JJG’s Outline of Bitcoin Investment Ideas

[CageMabok]

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Most persons has faild to understand that investing in bitcoin is suppose to done within their discretionary income. Some persons even go extra mile to invest in bitcoin first immediately they receive their salary before they focus on settling their basic needs and expenses which is very wrong. Investing in bitcoin is suppose to be done  after you most have settled all your basic needs and expenses, then the leftover money is the money you should investing in bitcoin and not the other way round.

What you're saying is absolutely correct, as funds for any investment should be specifically allocated and separate from other needs. This means that each fund for any purpose should be unrelated, ensuring that our goals can run smoothly because the funds are intentionally allocated for each purpose, without any involvement from other things. I often share your advice with people around me who intend to become investors by buying Bitcoin and holding it for the long term. Giving the best advice to people who haven't made any mistakes is far better than giving them the best advice after they've already made a mistake in the investment sector.

[alankasman]

Of course, you protect your bitcoin investment through back up funds and/or emergency funds, yet you also protect your bitcoin investment by trying to make sure that you continue to have income that is coming in that is greater than your expenses, and so you may well try to make sure that you keep your expenses below your income.. so then you have extra money each week that you could choose to continue to buy bitcoin with part of that extra income.
You don't necessarily need a steady income to get started investing in bitcoin, yet if you are going to maintain your bitcoin investment and to potentially ongoingly build it, then it is good to seek ways to increase your income and/or cut your expenses and to ongoingly engage in such activities to the extent that it may be feasible for your own particular circumstances.

That's right because protecting your Bitcoin investment requires ensuring your income is balanced ensuring your income and expenses are more stable. This ensures your expenses don't exceed your income. This helps to maintain a healthy balance between your expenses and your emergency funds which you've already saved for years before you learned about Bitcoin investment.
We can use these additional funds for investments but our goal is to invest by using these additional funds to buy Bitcoin. Using these additional funds to buy Bitcoin will undoubtedly yield future profits especially considering our long-term strategy for accumulating Bitcoin is a brilliant idea for managing our emergency funds/additional funds to buy Bitcoin.

I believe this is inherent in each of us. Even if someone has a substantial income if they don't have the courage to start it will be very difficult to increase their income because they certainly won't accept losses in investing. Therefore I dare say that all of these factors are inherent in each of us. If someone has the potential even though they are constrained by income but still want to think about how to get money to be able to invest either in Gold or accumulate a lot of BTC because in my opinion investing is not only by collecting Bitcoin alone but by having Gold can also be considered an investment so that each person's thoughts remain different between those who have potential and those who only think about it without doing activities that can lead to getting money with the aim of having assets for the future for that person, the point is all matters regarding increasing income are the same for each individual regardless of what activities they do.

[BlackBoss_]

What you're saying is absolutely correct, as funds for any investment should be specifically allocated and separate from other needs. This means that each fund for any purpose should be unrelated, ensuring that our goals can run smoothly because the funds are intentionally allocated for each purpose, without any involvement from other things. I often share your advice with people around me who intend to become investors by buying Bitcoin and holding it for the long term. Giving the best advice to people who haven't made any mistakes is far better than giving them the best advice after they've already made a mistake in the investment sector.

Separating your finance into different parts for different purposes is a good start of your financial management, then your investment capital management and investment portfolio management.

It helps you identifying your different needs of spendings, and can maintain your investment capital quite safely without need of using it. In addition, if you plan to buy bitcoin for two purposers: investment and trading, you will need to store your bitcoins in two separated parts. One part for investment that you will  not trade your bitcoin, and another part for trading.

The investment part must be stored in your open source, non custodial wallets, if best in hardware wallets. By splitting your bitcoin fund clearly like this, you will not trade your bitcoin in investment part.

[Ruttoshi]

if you plan to buy bitcoin for two purposers: investment and trading, you will need to store your bitcoins in two separated parts. One part for investment that you will  not trade your bitcoin, and another part for trading.

The investment part must be stored in your open source, non custodial wallets, if best in hardware wallets. By splitting your bitcoin fund clearly like this, you will not trade your bitcoin in investment part.

I think that there's no need for a brand new long-term investor that is still building his bitcoin portfolio to think about trading talkmore, of seperating a wallet specially for trading because he will definitely lose focus on his bitcoin investment since trading is complicated and need maximum concentration.

It's better that the investor focus on building and growing his bitcoin investment for the future and forget about little gains which I see as gambling because after losing all the money in his trading wallet, he might choose to start tapping from his bitcoin investment wallet believing that if he makes profit, he will put it back and gradually, he will start depreciating his bitcoin investment portfolio because traders are losers in the long run.

You cannot serve two masters as the same time effectively, you will either focus more on one than the other. Trading is a means to throw away your hard earned money into thin air.

[Olatundespo]

if you plan to buy bitcoin for two purposers: investment and trading, you will need to store your bitcoins in two separated parts. One part for investment that you will  not trade your bitcoin, and another part for trading.

The investment part must be stored in your open source, non custodial wallets, if best in hardware wallets. By splitting your bitcoin fund clearly like this, you will not trade your bitcoin in investment part.

I think that there's no need for a brand new long-term investor that is still building his bitcoin portfolio to think about trading talkmore, of seperating a wallet specially for trading because he will definitely lose focus on his bitcoin investment since trading is complicated and need maximum concentration.

It's better that the investor focus on building and growing his bitcoin investment for the future and forget about little gains which I see as gambling because after losing all the money in his trading wallet, he might choose to start tapping from his bitcoin investment wallet believing that if he makes profit, he will put it back and gradually, he will start depreciating his bitcoin investment portfolio because traders are losers in the long run.

You cannot serve two masters as the same time effectively, you will either focus more on one than the other. Trading is a means to throw away your hard earned money into thin air.

Of course I agree with you. Those who are still new need to refrain from thinking about trading and should focus on long-term investments. Some person go wrong with the risky aspect of trading in the greed of getting more profit in the short term. There are some investors who separate their wallets for trading. But believe me, I initially applied this method and that decision was like a gamble for me.

Experienced traders cannot make perfect decisions by analyzing the market at that stage it will be like jumping into a fire for a new investor. Trading puts most traders in financial disaster. Those greedy traders think that short term trading will make them rich in a short time compared to long term accumulation strategies but they are proven wrong.

[B2Z]

Are you trying to suggest that you were investing in bitcoin prior to your forum registration date (which was April 2024), since I have a hard time understanding how a person who had been investing in bitcoin since ONLY 2024 or even in the whole last cycle (meaning 4 years) would have had been able to reach any meaningful level of bitcoin accumulation and/or to also get "a lot" money out of of bitcoin.  

Are you talking about investing or trading B2Z?

Before registering on the forum, I knew about Bitcoin, but I didn't know enough, which made me more curious about how I could learn more about it. When I came to this forum, my doubts about many investment topics started to disappear in many Bitcoin-related discussions, especially in the discussions you made in different sections.

And I have always been not very interested in trading, which is why I tried to learn about investment from the beginning and always tried to talk about investment

This highlights the advantage and value of accessing platforms where you can get the right information that essentially meet your needs for growth. Most of the newbies to bitcoin that had to make costly mistakes we as a result of been in a platform that they were misinformed.

There should be no confusion for new members about investment if they read the various investment-related discussions of JJG. You are definitely welcome if you have tried to learn about investment. You must understand the difference between investment and trading before learning about investment. Suppose you are an investor and you started investing two years ago, you may think that you have continued investing continuously for about two years and it is definitely a long-term investment for you, so if you sell your investment after this time, it does not fall under long-term investment. If you sell Bitcoin after two years or a little more, it definitely falls under trading. You can do something like this that you started investing and intended to hold it for at least seven years, eight years, nine years or 10 years and move forward accordingly. Here you do not have to take any additional profession but try to move forward with as much as you can.

Since investment will depend on your income, first of all, you should observe how much money you have left at the end of the month and you do not have to invest all of that money, but you start with a little bit at the beginning and when you gradually progress, you will understand whether you can invest more or not and after understanding that situation, you can increase your investment amount.

To ensure the continuity of your investment and so that you do not have to sell your investment in a sudden danger, you can form a separate emergency fund for investment. When additional danger comes or financial needs arise, you will use that emergency fund and meet the financial needs, so that your investment will be safe and when your danger passes again and the remaining money comes in hand, you will refill your additional fund again. I hope your idea regarding investment is clear.

Bitcoin investment is not for people who can not afford to invest in it I mean it is not a bed of roses, one can do other things if they can not afford Bitcoin investment.

If you think about it seriously, everything will seem difficult, if a student can save his tiffin money and invest in Bitcoin, if a student can invest the remaining money in Bitcoin after paying tuition and meeting his education expenses, and if a low-income person can buy Bitcoin regularly every week with a certain amount of money after meeting all his needs, then why do you say that investment is not for everyone. People can do anything if they try, today a person is unemployed but if he goes out and tries to work, then he will definitely get a job and he will be able to slowly move forward on the path to fulfilling his dreams. Remove laziness from life and you will see that life is becoming much more beautiful and all plans are being implemented.

Sure.  There can be various sources of income that come into play at different times of life for people, and if in the end their income and expenses situation causes them to conclude that they have a certain level of discretionary income for a certain period of time, then they can use that to calculate if they have enough funds to buy bitcoin, if they have uncertainties in their abilities to project out their income and expenses, they might feel greater levels of discomfort in regards to their abilities to invest into bitcoin until such time as they can get better clarity (or assurances) in regards to their income and/or expenses.

To the measure that you are making extra funds in a way that it can be invested and not only when with a job that is  earning you income but regardless of what you earn there must be a percent you can scoop aside for investment if you are interested, willing and comprehend the importance of investment.

Bitcoin is divisible and with this it means every one can buy with what they have as discretionary funds out of what has been spend on necessary stuffs. The problem with some people that they continue to waste time and not invest is wanting to start investing big when they could have started with the little at hand.

In DCA investment method, an investor can start with a small amount of money and later he can increase the investment amount based on his income and the remaining amount at the end of the month, but another important thing in this case is whether the investment is long-term or not. In many cases, it happens that they start investing and when they see a small profit, they sell it but it does not fall into the investment. Investment should be done seriously so that they do not have to stop in the middle and keep an emergency fund ready so that the investment does not have to be sold (which I have already discussed).
What I mean is that the investment amount is not a problem if it is small, but the important thing is that the investment can be continued year after year.

[Finebone]

Those greedy traders think that short term trading will make them rich in a short time compared to long term accumulation strategies but they are proven wrong.

It's not just greed that pushes most people into trading, sometimes it is who introduce them into this digital space. They give them that impression that it is the best way to get rich, even with little knowledge on it, not knowing that you can only grow rich through Bitcoin investment, but after some continuous losing, that's when they start having a rethink.
What I have come to understand overtime is that any wealth that comes overnight can hardly be sustained, like wealth built overtime.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I believe this is inherent in each of us. Even if someone has a substantial income if they don't have the courage to start it will be very difficult to increase their income because they certainly won't accept losses in investing. Therefore I dare say that all of these factors are inherent in each of us.

If someone has lump sums and also regular income then they have various options regarding how to get started investing in bitcoin, whether they front-load their investment or if the drag out their investment over several months or even years - depending on how much capital that they might have available - yet they still might not have much if any guarantees regarding bitcoin short-term price performance - even though historically bitcoin's spot price has tended to spend a vast majority of its time at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA, yet even that is not guaranteed.

So the cost per BTC could end up varying quite a bit for someone who is still in his first full cycle (4-years) of bitcoin accumulation, whether he ended up buying on dips or just buying persistently and consistently at any price.

At the same time, if someone ends up investing fairly consistently over a whole 4 year period then quite likely his costs per BTC will end up averaging out somewhere in the ballpark of the 200-WMA.. and yeah of course, there are no guarantees, which is part of the reason why it is frequently said not to invest anymore than you can afford to lose and to figure out your position size in accordance with what you believe might be the various up and down possibilities while at the same time recognizing that whatever you believe is not guaranteed to play out.

At the same time any person who might have some challenges in regards to ongoingly generating discretionary income, including that he does not tend to have access to lump sum amounts of funds and/or lump sum amounts rarely end up coming to him... So then those kinds of people, which may even be a fairly large percentage of people who have difficulties in generating 10% of their income to be discretionary income, and sometimes they are in such position due to difficulties in finding reasonably paid work and other times they might be in such position due to spending choices.

In any event the folks who tend to generate low discretionary income will only have the option to build their bitcoin from that discretionary income as it is coming in and to make sure that they figure out a balance that works out for themselves in terms of their aggressiveness and their abilities to make progress - such as trying to get to a point where they are actually able to invest 10% of their income into bitcoin... that would be good, yet surely there are likely a lot of challenges for some folks and moreso from the low income persons who have difficulties bringing their discretionary income up to such levels.

If someone has the potential even though they are constrained by income but still want to think about how to get money to be able to invest either in Gold or accumulate a lot of BTC because in my opinion investing is not only by collecting Bitcoin alone but by having Gold can also be considered an investment so that each person's thoughts remain different between those who have potential and those who only think about it without doing activities that can lead to getting money with the aim of having assets for the future for that person, the point is all matters regarding increasing income are the same for each individual regardless of what activities they do.

We are not talking about gold in this thread.  If you come to bitcoin and you already have gold (and/or other assets) you would need to consider whether or not to reallocate any of that into bitcoin or not.  If you had already been in bitcoin and cash and you have no gold or other assets, then there might be times (especially after you build up the bitcoin and/or cash up to levels that you believe to trigger potential needs to diversify) you might consider the extent to which you might diversify into other assets such as gold.

I frequently have suggested not to put anymore than 10% of the size of your bitcoin holdings into gold, and even that might be too much, yet surely if you come to bitcoin and you already hold gold then you have to consider what adjustments to make, if any, based on where you are at in regards to your allocation.

So where you are at matters, and many times, in this thread we talk about situations in which guys might be new to investing and new to bitcoin, so they would built up their bitcoin from that point, which we tend to focus on bitcoin and cash in terms of the building up portion.  If you might have had building up your bitcoin and cash for 4-ish years or more, then you might see that you might have had been able to invest around 6 months of your expenses into bitcoin and also potentially built up your cash to similar or smaller levels. I consider diversification as a way to protect your wealth (and bitcoin) rather than as a way to grow it, even through sometimes diversification might end up involving both protection and growth from which other assets are chosen to diversify into.

Of course, if someone is coming to bitcoin and they already have various other assets then not only are they faced with potential decisions in regards to if they are going to continue to invest into those other assets (which largely adds up to a dilution to the amount that can be put into bitcoin), they also might be faced with potential decisions in regards to whether they might choose to reallocate some or even all of the other assets into bitcoin (or bitcoin and cash since that is the base of what we are talking about in this thread).

Those greedy traders think that short term trading will make them rich in a short time compared to long term accumulation strategies but they are proven wrong.

It's not just greed that pushes most people into trading, sometimes it is who introduce them into this digital space. They give them that impression that it is the best way to get rich, even with little knowledge on it, not knowing that you can only grow rich through Bitcoin investment, but after some continuous losing, that's when they start having a rethink.
What I have come to understand overtime is that any wealth that comes overnight can hardly be sustained, like wealth built overtime.

Sure it can sometimes take time to either learn good habits or to unlearn some bad habits that might have had been part of early exposure to ideas, whether we are referring to bitcoin investing and/or cashflow management and/or other related topics.. and yes a lot of folks get sucked into trading and/or shitcoins and even considerations of other assets that may or may not be inferior, yet may also play out as distractions in regards to figuring out how much (if any) time, energy and value to allocate to bitcoin..

[Arenga pinnata]

Sure it can sometimes take time to either learn good habits or to unlearn some bad habits that might have had been part of early exposure to ideas, whether we are referring to bitcoin investing and/or cashflow management and/or other related topics.. and yes a lot of folks get sucked into trading and/or shitcoins and even considerations of other assets that may or may not be inferior, yet may also play out as distractions in regards to figuring out how much (if any) time, energy and value to allocate to bitcoin..

Well, that's the fact. In fact, most newcomers to the world of crypto initially learn about crypto through influencers who hype up a shitcoin, which often leads to losses for these beginners. And the pattern is usually that after they lose money, they start looking for something they can really trust, and when they seriously study it, they finally find the answer that only bitcoin is something they can trust. Even those who have tried trading, even by taking classes, will ultimately still think that trading only makes them more mentally stressed, but the results obtained are not worth the income they get from their actual jobs. However, the mental burden obtained from crypto trading can even be heavier than actual jobs in the real world, especially for those who trade in the futures market. Therefore, many ultimately switch to simply accumulating and holding Bitcoin. This is especially true for those who have witnessed its history, even if they don't fully understand the Bitcoin system itself. However, they certainly realize that when major companies or institutions begin competing to enter the Bitcoin space, it signals even to the average person that Bitcoin is indeed safer and that holding it for the long term is a better choice.

Because they can do it every time they get paid from their main job. Setting aside a few percent for the long term and the future, I think anyone who understands the importance of investing should do it. And actually, what I'm saying is also based partly on my personal experience.

[abaeze]

Those greedy traders think that short term trading will make them rich in a short time compared to long term accumulation strategies but they are proven wrong.

It's not just greed that pushes most people into trading, sometimes it is who introduce them into this digital space. They give them that impression that it is the best way to get rich, even with little knowledge on it, not knowing that you can only grow rich through Bitcoin investment, but after some continuous losing, that's when they start having a rethink.
What I have come to understand overtime is that any wealth that comes overnight can hardly be sustained, like wealth built overtime.

Those who invest solely on influencers, friends or YouTubers without their own ability and knowledge will not be able to make any long-term or short-term investments. Therefore, it is not right to blame trading alone without knowledge, creativity, discipline and patience. Real wealth is built over time, through patience and discipline. Experienced traders realize over time that wealth acquired overnight rarely lasts.

Therefore, they can make the right decisions in the long term or in the short term, and as a result, they become rich because of these decisions. And the wealth built in this way is more permanent.

[cyberninja2]

We are not talking about gold in this thread.  If you come to bitcoin and you already have gold (and/or other assets) you would need to consider whether or not to reallocate any of that into bitcoin or not.  If you had already been in bitcoin and cash and you have no gold or other assets, then there might be times (especially after you build up the bitcoin and/or cash up to levels that you believe to trigger potential needs to diversify) you might consider the extent to which you might diversify into other assets such as gold.

I frequently have suggested not to put anymore than 10% of the size of your bitcoin holdings into gold, and even that might be too much, yet surely if you come to bitcoin and you already hold gold then you have to consider what adjustments to make, if any, based on where you are at in regards to your allocation.

So where you are at matters, and many times, in this thread we talk about situations in which guys might be new to investing and new to bitcoin, so they would built up their bitcoin from that point, which we tend to focus on bitcoin and cash in terms of the building up portion.  If you might have had building up your bitcoin and cash for 4-ish years or more, then you might see that you might have had been able to invest around 6 months of your expenses into bitcoin and also potentially built up your cash to similar or smaller levels. I consider diversification as a way to protect your wealth (and bitcoin) rather than as a way to grow it, even through sometimes diversification might end up involving both protection and growth from which other assets are chosen to diversify into.

Of course, if someone is coming to bitcoin and they already have various other assets then not only are they faced with potential decisions in regards to if they are going to continue to invest into those other assets (which largely adds up to a dilution to the amount that can be put into bitcoin), they also might be faced with potential decisions in regards to whether they might choose to reallocate some or even all of the other assets into bitcoin (or bitcoin and cash since that is the base of what we are talking about in this thread).

I think many people have accumulated either Bitcoin or gold, so it's as if they're discussing gold even though we're discussing Bitcoin but this person is including gold. There's nothing wrong with that as sometimes people have both assets invested for their future but they don't seem to dare reveal this because this forum is more focused on Bitcoin. Currently it is clear that the price of Bitcoin is dropping quite drastically but the price of gold has continued to increase in recent days but only temporarily so we can conclude that currently if you have money saved it is very appropriate to accumulate Bitcoin for the next few years because the price to buy Bitcoin that occurs today is very appropriate for us to increase our collection of assets for our future level because the current price that occurs is in a very significant decline.

If you feel you own both assets I think this requires careful consideration. It's crucial to decide which one is worth holding given the potential returns. I think this can be very difficult to determine as making the wrong adjustment could result in the loss of both assets.

The first thing is of course to remain focused on Bitcoin and the cash we have in building our investment for a period of 5 or 8 years or more because basically it is very worthy to be prioritized otherwise I think this will not be able to build our investment even though we get a lot regarding cash but still in investing in Bitcoin must be complete with the goal of the investment we make will continue to increase in the time period as we want so that the development of the cash we have does not need to be involved in choosing to be verified again because we have protected our asset wealth before the increase we get.

This is one thing that will confuse someone who already has other assets so when it's time to start with Bitcoin of course it's like what you said about how someone makes decisions because basically they already have a lot of assets even though someone's assets are not in the form of Bitcoin but in the form of something else so it's very confusing for someone in terms of taking steps and decisions and I also think maybe someone will only do a partial investment in Bitcoin because their understanding and knowledge about investing in Bitcoin are certainly not fully owned so someone thinks not to fully invest in Bitcoin first if later they know it's worth it they will do the same as what big investors do in accumulating BTC for them to invest I think so.

[Cossyblack]

Most persons has faild to understand that investing in bitcoin is suppose to done within their discretionary income. Some persons even go extra mile to invest in bitcoin first immediately they receive their salary before they focus on settling their basic needs and expenses which is very wrong. Investing in bitcoin is suppose to be done  after you most have settled all your basic needs and expenses, then the leftover money is the money you should investing in bitcoin and not the other way round.

Most people don't 'realise that investing in bitcoin should be done within their discretionary income due to their lack of knowledge about bitcoin. They are people who earns high salaries but because they don't know how to manage their spendings they find it difficult to produce discretionary income to invest in bitcoin. My advice to such people is when meetings thier basic needs, they should ensure to prioritise only their essentials needs, so that they can have enough discretionary incomes to invest in bitcoin. This would ensure they don't lack adequate discretionary income to invests in bitcoin consistently and hold for 4-10 years.
 

[ruykeri]

Those who invest solely on influencers, friends or YouTubers without their own ability and knowledge will not be able to make any long-term or short-term investments. Therefore, it is not right to blame trading alone without knowledge, creativity, discipline and patience. Real wealth is built over time, through patience and discipline. Experienced traders realize over time that wealth acquired overnight rarely lasts.

Therefore, they can make the right decisions in the long term or in the short term, and as a result, they become rich because of these decisions. And the wealth built in this way is more permanent.

It is true that it is not right to buy Bitcoin by following influencers or YouTubers. Many people think like you that if you have knowledge and discipline, you can get rich by trading. But in reality, trading and investing are not the same thing. Trading is a high-risk game. So it is not right to glorify trading. Rather, the words trading should not be used in the case of Bitcoin. The sustainable path for beginners is to deposit with low risk, meaning to stack consistently, not trying to catch the timing. Many people increase their risk in the hope of quick profits, then lose everything with a slight mistake. So the goal should be a plan that can be carried out for years. Keeping a budget, keeping reserves, and not making decisions based on emotion.And in the case of investment, one's knowledge or ability basically means the ability to continue investing without wasting life.

[Dictator69]

I get the sense that you are struggling with your desire to get profits and to be able to cash out profits from your BTC in order to get more dollars from you bitcoin, yet if you really are accumulating BTC at a fairly low level (based on your income being low), then you probably would be better off to just figure out ways that you don't even think about selling any bitcoin for 10 years or more - perhaps even 15 years or more, and then when you get to 10 years of accumulating, you can reassess at that time if you need to keep accumulating BTC at the same rate or if you might be able to stop accumulating BTC or to change your intensity in BTC accumulation to perhaps only accumulate bitcoin on dips rather than all of the time.

I am ready to keep accumulating for 10 years and will hold them as long as I could. I have low income but compared to my location it is enough but to accumulate bitcoin I need more money, because I can't manage $100 per week to allocate in bitcoin. But I will keep accumulating as low as possible but won't stop. Investing in dips is a good idea and there is no harm in investing in dips, as well as all the time like whenever I will have money to invest. I might not be able to follow a strict DCA method like investing every week or every month but I will invest whenever I will have extra money left.

Are you even able to think about your bitcoin stash as a way to sustainably withdrawal rather than as a trade, which is getting in and then getting out?

You are having difficulties with this idea, and maybe you need to adjust your bitcoin investment level downward so that you are not so much thinking about short term (or one time) profits, and yeah, if you reduce your investment amount, then you re going to have fewer bitcoin (satoshis) later down the road, yet at the same time, you have to figure a balance that is not causing you to constantly ponder over cashing out some of it based on prices, whether the BTC price goes to $200k or $500k or whatever price.  You seem to have troubles with the idea of ongoingly buying bitcoin, and you transition into stopping buying and even more extreme selling BTC rather than ongoingly buying it.

This is really mind-blowing idea, which obviously I did not think of before and you are right, I first have to set the goals that I either want to make this investment a trade where I invest and go all out, or do DCA and then withdraw sustainably. I want to go with a sustainable withdrawal option.

I tend to allow full withdrawal in the dollar amount as long as the BTC spot price is at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA..and then to start to reduce the withdrawal rate if the BTC spot price is less than 25% higher than the 200-WMA, including even lower withdrawal rates if the BTC spot price goes below the 200-WMA.

I completely understand this point, and it really makes sense, nobody wants to withdraw from the capital they invested or while they are losing money. So, let's say if the price is lower than the 200 WMA, would you sell at all or not? I know I am not at that phase yet, I am on the first step and I should not focus more on the withdrawal, but somehow it is so relevant and informative. So I have another question, would you withdraw monthly or yearly? Let's say with $2 million, would you withdraw your 4% yearly or monthly? I totally understand the percentage to keep in mind while withdrawing, but the time is still unclear to me. Sorry if that is a bad question.

Also if you are in accumulation phase and you are expecting that it might even take you 15 years or more before you are able to start to cash out on some of your bitcoin, then you can project out various numbers that involve BTC price and how many BTC you have in order that you have some ideas where you expect to be in your bitcoin accumulation journey at various points in time and at various prices.. and your projections might overshoot or undershoot where you end up being, which is likely a justification for projecting out several scenarios such as: base case scenario, worse case scenario, best case scenario and perhaps some other scenarios (I personally like using Excel for this since once you create your base case scenario, then you can copy and paste to create alternative scenarios that just change some of the variables from the base case scenario).

I understood everything, and now I have a very clear idea of what I should do, and I am really grateful for your time and for your knowledge. I think no one would have given me this knowledge for free. You are a financial advisor and I really respect that. Now I have already calculated how much I want to make per month from sustainable withdrawal and even if before I said I am in the early phase and I should not be thinking about sustainable withdrawal ways now, but I was wrong.

If I don't know what I want in return, then I can't work for that. I want to get, let's say, $2k per month. I need to invest accordingly in bitcoin and I need to make my plan according to my monthly income and with my discretionary funds. Therefore sustainable withdrawal plan should be the first step and then we should move on to the next.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

This is one thing that will confuse someone who already has other assets so when it's time to start with Bitcoin of course it's like what you said about how someone makes decisions because basically they already have a lot of assets even though someone's assets are not in the form of Bitcoin but in the form of something else so it's very confusing for someone in terms of taking steps and decisions and I also think maybe someone will only do a partial investment in Bitcoin because their understanding and knowledge about investing in Bitcoin are certainly not fully owned so someone thinks not to fully invest in Bitcoin first if later they know it's worth it they will do the same as what big investors do in accumulating BTC for them to invest I think so.

My overall conclusion is that most people do not have any meaningful investments, and sure they might end up buying their house, and in the west, they might have some retirement program through their employment.. yet most people do not have investments beyond those two.

Accordingly, Let's stick with the example of a certain number of guys who might come to bitcoin and they have already built up various investment assets, and so when they come to bitcoin they could be faced with either keeping those other investments (and even continuing to contribute to them) or they could slowly or even rapidly divest from those assets.

So, if the guys are coming to bitcoin with an intention of increasing their exposure to bitcoin they have a variety of options, yet in their initial stages of coming to bitcoin they might be reluctant to sell other investments and to put that value into bitcoin rather than potentially working towards getting their allocation of bitcoin up to a point that they might want to get it, whether they want to get to somewhere between 5% to 25% of their quasi-liquid allocation into bitcoin or if they might have some other target number.

Let's go back to the example of a guy in his mid-30s who comes to bitcoin and he has a $30k income, and who had been investing $100 per week for the past 10 years.  In this example the guy had already been investing right around 15% of his income.  So right now if his non-bitcoin investment portfolio is $45k, then maybe if he wants his bitcoin holdings to get to be 15% of his already existing $45k portfolio, then that would be a target of $6.75k based on current valuations.  Maybe he could just divert all of his investing into bitcoin and discontinue investing into his non-bitcoin holdings until maybe after he reaches his 15% goal. If the guy invests at $100 per week, it would take him 67.5 weeks to reach $6.75k invested into bitcoin.  He could have reasons for keeping his other investments.. Maybe they have tax deferral status or they have employer matching contributions, yet if he considers going beyond his earlier investment budget of $100 per week (or 15%) he might put unwanted stress on his cashflows.. and surely these are choices that guys may end up making if they see that they have options.  And, their choices might relate to other aspects of their lives.  This guy might have had already been considering that he might have to continue to work until he is in his 60s (another 25 years), yet he might also consider that with bitcoin investing possibilities that maybe he could cut down his timeline to keep working to merely another 15 years or so.

Are you even able to think about your bitcoin stash as a way to sustainably withdrawal rather than as a trade, which is getting in and then getting out?

You are having difficulties with this idea, and maybe you need to adjust your bitcoin investment level downward so that you are not so much thinking about short term (or one time) profits, and yeah, if you reduce your investment amount, then you re going to have fewer bitcoin (satoshis) later down the road, yet at the same time, you have to figure a balance that is not causing you to constantly ponder over cashing out some of it based on prices, whether the BTC price goes to $200k or $500k or whatever price.  You seem to have troubles with the idea of ongoingly buying bitcoin, and you transition into stopping buying and even more extreme selling BTC rather than ongoingly buying it.

This is really mind-blowing idea, which obviously I did not think of before and you are right, I first have to set the goals that I either want to make this investment a trade where I invest and go all out, or do DCA and then withdraw sustainably. I want to go with a sustainable withdrawal option.

To me it seems that guys would be starting price based sustainable withdrawal once they reach a large enough stash of bitcoin, and if you are investing in bitcoin sporadically, I have troubles thinking how you might be able to reach that in less than 10 years.

And, it does not matter so much about whether you are able to invest $100, $10 or some other level per week, yet you can still measure to see how much of your income you are putting into bitcoin, so if you end up putting 10% into bitcoin it is going to take nearly 10 years to get to 1 years income put into bitcoin.  On the other hand if you were to figure out how to put 25% into bitcoin, then after 4 years you would have had put 1 whole year of your income into bitcoin.  Surely 10% is much more practical and doable as compared with 25%, yet some guys may well be investing way less than 10% yet expecting results as if they had been investing 25%.  So, even though bitcoin remains a great investment, there are needs for guys to be realistic in regards to how much they are putting in relative to their income (and their expected standards of living), and even if bitcoin might appreciate well, a guy who put more than his annual income over several years would end up doing way better than a guy who might have put in only a few months of his annual income into his bitcoin investment.

We have to attempt to be realistic about both the amount we are putting in and our BTC performance expectations.. which also can be addressed by doing our own calculations and making sure that our calculations are based on the realities of what we are putting in rather than fantasies.. that also include problems if we are withdrawing at various points along the way.. and we end up fucking up our building of our bitcoin stash and also fucking up the way that the investment might have tendencies to compound upon itself, especially after a couple of cycles or more.

I tend to allow full withdrawal in the dollar amount as long as the BTC spot price is at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA..and then to start to reduce the withdrawal rate if the BTC spot price is less than 25% higher than the 200-WMA, including even lower withdrawal rates if the BTC spot price goes below the 200-WMA.

I completely understand this point, and it really makes sense, nobody wants to withdraw from the capital they invested or while they are losing money. So, let's say if the price is lower than the 200 WMA, would you sell at all or not?

I am starting from the premise of a guy who had already reached overaccumulation status.  So, he likely would have a cushion between how much bitcoin he holds and how much he is selling, so the reductions in the amounts are meant to account for an ability to be sustained.. but yeah, a guy who is worried about his withdrawal no longer being sustainable or that his withdrawals or overly depleting his holdings, then he might choose to withdraw at an even lower rate or to discontinue withdrawals during those kinds of times.

Part of the problem of reducing withdrawals is that there is an assumption that the guy is no longer working, so he may have already become reliant on his bitcoin as a regular income source to the extent that he does not have other income sources.

Let's take the example of the guy with a $30k income and he had been accumulating bitcoin at $100 per week for 10 years (right around 17% of his income) from January 2016 to present.  He had invested $53k over those 10 years and he had accumulated 15.3 BTC.  His target was to be able to quit his job once he would be able to sustain an income of $80k per year off of his income, and he looks at the chart, and he sees right now, 13.8102 would be enough to sustain an income of $80k per year... and so he has nearly 1.5 BTC  extra.  He could start right now with the extra BTC or he could withdraw at a reduced rate.  He could wait a few months an then the same quantity of BTC would support a higher withdrawal amount in terms of dollars.

The punchline still relates to guys having to do their own calculations to make sure that they are comfortable and that they are not withdrawing in such a way that their withdrawal rate is not sustainable... so yeah, guys should not be overly withdrawing from their stash to knock themselves out of overaccumulation status, and personally, I think that bitcoin allows for quite aggressive withdrawal rates, yet guys have to still make sure that they don't fuck it up buy overly withdrawing, so they may well feel better withdrawing at a lower rate or even discontinuing withdrawals for a period of time until they feel that their chosen withdrawal rate is sustainable.

Below is a description of the reductions of the withdrawal rate (from the sustainable withdrawal website), yet guys are responsible for their own ways of dealing with the matter of finding what  they consider to be sustainable withdrawal in terms of if they agree with my numbers or if they believe other numbers would work better for them:

>>>>>>>>>When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,

A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget.<<<<<<<<<

I know I am not at that phase yet,

Yes... We are getting a bit ahead of ourselves, even though it does not hurt to look ahead, there still tends to be a need to build up the bitcoin holdings first before those kinds of sustainable withdrawal matters would start to become applicable... and it is likely better to be dealing with your actual numbers of where you are at rather than where you might be, unless you happen to be getting close to your numbers, then at least it is more realistic that you are close to getting there.

Even though I have not updated my fuck you status chart recently, it seems relevant to show that lower and lower amounts of BTC is required to support certain dollar income levels.

I personally anticipate that there are decently good probabilities that in 10 years, less than 1 BTC stash would support an $80k per year job and the ability to give 7% per year raises in the dollar level... and sure of course, also we have to consider the role of ongoing dollar debasement in our calculations, too.

I am on the first step and I should not focus more on the withdrawal, but somehow it is so relevant and informative. So I have another question, would you withdraw monthly or yearly? Let's say with $2 million, would you withdraw your 4% yearly or monthly? I totally understand the percentage to keep in mind while withdrawing, but the time is still unclear to me. Sorry if that is a bad question.

Its optional how to choose withdrawal, and my tool even suggests ways to withdraw in advance based on BTC prices going higher than the 200 WMA.

>>>>>>•Advanced Withdrawal (No. Months)

This output is calculated based on if the BTC spot price is higher than the 200 WMA. Accordingly:

A. if the BTC spot price is between 33% and 66% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + an additional month.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 66% and 100% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 3 additional months.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 100% and 200% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 5 additional months.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 200% and 400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 11 additional months.
E. if the BTC spot price is between 400% and 650% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 23 additional months.
F. if the BTC spot price is between 650% and 900% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 35 additional months.
G. if the BTC spot price is between 900% and 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 47 additional months.
H. if the BTC spot price is greater than 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for the current month + 59 additional months.<<<<<<<

But, yeah it is quite possible that BTC is not going to be reaching thos high numbers anymore... so adjustments could be made to the advance withdrawal ideas.
 

Also if you are in accumulation phase and you are expecting that it might even take you 15 years or more before you are able to start to cash out on some of your bitcoin, then you can project out various numbers that involve BTC price and how many BTC you have in order that you have some ideas where you expect to be in your bitcoin accumulation journey at various points in time and at various prices.. and your projections might overshoot or undershoot where you end up being, which is likely a justification for projecting out several scenarios such as: base case scenario, worse case scenario, best case scenario and perhaps some other scenarios (I personally like using Excel for this since once you create your base case scenario, then you can copy and paste to create alternative scenarios that just change some of the variables from the base case scenario).

I understood everything, and now I have a very clear idea of what I should do, and I am really grateful for your time and for your knowledge. I think no one would have given me this knowledge for free. You are a financial advisor and I really respect that. Now I have already calculated how much I want to make per month from sustainable withdrawal and even if before I said I am in the early phase and I should not be thinking about sustainable withdrawal ways now, but I was wrong.

It is good to have some ideas regarding where you want to go, yet you still have to take concrete actions to get there (or work towards getting there).. and yeah, some of the numbers might change along the way.. regarding how many bitcoin you need and/or how many you had accumulated and even ups and downs of your own finances and/or your abilities to stay focused on your goals.. since it still seems to me that you have inclinations to sell or to try to trade rather than staying focused on ongoing accumulation through buying.. but yeah, the more you practice, then hopefully you find ways to make your bitcoin accumulation work for you so that you are ongoingly building your stash.

In my sustainable withdrawal thread I talk about my ideas in regards to both price-based sustainable withdrawal and time-based sustainable withdrawal.

If I don't know what I want in return, then I can't work for that. I want to get, let's say, $2k per month. I need to invest accordingly in bitcoin and I need to make my plan according to my monthly income and with my discretionary funds. Therefore sustainable withdrawal plan should be the first step and then we should move on to the next.

It seems to me that right now to be able to sustainably withdraw $2k per month, then you would need to have at least 4.15 bitcoin, so perhaps in 10 years you would need less than 1 BTC.. Maybe even in the ballpark of less than 0.5 BTC... yet it can be difficult to project that far ahead with precision, which I think is part of the reason that guys tend to want to shoot to accumulate more than they believe that they are going to need so that they might have a bit of a cushion when it comes time to start to enter into something like sustainable withdrawal.

[bitmover]

It seems to me that right now to be able to sustainably withdraw $2k per month, then you would need to have at least 4.15 bitcoin, so perhaps in 10 years you would need less than 1 BTC.. Maybe even in the ballpark of less than 0.5 BTC... yet it can be difficult to project that far ahead with precision, which I think is part of the reason that guys tend to want to shoot to accumulate more than they believe that they are going to need so that they might have a bit of a cushion when it comes time to start to enter into something like sustainable withdrawal.

I am impressed that we are still above 200wma. And the tool still suggests to withdrawal 1 month in advance.

I had withdrawal several months in advance when we were above 110k. I feel good now, and I wont sell any in the current price. I am thinking about buying a few more btc (i bought gold with the btc i sold, maybe I should move back a little bit now)8

[B2Z]

Those who invest solely on influencers, friends or YouTubers without their own ability and knowledge will not be able to make any long-term or short-term investments. Therefore, it is not right to blame trading alone without knowledge, creativity, discipline and patience. Real wealth is built over time, through patience and discipline. Experienced traders realize over time that wealth acquired overnight rarely lasts.

Therefore, they can make the right decisions in the long term or in the short term, and as a result, they become rich because of these decisions. And the wealth built in this way is more permanent.

It is true that it is not right to buy Bitcoin by following influencers or YouTubers. Many people think like you that if you have knowledge and discipline, you can get rich by trading. But in reality, trading and investing are not the same thing. Trading is a high-risk game. So it is not right to glorify trading. Rather, the words trading should not be used in the case of Bitcoin. The sustainable path for beginners is to deposit with low risk, meaning to stack consistently, not trying to catch the timing. Many people increase their risk in the hope of quick profits, then lose everything with a slight mistake. So the goal should be a plan that can be carried out for years. Keeping a budget, keeping reserves, and not making decisions based on emotion.And in the case of investment, one's knowledge or ability basically means the ability to continue investing without wasting life.

If we think that investment-related knowledge means observing our charts, observing candles, then we need to get out of this idea because knowledge means understanding your income, understanding your expenses, and finding the amount of money left, making decisions accordingly, building an emergency fund, being patient, having faith, etc. If you want to invest in a long-term plan but you have no control over your expenses based on your income, then how is it possible that you will continue to invest continuously for a long time.

Another important thing here is whether the amount of money you have decided to invest continuously will be a pressure for you in the future because when it will be a pressure for you in the future and when you have no alternative thoughts, then it will be difficult to hold your investment. I think it is more important to hold Bitcoin for a long time than to buy Bitcoin with a relatively large amount of money continuously, so use a small amount of money continuously and still make your investment long-term and protect your investment from sudden sales. 

Emergency funds are important in investing and there is no way to skip them, why is an emergency fund necessary? Because people's dangers or financial needs come suddenly, so if this preparation is not taken in advance, then it can affect the investment, so you should be careful in advance and decide to form an emergency fund.

[Sim_card]

Another important thing here is whether the amount of money you have decided to invest continuously will be a pressure for you in the future because when it will be a pressure for you in the future and when you have no alternative thoughts, then it will be difficult to hold your investment . I think it is more important to hold Bitcoin for a long time than to buy Bitcoin with a relatively large amount of money continuously, so use a small amount of money continuously and still make your investment long-term and protect your investment from sudden sales. 

You can use any amount of money to invest in bitcoin bitcoin with DCA be it large or small amount of money provided that it's your discretionary income. It's not a must that you must use little amount of money to invest in bitcoin continuously before you will succeed or doing the right thing.

Bitcoin investment is open to both the rich and the poor likewise, the DCA accumulation strategy too. Every investor needs to accumulate bitcoin based on the size of his discretionary income. If you have a small discretionary income, DCA within your discretionary income and if a rich guy has a large discretionary income, he should also DCA with large amount from his discretionary income because the main goal is to accumulate as many bitcoin as possible overtime.

Someone with a large discretionary income has the advantage to accumulate more bitcoin and reach his accumulation target faster by buying aggressively and front loading his bitcoin portfolio because he has the flexibility to mix all three strategies during his accumulation journey compared to an investor with small discretionary income. It's when you buy bitcoin from money that's not your discretionary income is when you will not be able to hodli for long term because you will sell when your needs arises.

[Loyang]

If we think that investment-related knowledge means observing our charts, observing candles, then we need to get out of this idea because knowledge means understanding your income, understanding your expenses, and finding the amount of money left, making decisions accordingly, building an emergency fund, being patient, having faith, etc. If you want to invest in a long-term plan but you have no control over your expenses based on your income, then how is it possible that you will continue to invest continuously for a long time.

Another important thing here is whether the amount of money you have decided to invest continuously will be a pressure for you in the future because when it will be a pressure for you in the future and when you have no alternative thoughts, then it will be difficult to hold your investment. I think it is more important to hold Bitcoin for a long time than to buy Bitcoin with a relatively large amount of money continuously, so use a small amount of money continuously and still make your investment long-term and protect your investment from sudden sales. 

Emergency funds are important in investing and there is no way to skip them, why is an emergency fund necessary? Because people's dangers or financial needs come suddenly, so if this preparation is not taken in advance, then it can affect the investment, so you should be careful in advance and decide to form an emergency fund.

Bitcoin knowledge means you need to know everything related to Bitcoin. For example, what is Bitcoin, why is the price of Bitcoin increasing or decreasing, what kind of network is Bitcoin related to and how Bitcoin works, etc. But an investor does not need to know so much in the first place. If a person is aware of the basic knowledge related to Bitcoin, if he is able to find a reasonable income in a month or week and if he is able to build trust in Bitcoin, then he can invest. He can gain knowledge about everything by keeping the investment going. Delaying investment for the sake of gaining knowledge will never be the right decision.

We need to take both aspects very seriously. Just as it is necessary to continue buying continuously, it is also necessary to hold it in the long term. If your portfolio target is $50,000, if you buy $1,000 worth of Bitcoin and then don't buy any more, it won't be the right decision for you. Who invests how much depends entirely on their financial situation. Many have very good financial situations and many have very bad financial situations, so a person needs to buy based on their financial situation.

[JayJuanGee]

It seems to me that right now to be able to sustainably withdraw $2k per month, then you would need to have at least 4.15 bitcoin, so perhaps in 10 years you would need less than 1 BTC.. Maybe even in the ballpark of less than 0.5 BTC... yet it can be difficult to project that far ahead with precision, which I think is part of the reason that guys tend to want to shoot to accumulate more than they believe that they are going to need so that they might have a bit of a cushion when it comes time to start to enter into something like sustainable withdrawal.

I am impressed that we are still above 200wma. And the tool still suggests to withdrawal 1 month in advance.

I had withdrawal several months in advance when we were above 110k. I feel good now, and I wont sell any in the current price. I am thinking about buying a few more btc (i bought gold with the btc i sold, maybe I should move back a little bit now)8

You likely realize that I had been largely ball-parking ideas about what might be tolerated thresholds, which also likely relates back to guys who are using the tool in an attempt for sustainable withdrawal, then they may well be wanting to attempt to make sure that they get their money to go as far as they can get it to go... especially if they happen to be down to ONLY having bitcoin and cash in terms of their total investment portfolio (or their income sources for guys who had almost completely stopped working and receiving income from work).

So yeah, right now, the spot price is in the 33% to 66% above the 200-WMA range.. which it seems to be better to withdraw 2 months (1 month current and an additional month) rather than taking reduced withdrawals if the BTC price goes below 25% above the 200-WMA or even if it gets to the 200-WMA or lower, then it seems more of a time for buying rather than selling, even though if a person is already in their sustainable withdrawal phase, they might not have any other income sources, and they  might not have had withdrawn some months in advance during the times that the BTC price was substantially higher than the 200-WMA.. .. I cannot recall whether in this cycle if we had some temporary times in the 200% to 400% higher than the 200-WMA which would have had allowed withdrawing 11 months in advance, even though we did have a lot of times that the BTC price was in the 100% to 200% above the 200-WMA, which would have had allowed withdrawing 5 months in advance.