Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe?

[Semar Mesem]

When European countries planned to stop Russia's attack on Ukraine, it turned out to be difficult, the number of European countries that depended heavily on Russian gas caused differences of opinion in Europe, of course Europe knew that if it was too aggressive against Russia, the first thing to do was the gas supply would stop and there will be a lot of loss to be experienced.

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[barbara44]

We do not really "need" gas, consider what we are using gas for an what it can't be replaced with? I mean if you are going to tell me just for heating, then we can heat ourselves using electricity which could be coming from renewable energy, solved the biggest one. Can you name me one thing in all of the world that gas is required and there is no alternative at all?

It's obvious that it is important, but if you are forced to find an alternative, which many nations are right now, then we could find alternatives that will make Russia a mute point. All the small "must" stuff could be used with gas coming from some other nation and Russia will starve in that case and repent.

[dezoel]

This could be over soon as well, we are missing that out. I mean Russia needs money for their gas, if they can't sell gas to Europe then they will have to sell to other nations and let's be honest they would not be able to pay as much as Europe does, only china could and they would only do that to gain power over Russia in that partnership.

So, I am sure that Russia wants to go back to old days and sell gas to Europe at premium levels for whatever currency they can get without any sanctions or trouble. Europe is living in one of the most expensive periods because of this issue as well, high inflation and all so I am guessing that both parties want this to be gone already.

[be.open]

This could be over soon as well, we are missing that out. I mean Russia needs money for their gas, if they can't sell gas to Europe then they will have to sell to other nations and let's be honest they would not be able to pay as much as Europe does, only china could and they would only do that to gain power over Russia in that partnership.

So, I am sure that Russia wants to go back to old days and sell gas to Europe at premium levels for whatever currency they can get without any sanctions or trouble. Europe is living in one of the most expensive periods because of this issue as well, high inflation and all so I am guessing that both parties want this to be gone already.

You are right and at the same time you are mistaken, I will explain why. Gazprom supplies gas to domestic consumers in Russia at a price of about $60 per thousand cubic meters, and this is not a subsidized price, but rather a benchmark for the lower limit of Gazprom's profitability. For Belarus, gas costs about x2 of the domestic price, for China, gas costs about x3 of the domestic price, for Europe last year, gas cost about x4 of the domestic price. Now look at the current spot price level at the hub in the Netherlands, which is x15 or higher from the domestic price. This is the price that Europe will pay and cry when buying gas from Gazprom, then cry again and pay again.

[tygeade]

Russia supplies gas in Europe about 40% and if Russia stops supplying gas to certain countries, the gas price in that country will certainly increase dramatically. With such large gas reserves, it seems that currently there is no country that can replace Russia. maybe in the near future some countries will have to pay for gas from russia in russian currency (ruble) because it is russia's retaliation against countries that impose economic sanctions on russia.

What we need to realize is that, Europe doesn't need to take ALL gas needs from some other nation, just drop the Russian one low enough to hurt their finances and that will be enough. Think about it, between the LNG they are getting, and the each passing year finding alternative sources, we are talking about finding a way to make it 50% lesser than what it is today, but a few years down the line and not today.

This means when that happens Russia would be making 50% less from gas and that is a big hit on their economy. When their economy is struck, they will not be living a happy life killing innocent people, they will be forced to find a solution for their economy as well.

[inthelongrun]

There will be alternatives but it will not happen that fast. It will be very costly too. There will be a lot of discussions to environmentalists and various stakeholders. There's geopolitical issues too that need resolutions like Algerian gas going Europe but most likely needs to pass thru Morocco.

The fact that Germany will be spending billions of dollars to fast-track their LNG terminals means it needs to be utilized for many years to come to cover its cost. I wonder what will be the future of Russia once Europe becomes free from its gas. More wars? Maybe more Russian aggression in order to salvage favorable economic deals? And NATO can freely move against Russia too.   

[be.open]

There will be alternatives but it will not happen that fast. It will be very costly too. There will be a lot of discussions to environmentalists and various stakeholders. There's geopolitical issues too that need resolutions like Algerian gas going Europe but most likely needs to pass thru Morocco.

The fact that Germany will be spending billions of dollars to fast-track their LNG terminals means it needs to be utilized for many years to come to cover its cost. I wonder what will be the future of Russia once Europe becomes free from its gas. More wars? Maybe more Russian aggression in order to salvage favorable economic deals? And NATO can freely move against Russia too.    

1. China. This is the most energy-deficient country in the world, China made its impressive economic breakthrough on cheap coal, the reserves of which are now severely depleted. China needs a lot of energy, much more than Germany, and Russia has a surplus. In January 2022, an agreement was reached on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline for 50 billion cubic meters per year (like Nord Stream 2). Also, LNG terminals have been actively built in the Far East for several years, with a focus on the Southeast Asian market. The Power of Siberia gas pipeline with a capacity of 38 billion cubic meters per year has been in operation since 2019.

2. Domestic market. For many years, Gazprom has been export-oriented, often to the detriment of domestic consumers. Russia is a huge country with a harsh climate and there is still great potential for gasification of private households. Recently, one of the branches of Nord Stream 2 was reoriented from Europe to gasification of the North-West of Russia (Karelia, etc).

Do not worry about Russia, it is much easier to deal with excess energy than with energy shortages. Europe's withdrawal from Russian gas would be a disaster for Russia in 2014, but not in 2022 - Russia has done a lot to diversify during this time. But what Europe has been doing all this time is not entirely clear to me.

[kapalmabur]

When European countries planned to stop Russia's attack on Ukraine, it turned out to be difficult, the number of European countries that depended heavily on Russian gas caused differences of opinion in Europe, of course Europe knew that if it was too aggressive against Russia, the first thing to do was the gas supply would stop and there will be a lot of loss to be experienced.

In this case I think it really benefits Russia and European countries can't just attack Russia.
looks like it's one of Russia's strategies and it's really effective,
regardless of what it is of course we all hope the war can end soon for the sake of humanity

[NotATether]

If they do reopen the coal plants then it will have to be temporarily, they cant use it long term. Think of all the work that was put in recently to protect the environment and now they will open up the coal plants? I guess its better than shortages and a cold winter however there needs to be a better alternative.

I don't see the coal plants opening just for that purpose.

Also I doubt that Russia would actually cut off gas exports unless there was a dramatic escalation in the war.

[yawars20]

I think you you analyzed the whole picture yet. The hypocritic media is showing as Russia is pushed toward wall but that's not the truth.
As the USA building grand allies forces, Russia was doing the same for last few decade. So they don' have to worry about losing any kind of contacts from Europe side at all.
Also the major allice of Russia have plenty of demand for both oil and gas.
So don't be delusional that Russia is suffering anything major. The have to take different methods to apply pressure on Russia to withdraw.

[Renampun]

Hungary and Slovakia say it will take several years to replace Russian oil without major damage to their economies because they are landlocked and cannot import oil by sea into ports, and are almost entirely reliant on Russian pipeline gas

a few days ago, the Hungarian and Slovak governments stated the above...

in fact, Europe has lived for years with Russian oil and gas so finding a replacement will take a lot of time and a lot of money. Russia's superiority in its oil and gas cannot be denied, the surrounding countries are already dependent on it so it is almost impossible to find a substitute for Russian oil and gas in the near future.

[Ozero]

Russia supplies gas in Europe about 40% and if Russia stops supplying gas to certain countries, the gas price in that country will certainly increase dramatically. With such large gas reserves, it seems that currently there is no country that can replace Russia. maybe in the near future some countries will have to pay for gas from russia in russian currency (ruble) because it is russia's retaliation against countries that impose economic sanctions on russia.

Russia unleashed a big war in Ukraine and began to blackmail the entire civilized world with oil and gas supplies, invasion of other European states and even nuclear weapons. The world has finally realized that appeasing the aggressor is not an option, and therefore united with Ukraine in order to defeat Russia militarily and economically. Yes, Europe is having a hard time right now. Europe has decided to abandon Russian oil and gas, but at the same time their traditional supply chains are being violated, and the price of them is temporarily increasing. But in the future, Russia will definitely lose. And taking into account the fact that the world is gradually switching to alternative energy sources, this will be a disaster for Russia.

[tyz]

Hungary and Slovakia say it will take several years to replace Russian oil without major damage to their economies because they are landlocked and cannot import oil by sea into ports, and are almost entirely reliant on Russian pipeline gas

a few days ago, the Hungarian and Slovak governments stated the above...

in fact, Europe has lived for years with Russian oil and gas so finding a replacement will take a lot of time and a lot of money. Russia's superiority in its oil and gas cannot be denied, the surrounding countries are already dependent on it so it is almost impossible to find a substitute for Russian oil and gas in the near future.

Yes, both countries are among the most dependent on Russian gas in Europe. But it does not have to last several years. Germany, for example, has reduced its gas dependence on Russia from 25% to 12% within a few months, with the goal of halving it again by winter.

[Sithara007]

Yes, both countries are among the most dependent on Russian gas in Europe. But it does not have to last several years. Germany, for example, has reduced its gas dependence on Russia from 25% to 12% within a few months, with the goal of halving it again by winter.

Germany has been purchasing super expensive LNG from Qatar and the United States and that is the reason why the share from Russia went down. But right now the demand is down, since it is summer season. The scenario won't be the same after 4-5 months. The underground gas storages are at all time low and in case Russia doesn't send gas to Germany, then half of the population will freeze to death by the end of this year. And trust me, Germany doesn't have enough LNG terminals to import the required amount of gas through tankers.

[galambo]

Germany has been purchasing super expensive LNG from Qatar and the United States and that is the reason why the share from Russia went down. But right now the demand is down, since it is summer season. The scenario won't be the same after 4-5 months. The underground gas storages are at all time low and in case Russia doesn't send gas to Germany, then half of the population will freeze to death by the end of this year. And trust me, Germany doesn't have enough LNG terminals to import the required amount of gas through tankers.

If we know these stats then defiantly German government must also be well aware of this fact that cutting trade of gas from Russia is just like a suicide. Between what the status of war now? Is Russia struck there or he is there now just to negotiate with west on his own terms. This war is not limited to Ukarine, as the whole world is feeling its financial impact now.

[DrBeer]

Russia supplies gas in Europe about 40% and if Russia stops supplying gas to certain countries, the gas price in that country will certainly increase dramatically. With such large gas reserves, it seems that currently there is no country that can replace Russia. maybe in the near future some countries will have to pay for gas from russia in russian currency (ruble) because it is russia's retaliation against countries that impose economic sanctions on russia.

There are several nuances here.
1. 40% is the volume that allows both industry and the residential sector (main consumers) to use gas "on a grand scale, without really thinking about saving. This is not the minimum required amount of gas, but with a good margin.
2. In the EU, thanks to the "efforts" of the Kremlin prostitutes, nuclear power plants were stopped, the electricity of which provided both industrial enterprises and heat in houses (yes, you can heat up not only with gas!).
3. There is a group of people in the EU who have a direct personal interest in gas supplies from Russia. No, they are not worried about providing European industry with gas, they are afraid of losing "bonuses" from the Kremlin, for lobbying sales of Russian gas.
4. As a result - The return of the nuclear power plant to operation, as well as the optimization of gas consumption, can significantly reduce gas consumption. Most likely it will not be the same 40%, but it will be a significant value - perhaps 20-30%. And this means that getting rid of dependence on bloody gas and oil will be easier than a gloomy picture is now being drawn.

[Sithara007]

There are several nuances here.
1. 40% is the volume that allows both industry and the residential sector (main consumers) to use gas "on a grand scale, without really thinking about saving. This is not the minimum required amount of gas, but with a good margin.
2. In the EU, thanks to the "efforts" of the Kremlin prostitutes, nuclear power plants were stopped, the electricity of which provided both industrial enterprises and heat in houses (yes, you can heat up not only with gas!).
3. There is a group of people in the EU who have a direct personal interest in gas supplies from Russia. No, they are not worried about providing European industry with gas, they are afraid of losing "bonuses" from the Kremlin, for lobbying sales of Russian gas.
4. As a result - The return of the nuclear power plant to operation, as well as the optimization of gas consumption, can significantly reduce gas consumption. Most likely it will not be the same 40%, but it will be a significant value - perhaps 20-30%. And this means that getting rid of dependence on bloody gas and oil will be easier than a gloomy picture is now being drawn.

1. 40% is the volume that allows German heavy industry to maintain it's output. If you reduce it to 35%, then some of the industries may need to shut down. And I am not sure about "grand scale". Even now natural gas has become so expensive that people are trying to use it as little as they can.

2. The ones that closed down nuclear power plants were from the Green Party. And anyone who is knowledgeable in the politics of Germany would understand that the Green Party is the most anti-Russian political force in Germany.

3. The same can be said about Qatar, Saudi.etc. Lobbying is not just restricted to Russia.

4. Try suggesting gas and electricity rationing to the citizens of European Union. Let's see how they react.

[be.open]

Yes, both countries are among the most dependent on Russian gas in Europe. But it does not have to last several years. Germany, for example, has reduced its gas dependence on Russia from 25% to 12% within a few months, with the goal of halving it again by winter.

Germany has been purchasing super expensive LNG from Qatar and the United States and that is the reason why the share from Russia went down. But right now the demand is down, since it is summer season. The scenario won't be the same after 4-5 months. The underground gas storages are at all time low and in case Russia doesn't send gas to Germany, then half of the population will freeze to death by the end of this year. And trust me, Germany doesn't have enough LNG terminals to import the required amount of gas through tankers.

To be precise, in Germany, the number of terminals for receiving liquefied natural gas is now zero. Currently, four terminals are being urgently built, the first should be commissioned at the end of 2022 or at the beginning of 2023.

[LogitechMouse]

I doubt there is somebody that can replace.
Russia is the main supplier of Gas worldwide and with what's happening, it seems that the price of oil will be higher that the usual. Africa doesn't have a lot of infrastructures only so maybe some countries might help them have some of it just to produce more gas but that isn't easy though.

I think the best solution for Europe is to find an alternative solution to it because right now, it seems that the Russia-Ukraine war will still go for months and it is affecting not only them but the whole world. I think Russia knows this already from the start that is why they aren't afraid to have a war against other countries like Ukraine. They know that sanctions will be imposed and that sanctions that imposed to them will have a negative to effect to the countries who imposed it.

[Zilon]

Renewable energy should just be a better alternative other than stretching the African nations that don't have enough for their own sustainability. So far in terms of oil production, availability and supplies Russians cannot be replaced the only way to avoid direct deals with Russian oil is to source for alternative sources like Renewable energy or energy from waste products since electricity will be too expensive