US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[bryant.coleman]

I would prefer Kamala Harris a candidate than Biden. Honestly, on election day, the state, which I wonder most about, will be the state of Atlanta. Democrats can win a surprise victory in this state, according to the survey results.

There is no state called Atlanta. It is one of the cities within the US state of Georgia. You are right in pointing out that some of the opinion polls had Joe Biden in the lead. But recently, the race there have tightened and I guess Trump is having the upper hand now. In the end, everything comes down to turnout. If both the camps turn out to vote in equal numbers, then Biden wins.

[Oneandpure]

I would prefer Kamala Harris a candidate than Biden. Honestly, on election day, the state, which I wonder most about, will be the state of Atlanta. Democrats can win a surprise victory in this state, according to the survey results.

There is no state called Atlanta. It is one of the cities within the US state of Georgia. You are right in pointing out that some of the opinion polls had Joe Biden in the lead. But recently, the race there have tightened and I guess Trump is having the upper hand now. In the end, everything comes down to turnout. If both the camps turn out to vote in equal numbers, then Biden wins.

A week before the presidential campaign of the United States, the two candidates Donald Trump and Joe Bidden have each prepared themselves to attract sympathizers from the votes of the United States people. Donald Trump will start his inaugural campaign in the Michigan state, which will certainly be a very important moment for Trump to regain the important position and win the Michigan state as he won the full vote five years ago. Joe Bidden is also very confident to be able to beat Donald Trump's defense and become President of the United States in the next five years, Joe Bidden started the campaign in a part of Georgia where the majority of supporters of the Republican party, will be a very great reminder between Donald Trump and Joe Bidden for became president of the United States.

[notblox1]

techcrunch.com

Donald Trump official website was hacked and hackers asked for payments in monero, claiming they have information that Trump was involved in origin of corona virus and that he is manipulating us elections.
They posted FBI parody image this site has been seized message

Read full report from techcrunch website:
https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/27/trumps-campaign-website-hacked-by-cryptocurrency-scammers/

[STT]

I don't think that a Biden win is guaranteed but when I look at it rationally most of the evidence seems to point in that direction.

Trump needs the diversity in states won across the country and he lacks the larger popular vote numbers to appear large in polls.   So lacking votes to clinch a win in a variety of states won last time puts the whole win into jeopardy for him, just 1 particular state by itself isnt a deal breaker but a trend or streak of of states won in 2016 now missing would probably seal his fate on this.

Early voting in the US election has now topped 70 million, more than half of the total turnout in 2016

Lots of early voting makes sense but seems like we might have a higher turn out this time also as both sides sense its close.  In 2016 there was apathy and some just determined to avoid both candidates was my take at the time.   So far Ive not noticed Biden making too many notable negative headlines or sticking points, obviously in comparison to the usual mud slinging in any contest.

[emrecemsan]

I would prefer Kamala Harris a candidate than Biden. Honestly, on election day, the state, which I wonder most about, will be the state of Atlanta. Democrats can win a surprise victory in this state, according to the survey results.

There is no state called Atlanta. It is one of the cities within the US state of Georgia. You are right in pointing out that some of the opinion polls had Joe Biden in the lead. But recently, the race there have tightened and I guess Trump is having the upper hand now. In the end, everything comes down to turnout. If both the camps turn out to vote in equal numbers, then Biden wins.

You are right, it got distracted for a moment, but I stand behind what I said. Republicans have been winning in Georgia since 1992, but this time that could change. When I look at the survey results, I see that the state of Texas is also in a critical situation.

[asus09]

Whether there is a betting site between Donald Trump and Joe Bidden that is worthy of becoming president of the United States, it seems interesting enough to have Donald Trump return to serving as president of the United States in his second term. Almost the same as what happened to the previous president Barack Obama who was able to become president of the United States twice in a row, I think the same thing was followed by Donald Trump who was able to win this time against Joe Bidden. If there is a bet I would rather place on Donald Trump.

[FinneysTrueVision]

I keep thinking that Trump still has a puncher's chance but he just can't help himself from making unforced errors. The latest one is from last night when he left his supporters stranded out in the cold. It might not have been his fault but it just looks bad and keeps Biden's gaffes out of the headlines. Biden's strategy of running out the clock might just be enough to get the victory.

[figmentofmyass]

fivethirtyeight dropped trump's odds to 11%---wow. betfair still has him at 34%.

Early voting in the US election has now topped 70 million, more than half of the total turnout in 2016

Lots of early voting makes sense but seems like we might have a higher turn out this time also as both sides sense its close.

most democrats say they are voting early, while most republicans say they will vote on election day. how true both of those claims are will make a big difference.

there are some early signs that the democrat advantage associated with early voter turnout is being overstated. and if republicans really do show up on election day in those numbers, then the race becomes much more competitive. https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/522939-early-voting-trends-show-democrats-falling-short-in-3-of-4

Forbes polling indicates that roughly half of all voters plan to vote early, with 62 percent of Democrats planning to vote early while 72 percent of Republicans plan to wait and vote on Election Day. If that happened and independents split evenly (last time Trump won them), then Democrats would need to win early voting at least 70 percent to 30 percent to be on pace to barely overcome a 31 percent to 69 percent disadvantage in partisan Election Day votes.

The Elect Project indicates Democrats are only hitting that mark in one of four battleground states where data on the partisan breakdown of early voters is available.

If Biden's polling edge in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin holds up, then even flipping Nevada would leave Trump five electoral votes short at 264. However, reports of the Democrats’ edge in mail in votes is exaggerated due to noncompetitive states like California where 2.9 million Democrats and only 1.1 million Republicans have voted early. If 72 percent of Republicans really are waiting until Election Day to vote the race becomes very close.

A strong ground game is crucial to Democrats, normally including collecting ballots everywhere from college campuses to nursing homes, and on Election Day driving thousands of vans filled with likely supporters to the polls. None of that is happening because of COVID-19, and the first time they tried to win an election with no ground game resulted in a double-digit loss.

The fact that Republicans were knocking on a million doors a week compared to none for Biden until the final weeks will result in Republicans winning Election Day by millions of votes. So far the Democrats have not built the 70 percent to 30 percent edge they need in early voting to wrap up a win.

[bbc.reporter]

This article published on November 8, 2016 which was the day of the election for that year. There were many polls, news and reasons that created fake storyboards for a Hillary victory.

I reckon in 6 days we might witness how deceitful and devious the mainstream fakenews media are again.

Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.
Last updated Tuesday, November 8 at 10:20 PM ET

Source https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

[sana54210]

What democrats are doing very very different these days is the fact that they are going places they have never been before and never really cared about. I am not saying states like Texas or Florida never been democrat, they have been and quite possibly could be soon as well (now or on next ones) but they didn't spend that much money on it because they assumed it would be better to spend it on swing states to make it work for them better, sorf of like efficiency thing, why spend 10 million on Texas to gain maybe 1 point and still lose when you can spend that 10 million on 3 states and swing it to you potentially?

But, nowadays they are doing so much better in economics thanks to everyone hating Trump and donating to Biden, so they are doing tons of work on all states which makes republicans spend their only left over money on places like Texas and Florida to keep what they have and not focus on what they could.

[Pulsar77]

There are too many people here who think Trump will win. I also know he surprised in 2016, but that doesn't mean President Trump can always surprise. This time there is a very strong opposition to him. Even though the former president, Obama, did not like Biden during his presidency, now even he is holding a rally for Biden.

[bbc.reporter]

@Pulsar77. Source of where you read that Obama did not like Biden during his administration? I know they trusted each other very much to have Biden present when Obama requested for the FBI director to spy on Trump after he leaves his post.

[tbterryboy]

It is not about polls or not even about news media, it is all about data that you can collect that is probably true that should allow you to see what you can in the results, obviously the only true situation that you should accept the results would be the official ones, when the results are in we will all know what is going on, before that you should never assume anything, not a month ago, not a year ago and not a week before the elections neither, anything could happen.

Right now all the pointers are showing Biden winning, not just because Biden is a good candidate, which I think he is maybe decent at best, not even good but he doesn't look terrible neither, but mainly because there are A LOT MORE trump haters today than there were 4 years ago, polls are showing millions of people vote "against trump" instead of "for Biden" and many experts say that this could be enough for Biden to win, as long as people hate trump, the only option is Biden and he could become president just because there was no other candidate not named trump.

[Savemore]

It is not about polls or not even about news media, it is all about data that you can collect that is probably true that should allow you to see what you can in the results, obviously the only true situation that you should accept the results would be the official ones, when the results are in we will all know what is going on, before that you should never assume anything, not a month ago, not a year ago and not a week before the elections neither, anything could happen.

Right now all the pointers are showing Biden winning, not just because Biden is a good candidate, which I think he is maybe decent at best, not even good but he doesn't look terrible neither, but mainly because there are A LOT MORE trump haters today than there were 4 years ago, polls are showing millions of people vote "against trump" instead of "for Biden" and many experts say that this could be enough for Biden to win, as long as people hate trump, the only option is Biden and he could become president just because there was no other candidate not named trump.

Actually there are a lot of fake data around the internet so we should not purely base out information there because there are really certain people who are trolling and spreading fake news. The two candidates are keep bashing each other to their past mistakes, what I like is seeing their recent debates because you will see who is really the worth and deserve the title "president". I know that trump have a lot of haters but it doesn't mean that Biden will surely get the position, Trump already proved that he can do imaginable things and he has the Winner mentality and my prediction is Trump will win again in presidential election.

I recently saw the supporters of trump which are hella a lot, a lot of entrepreneurs and businessman also like trump because of his mentality. Anyway, He already proved in the past year of his administration that he can do a lot of things. Actually the stock market is keep creating all time high because of what he keep doing.

[mu_enrico]

I admit I've placed some bet on Trump.
The rationale is simple. He is the incumbent, and the only incumbent I remember lost was Bush vs Bill "I did not have sexual relations with that woman" Clinton. Bush was crap, and Clinton was superb.

This time though, Biden is also a crappy candidate. He is too old! C'mon man!

[Juggy777]

I admit I've placed some bet on Trump.
The rationale is simple. He is the incumbent, and the only incumbent I remember lost was Bush vs Bill "I did not have sexual relations with that woman" Clinton. Bush was crap, and Clinton was superb.

This time though, Biden is also a crappy candidate. He is too old! C'mon man!

@mu_enrico circumstances are way different for this election, because this pendamic has turned the tide in Biden’s favour, and now people don’t care about his age because for them Trump needs to go. Furthermore it’s a little late, but US economy did rebound in q3, but I’m not sure if it’ll be enough for voters to come out and vote for Trump?. Lastly as I keep repeating that Indo Americans are with Biden, and that’s why I feel that he’s very close to winning this election.

Sources:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/28/new-polling-shows-how-pandemic-is-hobbling-trumps-reelection-chances/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/biden-harris-indian-americans.html

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-politics-virus-outbreak-5e4005b14bfdba6eb2d339b188975410

[mu_enrico]

Yo @Juggy777, are you seriously citing "fake news" in Trump vs Biden discussion
Okay, seriously, the "Biden Gaffe" is pretty scary, and it's everywhere on Youtube.
And to think Trump is worse than a warmonger Bush jr. (who won 2nd term) is just irrational IMO, especially with Biden as the opponent.

[bbc.reporter]

@mu_enrico. You want real scary? How about this fake news hehehe. Every piece of information in this article were taken from Hunter Biden's laptop.



On Monday it was uncovered that VP Biden and his wife colluded to suppress Hunter’s actions with a certain minor.  On Tuesday we uncovered information showing how Hunter put his family at risk for Russian Blackmail after participating in seedy actions in West Hollywood with at least one Russian woman.   On Wednesday we reported that Hunter took pictures exposing himself in the presence of a minor.  This morning we reported that Hunter was accused of “Walking Around Naked Watching Porn Masturbating and Doing Drugs” in front of a minor.

This all is on top of accusations of Hunter being involved in the Vice President’s pay-for-play scandal around the world while the VP was in office.  No Hunter does not appear to be all the VP claimed he was.

A shocking piece of information in this squalid story is found on Hunter’s site.  The picture of the woman’s behind on his PornHub home page is that of a family member!

Source https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/huge-breaking-exclusive-hunter-biden-pornhub-account-uploaded-personal-porn-including-family-members/

[STT]

My perception of Trump is all bark no bite, somehow and I know its totally ironic he seems to have avoided war.   As I understand it Russia likes his general policy to retract troops from various advanced positions as they perceive this is a lesser threat to their interests and influence in various regions, its hard to call exactly but I dont remember much war occuring beyond this latest Armenia dispute perhaps and thats long term.

Biden was 100 to 1 at the start of this year as he struggled to gain nomination confidence, should have taken that one but not sure I saw it personally.      Lowest odds for Trump now is about 34% apparently but often much higher which is kinda surprising but he does retain the standing advantage of being the present command in chief.      I dont count either side as a strong candidate anyhow, I didnt last time either.

https://us.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/10/31/the-outlier-pollster-who-called-2016-for-trump-says-hell-win-again.cnn

[figmentofmyass]

I admit I've placed some bet on Trump.
The rationale is simple. He is the incumbent, and the only incumbent I remember lost was Bush vs Bill "I did not have sexual relations with that woman" Clinton. Bush was crap, and Clinton was superb.

This time though, Biden is also a crappy candidate. He is too old! C'mon man!

trump is so old, he opened the door wide open for biden.

i hear ya regarding the incumbent bit. i do think this year is quite different though, mainly because voters are so active in this election, as early turnout and mail balloting shows. high turnout is traditionally bad for republicans, and the jury is still out on whether republicans will truly show up in numbers on election day.

combined with unfavorable polling in battleground states for trump, he has maybe a 15-20% chance of winning in my eyes. since the betting markets are pricing him closer to 34%, i just don't see any value there.