US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[Vishnu.Reang]

I agree with the previous posts, but I am noticing some red flags for Biden.

1. Early voting was expected to give a huge advantage to Biden. But in most of the swing states, that hasn't happened. For example, as of 31st October, the difference in early voting as per party registration in Florida was just +116,051 for the Democrats. Back in 2016, the advantage in early elections was +90,111 for them. A small difference is there, but nothing like we expected. Same is the case with states such as AZ and NV.

Actually Democrats are behind in Nevada as per early voting data. Back in 2016, early voting as per registration was as following: Dem - 324,293, GOP - 278,668. Difference: +45,625. In 2020, respective figures are 395,873, 357,468 and +38,405.

2. Biden's blunder regarding fracking ban came at a time when just 22% of the votes in PA was cast. It will have a big impact there.

3. Even opinion polls are showing that the race is tightening in states such as AZ, FL, OH and IA.
 

[FinneysTrueVision]

https://us.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/10/31/the-outlier-pollster-who-called-2016-for-trump-says-hell-win-again.cnn

https://i.imgur.com/XUoxo8M.png

Looking through the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings it says that Trafalgar has an accuracy rate of 75% which isn't too bad but not enough to really be considered a high quality pollster. They only seem to do better than the traditional pollsters when an unexpected outcome favors a Republican in tight races. This seems like more of a fluke based on having a Republican bias rather than them doing anything special compared to everyone else.

[bryant.coleman]

Looking through the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings it says that Trafalgar has an accuracy rate of 75% which isn't too bad but not enough to really be considered a high quality pollster. They only seem to do better than the traditional pollsters when an unexpected outcome favors a Republican in tight races. This seems like more of a fluke based on having a Republican bias rather than them doing anything special compared to everyone else.

Well.. less than 24 hours left to know whether Trafalgar is accurate or not. Tomorrow at this time, the results will start coming in. The first set of result will be from these six states: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Out of these six, only Georgia is important. 30 minutes later, the counting will start in two crucial states - North Carolina and Ohio. West Virginia will also start counting at the same time. Results from Floroda and a few of the other states will come in from 5pm California time onwards.

[rdbase]

What would be the chances of all these happening being inalignment with the election results?


We won't know until friday with all the tallying to know who won right?

[ralle14]

What would be the chances of all these happening being inalignment with the election results?

That line seems similar to steve's multi magic, 4 legged with a slight boost in odds. 

Most of the odds are in favor of the Democratic party except for Florida which is sitting at +110 or 2.1. For me the chance of all four hitting is probably somewhere 10%-20%.

We won't know until friday with all the tallying to know who won right?

I think so, most likely we'll see the full results by Friday or Thursday.

[bryant.coleman]

What would be the chances of all these happening being inalignment with the election results?


We won't know until friday with all the tallying to know who won right?

Other states are OK. But Pennsylvania may take at least 2-3 weeks to count all the postal ballots. Many of the county officials have already said this. Florida has one of the best systems out there, and the counting should be very fast. Close to 100% of the ballots there may be counted by 4th morning. North Carolina officials are saying that around 97% of the votes will be counted by election day night. Now coming to the last state (Arizona), they have already started counting the postal ballots. However, there is a set of "late" absentee ballots, which may not be counted on election day night.

[asus09]

I don't care who are the winner in United State election between Donald Trump versus Joe Bidden because give most extremely impact for bitcoin and altcoin going down, almost each five years when United State election day make we have see bitcoin and altcoin in lower price, now become true bitcoin and altcoin going down before one day of election and give most impact after know who is the winner between Donald Trump and Joe Bidden, I was very surprised why bitcoin and other currency could dump with election in United State, basicly there are not have stronger bitcoin and altcoin community and US country is not friendly for bitcoin and altcoin as currency transaction but why could make bitcoin going down.

[Vishnu.Reang]

LOL.. today is the election day and the vast majority of the Americans have already cast their ballots. Some 98.8 million people have voted till now (the turnout for 2016 was 136.7 million). Projected turnout is 150 million, that means we may witness some 50 million people casting their votes today. In almost all the battle-ground states, majority of the ballots have been cast already. There are two exceptions - Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In these two states, the majority of the votes will be cast today, in person.

[yazher]

LOL.. today is the election day and the vast majority of the Americans have already cast their ballots. Some 98.8 million people have voted till now (the turnout for 2016 was 136.7 million). Projected turnout is 150 million, that means we may witness some 50 million people casting their votes today. In almost all the battle-ground states, majority of the ballots have been cast already. There are two exceptions - Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In these two states, the majority of the votes will be cast today, in person.

The result would likely go for Trump to win this election and one more thing about this election is the result might shown to us today but they already know who gonna win the election. If they have another Trump in the next 3 years, then their country will not gonna face some major issues as we've never seen before.

[mu_enrico]

@mu_enrico. You want real scary? How about this fake news hehehe. Every piece of information in this article were taken from Hunter Biden's laptop.

There are scandals from both sides, so I'm not really into it.
I only focus on how weak Biden is, about his dementia/gaffes and decades as a politician. Democrats could win this election by simply picking a more likable, smart, new, and energetic candidate, considering so many people hate Trump. I think the Dems made a blunder again, just like they did with Hillary.

"Fake news" always assume the early democrat vote is all for Biden, but who knows? I'm not really following US politics, though. I'm just comparing both candidates, apple to apple. Anyway, the world is cheering for Trump to win this election since he made so many memes 

[Vishnu.Reang]

@mu_enrico. You want real scary? How about this fake news hehehe. Every piece of information in this article were taken from Hunter Biden's laptop.

There are scandals from both sides, so I'm not really into it.
I only focus on how weak Biden is, about his dementia/gaffes and decades as a politician. Democrats could win this election by simply picking a more likable, smart, new, and energetic candidate, considering so many people hate Trump. I think the Dems made a blunder again, just like they did with Hillary.

"Fake news" always assume the early democrat vote is all for Biden, but who knows? I'm not really following US politics, though. I'm just comparing both candidates, apple to apple. Anyway, the world is cheering for Trump to win this election since he made so many memes 

Well.. that's what they did in 2016. They nominated a candidate, who is not electable. If they had anyone else as the Democrat nominee, then I doubt whether Donald Trump would have won states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. This time, they picked a moderate in Joe Biden. But still, Kamala Harris as the VP pick was a mistake in my opinion. She is too far to the left. They could have chosen someone who is younger and charismatic.

[STT]

most likely we'll see the full results by Friday or Thursday.

Legally perhaps but I presume much sooner then that and in theory one candidate is supposed to concede once clear for the good of democracy etc.
The result is more likely known sooner then later, the times we've not had a good idea whose won for day or weeks later has been a rarity.   Last time in 2016 it was an upset but it was also fairly clear early on, I might be missing the delay from posted votes this time perhaps but I think we'll have a good idea if Trump has any chance to repeat the college win over the popular.

Spotted this showing good calls happen fairly early:

I have to count this cycle as a good one for betting.   I bet mostly at the end when Biden odds were 2 to 1  and also I saw Trump at 2.75 to 1 and both probabilities cant be true at the same time which means its a net sum
positive bet and I win either way woot      Pretty sure I put down enough so Im leaning towards a Biden win but also so that I cant lose more then I gain from either outcome.     College, popular, polling and betting amounts all have varying sum to their probability of outcome, I think I took the best course considering.

[Oneandpure]

most likely we'll see the full results by Friday or Thursday.

Legally perhaps but I presume much sooner then that and in theory one candidate is supposed to concede once clear for the good of democracy etc.
The result is more likely known sooner then later, the times we've not had a good idea whose won for day or weeks later has been a rarity.   Last time in 2016 it was an upset but it was also fairly clear early on, I might be missing the delay from posted votes this time perhaps but I think we'll have a good idea if Trump has any chance to repeat the college win over the popular.

Spotted this showing good calls happen fairly early:

I have to count this cycle as a good one for betting.   I bet mostly at the end when Biden odds were 2 to 1  and also I saw Trump at 2.75 to 1 and both probabilities cant be true at the same time which means its a net sum
positive bet and I win either way woot      Pretty sure I put down enough so Im leaning towards a Biden win but also so that I cant lose more then I gain from either outcome.     College, popular, polling and betting amounts all have varying sum to their probability of outcome, I think I took the best course considering.

The wrong choice if you choose Joe Bidden as the winner in the United States presidential election, even though Donald Trump is a very controversial president but he has the ability, especially in the field of how to build diplomatic relations with other countries, one of the most controversial and favored by the people of the United States, namely Donald Trump hates China very much, in contrast to Joe Bidden who has good relations with China. Being a weak point for Joe Bidden if he gets support from China because of the economic trade conflict between the United States and China is a phenomenon that makes the people of the United States not very happy with China.

[hd49728]

The wrong choice if you choose Joe Bidden as the winner in the United States presidential election, even though Donald Trump is a very controversial president but he has the ability, especially in the field of how to build diplomatic relations with other countries, one of the most controversial and favored by the people of the United States, namely Donald Trump hates China very much, in contrast to Joe Bidden who has good relations with China. Being a weak point for Joe Bidden if he gets support from China because of the economic trade conflict between the United States and China is a phenomenon that makes the people of the United States not very happy with China.

I think Trump did his work very impressive on many areas in his first 4 years from financial, labor to political areas. Exception is the pandemic and public health problems in the US. I am not a US citizen so I can not judge about his decision to cope with the pandemic in the nation. It looks in the nation, there are two sides, support and oppose him on the pandemic issue. It is the most serious problem he has in this President election.

I agree totally that only Trump is be able and will be able to fight with China, and prevent China to expand their territories and power too fast in next decade. Trump fights China on many area, army, economy, to academic areas.

As an observer, I think Trump would win the election but let's wait few days to see who will win. I wish the US citizen will vote the right President for them, for their need in next 4 years.

[tomahawk9]

Just caught a shift in the odds on Sportsbet.io: Earlier today, Biden @1.65--> now @1.55. Trump @2.20 ---> now @2.40

Last minute whales going all-in on Biden? or did the media just release some new poll results and they're favoring Biden? maybe new Florida polls are going live, idk...could also be a trap and bookies are just trying to get the noobs to put money on the main favorite, trying to offset all that money going to Trump 😂

[rdbase]

^^
I'd hold off on that one. Counting has concluded in New Hampshire and biden won in dixville notch but trump won in millsfield.
There has been 139 million people who voted in the previous election which was the record.
This one has had 100 million votes so far and still the entire day left for them to put in their ballots.

[RealMalatesta]

Knowing the winner on election night (or a day later) is not really a topic for anyone anyway. What we already know is "unofficial" results very quickly, when you get a result from few states that should be the important swing results, you get the idea, like do you really need to wait for California and New York to finish counting? We know who they voted for right? So at the end of the day we do get unofficial results very quickly and official one can come later on.

What the topic here that Trump is trying to make is the fact that if he wins, he wins and there is no story there, he could milk it even after he won (he complained about voter fraud after he won in 2016) but it is not a big deal. However if he loses, he will do everything in his power to make it look like he actually won but there was fraud that made him "look like he lost" instead of actually losing.

[uneng]

The wrong choice if you choose Joe Bidden as the winner in the United States presidential election, even though Donald Trump is a very controversial president but he has the ability, especially in the field of how to build diplomatic relations with other countries, one of the most controversial and favored by the people of the United States, namely Donald Trump hates China very much, in contrast to Joe Bidden who has good relations with China. Being a weak point for Joe Bidden if he gets support from China because of the economic trade conflict between the United States and China is a phenomenon that makes the people of the United States not very happy with China.

I think Trump did his work very impressive on many areas in his first 4 years from financial, labor to political areas. Exception is the pandemic and public health problems in the US. I am not a US citizen so I can not judge about his decision to cope with the pandemic in the nation. It looks in the nation, there are two sides, support and oppose him on the pandemic issue. It is the most serious problem he has in this President election.

I agree totally that only Trump is be able and will be able to fight with China, and prevent China to expand their territories and power too fast in next decade. Trump fights China on many area, army, economy, to academic areas.

As an observer, I think Trump would win the election but let's wait few days to see who will win. I wish the US citizen will vote the right President for them, for their need in next 4 years.

I expected more from Trump. A big part of his 2016 campaign was just propaganda, especially towards the wall, immigration control and about *draining the swamp*.
The establishment is still strong as are the lobbyists. And I have seen Trump running away from such questions when confronted with his 2016's speech. I don't see Trump the same way I did in 2016, for me he isn't a solution anymore, but just the system maintenance. However, it's not a reason or an excuse to endorse any democrat for presidency. If I were an U.S citizen I wouldn't get involved on this election as I don't pretend to get involved in my country's politics never more in my life.

At least with gambling, and especially crypto gambling, everyone can make some profit with these dirty politics and not only the liars who are the candidates and their lackeys.

[Fortify]

Early voting is showing a 66% to 33% weighting in Biden's favor. Any betters out there will surely be going for a Biden win and all indications show Trump is increasingly looking unlikely to win. He will try to cling on to power like a vulture, but hopefully there is enough votes to present a clear winner. I've watched the betting odds recently and they are really going against Trump the closer we get to the election day.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Well.. that's what they did in 2016. They nominated a candidate, who is not electable. If they had anyone else as the Democrat nominee, then I doubt whether Donald Trump would have won states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. This time, they picked a moderate in Joe Biden. But still, Kamala Harris as the VP pick was a mistake in my opinion. She is too far to the left. They could have chosen someone who is younger and charismatic.

I don't think Kamala has played too much of a factor in this election. She is a lot like Hillary in that she will take the position that is most politically convenient. When she was attorney general of California she was a strict law and order candidate but then she became senator and moved to the left. She does seem more popular than Pence though, who is as bland as you can get.