US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[STT]

As an observer, I think Trump would win the election but let's wait few days to see who will win.

Just caught a shift in the odds on Sportsbet.io: Earlier today, Biden @1.65--> now @1.55. Trump @2.20 ---> now @2.40

Last minute whales going all-in on Biden?

My general take on crypto bettors is they have some bias to the right or even to Trump himself and seem to rate Trump chances too high.   In a year when this many jobs have been put into jeopardy whoevers fault that might be, doesnt matter it very much makes the job up for grabs and at best Trump had 50% odds so I was surprised some place to see Biden rated so low.     Similarly some people have bias to Biden when they shouldnt to that extent, its still not certain but I'd blame the liberal media for feeding that bias.

[Timelord2067]

The Australian ABC is saying Biden has 190 college votes to Trumps 77 votes, but it's "too close to call" given the West Coast polls don't close for another three hours.



(The two compares are discussion Florida in the screen grab)

[bbc.reporter]

@Timelord2067. Data from the Associated Press is showing Biden is leading Trump 223 to 174. However, Trump is leading 7 states, including Nevada and Texas, among the 9 left without an official count.

This might be Trump winner.

[Timelord2067]

@Timelord2067. Data from the Associated Press is showing Biden is leading Trump 223 to 174. However, Trump is leading 7 states, including Nevada and Texas, among the 9 left without an official count.

This might be Trump winner.

Perhaps - I've just checked in again, it's looking at 4pm AEST (GMT +10) Biden 226 to Trump 175:  (not sure where the two count difference is unless it's a different State being counted i.e. 5 not 3)



Might be a few more hours before we know for certain.  The gap is definitely closing, but over-take ??

[NotATether]

Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina are all leading with Trump votes at the moment, and with large margins of 5 million votes. Odds on Sportsbet has dropped to 2.75 - 1.40 for Trump - Biden. That’s a huge change from 1.65 - 2.40 odds that were displayed yesterday. All of these states have half or less amounts of electoral votes than Florida, so it just became harder for Biden to win.

No swing states have flipped yet as far as I can tell.

[Timelord2067]

Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina are all leading with Trump votes at the moment, and with large margins of 5 million votes. Odds on Sportsbet has dropped to 2.75 - 1.40 for Trump - Biden. That’s a huge change from 1.65 - 2.40 odds that were displayed yesterday. All of these states have half or less amounts of electoral votes than Florida, so it just became harder for Biden to win.

No swing states have flipped yet as far as I can tell.

Might be a long night:  I don't know if it's called flipping, but Nebraska has (from what I can tell) a foot in each camp with one vote going to the Democrats.



The figures - Biden 227 to Trump 213 haven't changed in over an hour.  Not sure which states are still counting (east to west) so we may have to wait overnight.

Interesting that Trump's odds have tightened in the last six to eight hours.

[hd49728]

The figures - Biden 227 to Trump 213 haven't changed in over an hour.  Not sure which states are still counting (east to west) so we may have to wait overnight.

Interesting that Trump's odds have tightened in the last six to eight hours.

The temporary results show Trump wins the election but I don't know how many proportions of total votes are checked so far. If in swing states, the total left (unchecked) votes are not much, Trump will win. If the left votes are big, results are not yet to come. Although unknown proportions, Trump still leads good in swing states: Gergia, Wisconsin, Pensylvania, Michigan. Only North Carolina has small advantage for Trump. In Alaska, Trump takes a lead position too.

[Timelord2067]

The temporary results show Trump wins the election but I don't know how many proportions of total votes are checked so far. If in swing states, the total left (unchecked) votes are not much, Trump will win. If the left votes are big, results are not yet to come. Although unknown proportions, Trump still leads good in swing states: Gergia, Wisconsin, Pensylvania, Michigan. Only North Carolina has small advantage for Trump. In Alaska, Trump takes a lead position too.

Associated Press and Fox news have just given Arizona to Biden, so assuming Biden picks up Wisconsin and Michigan Trump won't win even if he picks up Pennsylvania. (and Georgia, South Carolina & Alaska)


And all counting has now finalised for the evening.

[casperBGD]

The figures - Biden 227 to Trump 213 haven't changed in over an hour.  Not sure which states are still counting (east to west) so we may have to wait overnight.

Interesting that Trump's odds have tightened in the last six to eight hours.

The temporary results show Trump wins the election but I don't know how many proportions of total votes are checked so far. If in swing states, the total left (unchecked) votes are not much, Trump will win. If the left votes are big, results are not yet to come. Although unknown proportions, Trump still leads good in swing states: Gergia, Wisconsin, Pensylvania, Michigan. Only North Carolina has small advantage for Trump. In Alaska, Trump takes a lead position too.

as it is as of now, it seems that Georgia will be a key state to watch, Trump leads in Pensylvania by a lot, and it is hard to expect that Michigan or Wisconsin will be overturned as well
nevertheless, Trump declared victory and accused Democrats of a fraud

[Timelord2067]

... and accused Democrats of a fraud

Trump did that before the election along with the US Postal Service and a plethora of other people, groups and organizations etc.

[casperBGD]

it is now 238 vs 213 with following still to come:


Nevada (6) - 50,25% Biden, 47,64% Trump
Wisconsin (10) - 47,44% Biden, 51,05% Trump
Michigan (16) - 45,14% Biden, 53,25% Trump
Pennsylvania (20) - 43,27% Biden, 55,74% Trump (75% percent counted)
North Carolina (15) - 48,69% Biden, 50,09% Trump - all counted
Georgia (16) - 48,03% Biden, 50,66% Trump - 99% counted
Alaska (3) - Trump has over 60%, but only 30% counted

seems that will be close, but Trump will win, Biden needs Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania - at least two overturned, with one Electoral vote from Nebraska crucial if Biden win Michigan and Wisconsin, to have 270
 
edit: big moment, with 89% votes counted, Biden just overturned Wisconsin to blue state, 49,3% to 49,0%, it is now just Michigan - where it is now 51,9% to 46,4% for Trump

[adamvp]

What a surprising turn of events! I went to sleep sure nothing can stop Trump's win.
And few hours later Biden seems to be decisive leader of  election race :

https://cryptowat.ch/charts/FTX:TRUMP2020-USD-FUTURE-PREDICTION-05NOV20

[rdbase]

What a surprising turn of events! I went to sleep sure nothing can stop Trump's win.
And few hours later Biden seems to be decisive leader of  election race

The odds have suddenly shifted in biden's favor it seems for now.
Looking at the bookies they have him @1.28x odds right now.

@Timelord2067. Data from the Associated Press is showing Biden is leading Trump 223 to 174. However, Trump is leading 7 states, including Nevada and Texas, among the 9 left without an official count.

This might be Trump winner.

Not according to the odds makers he is not. Biden seems to have won some states after the counting has concluded.

[bisdak40]

What a surprising turn of events! I went to sleep sure nothing can stop Trump's win.
And few hours later Biden seems to be decisive leader of  election race

So, the score at the moment is conclusive already on who will win? I bet for Trump at 1.45 odds just few hours ago not knowing that Biden already taken the lead.

Have not followed politics in the US, just bet for Trump  .

[Captain Corporate]

 Well if it is going to make any of you feel better, the "official" results will probably not be available until a month later or so, the reason is that some are counted a lot later than usual, like early voting not starting until election day type of stuff, but also there is a lot of laws that states certain order of counting the ballots which all comes down to at least this friday for ALL of them to be counted. On top of that it is obvious that if Biden wins Trump will use supreme court which he packed very recently and will try to get it back, even if Trump wins we may see some shenanigans and since he is the president until January, we are going to see a lot of idle moments.

 This is of course is just a guess, maybe in 12 hours everything will be known, it will probably be like that but it will be unofficial so your bets may not get credited. Everything is still in play right now, anyone could win, there is no guarantee over who is going to win, and that is why I think it is quite important to not feel happy or sad about your bets just yet.

[mu_enrico]

Wisconsin   5%   173,000   20,748   Biden
Georgia   6%   301,000   102,212   Trump
Michigan   6%   325,000   9,505   Biden
North C.   6%   348,000   76,712   Trump
Nevada   33%   589,000   7,647   Biden
Pennsylvania   36%   3,123,000   560,010   Trump
Alaska   55%   210,000   51,382   Trump

Source.
It looks like Biden is going to win this election... sad underdog bettors! Very close!
Well, it can flip both sides, but MSM said the late ballots are mainly democrats.

[adamvp]

According to https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/2020-election-winner Biden has 81% chances for win now!
Wow, trading on bets was as good occasion as shorting shitcoins

[tyz]

According to https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/2020-election-winner Biden has 81% chances for win now!
Wow, trading on bets was as good occasion as shorting shitcoins

The problem with these numbers is that it assumes that the majority of the postal votes go to Biden. Should that be more balanced, Trump could win the tight Nevada in addition to Pennsylvannia, Georgia and North Carolina (where he currently leads). That would be enough for him, then he can lose Wisconsin and Michigan to Biden.

[mu_enrico]

The problem with these numbers is that it assumes that the majority of the postal votes go to Biden. Should that be more balanced, Trump could win the tight Nevada in addition to Pennsylvannia, Georgia and North Carolina (where he currently leads). That would be enough for him, then he can lose Wisconsin and Michigan to Biden.

This scenario is unlikely to happen since Trump asked his supporter to go out and vote...
Except for Pennsylvania, other battlegrounds states are tight and could flip in an update.

Anyways, It seems Trump decides to bring the issues to court, and a possible recounting in Wisconsin. Not sure when we can get the official result.

[notblox1]

This crazy election situation may continue for a long time as we are all waiting for votes counting.
Whatever final result is my first impression is that all the polls showed very different image before elections, and in reality we have very much divided United States and I wouldn't be surprised if final decision will have to be in court.
It is interesting that betting is still possible.