[Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2021

[Saint-loup]

I watched all of them. I liked Manizha's song before and now with the performance, I think it's going to be really powerful, lift you up in a way. Malta definitely interesting, good song, nice beat to it. Serbia seemed dancy, something I personally like. Not sure about the rest, France, Bulgaria, Switzerland getting a lot of talks but they were honestly kinda boring to me. I prefer fun songs so maybe that's just me.

Yes Serbia has a pretty good song IMO but I liked their colored 80's fashion dress in their video clip, and now for their live performance they seem to be dressed all in black while dancing in front of a dark background(with 10kg more ). Where are the colors and the fun of their video? They want to look like opera singers now?
France is the favorite of the bookmakers at the moment but it's highly overvalued IMO, moreover people don't like to spend money to vote for obvious favorites usually.  

       

[Goodluckmate.com]

I watched all of them. I liked Manizha's song before and now with the performance, I think it's going to be really powerful, lift you up in a way. Malta definitely interesting, good song, nice beat to it. Serbia seemed dancy, something I personally like. Not sure about the rest, France, Bulgaria, Switzerland getting a lot of talks but they were honestly kinda boring to me. I prefer fun songs so maybe that's just me.

Yes Serbia has a pretty good song IMO but I liked their colored 80's fashion dress in their video clip, and now for their live performance they seem to be dressed all in black while dancing in front of a dark background(with 10kg more ). Where are the colors and the fun of their video? They want to look like opera singers now?
France is the favorite of the bookmakers at the moment but it's highly overvalued IMO, moreover people don't like to spend money to vote for obvious favorites usually.  

       

hahah agree 100%, why the drama when you can have all the fun! That's why Malta and Russia got my attention, their performances seemed so alive and colorful. But the song is cool anyway. And France I really don't know why it's a favorite because it's so slow and I don't really think that countries from the 'big 5' ever win except for Germany that one time ten years ago with Satellite (which was a cool, dancy song). I don't think France will win now would bet on it honestly. 

[Saint-loup]

hahah agree 100%, why the drama when you can have all the fun! That's why Malta and Russia got my attention, their performances seemed so alive and colorful. But the song is cool anyway. And France I really don't know why it's a favorite because it's so slow and I don't really think that countries from the 'big 5' ever win except for Germany that one time ten years ago with Satellite (which was a cool, dancy song). I don't think France will win now would bet on it honestly. 

Yes the song is cool and even bigger they are still cool and pretty, but they are not so funny dancing and dressed like that.


For France, the first reherseal of Barbara didn't convince me more, her show looks very austere I think.


Besides that Flo Rida was still not on stage for the 2nd rehearsal of Senhit

[FatFork]

I watched all of them. I liked Manizha's song before and now with the performance, I think it's going to be really powerful, lift you up in a way. Malta definitely interesting, good song, nice beat to it. Serbia seemed dancy, something I personally like. Not sure about the rest, France, Bulgaria, Switzerland getting a lot of talks but they were honestly kinda boring to me. I prefer fun songs so maybe that's just me.

Yes Serbia has a pretty good song IMO but I liked their colored 80's fashion dress in their video clip, and now for their live performance they seem to be dressed all in black while dancing in front of a dark background(with 10kg more ). Where are the colors and the fun of their video? They want to look like opera singers now?
France is the favorite of the bookmakers at the moment but it's highly overvalued IMO, moreover people don't like to spend money to vote for obvious favorites usually.  

Yup, Serbia has such a cheerful and upbeat song, but it's rather forgettable, in my opinion. And yes, it looks like they gained at least 10kg each compared to the official music video. 
I know it is not okay to comment on a woman's weight, but it's their choice to show so much skin, so...

Barbara's song "Voila" has that classic French flair (reminiscent of Edith Piaf's "Padam, Padam"). It was time for the French to send a decent song after a series (except for 2018) of bad songs and performances. After listening to all the songs, I felt she had potential (remember the Portuguese song from 2017? ), but I think that this year, considering the overall situation with the Coronavirus pandemic, we need something more optimistic, more cheerful.

[Cryptmuster]

Yup, Serbia has such a cheerful and upbeat song, but it's rather forgettable, in my opinion. And yes, it looks like they gained at least 10kg each compared to the official music video. 
I know it is not okay to comment on a woman's weight, but it's their choice to show so much skin, so...

Barbara's song "Voila" has that classic French flair (reminiscent of Edith Piaf's "Padam, Padam"). It was time for the French to send a decent song after a series (except for 2018) of bad songs and performances. After listening to all the songs, I felt she had potential (remember the Portuguese song from 2017? ), but I think that this year, considering the overall situation with the Coronavirus pandemic, we need something more optimistic, more cheerful.

That's right, I want to be positive after a difficult year of the pandemic. France has a good song that it has, but I don't think it deserves to be a winner. It is difficult to choose a winner, because it is very subjective, everyone likes their own, but perhaps the winner should be a positive song with a catchy motive, which will soon sound on all radio stations. )

[Saint-loup]

I watched all of them. I liked Manizha's song before and now with the performance, I think it's going to be really powerful, lift you up in a way. Malta definitely interesting, good song, nice beat to it. Serbia seemed dancy, something I personally like. Not sure about the rest, France, Bulgaria, Switzerland getting a lot of talks but they were honestly kinda boring to me. I prefer fun songs so maybe that's just me.

Yes Serbia has a pretty good song IMO but I liked their colored 80's fashion dress in their video clip, and now for their live performance they seem to be dressed all in black while dancing in front of a dark background(with 10kg more ). Where are the colors and the fun of their video? They want to look like opera singers now?
France is the favorite of the bookmakers at the moment but it's highly overvalued IMO, moreover people don't like to spend money to vote for obvious favorites usually.  

Yup, Serbia has such a cheerful and upbeat song, but it's rather forgettable, in my opinion. And yes, it looks like they gained at least 10kg each compared to the official music video.  
I know it is not okay to comment on a woman's weight, but it's their choice to show so much skin, so...

Barbara's song "Voila" has that classic French flair (reminiscent of Edith Piaf's "Padam, Padam"). It was time for the French to send a decent song after a series (except for 2018) of bad songs and performances. After listening to all the songs, I felt she had potential (remember the Portuguese song from 2017? ), but I think that this year, considering the overall situation with the Coronavirus pandemic, we need something more optimistic, more cheerful.

LOL you made me laugh fatfork  
For the Barbara's song I agree with you it's very similar to Padam, padam, and even too much similar I think. Eurovision Song Contest is a contest for original songs, so imitating a dead singer and an old song of his own country doesn't fit the spirit of the competition IMO. On the other hand Cryptmuster wants a happy song broadcasted on all radios but I'm not sure to be able to bear listening "Je me casse" everywhere lol

[mediaBuzz]

Reading this thread I remembered how people were crazy about Alexander Rybak's Fairytale after he won Eurovision in 2009. The song was everywhere for 2-3 years. Ringtones, ads, banners, background music, clubs, everywhere. Said he had to deal with his depression for the last few years. As far I know he is doing well now and kinda returned back to the industry. He has a great personality, don't you think?

[tyKiwanuka]

My Finland bet is looking pathetic, doesn't even make sense to hedge it now But a least Cyprus Top10 @2.80 is looking like good value, currently trading around 1.35.

Did any of you place some bets ? There is lots of action in markets and I regret not jumping on Italy earlier, they are now top favourite to win ESC, with France being a close second.

(...) I don't really think that countries from the 'big 5' ever win except for Germany that one time ten years ago with Satellite (...)

Yep, the Big5 generally have a harder time in ESC, which I think is because they get lots of attention all the time anyway, so in ESC it's time to shine for the smaller countries and people want some "outsider country" to win. But you now have two Big5 countries leading the pack, which tells something, because withthout the handicap of being a Big5 country, we would probably see ITA/FRA at even lower odds and all the rest being @20+.

(with 10kg more ).

And yes, it looks like they gained at least 10kg each compared to the official music video. 

Well observed

That outfit from the Swiss dude also made me laugh hard


I will be doing a little competition here in this thread. Eligible are all users who have posted in this thread at least once until now and are not nick-named BitcoinAccepted, which is:

@swogerino
@LTU_btc
@alegotardo
@lebregone
@fiulpro
@Saint-loup
@kryptqnick
@FatFork
@madnessteat
@aesma
@TheNineClub
@STT
@TopTort777
@StartupAnalyst
@Stalker22
@Cling18
@bbc.reporter
@Goodluckmate.com
@Cryptmuster
@mediaBuzz

Entering this competition is pretty easy, just post your Top15 for the final here in this thread.

1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8 )
9)
10)
11)
12)
13)
14)
15)

If that country is in Top15, you will get 1 point, if you put it on the correct place, you will get 3 points. Most points win 0.0015 BTC, which I will send to the winners wallet.

In case of a tie, the user who posted first, will win. Editing your post is not allowed and will disqualify you. Good luck

[Saint-loup]

That outfit from the Swiss dude also made me laugh hard

LOL Very nice Eurovision outfit  

Well thank you for the contest tyKiwanuka, I hope one of us will at least be able to guess the winner of ESC2021...
But you didn't mention until when we can post our top15 forecast. Can we post it after the semi-finals? Or we have to submit it before the first one?

Did any of you place some bets ? There is lots of action in markets and I regret not jumping on Italy earlier, they are now top favourite to win ESC, with France being a close second.

2 more markets have been added on Stake (semi-final1 & 2 winners). So I think I will place some bets there on 2 or 3 contestants on each market.

[tyKiwanuka]

But you didn't mention until when we can post our top15 forecast. Can we post it after the semi-finals? Or we have to submit it before the first one?

This can be any time you want until the final starts on Saturday.

2 more markets have been added on Stake (semi-final1 & 2 winners). So I think I will place some bets there on 2 or 3 contestants on each market.

And which ones ?

[Saint-loup]

But you didn't mention until when we can post our top15 forecast. Can we post it after the semi-finals? Or we have to submit it before the first one?

This can be any time you want until the final starts on Saturday.

2 more markets have been added on Stake (semi-final1 & 2 winners). So I think I will place some bets there on 2 or 3 contestants on each market.

And which ones ?

LOL I think I won't place any bets until few hours before the start of the shows because as for now it appears that 4 delegations at least have been placed in quarantine : Iceland, Poland, Malta and Romania.
And it seems that if they're not allowed to leave their quarantine by Dutch authorities, a former video of their performance will be broadcasted in place.

The EBU failed to comment on Daði og Gagnamagnið’s upcoming participation in the second semi-final on Thursday 20 May.

However, Eurovision Song Contest Executive Producer Sietse Bakker recently told NOS that in the event of a nation’s delegate testing positive, the act would be barred from performing on the Rotterdam Ahoy stage. Instead, they would have to resort to the live-on-tape recording that were filmed prior to travelling to The Netherlands.
 
Earlier this week, a member of Poland’s Eurovision delegation also tested positive for COVID-19. Again, the EBU did not comment on Rafał’s participation in Thursday’s semi-final. But soon after, Sweden’s Aftonbladet reported that Poland will use the recording of Rafał’s second on-stage rehearsal of “The Ride” rather than the live-on-tape backup recording.

News about the nature of Iceland’s participation is anticipated soon.

https://wiwibloggs.com/2021/05/16/iceland-eurovision-delegation-in-quarantine-after-positive-covid-19-test/265246/

I don't know how japanese people will manage that for the olympic games but it seems they're right to be afraid. Those so called bio-secure bubbles don't work obviously.

[LTU_btc]

@tyKiwanuka, that's nice contest, I'm definitely going to predict. But it would be quite stupid to submit predictions before semifinals. I still haven't decided who is my main favorite to win, probably I will have to rewatch some songs because I already forgot it a bit.

Reading this thread I remembered how people were crazy about Alexander Rybak's Fairytale after he won Eurovision in 2009. The song was everywhere for 2-3 years. Ringtones, ads, banners, background music, clubs, everywhere. Said he had to deal with his depression for the last few years. As far I know he is doing well now and kinda returned back to the industry. He has a great personality, don't you think?

Personally for me his Fairytale song become so annoying that wasn't able to listen it anymore . But damn, it was 12 years ago, time flies so fast... But yeah, Rybak looks like a good guy.

[Saint-loup]

Finally it seems that Destiny(Malta) and Roxen(Romania) will be allowed to participate on stage to the first semi-final this evening.
https://wiwibloggs.com/2021/05/17/update-malta-romania-iceland-poland-covid-19-eurovision-2021/265272/

I still haven't made my bets but I didn't remember that 3 countries of the Big5+the host country are allowed to vote at each semi-final in addition to the 16 countries participating in the semi-final
For the first semi-final the 3 ones will be Germany, Italy and Netherlands

[tyKiwanuka]

My bets for SF1:

Lithuania not to qualify @34
The song this year is way weaker than last years, though I think it's still ok, because it's pretty unique. But 1.03 to qualify is way too low imo, there is a lot of bias from last year in these odds and I do see some value here for Lithuania failing to qualify.

Slovenia not to qualify @1.16
i still think the voice doesn't fit the appearance of this lady. Slovenia is often struggling to reach the final and watching the second rehearsal, this is just not good enough for the final.

Sweden to qualify @1.22
Sweden only failed to qualify once (in 2010) and their entries are usually top-notch and well produced. It's the same this year and although I don't like that song, it's basically a lock for me to reach the final.

Croatia to qualify @1.36
Not sure, if this has any value, but the song is quite catchy. Croatia often struggles to qualify, so if the market puts them at 1.36 to qualify, I'll trust that

Thought about laying Russia to qualify as well, but they generally qualify, so passed on that. And would love to lay Ukraine to qualify, but that on stage performance is just too crazy, people will love it I think

[Saint-loup]

My bets for SF1:

Lithuania not to qualify @34
The song this year is way weaker than last years, though I think it's still ok, because it's pretty unique. But 1.03 to qualify is way too low imo, there is a lot of bias from last year in these odds and I do see some value here for Lithuania failing to qualify.

Slovenia not to qualify @1.16
i still think the voice doesn't fit the appearance of this lady. Slovenia is often struggling to reach the final and watching the second rehearsal, this is just not good enough for the final.

Sweden to qualify @1.22
Sweden only failed to qualify once (in 2010) and their entries are usually top-notch and well produced. It's the same this year and although I don't like that song, it's basically a lock for me to reach the final.

Croatia to qualify @1.36
Not sure, if this has any value, but the song is quite catchy. Croatia often struggles to qualify, so if the market puts them at 1.36 to qualify, I'll trust that

Thought about laying Russia to qualify as well, but they generally qualify, so passed on that. And would love to lay Ukraine to qualify, but that on stage performance is just too crazy, people will love it I think

Very interesting and IMO relevant bets, thank you for having shared them. I rather agree with all of them except for Sweden. @1.22 is IMO overrated. Her number of views on Youtube is pretty low I think, 216k for her second rehearsal vs 208k for Slovenia. Moreover she only reached the 14th place in this recent small poll https://wiwibloggs.com/2021/05/18/poll-results-maltas-destiny-is-your-favourite-to-win-semi-final-one-of-eurovision-2021/265311/


Several markets have been added on Stake : Top10, Top5, Top Nordic Country and Top Balkan Country (in addition to Semi-Final 1&2 winners and ESC winner), so I will be able to chase more EV and try some strategies  

[buwaytress]

Hey guys, ty;) I did not really remember about this contest, but I'm watching because a band I actually really liked since the 1990s are representing Belgium: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EQyG1Yjlgw

Totally nostalgia here of course, just me throwing money at sentiment =D I don't even know what's good value but from what little I know, SMS voting is what wins most teams at the end of the day right?

Put in my bets at Belgium 41/1 and Russia 23/1. Malta should definitely get this on popular vote alone haha. GL ty!

[tyKiwanuka]

Put in my bets at Belgium 41/1 and Russia 23/1.

Is that for Top3 ? Then those are nice odds You can get Belgium @700 and Russia @80 to win^^

[Saint-loup]

Hey guys, ty;) I did not really remember about this contest, but I'm watching because a band I actually really liked since the 1990s are representing Belgium: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EQyG1Yjlgw

Totally nostalgia here of course, just me throwing money at sentiment =D I don't even know what's good value but from what little I know, SMS voting is what wins most teams at the end of the day right?

Put in my bets at Belgium 41/1 and Russia 23/1. Malta should definitely get this on popular vote alone haha. GL ty!

I really like this song too, and I would send a vote for them if my country was allowed to vote at this semi-final. I hope they will be able to qualify.

Since to qualify markets are now available on Stake I have placed these few bets.
To qualify
Belgium @1.66
Russia @1.06
Croatia @1.30
Azerbaijan @1.53

To not qualify
Ireland @1.22
North Macedonia @1.10
Slovenia @1.14
Australia @1.30
Israël @1.57 for geopolitical reasons (war ongoing)

Top 10
Italy @1.11
Malta @1.12

[LTU_btc]

@tyKiwanuka, are you really betting on odds like 1.16 or 1.22?
About Lithuania, where did you found such odds for us not qualify. Local bookmaker giving just 15.00 for Lithuania not to qualify.
I don't have much experience betting on Eurovision, so I will just throw some money. Azerbaijan to qualify @1.60. Winner of semifinal Malta @1.55.
Agree about Israel not qualify.
Anyone betting on H2H markets. Sweden vs Norway I pick Sweden @1.50 and Belgium vs Israel my pick is Belgium @1.55.

[bbc.reporter]

It appears everything is presently on Youtube hehe. This was the live stream for the first semifinals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRIHdPDt6ew

I have not watched the whole stream, only my favorite bet Azerbaijan dancing the mata hari hehehe. Her odds to be included in the top 10 is 3.00. I speculate Sweden might also be voted in the top 10 and also Greece.

2 beautiful women and someone who the progressives might want to win hehehehehe.