[Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2021

[Kittygalore]

How is Australia part of Eurovision? Aren't they a different continent themselves? What's the reason for Armenia not participating and Belarus' disqualification?

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[buwaytress]

Put in my bets at Belgium 41/1 and Russia 23/1.

Is that for Top3 ? Then those are nice odds You can get Belgium @700 and Russia @80 to win^^

It's for Semifinal 1 winner, so, was not really good odds I guess haha. Which other sportsbook offers these lines right now, do you know? Fairlay and Sportsbet the only ones I looked. Stake doesn't let me play anymore.

Malta only got 5th though;) Belgium made it 11th haha.

I also took now a Belgium top 5 at 17/1, which I guess isn't very good, but I'm too lazy to find a book and deposit right now so close to end of season, unless it's one I already maybe have an account on =D

@Saint-loup which country are you from?

[Saint-loup]

Put in my bets at Belgium 41/1 and Russia 23/1.

Is that for Top3 ? Then those are nice odds You can get Belgium @700 and Russia @80 to win^^

It's for Semifinal 1 winner, so, was not really good odds I guess haha. Which other sportsbook offers these lines right now, do you know? Fairlay and Sportsbet the only ones I looked. Stake doesn't let me play anymore.

Malta only got 5th though;) Belgium made it 11th haha.

I also took now a Belgium top 5 at 17/1, which I guess isn't very good, but I'm too lazy to find a book and deposit right now so close to end of season, unless it's one I already maybe have an account on =D

@Saint-loup which country are you from?

AFAIK results haven't been published anywhere yet. 11th was just the running order of Belgium on stage, they necessarily finished at a better place than that, because they are among the 10 winners of the semi-final. 
5th for Malta, I don't know what is it though, maybe it's a result from a poll?
I'm from France.

[buwaytress]

AFAIK results haven't been published anywhere yet. 11th was just the running order of Belgium on stage, they necessarily finished at a better place than that, because they are among the 10 winners of the semi-final. 
5th for Malta, I don't know what is it though, maybe it's a result from a poll?
I'm from France.

Ah, okay. So the order they were announced isn't their actual placing, I got it then. Malta was the 5th announced and Belgium the 9th, not the 11th as I mentioned (my apologies, I got mixed up).

Now I'm reading up and it's not clear to me when or how they announce SF 1 winners or SF 2 even. Everything I find online is just guidance on progression to Grand Final and jury + audience voting.

Yes, not exactly a Eurovision virgin here but this is still only my second (half-voluntary) rodeo;)

[tyKiwanuka]

The winners of the semifinals will only get announced after the final, to keep the tension high. If we knew the SF results already before the final, the final itself would probably be pretty boring (more boring than it is anyway already^^).

[LTU_btc]

How is Australia part of Eurovision? Aren't they a different continent themselves? What's the reason for Armenia not participating and Belarus' disqualification?

Australia are members of European Broadcastin Union and Eurovision is very popular there, so they got invited to this contest. Armenia withdraw because of social and political crisis after war in Nagorno Karabakh. Belarus were banned because their song had political message.

If we knew the SF results already before the final, the final itself would probably be pretty boring (more boring than it is anyway already^^).

Yeah, in first semifinal everything ended more or less as expected. From all songs, probably only Cyprus song stuck in my mind. But it sounds very similar to Lady Gaga song Alejandro or Rita Ora Anywhere. Intially I didn't liked Ukraine song, but now I changed my mind - I liked their energy on stage. Happy that Belgium reached final - they aren't contenders, but it's good to hear some quality music, not only generic pop.
Russia performance wasn't typical for them and I kinda liked it.

[Saint-loup]

How is Australia part of Eurovision? Aren't they a different continent themselves? What's the reason for Armenia not participating and Belarus' disqualification?

Australia are members of European Broadcastin Union and Eurovision is very popular there, so they got invited to this contest. Armenia withdraw because of social and political crisis after war in Nagorno Karabakh. Belarus were banned because their song had political message.

If we knew the SF results already before the final, the final itself would probably be pretty boring (more boring than it is anyway already^^).

Yeah, in first semifinal everything ended more or less as expected. From all songs, probably only Cyprus song stuck in my mind. But it sounds very similar to Lady Gaga song Alejandro or Rita Ora Anywhere. Intially I didn't liked Ukraine song, but now I changed my mind - I liked their energy on stage. Happy that Belgium reached final - they aren't contenders, but it's good to hear some quality music, not only generic pop.
Russia performance wasn't typical for them and I kinda liked it.

I agree with you there hasn't been any big surprise, everything has ended more or less as expected.
For Ukraine it seems they have been very appreciated by the public and by the bookmakers, they won several places in the rankings and are now the 4th entrant most likely to win the contest according to bookmakers.
The video of their performance is the second most viewed on Youtube of the semi-final (already more than 2million views as for now) and if you look at the comments below the video of the whole show you'll find a huge amount of comments supporting them and Azerbaijan, even from countries not participating.

Easily the biggest mover from the first semifinal is Ukraine. The two-time winner was even predicted to not make the final back when Go_A’s entry “Shum” was released. The group’s energetic stage performances since rehearsals have since caused massive waves for Go_A. Coming from obscurity, they now sit at fourth place on the odds, at around 9/1.
 
Their performance also racked up an outstanding half a million views on YouTube. This is the second most of all the semi-final performances, sitting second to Russia, which has over 800,000.

https://wiwibloggs.com/2021/05/19/eurovision-2021-odds-italy-is-still-the-favourite-to-win/265330/

[Saint-loup]

Nobody has placed any bet for this semi-final?


Semi-final 2 running order :

San Marino: Senhit – Adrenalina
Estonia: Uku Suviste – The Lucky One
Czech Republic: Benny Cristo – omaga
Greece: Stefania – Last Dance
Austria: Vincent Bueno – Amen
Poland: RAFAŁ – The Ride
Moldova: Natalia Gordienko – SUGAR
Iceland: Da∂i og Gagnamagni∂ – 10 Years
Serbia: Hurricane – Loco Loco
Georgia: Tornike Kipiani – You
Albania: Anxhela Peristeri – Karma
Portugal: The Black Mamba – Love Is On My Side
Bulgaria: Victoria – Growing Up is Getting Old
Finland: Blind Channel – Dark Side
Latvia: Samanta Tīna – The Moon is Rising
Switzerland: Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’Univers
Denmark: Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden

There are 17 countries competing for 10 spots in the Grand Final.

[tyKiwanuka]

Didn't like the odds, but played Iceland, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, San Marino, Portugal NOT to qualify. But nothing I would recommend to follow, otoh if one of them fails to qualify, it's already profit

[Saint-loup]

Didn't like the odds, but played Iceland, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Finland, Greece, San Marino, Portugal NOT to qualify. But nothing I would recommend to follow, otoh if one of them fails to qualify, it's already profit

Wow I thought I took offensive bets by betting on Poland @5.85, Latvia @3.85, Moldova @2.00 to qualify and Albania @2.35 to not qualify but it seems I have been a small player compared to you. I placed bets on all participants this time and they've all won except the 3 above but the odds were not very high for the other bets. It seems Moldova has been the only underdog to qualify of this semi-final.

[Kittygalore]

How is Australia part of Eurovision? Aren't they a different continent themselves? What's the reason for Armenia not participating and Belarus' disqualification?

Australia are members of European Broadcastin Union and Eurovision is very popular there, so they got invited to this contest. Armenia withdraw because of social and political crisis after war in Nagorno Karabakh. Belarus were banned because their song had political message.

The Belarus ban seems a bit sketchy to me, why would they ban something political in a song, that's the best way to make the public aware of how evil their government is, are they that scared of the lyrics of a song? I hope that the war in Armenia and every other country will finally end.

[FatFork]

After two semifinals, 15 countries have been eliminated and 26 will compete in Saturday's final. Here is a final list of all the contestants in order of performance with links to their official music video and live performance (where available).

R/O	Country	Artist	Song	Music Video	Live
1	Cyprus	Elena Tsagrinou	El Diablo	click	click
2	Albania	Anxhela Peristeri	Karma	click	click
3	Israel	Eden Alene	Set Me Free	click	click
4	Belgium	Hooverphonic	The Wrong Place	click	click
5	Russia	Manizha	Russian Woman	click	click
6	Malta	Destiny	Je Me Casse	click	click
7	Portugal	The Black Mamba	Love Is On My Side	click	click
8	Serbia	Hurricane	Loco Loco	click	click
9	United Kingdom	James Newman	Embers	click	click
10	Greece	Stefania	Last Dance	click	click
11	Switzerland	Gjon's Tears	Tout l'Univers	click	click
12	Iceland	Daði og Gagnamagnið	10 Years	click	click
13	Spain	Blas Cantó	Voy A Quedarme	click	click
14	Moldova	Natalia Gordienko	SUGAR	click	click
15	Germany	Jendrik	I Don't Feel Hate	click	click
16	Finland	Blind Channel	Dark Side	click	click
17	Bulgaria	VICTORIA	Growing Up Is Getting Old	click	click
18	Lithuania	The Roop	Discoteque	click	click
19	Ukraine	Go_A	Shum	click	click
20	France	Barbara Pravi	Voilà	click	click
21	Azerbaijan	Efendi	Mata Hari	click	click
22	Norway	TIX	Fallen Angel	click	click
23	The Netherlands	Jeangu Macrooy	Birth Of A New Age	click	click
24	Italy	Måneskin	Zitti E Buoni	click	click
25	Sweden	Tusse	Voices	click	click
26	San Marino	Senhit	Adrenalina	click	click

source of data: https://eurovision.tv/event/rotterdam-2021/grand-final

[tyKiwanuka]

It seems Moldova has been the only underdog to qualify of this semi-final.

It's really amazing how damn good these markets are priced, when you consider that there is some bit (or a lot) of randomness in it. In Betfair you couldn't even bet on Switzerland/Bulgaria to qualify, there were no odds to bet on (I just layed 1.01 which people were asking for).

At least we got some nice insights for the final. Ukraine will do very well I think; I didn't like that "song" in the beginning, but the more I hear it plus the stage performance, the more I like it. Portugal looks like some masterpiece as well, which will get loads of jury votings. Finland went from 160 -> 36 in Betfair, so my 40 looks kind of good again. Still don't think they will win, but it's the only rock-song and there is an audience for that among the ESC fans. After their performance Linkin Park was even trending on Twitter

[swogerino]

It seems Moldova has been the only underdog to qualify of this semi-final.

It's really amazing how damn good these markets are priced, when you consider that there is some bit (or a lot) of randomness in it. In Betfair you couldn't even bet on Switzerland/Bulgaria to qualify, there were no odds to bet on (I just layed 1.01 which people were asking for).

At least we got some nice insights for the final. Ukraine will do very well I think; I didn't like that "song" in the beginning, but the more I hear it plus the stage performance, the more I like it. Portugal looks like some masterpiece as well, which will get loads of jury votings. Finland went from 160 -> 36 in Betfair, so my 40 looks kind of good again. Still don't think they will win, but it's the only rock-song and there is an audience for that among the ESC fans. After their performance Linkin Park was even trending on Twitter

I agree.There is a lot of randomness here as is different from the other types of betting where we know the players and the teams for example in sport betting.Here I think the odds are just some random odds because in the end it will decide the public plus the votes of each country towards each other.I think we cannot have a prediction at people's music taste and I think anyone can be a winner here because it is based on the votes if the rules haven't changed during this year.

[Saint-loup]

It seems Moldova has been the only underdog to qualify of this semi-final.

It's really amazing how damn good these markets are priced, when you consider that there is some bit (or a lot) of randomness in it. In Betfair you couldn't even bet on Switzerland/Bulgaria to qualify, there were no odds to bet on (I just layed 1.01 which people were asking for).

At least we got some nice insights for the final. Ukraine will do very well I think; I didn't like that "song" in the beginning, but the more I hear it plus the stage performance, the more I like it. Portugal looks like some masterpiece as well, which will get loads of jury votings. Finland went from 160 -> 36 in Betfair, so my 40 looks kind of good again. Still don't think they will win, but it's the only rock-song and there is an audience for that among the ESC fans. After their performance Linkin Park was even trending on Twitter

If you layed Bulgaria at 1.01 you made a good lay bet IMO, I have been able to bet @1.01 on Switzerland and Bulgaria on Stake but I think 1.01 was overpriced for Bulgaria. Gjon's Tears(ch) was assured to get many jury votes because of his voice and his way of singing but it wasn't the case for Victoria(bg) IMO.

[LTU_btc]

2nd semifinal were less interesting as the 1st one. There is not that many songs that I liked there. Finland song I liked most. San Marino also stuck in my mind. Serbia had very typical Eurovision song, but I suspect that they will get support from other Balkan countries.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bulgaria were one of favorites, but now they went down in bookmakers ratings. Interesting what's the reason of it. Not a fan of such type of songs, but their performance was emotional and probably it will be reason to get more votes.

The Belarus ban seems a bit sketchy to me, why would they ban something political in a song, that's the best way to make the public aware of how evil their government is, are they that scared of the lyrics of a song? I hope that the war in Armenia and every other country will finally end.

Actually, their song was indirect message supporting regime of Lukashenko. Belarus Eurovision participants are selected by state-owned television, so, they would never let participate someone who is against President and his regime.

[Saint-loup]

2nd semifinal were less interesting as the 1st one. There is not that many songs that I liked there. Finland song I liked most. San Marino also stuck in my mind. Serbia had very typical Eurovision song, but I suspect that they will get support from other Balkan countries.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bulgaria were one of favorites, but now they went down in bookmakers ratings. Interesting what's the reason of it. Not a fan of such type of songs, but their performance was emotional and probably it will be reason to get more votes.

The Belarus ban seems a bit sketchy to me, why would they ban something political in a song, that's the best way to make the public aware of how evil their government is, are they that scared of the lyrics of a song? I hope that the war in Armenia and every other country will finally end.

Actually, their song was indirect message supporting regime of Lukashenko. Belarus Eurovision participants are selected by state-owned television, so, they would never let participate someone who is against President and his regime.

I agree with you the overall level was lower than for the first semi-final, with less amazing performances IMO. And I don't know why but the "big serbians" already get more than 4 million views on the ESC channel for their semi-final show, that's above the number of views of Efendi's performance 2 days before. I don't think they will finish in the top10 though but they could make a better score than expected.

[bbc.reporter]

My personal choices for the best songs and performances after watching the 2 semifinals shows are Portugal, Greece and Lithuania. Odds on them are Greece 126.00, Lithuania 81.00 and Portugal 34.00. I reckon Portugal might win the hearts of the voters with their song. I also realized that Eurovision is total entertainment without the politics that might affect the votes.

[TheNineClub]

2nd semifinal were less interesting as the 1st one. There is not that many songs that I liked there. Finland song I liked most. San Marino also stuck in my mind. Serbia had very typical Eurovision song, but I suspect that they will get support from other Balkan countries.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bulgaria were one of favorites, but now they went down in bookmakers ratings. Interesting what's the reason of it. Not a fan of such type of songs, but their performance was emotional and probably it will be reason to get more votes.

The Belarus ban seems a bit sketchy to me, why would they ban something political in a song, that's the best way to make the public aware of how evil their government is, are they that scared of the lyrics of a song? I hope that the war in Armenia and every other country will finally end.

Actually, their song was indirect message supporting regime of Lukashenko. Belarus Eurovision participants are selected by state-owned television, so, they would never let participate someone who is against President and his regime.

I agree with you the overall level was lower than for the first semi-final, with less amazing performances IMO. And I don't know why but the "big serbians" already get more than 4 million views on the ESC channel for their semi-final show, that's above the number of views of Efendi's performance 2 days before. I don't think they will finish in the top10 but they could make a better score than expected.

I would argue that the overall level of the competition has been low for the last 10 years. You see glimpses of genuinity here and there, but for the most part it was a bland mix of pop and badly desugned performances.

[tyKiwanuka]

I would argue that the overall level of the competition has been low for the last 10 years. You see glimpses of genuinity here and there, but for the most part it was a bland mix of pop and badly desugned performances.

Yep, totally agree I find it a bit odd that the quality doesn't seem to improve (read: it actually regresses) though, because it's a pretty big event with a huge audience, but the countries don't seem to bother with putting huge effort into this. For my country they are even happy to find someone who is willing to go there The "bigger" artists never bother to go to ESC, so it's always someone who nobody knows even here.


I added some bets:

Portugal to win jury vote @20
Portugal Top10 @2.06
Best Balkan -> Serbia @4.5 (Greece, Albania, Bulgaria are in the mix too, with Bulgaria being the fav, but those views for serbian entry have been really huge all the time, so there must be something going on).
Serbia Top10 @6
Ukraine Top4 @1.99