UFC Fight Night & Main Event: Sportsbet.io Predictions & discussion

[buwaytress]

Big ouch for me on all fights last night, people. As you said, rdbase, almost all favs won so that itself was strange. One day I'll have to stay up on holiday to watch these live.

Lost all 3 of the highlight bets (Diaz, Murphy, Ortega) and damn, even the Modafferi @bbc.reporter haha. Not a very good omen for me doing the most bets, but I'm still in the black, and my martingale will continue next week on the underdogs;)

Worst, I didn't even take the Daukaus KO/TKO I thought was good value, and he did it in Round 2. Tsk!

[rdbase]

^^
Just as long as your in the black then that is all that counts when it comes to betting.
Use whatever system that suits you best cause betting the same way going into events never gives the best results.
For example, if you bet go the distance when you notice the earlier fights of the night are going their full rounds. The later ones sometimes end quick.

Here is the challenge on this weekend's matches for the Santos vs Walker UFC fight night:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5363140.0

[Betwrong]

I see both of you, guys, @buwaytress and @rdbase, are betting on Antonina Shevchenko, and I'm wondering why do think she's going to win?

I mean, she uswed to be a great fighter in the past, but I think beginning this year she has started losing her strength. She's 36 after all. I know they say even 40 is not too old for MMA, but c'mon, being 36 you have slim chances of beating a 23 y.o.

I'm so sure Casey will win, I even placed a bet on her on sportsbet.io, and then placed another one.

[buwaytress]

I see both of you, guys, @buwaytress and @rdbase, are betting on Antonina Shevchenko, and I'm wondering why do think she's going to win?

I mean, she uswed to be a great fighter in the past, but I think beginning this year she has started losing her strength. She's 36 after all. I know they say even 40 is not too old for MMA, but c'mon, being 36 you have slim chances of beating a 23 y.o.

I'm so sure Casey will win, I even placed a bet on her on sportsbet.io, and then placed another one.

Ooh, rdbase picks same as me, I must be doing something right

But nah, I don't think when I make my predictions. I do choose a fair amount of upsets in every selection, and on all the highlight bouts, I am playing a martingale system now of betting on every underdog, every time  (and when the odds are too tight to have a favourite, then I go for the one with the worse record). If I lose, I go next round and double down (not the stake, but the amount needed to cover my loss and win a wee bit more than stake, so it's actually not so bad since I bet on underdog).

[leea-1334]

Hey guys, popping inside here to try and learn more about UFC. I never placed a bet yet only participating in the Sportsbet prediction promos,,, which have a high appeal to me as they are like Multimaster except I seriously just place random picks based on odds given!

Who here usually gets all their picks right? Time to learn and follow

[rdbase]

Hey guys, popping inside here to try and learn more about UFC. I never placed a bet yet only participating in the Sportsbet prediction promos,,, which have a high appeal to me as they are like Multimaster except I seriously just place random picks based on odds given!

Who here usually gets all their picks right? Time to learn and follow

Good to see you here leea-1334 and welcome.
The multimaster promo is a good way to get involved in these UFC predictions so to get a feel for each fighter as they usually do fight again a few months in another fight night or main card.
To get all the picks right you do need to be a master at UFC.
And if you do manage to do that well you would win it every week. And you might as well put them down on a 15+ parlay.
It would certainly be a 90x odd monster slip.
The one last weekend for UFC 266 was and I was only off by two picks.
So it possible, you just need to know who the fighters are and how they are days before the fight (injuries).

@betwrong: In regards to picking Shevchenko. Yeah, I usually do pick her. She travels with her sister so just having that inspiration is motivation enough for her to battle it through a fight. During her last fight I watched she was in good form even if facing a younger opponent.. experience does matter as well.

[buwaytress]

Yeah, warm welcome leea-1334! You now join me in UFC and baseball (MBL) in participating in discussions for games I've never actually watched fully (UFC I've never seen live and baseball I only see highlight reels).

Not to mention before the Covid season I knew zero about either, but I did enjoy muay Thai tremendously in the past (so long ago I feel scared to think about how old I am) and MMA does remind me a lot about that, although the trash talk is a bit over the top for me.

Please don't be as good with this as you are at MM!

[buwaytress]

Santos split decision, so another fight that went all the way I kept delaying my betting on! And Shevchenko did lose, pretty late in the second half KO/TKO, so nicely done @Betwrong for calling out her age; you even doubled down again, didn't you?

In the end we had 1 draw and 1 fight cancelled so we only had 11 picks to get right. These were the results (loser is struck out):

✓ Thiago Santos - Johnny Walker
- Kevin Holland  -  Kyle Daukaus - DRAW
X Alex Oliveira  -  Niko Price
✓ Misha Cirkunov  -  Krzysztof Jotko
- Aspen Ladd  -  Macy Chiasson CANCELLED
✓ Alexander Hernandez  -  Mike Breeden
X Joe Solecki  -  Jared Gordon
X Antonina Shevchenko   -  Casey O'Neill
✓ Bethe Correia  -  Karol Rosa
✓ Devonte Smith  -  Jamie Mullarkey
✓ Douglas Silva de Andrade  -  Gaetano Pirrello
✓ Stephanie Egger  -  Shanna Young
✓ Alejandro Perez  -  Johnny Eduardo

Ticks are where I got my picks right! 8 out of 11 ain't bad right?

[leea-1334]

Good to see you here leea-1334 and welcome.

Thank you,,, I am seeing myself growing in a lot of new areas of sports. I only played very amateurish on Asian handicap style football,,, which in reality is not even called handicap, just you always take your own team, and then you offer someone else a goal or half goal or something. I am now always looking for new things thanks to all these new Sportsbet support for other sports

Please don't be as good with this as you are at MM!

If only I was as good at real betting as in random predictions

[Betwrong]

~

Ooh, rdbase picks same as me, I must be doing something right

But nah, I don't think when I make my predictions. I do choose a fair amount of upsets in every selection, and on all the highlight bouts, I am playing a martingale system now of betting on every underdog, every time  (and when the odds are too tight to have a favourite, then I go for the one with the worse record). If I lose, I go next round and double down (not the stake, but the amount needed to cover my loss and win a wee bit more than stake, so it's actually not so bad since I bet on underdog).

Betting on the underdog is my favorite thing to do: on the one hand, I'm ready to lose because I know my chances are slim, on the other hand, if I win it's a good win. Only rarely I bet on everyone's favorite for a change.

~
@betwrong: In regards to picking Shevchenko. Yeah, I usually do pick her. She travels with her sister so just having that inspiration is motivation enough for her to battle it through a fight. During her last fight I watched she was in good form even if facing a younger opponent.. experience does matter as well.

I was right with my betting on Casey O'Neill, but I wasn't so good in my other predictions:

13)  Thiago Santos V
12)  Kevin Holland - no contest
11)  Alex Oliveira X
10)  Krzysztof Jotko V
9)  Aspen Ladd - cancelled
8 )  Alexander Hernandez V
7)  Joe Solecki X
6)  Casey O'Neill V
5)  Bethe Correia X
4)  Devonte Smith X
3)  Douglas Silva de Andrade V
2)  Shanna Young  X
1)  Alejandro Perez V

Got only 6 of them right.

[rdbase]

Good on getting as many you had correctly picked cause the vegas ones are very unpredicitable.
As you can see from the Kevin Holland fight going no contest. And he did ask for a rematch, so matches like these when something so flukely can happen is really impossible to foresee.
The next UFC event to look forward too is nearly a whole month away with Blachowicz vs Teixeira in Abu dhabi.
Title fights like these are always a long wait away.
So look out for the next one in vegas for the weekends.

[leea-1334]

Good on getting as many you had correctly picked cause the vegas ones are very unpredicitable.
As you can see from the Kevin Holland fight going no contest. And he did ask for a rematch, so matches like these when something so flukely can happen is really impossible to foresee.
The next UFC event to look forward too is nearly a whole month away with Blachowicz vs Teixeira in Abu dhabi.
Title fights like these are always a long wait away.
So look out for the next one in vegas for the weekends.

What are the odds of a no contest happening in UFC, is this usually something that happens a lot because in tennis also it seems every tournament there is a few walkovers or forfeits.

And more interesting is to see if anyone is an expert at predicting those and if you can actually bet on that outcome  

One whole month away is a long time to wait so luckily we have Vegas cards!

[rdbase]

Good on getting as many you had correctly picked cause the vegas ones are very unpredicitable.
As you can see from the Kevin Holland fight going no contest. And he did ask for a rematch, so matches like these when something so flukely can happen is really impossible to foresee.
The next UFC event to look forward too is nearly a whole month away with Blachowicz vs Teixeira in Abu dhabi.
Title fights like these are always a long wait away.
So look out for the next one in vegas for the weekends.

What are the odds of a no contest happening in UFC, is this usually something that happens a lot because in tennis also it seems every tournament there is a few walkovers or forfeits.

And more interesting is to see if anyone is an expert at predicting those and if you can actually bet on that outcome  

One whole month away is a long time to wait so luckily we have Vegas cards!

For no contest there aren't odds on it as the odds providers (atleast the ones I have bet on those rare matches and had the bets settled with) have voided the bets and gave back the wagered amount.

As for the vegas bouts, here is the next multimaster challenge for you to bet on for Vegas 39:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5364124.msg58106750#msg58106750

be aware one match has already been struck off the card due to restrictions

[leea-1334]

For no contest there aren't odds on it as the odds providers (atleast the ones I have bet on those rare matches and had the bets settled with) have voided the bets and gave back the wagered amount.

As for the vegas bouts, here is the next multimaster challenge for you to bet on for Vegas 39:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5364124.msg58106750#msg58106750

Ah too bad,,, I bet you a lot of people would start looking those markets if there was any. I try to look in all the markets and most odds are so low still, even to go the distance is not big enough to make it very exciting to bet. I guess it is just because not a lot of betters or money behind it yet.

And I put in my picks already thank you!

[buwaytress]

Nothing really tickling my fancy this weekend but I'm going to throw a bit of money on a favourite acca of Steve Garcia, Lupita Godinez, Alexander Romanov @2.12, to halve the deficit I have on one leg of my martingale strategy. Nothing really special but individually, they're tipped not higher than 1.4 to win so I thought, hell, why not?

About time I switched scales for a while.

And I can feel the jinx coming.

[rdbase]

Good luck to you buwaytress!

This UFC Vegas is starting earlier than usual. The first match is in an hour and the last bout with Dern is scheduled to begin in 4 hours.
So not much time left to put in your bets and in the multimaster here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5364124.msg58106750#msg58106750

I have Damon Jackson, Silvana Godinez, Chris Gutierrez. Steve Garica and Matheus Nicolau to all win their matches.
And the last bout to go the distance. So we will see.

You can bet on all matches here:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/mma/ufc/ufc-fight-night-dern-vs-rodriguez/matches

[buwaytress]

Thank you rdbase! I hit last night's 3-leg acca on the favourites, so I got exactly what I was aiming for -- halving the deficit on my martingale strategy (I have 2 martingale lanes, one in profit and one still waiting for the next big bout to bet on underdog).

Not bad on your own picks too! Picked everything right, tight decisions on Jackson, Nicolau (plus your all the way) and Gutierrez, Godinez submitted though but 4 out of 5 is very nice.

[rdbase]

^
I meant the last bout as in the main card to go the distance and it did.
So all were correct, hence the wink at the end of the "So we will see!". As it was a very long shot for all the betting youtube channels were saying it was priced way to high, and it certainly was. So this is why I took it cause you know me.

It was a successful night for almost all the favorites except for two or three if you count the Rod over Dern match.
There were three matches that were either cancelled or changed the contender. This might be why it came out this way.

[leea-1334]

Looks like all I need to do is follow you both in this type of betting and I guess multibets is the only way to make big cash here,,, unless you are confident to be betting singles with large amounts. What are you guys picks for the coming weekend fights?

You know I Google the coming fights and it is interesting to see the stats, almost not a single player has a LOSS in their stats, how is this possible? Are there so many fighters that only the best who never lose meet in the main events? How does this whole thing work? Is there a format to decide who goes up to fight?

[rdbase]

Most of these fighters who have a flawless record in winning are from the contender series and them fighting in other organizations.
So I wouldn't go by their records alone but by their winning streaks in the UFC for their past fights.
Anyways, the next Vegas bouts should be easier to select. Just pick the favorites to win and put them on a multi betslip for this weekend.

Here is the multimasters for Vegas 40 for you to enter and once again it is free to do so:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5365536.0