US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[STT]

1.45 for Trump and after seeing the data is not a bet I'd take or be tempted by tbh.    Regardless of any idea of support I see the Trump story for a win as an underdog tale even now 4 years later and this is due to the nature of his support and how it has to overwhelm the largest blocks which are with Biden

The figures - Biden 227 to Trump 213 haven't changed in over an hour.  Not sure which states are still counting (east to west) so we may have to wait overnight.

Nevada I think is to shut until Thursday first mail delivery to resume counting then, so we could be talking a Friday conclusive result even unofficially.  It is an unusual course of counting all votes being taken in a variety of ways, not everyone agrees and seems lawyers will be busy.   From what I can see I've no reason to doubt the delayed type vote via mail will be included.   I don't know I would assume that is certain to aid Biden, I thought he got more of the early vote.    I think Trump has to get Arizona or its going to be too much of a stretch elsewhere.

Pennsylvania has 3 million votes counted with Trump ahead 12% but also another million votes via mail not counted, etc.

[FinneysTrueVision]

This crazy election situation may continue for a long time as we are all waiting for votes counting.
Whatever final result is my first impression is that all the polls showed very different image before elections, and in reality we have very much divided United States and I wouldn't be surprised if final decision will have to be in court.
It is interesting that betting is still possible.

The polls were off again but I don't think it has anything to do with shy Trump voters as some people were speculating. The biggest factor seems to be voter turnout which was at a historic level. That's something that can drastically change the outcome that we expected because it means there was a lot of people that were not being included in polls, which are mostly based on historic voting patterns.

[adamvp]

yeah, biggest loser of this election are pollsters
BTW Did you see that:


? Very puzzling...

[bbc.reporter]

This crazy election situation may continue for a long time as we are all waiting for votes counting.
Whatever final result is my first impression is that all the polls showed very different image before elections, and in reality we have very much divided United States and I wouldn't be surprised if final decision will have to be in court.
It is interesting that betting is still possible.

The result is very close. The Democrats have the coronavirus and the riots to thank for the defeat of Trump. It would be a landslide for Trump if none of the craziness of 2020 have ever occured.

Who is the source of the coronavirus? Biden bettors should thank also that hehehe.

Also, congratulations to Kamala Harris for becoming the first American lady president. Biden will be declared unfit in 2 years.

[bryant.coleman]

The result is very close. The Democrats have the coronavirus and the riots to thank for the defeat of Trump. It would be a landslide for Trump if none of the craziness of 2020 have ever occured.

Who is the source of the coronavirus? Biden bettors should thank also that hehehe.

Also, congratulations to Kamala Harris for becoming the first American lady president. Biden will be declared unfit in 2 years.

Biden (if he wins) will be extremely thankful to the media. Without them, he could have never won states such as Wisconsin. If you remember, a fake poll from NBC had Biden leading by 17 points two days before the election day. Many of the Republican voters thought that Trump was going to lose by a huge margin and they abstained from voting. The same happened in other states such as Michigan and Nevada as well.

[Juggy777]

This crazy election situation may continue for a long time as we are all waiting for votes counting.
Whatever final result is my first impression is that all the polls showed very different image before elections, and in reality we have very much divided United States and I wouldn't be surprised if final decision will have to be in court.
It is interesting that betting is still possible.

@notblox1 Trump’s legal team has already moved to the state courts in few states, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to challenge the results in other states too.

Furthermore this is the first step from Trump’s legal team, because there’s no way to approach the Supreme Court directly, but they can always challenge the outcome of the state courts decision in the Supreme Court, and lastly I’m pretty sure that Amy (newest Supreme Court Jude) will swing the decision in Trump’s favour.

Sources:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/trump-supreme-court-state-courts-434096

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/barrett-recuse-election-supreme-court-scotus-election-fact-check-2020-can-amy-coney-barrett-recuse-the-election/65-9c4bc1e4-8f5b-4007-8d8d-47b169d1a517

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-amy-coney-barrett-confirmation-election-senator-chris-coons/

[hd49728]

Biden (if he wins) will be extremely thankful to the media. Without them, he could have never won states such as Wisconsin. If you remember, a fake poll from NBC had Biden leading by 17 points two days before the election day. Many of the Republican voters thought that Trump was going to lose by a huge margin and they abstained from voting. The same happened in other states such as Michigan and Nevada as well.

Even Biden wins the election, the final vote results in all US only show the distorted surveys and news before the election. No easy win for Biden. You are right.
How about these news? All of these make me believe that Trump accusations on faked news are right (not all certainly). I don't think Trump can make a flip and win the election but these news make me surprised, really surprised.

Is the second site is official site of Michigan state government? I am not living in the US so I don't know. Its table is different than theguardian's table.

Can anyone confirm about the mielections.us, please. What is this?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat
https://mielections.us/election/results/2020GEN_CENR.html

[bisdak40]

Nevada will be the critical state here and i think, whoever will win in Nevada would become the President.

Does Trump still has a chance here?

[hd49728]

Nevada is important but Arizona is more important for two candidates. Will Trump make very late flip and take over Arizona from Biden? The chance for late flip is low but latest vote counting results shed a light for Trump.

If finally Trump takes it from Biden, Nevada will be not enough to help Biden win the election.

Michigan I am not sure what is happening in Michigan but most of media gave it to Biden. Let's wait till tomorrow.

[STT]

Arizona was key and its likely not come through or able to reverse towards Trump at this point.   Similarly vital results in other swing states did not occur to give a majority looks like.   A relatively close election but I'd agree its almost certainly with Biden right now and I think about 24hr from now it will be absolutely certain.   That just leaves legal appeals etc.  but I dont give that much credence to that avenue

[jostorres]

Arizona is a weird state when it comes to electing a president, or the change they had. This is the state they gave USA Mccain which was a true blooded American that really represented a huge part of conservative world, and Arizona loved him and everything about Arizona was republican for a very very long time.

After he was gone, this state moved to legalize weed, moved to elect democrat house, democrat senator, and democrat president all in one election. We still don't know if Trump has any chance at all because normally I would give Arizona to Trump if I didn't know the situation, but looking at how things turned out, I say it is quite possible that Biden could pull an upset in there as well. This is going to come down to wire in the end but things are looking gloomy for both parties if you ask me, neither should be happy with the results no matter what the results are.

[BTCappu]

There won't be any official results for a long long time, especially considering Trump is arming up judges and courts to file constantly non-stop for every single result, there will be even longer results coming in way later as well. Normally it takes either the same day to about a week later to have a proper answer from state to state (even district to district) but at the end of the day there is really no way to know for sure the exact official result for like at least 2 weeks. Put the courts and judges all giving recounts and official auditing and so forth that makes it postpone even further, I think we are going to have a "winner" by tonight most likely but it is not going to be official at all. And since it will not be official, bets can't be credited right away, it is going to take a while to credit people their winnings until official results come in.

[royalfestus]

The news media are more careful than 2016 with those misleading news. The agitation is high both in USA and other part of the world, no one can tell at the moment where it will end. The internet is very active but the reliable information will come by Friday, earliest. Trump is prepared for court intervention if the result goes against him. Biden seems to be leading with 40 points according to telegraph and no one rules out possible swing before tomorrow

[bbc.reporter]

The result is very close. The Democrats have the coronavirus and the riots to thank for the defeat of Trump. It would be a landslide for Trump if none of the craziness of 2020 have ever occured.

Who is the source of the coronavirus? Biden bettors should thank also that hehehe.

Also, congratulations to Kamala Harris for becoming the first American lady president. Biden will be declared unfit in 2 years.

Biden (if he wins) will be extremely thankful to the media. Without them, he could have never won states such as Wisconsin. If you remember, a fake poll from NBC had Biden leading by 17 points two days before the election day. Many of the Republican voters thought that Trump was going to lose by a huge margin and they abstained from voting. The same happened in other states such as Michigan and Nevada as well.

It is called trending a candidate. It is an old campaign trick to discourage voters on a certain candidate. It can also make some people change their votes on the final second hehe. This was why I have always said that no vote is certain until a voter is inside the booth.

[bryant.coleman]

Those who gambled in favor of Biden may not get any of their money immediately. Until the results are certified, the gambling sites are not going to process the rewards. It may take a month or longer than that to confirm Biden's victory, given the huge number of legal challenges initiated by Trump. However, trends indicate that Biden may win PA by a comfortable margin and probably GA as well. Media may call this election for Biden today.

[hd49728]

Biden has huge chances to win the election. If Trump mades a flip and win the election, I will be shocked. Nevertheless, from the big difference of predictions from pollsters and the real election results, I see big support for Trump. The pandemic can has some negative result for him in this election and can play its part for his failure but not make his support falls too much.

If Trump will join the next President election in 2024, I can bet a very interesting race for him. More interesting if Biden decides to join it too. In 2024, Biden will be at his 82 and Trump at 78. 

[FinneysTrueVision]

https://i.imgur.com/64P3fUY.jpg

Nevada will be the critical state here and i think, whoever will win in Nevada would become the President.

Does Trump still has a chance here?

Biden increased his lead there today and most of the remaining votes are in a Democratic county and they're mail-in ballots which tend to be even more favorable to Dems. It's unlikely that Trump can win it but Biden can still afford to lose this state because he still gets to 270 if gets Pennsylvania where he is on pace to win by a few thousand votes.

Trump needs to slightly improve his winning margins in what remains in Arizona. Right now it appears that Biden will take a tiny lead in Georgia but there are still provisional and military ballots out there that could be the deciding factor.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Biden has huge chances to win the election. If Trump mades a flip and win the election, I will be shocked. Nevertheless, from the big difference of predictions from pollsters and the real election results, I see big support for Trump. The pandemic can has some negative result for him in this election and can play its part for his failure but not make his support falls too much.

If Trump will join the next President election in 2024, I can bet a very interesting race for him. More interesting if Biden decides to join it too. In 2024, Biden will be at his 82 and Trump at 78. 

LOL.. Trump has already stated that he won't be in race for 2024. Anyway, he'll be too old by then. Actually I don't expect Trump to remain active in politics, in case he loses. He may retire from politics and go back to his primary profession (business). But things can change. In case Biden is replaced by Kamala Harris within the first few months, then I think Trump may make a comeback.

[abhiseshakana]

Biden increased his lead there today and most of the remaining votes are in a Democratic county and they're mail-in ballots which tend to be even more favorable to Dems. It's unlikely that Trump can win it but Biden can still afford to lose this state because he still gets to 270 if gets Pennsylvania where he is on pace to win by a few thousand votes.

Trump needs to slightly improve his winning margins in what remains in Arizona. Right now it appears that Biden will take a tiny lead in Georgia but there are still provisional and military ballots out there that could be the deciding factor.

The race is still ongoing. Although the remaining states are more favorable for democratic camps, so far Trump is still leading narrowly in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.

To win this election, Trump must be able to take Pennsylvania, and any three of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. Even though it looks difficult for Trump, but as long as the vote count has not reached the final, anything can still happen.

On the other hand, Biden has more paths to win this battle, at least he only needs to take Pennsylvania or win any two of Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona.

[hd49728]

LOL.. Trump has already stated that he won't be in race for 2024. Anyway, he'll be too old by then. Actually I don't expect Trump to remain active in politics, in case he loses. He may retire from politics and go back to his primary profession (business). But things can change. In case Biden is replaced by Kamala Harris within the first few months, then I think Trump may make a comeback.

He will be at the age of Biden now (78) in 2024 Election, not older than Biden in this campaign.

The race is still ongoing. Although the remaining states are more favorable for democratic camps, so far Trump is still leading narrowly in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.

To win this election, Trump must be able to take Pennsylvania, and any three of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. Even though it looks difficult for Trump, but as long as the vote count has not reached the final, anything can still happen.

On the other hand, Biden has more paths to win this battle, at least he only needs to take Pennsylvania or win any two of Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona.

Georgia is very tight with less than 2000 votes for Biden to beat Trump. I think Trump can win North Carolina but will he can come back with Arizona? And will he keep his leading position in Pensylvania? Biden can win Nevada.

This election is more tight than the election 2016: Trump vs Hillary.