US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[romero121]

Today there would've been change in the win percentage as Trump has tested positive for covid-19. This is the first time in history a virus attack is making a change in the election result. With this Trump won't be able to participate in upcoming debate and staging on campaigns which is the final move to change the vote.

[Juggy777]

Today there would've been change in the win percentage as Trump has tested positive for covid-19. This is the first time in history a virus attack is making a change in the election result. With this Trump won't be able to participate in upcoming debate and staging on campaigns which is the final move to change the vote.

@romero121 who do you think is leading due to Trump getting the virus, because I personally feel that it won’t have any major effect on Trump’s rating, and secondly people may also be upset with Democrats as they have advertisement false information wherein they had claimed that Trump had called corona a hoax. Also I believe that the debates will be carried on virtually, because Trump knows that he cannot afford to miss these debates, but let’s wait for an official confirmation about this.

Sources:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/17/politics/joe-biden-campaign-ad-trump-coronavirus-hoax-fact-check/index.html

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321347/trump-pre-debate-job-approval-highest-may.aspx

https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2020/09/10061776/will-there-be-another-debate-2020

[Yaunfitda]

Today there would've been change in the win percentage as Trump has tested positive for covid-19. This is the first time in history a virus attack is making a change in the election result. With this Trump won't be able to participate in upcoming debate and staging on campaigns which is the final move to change the vote.

I don't understand though, why would Trump getting covid-19 affects his chances though? In fact Trump can use this to his advantage and play the victim here and move US to his favour by claiming that he will fight this virus. Probably he can go on the debate, and obviously the other side will not go as well. And debates can be done on-line right? So I doubt that it will have a negative effect, on the contrary Trump can play this card successfully.

[johhnyUA]

I don't understand though, why would Trump getting covid-19 affects his chances though? In fact Trump can use this to his advantage and play the victim here and move US to his favour by claiming that he will fight this virus. Probably he can go on the debate, and obviously the other side will not go as well. And debates can be done on-line right? So I doubt that it will have a negative effect, on the contrary Trump can play this card successfully.

I watched his previous debates with Biden and can say that he was too bad, so online debates it's not an option for him. Also, about coronavirus: more likely that after his recover he will tell everyone that there is nothing to afraid and corona it's just a myth or something like that.

It's bad, because after debates i lost some faith in Trump and now doubt about this chances to win. And doubt that i will get back my money which i bet on him 

[Timelord2067]

Anyone know if there are prices for VP Pence assuming office in 2020 or the (post swearing in) VP assuming office in 2021?

What odds would that be?

[AniviaBtc]

I expect Biden will win by a hair and Trump will not want to give up so easily and will contest the result in court with his main argument being the high number of absentee voters.

If it happens we can expect protests and possibly a stock market crash like in Spring.

I also think that Joe Biden will win this 2020 elections because his stand towards racism and economic growth.

I want him to win due to his advocacy that he want to really make US have a good quality of life even if we are experiencing pandemic.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Anyone know if there are prices for VP Pence assuming office in 2020 or the (post swearing in) VP assuming office in 2021?
What odds would that be?

You should have made the bet before the COVID 19 diagnosis of Trump. Then you could have got odds such as 1/200 or 1/300. But now the odds have changed drastically. I checked Bookies.com. Pence was at +50000 last week. Yesterday they revised his odds at +1700. Biden went form -121 to -200, while Trump is now +190 (from +100 last week). Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton are unchanged, at +10,000 and +25,000 respectively.

https://bookies.com/news/us-presidential-election-odds-2020-weekly-rundown-trump-covid-19-impact

[Fundamentals Of]

I expect Biden will win by a hair and Trump will not want to give up so easily and will contest the result in court with his main argument being the high number of absentee voters.

If it happens we can expect protests and possibly a stock market crash like in Spring.

I want him to win due to his advocacy that he want to really make US have a good quality of life even if we are experiencing pandemic.

This is nothing but a promise which is very cheap during campaign time. Biden is not the only one who claims to really want the best kind of life for every American. That is also what Trump wants. That is what every single politician wants. It's not a different kind of promise. That is heard from all the mouths of politicians from all over the world, even in places ruled by unscrupulous murderers and dictators.

For me, the populism of Trump has not subsided yet and this is going to be a 50/50 fight for both of them.

[bryant.coleman]

For me, the populism of Trump has not subsided yet and this is going to be a 50/50 fight for both of them.

Back in 2016, Trump as a politician was a new comer. His opponent (Hillary) had a lot of past baggage and a large section of the population voted for Trump not because they agreed with his policies, but because they wanted to make sure that Hillary never becomes the president. Times have changed. Trump's disapproval ratings have remained consistently in the 50-55% range, and his opponent this time is regarded as a moderate (I am talking about Biden, and not about Kamala).

[CODE200]

Well, I am not from the country of the US but I have a little idea how Trump managed the US country under his control, --and now people will take decide if they will continue to accept Trump again or not. As I see the data gave above, Joe Biden has got a doubled result compared to the score of Donald Trump.
This could perhaps a very interesting game if you gamble to them, we really don't know who will be the next president of America but I smell that it is Joe Biden since he is people's choice.

Yes. That will be the setup in there. The people are just going to decide whether they would want for Donald Trump to continue governing the US or they will shift into switching into another candidate which is Joe Biden the former vice president of the country. It will be up to them to decide for they have experienced being governed by both individuals. But the poll results will surely not affect the official and final result of the election for there might be sudden change of minds with regards to the people's choice. Maybe on the polls Biden is the leading but Trump might still be the president after the election or Biden will be the newly elected president once election process have been done and all votes have been casted. Whether what the result will be, the important bet in here is the future sake of the US so they better be wise on voting.

[bbc.reporter]

For me, the populism of Trump has not subsided yet and this is going to be a 50/50 fight for both of them.

Back in 2016, Trump as a politician was a new comer. His opponent (Hillary) had a lot of past baggage and a large section of the population voted for Trump not because they agreed with his policies, but because they wanted to make sure that Hillary never becomes the president. Times have changed. Trump's disapproval ratings have remained consistently in the 50-55% range, and his opponent this time is regarded as a moderate (I am talking about Biden, and not about Kamala).

I disagree. The same segment of the population that voted for Trump remains having a similar attitude on 2016. Democrats support of defund the police and the black lives matter riots destroying communities? The young liberals should go out and vote if they do not want Trump hehe. However, I reckon young are also divided.

Also watch the video Trump's new campaign storyboard. The Return of the King hehehehe.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1313267143232942081?s=12

[bryant.coleman]

I disagree. The same segment of the population that voted for Trump remains having a similar attitude on 2016. Democrats support of defund the police and the black lives matter riots destroying communities? The young liberals should go out and vote if they do not want Trump hehe. However, I reckon young are also divided.

Also watch the video Trump's new campaign storyboard. The Return of the King hehehehe.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1313267143232942081?s=12

From what I have seen, the mainstream media is showing only one side of the debate. They are showing the BLM movement and the protest marches, but they never show the violence and rioting that is being done by the left wing militias. On the other hand, they are trying to paint a picture that it is the right-wing militias that are committing most of the violence. For example, the panelists trying to blame Pretty Boys and other right wing groups for violence during the first presidential debate. But Trump was smart, and he explicitly stated that the ANTIFA and the other left-groups are responsible for most of the rioting.

[thesmallgod]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

It is likely the bet get voided. It happens a lot to such bet. It get postponed and if no resolution is held on time, the bet get void. I don't know the American proceedings as regard to not conceding defeat to loss of election but if at the end of the election, one of the candidate refuse to accept the result, he or she proceed to court and in such cases, it might take months for the court to give judgement

[DoublerHunter]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

It is likely the bet get voided. It happens a lot to such bet. It get postponed and if no resolution is held on time, the bet get void. I don't know the American proceedings as regard to not conceding defeat to loss of election but if at the end of the election, one of the candidate refuse to accept the result, he or she proceed to court and in such cases, it might take months for the court to give judgement

^ Do you meant that the election day is postponed? Nah, that will not happen because there is a law that the election day will must go on.
As I always say, Donald Trump plays the game unexpectedly. Polls might be pointed to Joe Biden, but the end result is always the thing that we need to consider. Joe Biden on the other hand could offer a unique experience of leadership to US as he is a Democrat.  People are betting for this election and odds are on Trump. But I don't see any way that this can be predicted easily. Nevertheless, thats a good bet anyway!

[Ryker1]

I wonder what will happen to your bet if the result takes weeks/months to be decided, or is never decided (with someone else becoming president) ? Since Trump is already saying he might not accept the result...

It is likely the bet get voided. It happens a lot to such bet. It get postponed and if no resolution is held on time, the bet get void. I don't know the American proceedings as regard to not conceding defeat to loss of election but if at the end of the election, one of the candidate refuse to accept the result, he or she proceed to court and in such cases, it might take months for the court to give judgement

^ Do you meant that the election day is postponed? Nah, that will not happen because there is a law that the election day will must go on.
As I always say, Donald Trump plays the game unexpectedly. Polls might be pointed to Joe Biden, but the end result is always the thing that we need to consider. Joe Biden on the other hand could offer a unique experience of leadership to US as he is a Democrat.  People are betting for this election and odds are on Trump. But I don't see any way that this can be predicted easily. Nevertheless, thats a good bet anyway!

Well, the bet would take months to decide, Trump is not in good condition for the Presidency due to his health. Biden is healthier than him anyways.
And that influences the rate of votes for the two as Biden benefitting on that criteria. Trump is not good with a debate as well, I am afraid, Biden too. But we will see. I will be looking forward for updated polls to participate in this betting. I hope the OP will be able to provide updates and development with integrity.
I am little bit excited if Biden will become a President ^[soon] in the US.

[coupable]

Even Trump wasn't like any other US president in the US history, considering how he governs and what he did in US foreign policy, we can't deny the fact that he doesn't lose supporters from the last 2016 election. Those who still believe that Trump is the one who can make America Great. Baiden still have to convince the americans that he can deal with existing issues including the fight against Corona, but this is somehow a hard task for him if he just continue to attack Trump like we saw in the first debate. For me, both don't deserve to be elected for presidential but i will be more excited if the americans vote for Trump again .

[notblox1]

Trump just announced he is delaying stimulus package for after elections, and all markets dropped after this including Bitcoin.
I am not sure how this will affect elections but that means that we can't expect any major rise in markets, and there is real fud situation now.
We are not even sure if there will be any more debates, because Trump still has corona virus, but I am still betting he will again be president.
Looking at odds now Biden is big favorite:
https://bitedge.com/odds-comparisons/us-presidential-election/

[Johnyz]

Trump just announced he is delaying stimulus package for after elections, and all markets dropped after this including Bitcoin.
I am not sure how this will affect elections but that means that we can't expect any major rise in markets, and there is real fud situation now.
We are not even sure if there will be any more debates, because Trump still has corona virus, but I am still betting he will again be president.
Looking at odds now Biden is big favorite:
https://bitedge.com/odds-comparisons/us-presidential-election/

The shows continues for Trump and yes, no more debates but for sure they will continue to campaign everywhere and hopefully Trump recover as soon as possible so the market can recover as well. There’s a good chance for Biden to win on this campaign, whatever the result is I hope the stocks and cryptomarket recover big time after the US presidential election.

[figmentofmyass]

the betting markets didn't take too kindly to trump's coronavirus diagnosis. did anybody bet trump when his odds were below 30%? punters must have been getting close to 3.5!

Trump just announced he is delaying stimulus package for after elections, and all markets dropped after this including Bitcoin.

dumb move. what the hell is he thinking? that's just pissing away votes. he could at least keep talks open even if he wants to delay the actual stimulus. i'm beginning to get the feeling that trump is subtly giving up and doesn't even wanna win the election anymore.

[Timelord2067]

Trump just announced he is delaying stimulus package for after elections, and all markets dropped after this including Bitcoin.

If the price of bitcoin dropped, I must have blinked as it seems to be about the same as it has been for days/weeks now.  With the election just under a month no one should be enabling mammoth financial packages that might not make it past election day.  There should be a period of "Caretaker" mode the same as in Australia, the UK, New Zealand and Canada between when an election is called and when the returns are declared and the winner decided.