US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[Vishnu.Reang]

Now this is funny! Online bookmakers cut Joe Biden 2020 US election odds over the weekend (from -192 following the vice-presidential debate to -225) = chances of winning the 2020 US election have grown from 65.8% to 69.2%.

On paper Biden may be having a 69% probability of winning next month's election. Ground reports also indicate the same. But there is a very high margin of error. A large part of the voting this time takes place though postal vote, and there is a high probability of these ballots getting incorrectly marked, spoiled, misplaced or destroyed before reaching the counting centers. This is going to have more impact on Biden's chances, as his supporters are more likely to use the postal route.

[Timelord2067]

On paper Biden may be having a 69% probability of winning next month's election. Ground reports also indicate the same. But there is a very high margin of error. A large part of the voting this time takes place though postal vote, and there is a high probability of these ballots getting incorrectly marked, spoiled, misplaced or destroyed before reaching the counting centers. This is going to have more impact on Biden's chances, as his supporters are more likely to use the postal route.

Look to the online sites and what their odds are for the candidates.  I can't help but wonder if those surveyed publicly are being guarded in who they say they are going to vote for but in private have different ideas as to who they want in office.

[bryant.coleman]

Look to the online sites and what their odds are for the candidates.  I can't help but wonder if those surveyed publicly are being guarded in who they say they are going to vote for but in private have different ideas as to who they want in office.

Online polls assume that the voter turnout will be same as the case with 2016. And this can increase the error margin. It may not impact the outcome in deep-blue or deep-red states. But in some of the swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania, the margin can be less than 1% and here the difference in voter turnout can swing the results either way. 

[Onuohakk]

The America election will not be an easy one. The whole world gats their eyes on them to see what will be of the election at the end.
Whether Biden or Trump having a better chance to win or both planning to challenge each other in court after the election. One thing is sure, that a winner must emerge.

[Vishnu.Reang]

On paper Biden may be having a 69% probability of winning next month's election. Ground reports also indicate the same. But there is a very high margin of error. A large part of the voting this time takes place though postal vote, and there is a high probability of these ballots getting incorrectly marked, spoiled, misplaced or destroyed before reaching the counting centers. This is going to have more impact on Biden's chances, as his supporters are more likely to use the postal route.

Look to the online sites and what their odds are for the candidates.  I can't help but wonder if those surveyed publicly are being guarded in who they say they are going to vote for but in private have different ideas as to who they want in office.

That happened in 2016, when some of the voters in the rust-belt states refused to publicly state that they are going to vote for Donald Trump. In the end, the opinion polls ended up undercounting the support for Trump in a number of states. That said, many of the polling agencies now claim that their new methodology takes in to account this undercount. So nothing can be said for sure, as of now.

[Juggy777]

On paper Biden may be having a 69% probability of winning next month's election. Ground reports also indicate the same. But there is a very high margin of error. A large part of the voting this time takes place though postal vote, and there is a high probability of these ballots getting incorrectly marked, spoiled, misplaced or destroyed before reaching the counting centers. This is going to have more impact on Biden's chances, as his supporters are more likely to use the postal route.

Look to the online sites and what their odds are for the candidates.  I can't help but wonder if those surveyed publicly are being guarded in who they say they are going to vote for but in private have different ideas as to who they want in office.

That happened in 2016, when some of the voters in the rust-belt states refused to publicly state that they are going to vote for Donald Trump. In the end, the opinion polls ended up undercounting the support for Trump in a number of states. That said, many of the polling agencies now claim that their new methodology takes in to account this undercount. So nothing can be said for sure, as of now.

@Vishnu.Reang in my personal opinion Trump has no surprise card left which can increase his chances of winning, unless of course he chooses to contest the election results in court. Furthermore another factor which will harm Trump’s chances of winning is that Indians who live in US plan to vote for Biden, and their votes matter a lot in this election.

Sources:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/trump-supreme-court-2020-election-president-b559674.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/biden-harris-indian-americans.html

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/why-the-indian-american-voter-matters-to-both-trump-and-biden-5863691.html

[abhiseshakana]

The America election will not be an easy one. The whole world gats their eyes on them to see what will be of the election at the end.
Whether Biden or Trump having a better chance to win or both planning to challenge each other in court after the election. One thing is sure, that a winner must emerge.

Of course, because the two candidates both have supporters and they also have their own strategies to win the election. Even though Biden is leading presidential polls now, we still cannot underestimate the chance of Trump to come out as the winner again.

If we look at the 2016 election where Hilary led the polls but the one who came out as the winner was Trump, so there is a possibility that in this election Trump could reverse the situation again. But currently, Trump has coronavirus and maybe it will affect his campaign so his chances of winning the election are getting smaller.

[tyz]

The America election will not be an easy one. The whole world gats their eyes on them to see what will be of the election at the end.
Whether Biden or Trump having a better chance to win or both planning to challenge each other in court after the election. One thing is sure, that a winner must emerge.

Of course, because the two candidates both have supporters and they also have their own strategies to win the election. Even though Biden is leading presidential polls now, we still cannot underestimate the chance of Trump to come out as the winner again.

If we look at the 2016 election where Hilary led the polls but the one who came out as the winner was Trump, so there is a possibility that in this election Trump could reverse the situation again. But currently, Trump has coronavirus and maybe it will affect his campaign so his chances of winning the election are getting smaller.

The polls are completely irrelevant. It is a known fact (even among scientists there is now a consensus) that many, especially Trump voters, no longer provide any or correct information in the polls. That is why some polls indicate an uncertainty factor of +-7.5%. In addition, it is not the total votes that count (if so, Biden would be become President for sure), but the electors and in many key states Biden has a slight lead (Hillary had the same four years ago), but with the above mentioned uncertainty factors, these states can easily go to Trump and then he will reach the 270 electors to remain president.

[jostorres]

The difference this year is that people are going out to vote, what democratic party couldn't do themselves in 2016, Trump managed to do in 2020 for them. Normally Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden are not candidates that could make people go out to vote, even though Clinton won the popular vote, she didn't made people from important swing states go out and vote for her, because she wasn't appealing, Biden is not neither, he is not as troubled as Hillary when it comes to "likability" issue, but he is not Obama neither.

However this time around we know Trump, and everyone who hates him will go out and vote, just Texas had like 10% of all voters from last election come out and vote on FIRST DAY of early voting, so there will be highest turnout rate this year just because people want to vote against Trump, not because they want to vote for Biden.

[jademaxsuy]

^ Probably the odds will favor into the former vice-president Joe Biden, the Democratic party’s nominee. He has a lot of votes according to the survey, but this will not give any guarantee on his winning. We know that Press Donald Trump was on his position and probably he can easily be used that strategy by on his own benefits. Nevertheless, if you want to place your bet at ( https://22bet.com/line/Politics/ ), do it now on this gambling site that has political betting. Very interesting match, you can watch on your television too.

Trump will use his influence as the current president to get advantage on this election. It is expected already because he is eager to win this election and wanted to lead another years as President in one of the establish country in the world.

However, Trump should not be feeling confident enough to win because he had now having a great rival in the presidential position.

It seems Biden too were being supported and votes will be surely going to be divided and we can't speculate what will going to happen next.

[leea-1334]

However this time around we know Trump, and everyone who hates him will go out and vote, just Texas had like 10% of all voters from last election come out and vote on FIRST DAY of early voting, so there will be highest turnout rate this year just because people want to vote against Trump, not because they want to vote for Biden.

I do not like Trump. But we have many politicians like that in other countries and from my personal experience: people who hate politicians like that are willing to spend days on Social Media, but not go to make a vote.

On the other hand people who love the Trumps actually take the time to go out to vote and puff out their chest.

[bryant.coleman]

I do not like Trump. But we have many politicians like that in other countries and from my personal experience: people who hate politicians like that are willing to spend days on Social Media, but not go to make a vote.

On the other hand people who love the Trumps actually take the time to go out to vote and puff out their chest.

I would agree. The voter turnout among the left-wing groups have been historically low. And it will be even lower this time, due to the COVID 19 pandemic. On the other hand, the Trump supporters are not even taking this pandemic seriously. They refuse to wear masks and they regularly ignore social distancing. So I would assume that Trump supporters are more likely to turn up to vote.

[figmentofmyass]

regardless of what the polls or betting odds say, i think a biden victory is becoming increasingly likely.

people are focusing too much on the inaccuracy of polls, the silent trump vote, and other themes from 2016. what they should be focusing on is the extremely high level of voter engagement heading into the 2020 election (based on voter registrations, early voter turnout, etc) which suggests a very high overall turnout is coming. many are expecting voter turnout to hit new records this year. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/2020-election-turnout/616640/

that puts things heavily in favor of biden and the democrats. i'm even starting to wonder if the dems will take a majority in the senate too.

[johhnyUA]

that puts things heavily in favor of biden and the democrats. i'm even starting to wonder if the dems will take a majority in the senate too.

I remember we're talked about it before. I think that unlike 2016, when zoomers and millenials just skipped their chance to vote, this time they all will vote for sure. And your link above just support my suggestions. It's not good for me, because i've already bet for Trump victory with 2.65 odd :c

Anyway, that's life

The voter turnout among the left-wing groups have been historically low.

 

No, vise versa, i think historical high. They understood since 2016 that the only way to change something in their favor - it's to vote.

The difference this year is that people are going out to vote, what democratic party couldn't do themselves in 2016, Trump managed to do in 2020 for them. Normally Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden are not candidates that could make people go out to vote

However this time around we know Trump, and everyone who hates him will go out and vote, just Texas had like 10% of all voters from last election come out and vote on FIRST DAY of early voting, so there will be highest turnout rate this year just because people want to vote against Trump, not because they want to vote for Biden.

Exactly. Even Biden is 83 years old and i saw already has a problems with memory and speaking (dementia i think), many people will better vote for him, rather then for Trump (and for honest, i don't think is this good or bad)

[bbc.reporter]

regardless of what the polls or betting odds say, i think a biden victory is becoming increasingly likely.

people are focusing too much on the inaccuracy of polls, the silent trump vote, and other themes from 2016. what they should be focusing on is the extremely high level of voter engagement heading into the 2020 election (based on voter registrations, early voter turnout, etc) which suggests a very high overall turnout is coming. many are expecting voter turnout to hit new records this year. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/2020-election-turnout/616640/

that puts things heavily in favor of biden and the democrats. i'm even starting to wonder if the dems will take a majority in the senate too.

However, it can also be argued that 2016 also had extremely high level of optimism for a Hillary victory. It was speculated to be close to a certainty by the pollsters.

A person's vote will never be a certainty until the shades are made on the ballot.

[hd49728]

Surveys inside US and news from US newspapers are not reliable. They fall into one of two sides: Democrats or Republic. Surveys and news from other countries can be more reliable and if the Wisdom of the Crowd is true, I believe Trump will win the election. I am not on the side of Democrats or Republic and I am neutral but from oversea survey and newspapers, Trump has his chance to win the election.

Better economy, lower rate of unemployment, bring back jobs, etc. He has done well but not did greatest records in history of the US

[Xxmodded]

I want to bet that Donald Trump will remain the seed to become President of America, he will serve two terms at the same time because his competitors at Joe Biden are not very influential to counter Donald Trump's electability. The presidential election of the United States five years ago against Trump also could not speak much because Trump's vision and mission against China made many people of the United States to vote for him. Moreover, Joe Biden's opponent Donald Trump raised an issue about Trump saying he was anti-Muslim, but the fact is that during Trump's presidency there has been no persecution against Muslims so far.

[DrG]

Bet on the candidate that you're not voting for, that way even if your candidate loses the race you win some money for a stiff drink haha.

Seriously though I'm not seeing any wagers for Senate races which are quite important. Has anybody seen any options for those?

[Vishnu.Reang]

regardless of what the polls or betting odds say, i think a biden victory is becoming increasingly likely.

people are focusing too much on the inaccuracy of polls, the silent trump vote, and other themes from 2016. what they should be focusing on is the extremely high level of voter engagement heading into the 2020 election (based on voter registrations, early voter turnout, etc) which suggests a very high overall turnout is coming. many are expecting voter turnout to hit new records this year. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/2020-election-turnout/616640/

that puts things heavily in favor of biden and the democrats. i'm even starting to wonder if the dems will take a majority in the senate too.

Too early to talk about the turnout. The majority of the Democrat voters are saying that they would refuse to go to the polling booths. Yesterday the CNN reported that close to 22 million have cast their postal ballots already. It is still a tiny fraction of the total number of ballots cast in 2016. According to some estimates, around 12% of the 2016 votes have been cast till now. Things won't be clear, until we have the final polling numbers.

[bbc.reporter]

It appears that the Ukraine and China connection issue on Biden has caused Trump's odds to move into his favor. Will this movement continue for the final days until election day hehehe?

https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/

Also, why are the Democrats very insistent that Russia is the enemy and not China? I speculate China will unofficially rule all over the world if the winner is Biden.