[Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2021

[tyKiwanuka]

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Eurovision_Song_Contest_2021.svg

You can never be too early when it comes to the Eurovision Song Contest and Albania was the first country to announce/publish their entry some days ago, so time for a 2021 thread. There can be found great value in the early stages, but you can also be dead wrong. The 2020 edition was cancelled for known reasons, it looks like the 2021 edition will take place no matter what, since all artists will (have to) video tape their performance and if they are not able to travel to Rotterdam, this video will be shown. There are some other special rules for this one, but shouldn't matter for the outcome. It is allowed to have the same artist as planned for 2020, but not the same song. 22 countries chose to do so, which is about 50%.

This years Eurovision Song Contest will be held from 18th to 22nd May in the Ahoy-Arena in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

The Dates

18th May 2021: Semifinal 1
20th May 2021: Semifinal 2
22nd May 2021: The Final

A total of 41 countries will participate this year. Bulgaria and Ukraine will come back for this years edition, while Montenegro and Hungary won't participate this year.

Semifinal 1

Country	Artist	Song	Youtube
________________________	________________________	________________________	________________________
Australia	Montaigne	Technicolour	Click me
Belarus	DSQ	DSQ
Ireland	Lesley Roy	Maps	Click me
Lithuania	The Roop	Discoteque	Click me
North Macedonia	Vasil	Here I stand	Click me
Russia	Manizha	Russian Woman	Click me
Slovenia	Ana Soklič	Amen	Click me
Sweden	Tusse	Voices	Click me
Azerbaijan	Samira Efendi	Mata Hari	Click me
Belgium	Hooverphonic	The Wrong Place	Click me
Croatia	Albina	Tick-Tock	Click me
Cyprus	Elena Tsagrinou	El diablo	Click me
Israel	Eden Alene	Set me Free	Click me
Malta	Destiny Chukunyere	Je Me Casse	Click me
Norway	TIX	Fallen Angel	Click me
Romania	Roxen	Amnesia	Click me
Ukraine	Go_A	Shum	Click me

Semifinal 2

Country	Artist	Song	Youtube
________________________	________________________	________________________	________________________
Austria	Vincent Bueno	Amen	Click me
Czech Republic	Benny Cristo	Omaga	Click me
Estonia	Uku Suviste	The Lucky One	Click me
Greece	Stefania	Last Dance	Click me
Iceland	Daði og Gagnamagnið	10 Years	Click me
Moldova	Natalia Gordienko	Sugar	Click me
Poland	RAFAŁ	The Ride	Click me
San Marino	Senhit	Adrenalina	Click me
Serbia	Hurricane	Loco Loco	Click me
Albania	Anxhela Peristeri	Karma	Click me
Armenia	Will not participate	Will not participate
Bulgaria	Victoria	Growing Up is Getting Old	Click me
Denmark	Fyr & Flamme	Øve os på hinanden	Click me
Finland	Blind Channel	Dark Side	Click me
Georgia	Tornike Kipiani	You	Click me
Latvia	Samanta Tina	The Moon is Rising	Click me
Portugal	The Black Mamba	Love Is on My Side	Click me
Switzerland	Gjon's Tears	Tout l’Univers	Click me

The Final

France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK are seeded for the final as the Big Five, Netherlands as hosts.

Country	Artist	Song	Youtube
________________________	________________________	________________________	________________________
France	Barbara Pravi	Voilà	Click me
Germany	Jendrik	I Don't Feel Hate	Click me
Italy	Måneskin	Zitti e buoni	Click me
Netherlands	Jeangu Macrooy	Birth Of A New Age	Click me
Spain	Blas Canto	Voy a quedarme	Click me
United Kingdom	James Newman	Embers	Click me

Betting Odds

Will add a screenshot later, for now there is just a tiny market at Betfair.


Last years thread was very nice with lots of good discussions and posts. Hope to see some familiar faces in this thread, but fresh faces are welcome as well of course. Happy discussing and good luck with your bets

I made this thread self-moderated. I don't plan to delete a lot of posts, but rather let a fruitful discussion unfold. If it gets too spammy, I will delete posts though. So just stay on topic, share your thoughts, discuss the entries and don't spam useless stuff.

[swogerino]

I happen to live in Albania for work from sometime now and let me tell you that the winner of the National Song Festival here won the title in an unorthodox way(I cannot say more but all the capital talks of her having an affair with some high profile member organizer of the event) and based on this let me say she is not going to win anything in Eurovision and she will be eliminated in the first night.I agree with what people are talking here as all are sharing the same idea.

[LTU_btc]

So, almost half countries will send same people as they had in 2020. I don't like Lithuania decision not to send The Roop to Eurovision 2021. Though, I perfectly understand reasons why. They want to have big TV ratings on national selection and get some money from votes. But probably this year they won't be able to held national selection final in sold out arena with 15k people. Well, at least The Roop agreed to participate in national selection.
I'm a bit surprised that Russia won't send Little Big, considering that they were contenders to win. Almost every their new song and clip become viral on Youtube, so I think they would be serious contenders again.
And it's not fully correct to say that Ukraine returns, because they already had to participate in 2020 with this song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNetXPSld50&list=RDzNetXPSld50, though they didn't participate in 2019.

[tyKiwanuka]

And it's not fully correct to say that Ukraine returns, because they already had to participate in 2020 with this song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNetXPSld50&list=RDzNetXPSld50, though they didn't participate in 2019.

Yes, this is still the information from the 2020 thread and I left it there, since technically it's correct imo. Officially there was no contest in 2020, so they give their comeback after having missed one edition (the 2019 one). But this is splitting hairs and probably not that important in the end Just a side note^^

Good to see you around in this thread @LTU_btc. Pretty bad luck for The Roop. It's not easy to produce a winning song for the ESC, especially not for a small country like Lithuania with few diaspora. Keeping my fingers crossed for them to be kissed by the muse this year as well

[alegotardo]

It's good to know that this forum isn't all about sports, a little culture is good for everyone... this is the first time that I have come across a topic about Eurovision.

I wish that here in Latin America we had a festival like Eurovision. Thankfully, we have Portugal in the same language as Brazil to follow and cheer.

As for the 2021 event, unfortunately, a recording will never have the same "quality" as a live performance, but the organization is right in that decision as it's better for the event to take place than to be postponed or canceled again. I hope everyone can participate live.

In Portugal the representatives still have to be chosen, I'm sure that good songs worthy of winning another title will be chosen as in 2017.

[LTU_btc]

Good to see you around in this thread @LTU_btc. Pretty bad luck for The Roop. It's not easy to produce a winning song for the ESC, especially not for a small country like Lithuania with few diaspora. Keeping my fingers crossed for them to be kissed by the muse this year as well

Yeah, it will be difficult to make another good song. Though, in recent years I noticed that quality of music increase in my country, there is enough groups or singers who easy get millions of views on Youtube, but most of them aren't interested to participate in ESC. Also, not everything fits to Eurovision.
When I will have time, I want to compare list of already confirmed participants and odds for last year Eurovision. I wouldn't be surprised if some countries which weren't ranked well by bookmakers decided not to send same participants in 2021 .

As for the 2021 event, unfortunately, a recording will never have the same "quality" as a live performance, but the organization is right in that decision as it's better for the event to take place than to be postponed or canceled again. I hope everyone can participate live.

Well, if event will be held without spectators, I don't think there will be big difference between live performance and pre-recorded song. After all, it won't be shown through Zoom or similar platform - pre-recorded songs will be filmed on TV studio of their own country, so I doubt that there will be such big difference from live performance.

[Saint-loup]

Another high quality thread this year! TY tyKiwanuka for centralizing all that stuff.
I'm glad to see that Azerbaijan will send back Efendi, Romania Roxen, and Spain Blas Canto  

When I will have time, I want to compare list of already confirmed participants and odds for last year Eurovision. I wouldn't be surprised if some countries which weren't ranked well by bookmakers decided not to send same participants in 2021 .

You can still find the "final" odds for ESC2020 there : https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision

[lebregone]

I am not aware that Betfair is hosting this kind of games, by the way aside from Betfair do you know other platforms that host this kind of games just in case
we want to bet for the winners of this Eurovision song contest.

I will just hope that the seeded to win will still get a good odds so we can try our luck by staking our bet to those five participants if it is possible to bet to
more than 1 participant to win the contest.

[fiulpro]

Using the same people is not something incomprehensible, it's the music industry we are talking about, they can be actually in the race for years. I do not think that Ukraine will have very good songs recently I was able to hear some of the local performances but over the years I must say that they quality have decreased, keeping aside the factor of the voice I do believe that the new songs have lost most meaning.
This would be really interesting to see progress here. I do think I will get on France if I had to.

I happen to live in Albania for work from sometime now and let me tell you that the winner of the National Song Festival here won the title in an unorthodox way(I cannot say more but all the capital talks of her having an affair with some high profile member organizer of the event) and based on this let me say she is not going to win anything in Eurovision and she will be eliminated in the first night.I agree with what people are talking here as all are sharing the same idea.

Same thing goes for many small nations so we can't bet on anything. The world is not fair anymore. These things have been becoming common since years and now corruption is everywhere..

[tyKiwanuka]

I am not aware that Betfair is hosting this kind of games, by the way aside from Betfair do you know other platforms that host this kind of games just in case
we want to bet for the winners of this Eurovision song contest.

The ESC is normally covered by "all" bookmakers, at least the winners market. In most bookies you will find Top3, Top10, H2H and other side markets additionally. Even Betfair will have these markets at a later point.

I will just hope that the seeded to win will still get a good odds so we can try our luck by staking our bet to those five participants if it is possible to bet to
more than 1 participant to win the contest.

Being seeded for the final doesn't say anything about your chances to win the ESC. It's just that you, as one of the big payers, don't have to through the semi-final qualification round. In fact the Big5 do very bad generally in ESC (because people don't necessarily like to see the big countries win). The last win from one of these countries was Germany in 2010, followed by UK in 1997. France last won in 1977, Italy in 1990 (they took a long break in the 90's and 00's) and Spain in 1969.


@Saint-loup
Thanks, and welcome to the 2021 thread, I was hoping you would show up here

[Saint-loup]

I am not aware that Betfair is hosting this kind of games, by the way aside from Betfair do you know other platforms that host this kind of games just in case
we want to bet for the winners of this Eurovision song contest.

It's a little bit early IMO because songs haven't been revealed yet, and most of top dog singers aren't known.
But you can already bet on the Melodifestivalen 2021 of Sweden (I see Ditto is in competition again this year   ... and the Mamas too lol ) or on San Remo 2021 contest at several bookmakers.

[tyKiwanuka]

France and Israel have made their selections:

Barbara Pravi - Voilà
Eden Alene - Set Me Free

The french entry is totally not mine, but maybe some people will like it. As we know non-english songs generally have a bit harder time, but at least "Voilá" is a word that everyone knows
Israel is a more modern pop song and kind of catchy, but in the end the typical ESC trash. Odds above 300 don't suggest this entry being able to make any noise, but you never know

If anyone finds the songs/videos of Greece/Cyprus, please post, but I don't think they have been published yet.


@LTU_btc

Is this the song from The Roop for this year ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWqrdzNoBKA

[LTU_btc]

@LTU_btc

Is this the song from The Roop for this year ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWqrdzNoBKA

Yes, this is their song for 2021. Now I'm not sure why do we need national selection when we already know winner of it. Maybe it's less catchy song than "On Fire" and I'm not sure can it be contender to win whole contest (I'm biased ), but The Roop managed to make another great song.
I watched some performances from our national selection and I can say it's waste of time and money in general.

[kryptqnick]

Eurovision is a popular contest in my country, so I tend to follow the top nominees and winners. It's not a secret that even though the contest is meant to apolitical, it's actually very political (and honestly, I don't think it's such a bad thing because they tend to support important things). So my preliminary guess is that Belarus will make it to the final round and is likely to win the contest if they take part in it (and if those taking part are not Lukashenko supporters) because of all the things that happened in Belarus in 2020. But of course, it's too early to say for now, and I'll be following the updates to see where this is going.

[LTU_btc]

So, Lithuania had decided  to send The Roop to Eurovision again. How unexpected . Here is their song for those who haven't saw it yet : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kcm-uZSslw.
They got 74 500 votes from people, while other 5 finalists got just 11 500 votes combined.

So my preliminary guess is that Belarus will make it to the final round and is likely to win the contest if they take part in it (and if those taking part are not Lukashenko supporters) because of all the things that happened in Belarus in 2020. But of course, it's too early to say for now, and I'll be following the updates to see where this is going.

I think Belarus have no chance to win. First, it's not allowed to bring political messages in songs and also, most people aren't paying much attention to things, which is going on in Belarus, so, I doubt that they are going to vote for Belarus. I predict that Belarus will get most points from neighbour countries like usual. And also, it's impossible that they will send someone who is against Lukashenko because participants is selected through state owned television.

[kryptqnick]

Ukraine announced their song, so perhaps the table should be updated. The song is called "Noise" ("Shum"). Here's a link to the song. And here's a link to the proof that this is the song from Ukraine. The song is very bizarre, but people seem to like it, and it combines both folk music and the visual part which reminds of the COVID-19 pandemic which might be beneficial.

I think Belarus have no chance to win. First, it's not allowed to bring political messages in songs and also, most people aren't paying much attention to things, which is going on in Belarus, so, I doubt that they are going to vote for Belarus.

Belarus might not participate this year due to political issues, but I still think they could easily win if they did and managed to make a song that is vaguely against the current regime. You're saying it's not allowed to bring political messages, and of course they cannot be mentioned explicitly. However, a political message matters a lot in the end. I remember well how in 2016 Ukraine won the Eurovision with a song about the deportation of Crimean Tatars that happened back in 1944. Even though the song was about the past, it was clearly associated with the fresh memories of Russia annexing Crimea and Tatars facing discrimination there once again.
Apart from this example, Netta won in 2018 with a clear feminist message of her song, and a few years before, Conchita Wurst won which raised awareness on homosexuality and openly being oneself.
Some years are just about nice melodies which are often about love or something like that, but other years have clear political winners. 2020 was a very tough year, so I think the song that wins is going to be about some political aspect. But of course, we'll know more closer to the date.

[tyKiwanuka]

I have added Lithuania/Ukraine to the list and Germany also announced their artist, whom I don't know, but not the song yet. Glad that The Roop get another chance this year, but as said the song isn't that good this time unfortunately. The ukrainian entry, well

Belarus might not participate this year due to political issues, but I still think they could easily win if they did and managed to make a song that is vaguely against the current regime.

I don't think Belarus stands a chance with "just" some political song, it takes a bit more to win the ESC. This competition always covered some social elements as you mentioned, but you have to have an above average entry as well - then some little extra message coming along with your song could put you on top, even when there are technically better entries. But, no offense to all people from Belarus, I don't think a lot of people are aware and/or interested what happens in Belarus and it wouldn't influence their vote that much.

And Belarus is doing pretty weak in ESC in general. They participated 16 times since 2004 and reached the final only 6 times. Of those 6 times they finished 5 times out of Top15 (24/16/16/17/24) and once took 6th place in 2007. It really needs a great song and stellar performance for them to win "easily" imo - political statement or not

[FatFork]

Croatian broadcaster HRT has chosen its entry into Eurovision 2021 with the unique show of its national selection, 'Dora'.
After all the votes of the jury and the public were counted, Albina won first place with the song "Tick-Tock" and she will represent Croatia at the ESC 2021 in Rotterdam.

Albina – Tick-Tock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CX9fBSTjUfk


EDIT: I've updated the post with the link to the official video.

[madnessteat]

~
I'm a bit surprised that Russia won't send Little Big, considering that they were contenders to win. Almost every their new song and clip become viral on Youtube, so I think they would be serious contenders again.
~

Looking at recent articles from various Russian-language sources, we can conclude that this moment is not yet determined and the band "Little Big" still has a chance to represent Russia at Eurovision 2021. I couldn't find any specific confirmation of this from Ilya Pruskin or other band members. I think we'll find out within the next month.  

[tyKiwanuka]

~snip~

Thanks, added her to the list. The song is really crap imo and even the performance was nothing special (to not say boring); sometimes you wonder how crappy the other entries in the national selections must have been The odds for Croatia have gone up accordingly.

North Macedonia and Moldova have revealed the name of their songs now, but I wasn't successful in actually finding them on Youtube, so I guess just the name was released. Which leads me to the question, where the point is in just releasing the name of a song. These artists are not some superstars, where the world is waiting impatiently for just the name of their song


Some bookies now have odds and it feels like these are influenced a lot by last years odds with some artists coming back after 2020 edition was cancelled:


Source: https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/tv-specials/international/eurovision-song-contest/2021-eurovision-song-contest/232206849/all-markets

Here you can find a screenshot of the odds in March last year. France is new among the favourites for now, the rest is more or less the same.

At this point you can really find super valuable odds, if you follow the national selections a bit, which is not always easy to do. But you can also be dead wrong, thats the risky part