US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets

[Sithara007]

Biden's lead has only continued to improve in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. There is no chance this thing gets overturned.

Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania are pretty much thin, and if recounts happen, theoretically, it could flip.
Let's see how the legal battle goes, as Trump's camp said they would make lawsuits on Monday (today).

Arizona may flip even before the recount. Biden's lead has been reduced to around 16,000 with around 100,000 votes yet to be counted. Margin in Wisconsin is only 20,000 and there was at least one instance being reported where the Republican votes were tabulated on the Democrat column as a result of a software glitch. I would just say one thing. This election is not yet over, whatever Biden, Kamala and the Democrats have to say.

[1715331986]

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[1715331986]

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[1715331986]

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[hd49728]

Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania are pretty much thin, and if recounts happen, theoretically, it could flip.
Let's see how the legal battle goes, as Trump's camp said they would make lawsuits on Monday (today).

Yeah. Thin difference in many battleground states but it won't help Trump to win those states with vote recounts. Usually vote recounts don't bring big difference than original vote counts.

We nevertheless in the strange and weird Election (pandemic, huge vote by mails) and it is why Trump and his team hope that something can happen from vote recounts. If there are cheats behind the scene, Trump can make flips and win in some states. Again, it is his hope and we don't know what happened before the final vote counting results (this time) and vote recount (if happens).

Arizona can end with a win for Trump if the trend continues.

[Vishnu.Reang]

A few months back, the betting markets were giving better odds to Trump when compared to Biden, but the pandemic changed everything. Even now, the margins are so thin, and I believe that Trump would have won if the pandemic was not there. Anyway, I thought about making a bet in favor of Biden back then, but never had the courage to do so. Now I regret about my decision.

[tomahawk9]

So, i heard that some of the big bookies like Betway, Betfair, Bovada are holding out the payouts until the official results are out, this thing could take a few months with all the lawsuits and claims of vote fraud from Trump...But then you have sites like Bet365, Sportsbet.io and Unibet settling presidential election bets 🤔

What do u guys think, should bookies follow the concensus from the US mainstream media and payout? or do you think they should wait months for the inevitable results (Biden win) and then grade the bets? (i say inevitable cos i don't think Trump will win, just my opinion)

[Debonaire217]

A few months back, the betting markets were giving better odds to Trump when compared to Biden, but the pandemic changed everything. Even now, the margins are so thin, and I believe that Trump would have won if the pandemic was not there. Anyway, I thought about making a bet in favor of Biden back then, but never had the courage to do so. Now I regret about my decision.

No doubt, most of the cryptocurrency enthusiasts believed in Trumps influence to make cryptocurrency more widely adopted. It is just that, Trump also fought really well and did his best. If we think we lost allot, I couldn't think how much Trump has lost for the entire duration of the campaign, from social media campaign and more.

The lesson here is that, unexpected outcomes could still happen. We should be prepared no matter what the outcome is, and always risk any amount that we afford to lose. I'm really sure Trump will win but look at what happened. Still lucky that I didn't bet any amount in politics betting.

[adamvp]

I don't think Trump had anything in common with crypto - I know there was one pro-crypto guy considered to have postition in his administration, but he was eventually denied.

Do you know this: https://cryptowat.ch/charts/FTX:TRUMP2020-USD-FUTURE-PREDICTION was closed or it is just lack of activity?

[Karartma1]

I would love to see Trump winning his lawsuits and become president again only to see all those bet results crumble as clearly the way one can bet on events like that must be rethought. Can't wait for it, that would be hilarious!

[Vishnu.Reang]

No doubt, most of the cryptocurrency enthusiasts believed in Trumps influence to make cryptocurrency more widely adopted. It is just that, Trump also fought really well and did his best. If we think we lost allot, I couldn't think how much Trump has lost for the entire duration of the campaign, from social media campaign and more.

The lesson here is that, unexpected outcomes could still happen. We should be prepared no matter what the outcome is, and always risk any amount that we afford to lose. I'm really sure Trump will win but look at what happened. Still lucky that I didn't bet any amount in politics betting.

Anyway, it was the right decision. The election was too close, and who knows what might have happened if Trump would have managed to get a few tens of thousands of votes more. Because the margins were so narrow. Biden won by less than 10,000 votes in Georgia and 20,000 votes in Wisconsin. Other states such as Nevada and Pennsylvania were also really close. It might have gone either way.

[figmentofmyass]

Biden's lead has only continued to improve in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. There is no chance this thing gets overturned.

Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania are pretty much thin, and if recounts happen, theoretically, it could flip.
Let's see how the legal battle goes, as Trump's camp said they would make lawsuits on Monday (today).

trump supporters are still giving us great odds to bet on biden because they don't understand just how unlikely a reversal via recount is. do the math:

based on historical data alone, the chances of the election results being overturned based on a recount is somewhere in the realm of ~0.05%---probably even lower actually since the turnout was high. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/07/joe-biden-donald-trump-us-election-lawsuits-recount-supreme-court

Between 2000 and 2019, there were 5,778 statewide elections and 31 statewide recounts, according to FairVote, a voting reform group. Three of those recounts resulted in a reversal of the results. FairVote found that margin shifts are usually smaller in recounts with a high number of votes cast and presidential elections usually have the highest turnout.

that 0.05% probability is the chances of overturning the results in one state election. trump needs to have the results overturned in multiple states! and we're talking about a high turnout election.

the supreme court route is a dead end too. they have zero interest in interfering with multiple state elections. in spite of the claims trump is making, they want to distance themselves as much as possible from politics. there is only one election case at the supreme court level---the pennsylvania case re ballots that came in after the election---and it's not gonna change the results even if republicans get those ballots thrown out. and if trump wants to pursue any other election challenges, he needs to bring them through the lower courts first, and then they need to progress to the supreme court and be heard there before the election results are certified next month. fat chance!

1.06 on biden is basically a sure bet.

[rdbase]

I don't think Trump had anything in common with crypto - I know there was one pro-crypto guy considered to have postition in his administration, but he was eventually denied.

Do you know this: https://cryptowat.ch/charts/FTX:TRUMP2020-USD-FUTURE-PREDICTION was closed or it is just lack of activity?

Trump has defiantly said in a twitter post that he does not believe in cryptocurrency and has called it an outright scam or conjob if you own it.
I'll have to find the tweet. They ran it on a media show I was watching earlier.
Yet Biden has someone who is pro crypto/blockchain technology.
So you can be the judge of which one would be better for bitcoin in the oval office.

I would love to see Trump winning his lawsuits and become president again only to see all those bet results crumble as clearly the way one can bet on events like that must be rethought. Can't wait for it, that would be hilarious!

There are other markets, as one site has put it, "side bets" still available of when and if he will concede the presidency.
Also will he be ousted out of the white house before the jets win a game or the steelers losing one.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/politics/when-will-trump-concede-odds-after-ny-jets-win-game
What you can bet on is endless in this election.

But one other sportsbook odds provider has made the final result in biden's favor and declared him president since November 7th 11pm.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/politics/2020-us-presidential-election-odds
You can see the timeline of events since trump has been in the white til now.
There was even a bet available on impeachment available at the beginnning of the year.
Quite hilarious to read everything that has happened to this guy with being the one-in one-off president in office.
A film about this would be a proper way to make an exit out of the white house is all that is left to do for him.
https://www.indiewire.com/2020/11/john-oliver-trump-presidency-house-of-cards-1234597592

[FinneysTrueVision]

Biden's lead has only continued to improve in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. There is no chance this thing gets overturned.

Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania are pretty much thin, and if recounts happen, theoretically, it could flip.
Let's see how the legal battle goes, as Trump's camp said they would make lawsuits on Monday (today).

Arizona may flip even before the recount. Biden's lead has been reduced to around 16,000 with around 100,000 votes yet to be counted. Margin in Wisconsin is only 20,000 and there was at least one instance being reported where the Republican votes were tabulated on the Democrat column as a result of a software glitch. I would just say one thing. This election is not yet over, whatever Biden, Kamala and the Democrats have to say.

There are only about 25k ballots that will for sure be counted and then about 40k provisionals which may or may not be counted. It doesn't look like there will be enough for Trump to flip it. He will lose the state by a few thousand votes.

We hear about software glitches every election year. It doesn't occur at a big enough scale to overturn an election.

In 2016 they did a recount in several midwestern states and it only changed the outcome by a few hundred points. They found that software glitches and other issues affect both sides and they end up canceling each other out for the most part.

[hd49728]

I would love to see Trump winning his lawsuits and become president again only to see all those bet results crumble as clearly the way one can bet on events like that must be rethought. Can't wait for it, that would be hilarious!

Social media, newspapers, FDA are all in their battles with Trump. 5 days later the unofficial announcement that Biden won the election and became elected President, FDA and Pfizer and BioNTech announced very positive results from vaccine. Is it a coincidence? I don't think it is a coincidence. They planned to fight with Trump and tried to put him down.

Trump and his team will submit their lawsuits but I don't see lights for them to win at the end. Even if they will win only one battleground state after vote recount, it will be interesting enough.

Monday, November 09, 2020 - 06:45am
Vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first interim efficacy analysis

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

[proTECH77]

The election results has been announced for the favour of Joe Biden who is the candidate of Democratic party that pulled 285 vote to defeat his incumbent Donald Trump who pulled 214 vote. Donald Trump still in white house waiting for the favour of court to declare him winner. It will hard Trump to win the case in court because US citizens really vote massively to Joe Biden to become their president.
Joe Biden will still will this court suit file by Trump claiming the election was not free and fair in November 3.

[bryant.coleman]

There are only about 25k ballots that will for sure be counted and then about 40k provisionals which may or may not be counted. It doesn't look like there will be enough for Trump to flip it. He will lose the state by a few thousand votes.

We hear about software glitches every election year. It doesn't occur at a big enough scale to overturn an election.

In 2016 they did a recount in several midwestern states and it only changed the outcome by a few hundred points. They found that software glitches and other issues affect both sides and they end up canceling each other out for the most part.

Trump is trailing by 14,746 votes and as per the latest data 77,000 ballots remain to be counted. The bad news for Trump is that a large section of these ballots are from Pima county, which is very blue leaning (I would assume most of the remaining ballots are from the city of Tucson). It is going to be very tough for Trump to win the state, but it is clear that the early call being made by Fox News was horribly wrong.

But here is the catch: provisional ballots are skewing heavily towards Trump. Among the 2400 or so provisional ballots accepted so far, Trump won 1,658 and Biden got 688. Data: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0

[royalfestus]

The election results has been announced for the favour of Joe Biden who is the candidate of Democratic party that pulled 285 vote to defeat his incumbent Donald Trump who pulled 214 vote. Donald Trump still in white house waiting for the favour of court to declare him winner. It will hard Trump to win the case in court because US citizens really vote massively to Joe Biden to become their president.
Joe Biden will still will this court suit file by Trump claiming the election was not free and fair in November 3.

Have you seen his Trump's instagram handle? it is fueling a lot of news that can generate populace protest and reaction. people say no evidence but I dont know what to think with numerous posts, I dont even know when all the video are put together after the election. Conspiracy theories are difficult to avoid and believe, is this really happening in the US?

[Vishnu.Reang]

There is still a lot of confusion regarding the Arizona results and also there are rumors that Wisconsin results were incorrectly tabulated. It has been more than 6 days since the election day, and we still don't know who won the elections with 100% surety. Maybe once everything is settled, the authorities need to do a self-introspection and see why they became such a laughing stock during the counting phase.

[Karartma1]

I would love to see Trump winning his lawsuits and become president again only to see all those bet results crumble as clearly the way one can bet on events like that must be rethought. Can't wait for it, that would be hilarious!

There are other markets, as one site has put it, "side bets" still available of when and if he will concede the presidency.
Also will he be ousted out of the white house before the jets win a game or the steelers losing one.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/politics/when-will-trump-concede-odds-after-ny-jets-win-game
What you can bet on is endless in this election.

But one other sportsbook odds provider has made the final result in biden's favor and declared him president since November 7th 11pm.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/politics/2020-us-presidential-election-odds
You can see the timeline of events since trump has been in the white til now.
There was even a bet available on impeachment available at the beginnning of the year.
Quite hilarious to read everything that has happened to this guy with being the one-in one-off president in office.
A film about this would be a proper way to make an exit out of the white house is all that is left to do for him.
https://www.indiewire.com/2020/11/john-oliver-trump-presidency-house-of-cards-1234597592

This is funny! Like the old telenovelas, the Trump Biden election 2020 will entertain the public for some more time while some can still bet on very strange happenings! Still, my previous thought remains: it would be fantastic for the result to change in Trump's favour just for the sake of the craziness that could create.

[figmentofmyass]

the attorney general is launching an investigation into possible election fraud: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54882647

it looks like he is just pandering to trump. even fox news is shying away from covering the allegations coming from republicans because nobody can offer any evidence to support them.

nevertheless, trump's odds are up to 9% on betfair. where can i still bet against trump, with bitcoin?

[STT]

My bets haven't settled but I'll close this thread for now to stop it becoming political during these legal contests.   If we could still bet either way for a candidate at some site that'd be interesting but I've not yet seen that.

The polls as usual were really not close to showing the balance of the race and how close it could have been fairly easily with a win for either candidate, not a landslide despite how the final count appears in the college.

Video I saw seems to state as little as 45k votes switching would have done it:   Anyhow it was more interesting then many elections Ive seen, not sure we'll be as lucky again in that respect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4go51IeErQ

Trump has defiantly said in a twitter post that he does not believe in cryptocurrency and has called it an outright scam or conjob if you own it.

That was my impression also and possibly some bearish action was forthcoming start of this year but luckily that got derailed by events.