiring for lower BTC prices, even during periods that they should be buying, just like you were doing in mid-2023 when we were in the upper $20ks, you were so excitedly waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening, so you are again getting excited for down that might not happen... and so yeah, this time might be different so that you can buy some cheaper coins, and perhaps you will not be able to?

But Bitcoin did go its 200-Weekly SMA though, which was a GOOD buying opportunity for me and many of our fellow plebs. I will be of the belief that it will go near or below that again until it doesn't.

I doubt that you benefitted from the 2022 to 2023 period as much as you claim to have had benefitted,

I may not have actual/absolute bottom of the DIP during 2022, but I'm sure I would have bought LESS units in Bitcoin for the same amount of fiat if I didn't wait for the the price to crash near the 200-Weekly SMA.

It's probably going to happen again, and I'm buying.

[JayJuanGee]

You bet on down when you fail/refuse to buy,

What's wrong with that? You're mad because a person expects that a DIP will happen based on a pattern that has been happening every four years?

Bitcoin has been going up since you got into bitcoin, so you have been a dumb ass (and continue to be a dumbass) to be ongoingly and continuously betting on down rather than up, so you also preach your dumbass ideas, and yeah, maybe you will get lucky at some point.. but your practice has not been good over the last 9.5-ish years.

In regards to my "madness," you are just making shit up.  Even if I have been ongoingly proclaiming that your practices and your ideas in connection with bitcoin are bad, that does not rise to the level of my being mad.

You have been here in Bitcoin Land longer than most of your fellow plebs like me.

So?  The mere fact that you are ongoingly making mistakes, what does that have to do with me?  I have been likely telling you that your ideas and practices are bad for several years, including in your Buy the dip thread.

Are you trying to proclaim that it is unfair because I have been stacking corn longer than you?  That is ridiculous.

Each of us finds bitcoin at our own time, and since you registered on the forum since May 2016, I have ONLY been judging you to have had known about bitcoin since that time.  There is no way that I could necessarily fault you for failing/refusing to get involved in bitcoin earlier than your forum registration date unless you want to disclose that you had been fucking around with your dumb strategies at earlier times.

I frequently suggest that guys should strive to get involved buying bitcoin as soon as they can and as soon as they figure out that they have discretionary funds.  In the end, guys have to figure out their own balances, and surely there can be times in which guys do not have sufficient discretionary funds, and frequently, I talk about examples in which guys might have to work on the income earning skills and training, so sometimes they might not be in a great position to focus on bitcoin, even though surely bitcoin is an important enough phenomena that even guys who might be training in other fields, it may well be a good thing for them to also multi-task and spend time energy and money in connection with bitcoin, even if they might be investing time, energy and money in other areas at the same time.

--Snip--  Since MSTR has has hinged so much of itself on bitcoin, it's behaviors and it's performance ends up affecting how bitcoin performs, even though they are not the same thing... so yeah, it can be interesting to see how much MSTR prices might diverge from BTC spot prices.. and we have frequently found guys aspiring for lower BTC prices, even during periods that they should be buying, just like you were doing in mid-2023 when we were in the upper $20ks, you were so excitedly waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening, so you are again getting excited for down that might not happen... and so yeah, this time might be different so that you can buy some cheaper coins, and perhaps you will not be able to?

But Bitcoin did go its 200-Weekly SMA though, which was a GOOD buying opportunity for me and many of our fellow plebs. I will be of the belief that it will go near or below that again until it doesn't.

I doubt that you benefitted from the 2022 to 2023 period as much as you claim to have had benefitted,

I may not have actual/absolute bottom of the DIP during 2022, but I'm sure I would have bought LESS units in Bitcoin for the same amount of fiat if I didn't wait for the the price to crash near the 200-Weekly SMA.

It's probably going to happen again, and I'm buying.

Yes.  You are stubborn, and you can believe what you like in terms of your own practices in regards to comparing a buying the dip practice to a DCA practice, and sure, I am not saying to completely get rid of buying the dip, even though surely there are a lot of guys (like yourself) who have likely disadvantaged themselves greatly by such a mindset, especially if we see that you failed refused to start buying bitcoin until around April 2019, even though you could have had started stacking sats in May 2016 (three-ish years earlier). Not a good practice for most newbie low coiners and/or no coiners.  If a person spends several years (perhaps a whole cycle?) stacking sats, then they likely put themselves in a better position to be lessening their persistent buying and perhaps emphasizing more buying on dips rather than DCA...

Otherwise DCA and frontloading has been quite a good strategy for a lot of bitcoiners, and surely I am also not against employing all three strategies (of lump sum, DCA and buying the dip) for any guys who are in their early bitcoin stages and who might be trying to figure out ways to front load their bitcoin investment, yet at the same time, there are so many guys who are not able to spend too much time lump summing, so they might ONLY have the ability to buy bitcoin from their regular income and surely DCA will likely work well for those kinds of guys to tailorize their bitcoin purchase amounts to their income as it is coming in, and sure it might take them more than a couple of cycles to really start to get to the point of feeling as if they have stacked enough sats and in a place where they might move away from persistent, consistent, regular, ongoing and perhaps even aggressive DCA buying of their bitcoin.

In relation to this thread, surely some newbies can end up getting distracted by what Saylor and/or MSTR is doing, since they might end up overinvesting or underinvesting based on their thoughts about which way the BTC price might be going, partially based on concerns about what Saylor/MSTR is doing and also the impacts of single entities holding so many bitcoin.  I, personally, believe that each of us should be striving to develop and to follow our own strategies based on our own discretionary income circumstances, and surely it tends to be problematic for individuals (especially newbies or low coiners) to be fucking around trying to guess which way the price might be going.. especially in their first whole cycle of accumulating bitcoin.. but yeah, guys frequently will get distracted by short-term price moves and perhaps over-analysis regarding what MSTR is doing or the various other BIGGER players (and/or the battles going on in the macro-space).

[Ambatman]

Looking great and Michael Saylor just announce the recent purchase of Strategy.

Wow where did he get the money from. Well likely from issuing common stocks
That's what I can really think of now and those that own it would suffer from price dilution.
I guess this is a gamble that Bitcoin Would go higher from here
And investors getting the stock shows confidence.


I believe they are the only Bitcoin treasuries holding company that are still buying.
That's speaks volumes to alot.

[MusaMohamed]

Bitcoin has been going up since you got into bitcoin, so you have been a dumb ass (and continue to be a dumbass) to be ongoingly and continuously betting on down rather than up, so you also preach your dumbass ideas, and yeah, maybe you will get lucky at some point.. but your practice has not been good over the last 9.5-ish years.

Betting on Bitcoin downs is only realistic in short term or mid term with high uncertainty about when the fall starts as well as when the downward trend ends. In other words, it's impossible to predict and time the market so this downward bet on Bitcoin is against the Bitcoin long term trend which is very certain.

People can lose their money by bets on downward trend, leverages with their capital for margin or futures trading and liquidations, or sell their bitcoin with low price and buy bitcoin at higher price and losing part of their initial bitcoin.

By believing the long term trend which is quite certain upwards, people don't lose their bitcoins and also get good profit.
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin has been going up since you got into bitcoin, so you have been a dumb ass (and continue to be a dumbass) to be ongoingly and continuously betting on down rather than up, so you also preach your dumbass ideas, and yeah, maybe you will get lucky at some point.. but your practice has not been good over the last 9.5-ish years.

Betting on Bitcoin downs is only realistic in short term or mid term with high uncertainty about when the fall starts as well as when the downward trend ends.

I don't subscribe to any of those kinds of trading techniques, especially when guys assert that their goals are to accumulate bitcoin for the purpose of a long term investment.  Wind_FURY's ongiong betting on down is meant to be so that he can buy at a cheaper price and to be able to accumulate more BTC for less money.  He even seems to agree with the premise of not trading and not selling with intentions to buy back cheaper.   

So if we can agree that the goals are to accumulate more bitcoin order to get to a point of being empowered by having a large bitcoin stash, then the sales (or perhaps sustainable withdrawal of the bitcoin) would not start to happen until the stack had gottenc to a sufficiently large enough size.

I understand that not all guys agree with such premises of accumulating bitcoin through buying only until they get to a point of overaccumulation, yet it seems that I am not arguing with Wind_FURY about BTC accumulation methods that focus on buying only.  We are largely ongoingly arguing about his assertion that buying on the dip is superior to ongoing buying since he is able to buy bitcoin cheaper when he buys on the dips rather than paying higher prices, and part of my argument is that he would have had been (and continue to be) better off by ongoing buying rather than focusing on dips that may or may not end up happening.

In other words, it's impossible to predict and time the market so this downward bet on Bitcoin is against the Bitcoin long term trend which is very certain.

That has been part of the historical problem with bitcoin having a long term upward trend, and I am expecting (just like a lot of other bitcoin bulls) that bitcoin's trend is likely to continue to be upwards, even if the steepness of the trend might be less than what it had been historically.

People can lose their money by bets on downward trend, leverages with their capital for margin or futures trading and liquidations, or sell their bitcoin with low price and buy bitcoin at higher price and losing part of their initial bitcoin.

Those sound like losing strategies, even if some guys might be able to figure out how to do them. I think that many guys (including Saylor and MSTR) presume that long strategies are better than short strategies, even though Saylor and MSTR is distinguished in that he not only bets on long, but he also levers his longs which is even a more dangerous game than employing non-levered longs.

I personally believe that bitcoin provides underlying fundamentals that gives pretty strong odds that it is going to pump forever, so why get greedy?  Bitcoin already performs pretty much better than any other asset class, and so to me there seems to be no justification to be levering the longs or even betting in any other direction other than long... even though bitcoin has ups and downs along the way, the ups have historically beaten out the downs, and so there is not real reason to suspect that the future is not going to continue to pay off better for going long (whether levered or not.. and yeah, levering seems to mostly add unnecesary risk).

I had been estimating my own bitcoin CAGR had likely been in the ballpark of 65% over the 12 years that I have been in bitcoin (even despite some various decently large mistakes that I had made), so I don't really feel like I need to get more greedy or even to try to get returns that are greater than the ones that I had already been getting, and even if my own personal CAGR goes down to 15% to 20%, that is still likely quite well and it is likely still going to be ongoingly beating the debasement of the dollar (or whatever might end up being our denominator in the future).

By believing the long term trend which is quite certain upwards, people don't lose their bitcoins and also get good profit.
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

That seems to be the case., so it seems to be counter productive to be waiting for dips that may or may not end up happening.

[dan_dony]

Saylor went all in this time, he bought a lot, so from the market we can only expect one thing: a drop. After all, every time Michael Saylor buys, bitcoin falls in price. It’s incredible how “unlucky” this guy is.

I just hope he doesn’t die anytime soon. After all, my only concern is what will happen to those bitcoins when he passes away.

It is amusing that Saylor buys always seem to do well during short term dips but it is an accident rather than a causal thing. The market is much larger than any individual buyer including MicroStrategy. His belief has in fact been one of the most compelling bullish signals in long-term and each biggest acquisition makes the idea that Bitcoins is not only a trade but a long-term treasury asset a stronger one. As to what will become of it when he is no longer there eventually, the holdings of MicroStrategy will not just evaporate, they are the property of the company, and no longer of Saylor as an individual. The management of the reserves would then be transferred to the board and future leadership and therefore the Bitcoin would not just appear in the market overnight.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Wow where did he get the money from. Well likely from issuing common stocks
That's what I can really think of now and those that own it would suffer from price dilution.
I guess this is a gamble that Bitcoin Would go higher from here

Exactly, that's what I thought. Otherwise, it doesn't make sense. In my opinion, they are expecting that with the end of QT, foreseeable rate cuts, and the replacement of the Fed chair in May 2026, it will be bullish.

With the price of Bitcoin rising, dilution makes sense.

[Wind_FURY]

You bet on down when you fail/refuse to buy,

What's wrong with that? You're mad because a person expects that a DIP will happen based on a pattern that has been happening every four years?

Bitcoin has been going up since you got into bitcoin, so you have been a dumb ass

Who are you calling a dumb ass? Bitcoin DOESN'T go up in a straight line. Haha.

Large DIPS keep happening every four years.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You have been here in Bitcoin Land longer than most of your fellow plebs like me.

So? 

So you probably should notice that there IS a four-year-cycle, and that won't change until there are obvious validations that it has changed.

--Snip--  Since MSTR has has hinged so much of itself on bitcoin, it's behaviors and it's performance ends up affecting how bitcoin performs, even though they are not the same thing... so yeah, it can be interesting to see how much MSTR prices might diverge from BTC spot prices.. and we have frequently found guys aspiring for lower BTC prices, even during periods that they should be buying, just like you were doing in mid-2023 when we were in the upper $20ks, you were so excitedly waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening, so you are again getting excited for down that might not happen... and so yeah, this time might be different so that you can buy some cheaper coins, and perhaps you will not be able to?

But Bitcoin did go its 200-Weekly SMA though, which was a GOOD buying opportunity for me and many of our fellow plebs. I will be of the belief that it will go near or below that again until it doesn't.

I doubt that you benefitted from the 2022 to 2023 period as much as you claim to have had benefitted,

I may not have actual/absolute bottom of the DIP during 2022, but I'm sure I would have bought LESS units in Bitcoin for the same amount of fiat if I didn't wait for the the price to crash near the 200-Weekly SMA.

It's probably going to happen again, and I'm buying.

Yes.  You are stubborn, and you can believe what you like in terms of your own practices in regards to comparing a buying the dip practice to a DCA practice,

I'm not even comparing Buy The DIP and DCA, nor am I telling you that one strategy is better than the other. I'm merely saying, that if there's a DIP, I'm buying. Why are you mad?

 

[Free Market Capitalist]

So you probably should notice that there IS a four-year-cycle, and that won't change until there are obvious validations that it has changed.

What is becoming increasingly clear is that what we call cycles are an abstraction we create by interpreting the past and drawing lines into the future. But those futuristic lines are increasingly failing. At this point in time, no one knows whether 2026 will be bullish or bearish. We cannot even rule out a lost “cycle,” with the price remaining around $100K until the next halving.

[JayJuanGee]

You bet on down when you fail/refuse to buy,

What's wrong with that? You're mad because a person expects that a DIP will happen based on a pattern that has been happening every four years?

Bitcoin has been going up since you got into bitcoin, so you have been a dumb ass

Who are you calling a dumb ass? Bitcoin DOESN'T go up in a straight line. Haha.

Large DIPS keep happening every four years.
  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I was describing your actions, and saying that you have been a dumbass, and I suppose your ongoing arguing and even your arrogance on the topic also contributes to the same (or a similar conclusion). 

I doubt that the empirical evidence show that you outperformed a DCA strategy, especially if we were to start from May 2016.  You can rationalize all that you like and even change facts to proclaim that you were able to buy the bottom and unlikely nonsense like that.

It is way more difficult to time dips than you are conclusory claiming it to be, and even evidence of your behavior shows that you have not been very good at such dip buying... to make up for your otherwise lack of ongoing buying.

Sure it could be possible that you could describe some particular situation in which you were able to beat a DCA strategy, yet those kinds of strategies are difficult to apply in a replicable way, especially for someone who is brand new to bitcoin and who likely would be better off to figure out ways to ongoingly buy bitcoin rather than employing waiting strategies that would likely end up causing whimpy accumulation of bitcoin. 

In the end, each person can decide, and your ideas are mostly dumb and not replicable and even gambling with downs that might not happen, just like they did not happen at previous points when you were waiting for them and you would have had been better off to just use your money to buy bitcoin, such as in mid -2023 when you were waiting for sub $20k prices that did not happen.  I am sure that you have a lot of other periods like that including but not limited to your failure/refusal to buy bitcoin between May 2016 and April 2019.  That was nearly 3 years of waiting, and I doubt that you were even close to benefited from such a dumbass approach to accumulating bitcoin.. when presumptively you did not have any until starting around April 2019 and you could have had gotten started 3-ish years earlier and various points in between.

You have been here in Bitcoin Land longer than most of your fellow plebs like me.

So? 

So you probably should notice that there IS a four-year-cycle, and that won't change until there are obvious validations that it has changed.

Even though I noticed a pattern that seems to follow a 4-year cycle, it does not mean that any newbie to bitcoin should be fucking around trying to figure out such a pattern rather than just getting started buying and just buying bitcoin no matter the price for 4 years straight. I don't see how the existence of a 4-year cycle affects what a newbie should do right now.. and I am referring to a newbie as anyone in their first 4 years of accumulating bitcoin.  Of course if they have been able to greatly front load their bitcoin investment, then they might be in a different position as compared with someone who might have something like a $30k per year income and is buying around $100 per week in bitcoin for the past 3-4 years.  Even a person who had a $30k per year income and had been buying $100 per week of bitcoin for 4 years, he would have had invested around $20k and maybe accumulated a bit more than 0.5 BTC.  i am not sure that puts him in a position to be fucking around changing his strategy, and so in that kind of a situation, I see no reason to deviate from the already existing practice of continuing to buy $100 per week of bitcoin.. since that is about 17% of his income which is already a reasonably aggressive approach.  You are wanting to suggest that the guy should stop buying bitcoin and wait for a dip down to the 200-WMA, which may or may not end up happening? I doubt that waiting is good advice, even if your plan is to wait for such a dip that may or may not end up happening and you may well might be bettr off to just keep buying bitcoin, even though supposedly you have already been buying for the past 6.5-ish years, yet part of your problem is that you have been waiting for a dip since around August 2023, so you have already put yourself into a bit of a pickle through your already less than preferable (and even whimpy) bitcoin accumulation behaviors. I doubt that you have benefitted by your failure/refusal to buy bitcoin in the past more than 2 years, even though you seem to be hoping for redemption if they price ends up dropping to the 200-WMA, which may not end up happening as you are expecting it to do.  You are not in a good position to be doing that, even though you surely have the right to carry out your bitcoin purchases in any way that you deem to be suitable to your circumstances.... even if those are bit seemingly dumb-ass, especially from my perspective of what good bitcoin accumulation practices are.

--Snip--  Since MSTR has has hinged so much of itself on bitcoin, it's behaviors and it's performance ends up affecting how bitcoin performs, even though they are not the same thing... so yeah, it can be interesting to see how much MSTR prices might diverge from BTC spot prices.. and we have frequently found guys aspiring for lower BTC prices, even during periods that they should be buying, just like you were doing in mid-2023 when we were in the upper $20ks, you were so excitedly waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening, so you are again getting excited for down that might not happen... and so yeah, this time might be different so that you can buy some cheaper coins, and perhaps you will not be able to?

But Bitcoin did go its 200-Weekly SMA though, which was a GOOD buying opportunity for me and many of our fellow plebs. I will be of the belief that it will go near or below that again until it doesn't.

I doubt that you benefitted from the 2022 to 2023 period as much as you claim to have had benefitted,

I may not have actual/absolute bottom of the DIP during 2022, but I'm sure I would have bought LESS units in Bitcoin for the same amount of fiat if I didn't wait for the the price to crash near the 200-Weekly SMA.

I doubt that you are measuring in a good way... and sometimes it is bettter to just keep buying, even though you think that there is value to try to keep your cost per BTC down, and I have a lot of doubts about cost per BTC to be a good measurement, especially when you have been aware of bitcoin for 9.5 years, and even if we do not start from May 2016, there is some point that you should have gotten the fuck started rather than ongoingly fucking around with waiting and planning for down, and that has not been a good strategy in bitcoin - even if you are trying to suggest that you are better off for your waiting behaviors and your buying the dip behaviors.. I don't believe that it has been good for you and I don't believe that it is good as a general practice, especially for guys who are in their early stages of accumulating bitcoin, whether their first whole cycle or maybe even longer than a whole cycle since it can take a long time to really build up a decent bitcoin portfolio, and trying to time dips is an inferior approach, since the dips might not happen and you end up spending a lot of time waiting and not ongoingly reinforcing the buying of bitcoin, which ends up in way less bitcoin than you could have otherwise had.

It's probably going to happen again, and I'm buying.

Yes.  You are stubborn, and you can believe what you like in terms of your own practices in regards to comparing a buying the dip practice to a DCA practice,

I'm not even comparing Buy The DIP and DCA, nor am I telling you that one strategy is better than the other. I'm merely saying, that if there's a DIP, I'm buying. Why are you mad?

I am telling you that you are preaching an inferior practice, even if you are proclaiming to not argue it as being superior.   Your system has fucked you in the past, and you seem to love following the same practice and ending up with way less bitcoin than you otherwise could have had and should have had if you had followed a more regular system.

Hard to take you seriously when you don't even seem to be trying to be reasonable, even in regards to your own ongoing description of your practices. ..and yeah, in the end, you have the right to do whatever you like, even if it is dumb, and so I am frequently letting you know that it is both dumb and it is an inferior way to accumulate bitcoin in the event that your goal is to accumulate bitcoin and to potentially reach fuck you status at some point in the future.

[ultrloa]

Looking great and Michael Saylor just announce the recent purchase of Strategy.

Wow where did he get the money from. Well likely from issuing common stocks
That's what I can really think of now and those that own it would suffer from price dilution.
I guess this is a gamble that Bitcoin Would go higher from here
And investors getting the stock shows confidence.


I believe they are the only Bitcoin treasuries holding company that are still buying.
That's speaks volumes to alot.

All information is posted in their tracker regarding on where they get those funds they used for their this purchase, here it is Details about their largest purchase is here

Well that's how it is you know Saylor always take the risk and we can see that he's eager to accumulate more Bitcoin whatever it takes. Also I don't think they are the only company still buying Bitcoin since there are still lots of them positioning company to acquire lots of Bitcoin. Look at this article  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/metaplanet-goes-full-microstrategy-150m-130216864.html and provably there are more, we are just focus here on Strategy because this is dedicated thread for their company.

[fillippone]

We must remember that when they ATM MSTR, they are diluting shareholders.

They are diluting investors, in my opinion, only if the BTC yield is below zero.
I see MSTR as a way of purchasing Bitcoin, so for me, the true hurdle rate is the SATS/Share ratio.
I know this is different from traditional finance, where the raised capital dilutes existing shareholders, but I am changing the perspective a little here.

[Abuobyda218]

[STRATEGY ISSUES LETTER TO MSCI




MSTR urges the index provider to drop its plan to classify Digital Asset Treasuries as funds, calling the 50% digital asset cap discriminatory, unworkable, anti-innovation, and inconsistent with neutral indexing.

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