Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe?

[Sithara007]

^^^ According to the International Energy Agency, Russia earnt more than $20 billion per month so far in 2022 from their fossil fuel exports. Here is the link:

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russia-is-earning-20-billion-per-month-in-oil-sales-as-higher-crude-prices-lift-export-revenue-50-says-iea/articleshow/91525171.cms

Now do you want to say that the IEA is a proxy of Russia? I am not sure whether that will work. On top of that, some of the experts have suggested that a few shipments to China and India have occurred under the radar and these are not tracked by the IEA. Anyway, from what I could see business goes on as usual in Russia. Back in February, Brandon and his cronies were predicting a complete economic meltdown in two weeks time.

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[DrBeer]

This is not true, stop spreading false information. The real price of Russia's oil contracts with India and China is unknown to you, because this is classified commercial information. According to rumors from sources close to reliable, it is known that the maximum discount for Ural oil was 30-35% in the spring and the average transaction price as of April 1 was $80.5 per barrel (Russia's budget for 2022 was drawn up at the rate of $44.2 per barrel).

Here in India, the oil companies are reporting that they are paying somewhere around $70 to $80 per barrel for Russian crude oil, which would indicate a discount of $30 to $40 per barrel. But a part of this discount is eaten up by higher freight charges and insurance cost. What is attractive here is the fact that payments are being made either in Indian Rupee or the UAE Dirham, which is convenient for India. Even after all the additional expenses, the Indian refineries are in net profit of at least $20 per barrel, which translates to tens of millions of USD per shipment from Russia.

Agree with you completely! You are telling the truth, everything is correct. But this is contracted oil under old contracts. Now, in connection with the refusal of the EU to buy oil in a terrorist country, these volumes are bought out by some countries at a price of about $40 per barrel. And this is also true! So don't worry, everything in your data is correct. And soon India will improve its situation even more, you will buy oil from the Kremlin for 10 dollars, they will still have nowhere to put it, and nowhere to store it! Well, the status of Russia as a terrorist country and a pariah country will give you unique discounts

[be.open]

This is not true, stop spreading false information. The real price of Russia's oil contracts with India and China is unknown to you, because this is classified commercial information. According to rumors from sources close to reliable, it is known that the maximum discount for Ural oil was 30-35% in the spring and the average transaction price as of April 1 was $80.5 per barrel (Russia's budget for 2022 was drawn up at the rate of $44.2 per barrel).

Here in India, the oil companies are reporting that they are paying somewhere around $70 to $80 per barrel for Russian crude oil, which would indicate a discount of $30 to $40 per barrel. But a part of this discount is eaten up by higher freight charges and insurance cost. What is attractive here is the fact that payments are being made either in Indian Rupee or the UAE Dirham, which is convenient for India. Even after all the additional expenses, the Indian refineries are in net profit of at least $20 per barrel, which translates to tens of millions of USD per shipment from Russia.

Agree with you completely! You are telling the truth, everything is correct. But this is contracted oil under old contracts. Now, in connection with the refusal of the EU to buy oil in a terrorist country, these volumes are bought out by some countries at a price of about $40 per barrel. And this is also true! So don't worry, everything in your data is correct. And soon India will improve its situation even more, you will buy oil from the Kremlin for 10 dollars, they will still have nowhere to put it, and nowhere to store it! Well, the status of Russia as a terrorist country and a pariah country will give you unique discounts

You are lying.

[Lambe Ndumble]

Gas becomes a Russian political force to make Europe unable to do much, Russia understands that to make a gas pipeline it takes a large cost and a long time, even very difficult to find gas reserves because global gas consumption continues to increase.

[DrBeer]

This is how the beginning of the decline of the Russian under-empire looks like!

In June 2022, supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to Europe exceeded Gazprom's exports to the region. This was announced on Twitter by the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol.

"Russia's recent sharp cuts in natural gas supplies to the EU have resulted in this being the first month in history that the EU is importing more gas via LNG from the US than via pipeline from Russia," Birol wrote.

He added that the EU needs to make efforts to reduce domestic demand for gas and prepare for a harsh winter.

Read more on RBC:
https://www.rbc.ru/business/01/07/2022/62be8b379a7947572d661d5e

You are lying

No, you are constantly carrying the slogans of the Kremlin propaganda. And that's a total lie
You spent 24 hours to find an article that says something completely different, and you are trying to present it as proof that you are right No need to twist the situation and manipulate the information again. Once again, I repeat for you - China (for sure) and very likely India (I can’t check, but I’m sure that it did the same in this situation), they buy out EXTRA oil at a dumping price, which now does not enter the EU in the same volumes. Chinese brokers are voicing a price of about $40 per barrel. Like it or not, it's a fact! Listen less to the Kremlin's propaganda, and spread it less - this is information garbage!

[be.open]

You are lying

No, you are constantly carrying the slogans of the Kremlin propaganda. And that's a total lie
You spent 24 hours to find an article that says something completely different, and you are trying to present it as proof that you are right No need to twist the situation and manipulate the information again. Once again, I repeat for you - China (for sure) and very likely India (I can’t check, but I’m sure that it did the same in this situation), they buy out EXTRA oil at a dumping price, which now does not enter the EU in the same volumes. Chinese brokers are voicing a price of about $40 per barrel. Like it or not, it's a fact! Listen less to the Kremlin's propaganda, and spread it less - this is information garbage!

This is not true, and in the link I provided above there is a price chart for Russian Ural oil. Your unsubstantiated statements are groundless, take the trouble to provide a prooflink or stop spreading deliberately false information on the forum.

[pooya87]

In June 2022, supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to Europe exceeded Gazprom's exports to the region. This was announced on Twitter by the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol.

US increased the exports to EU by a little bit since it is summer and they don't need it and Russia cut the supply to EU by so much that EU is mostly starved for gas even though it is still summer. In other words the important part that you didn't mention here is that EU's need for gas is not met by US supply. Not to mention that the recent explosion in the biggest LNG export facility in Texas reduced that export which could last for at least 6 months.

Here is a chart:

[Pomogator]

^^^ According to the International Energy Agency, Russia earnt more than $20 billion per month so far in 2022 from their fossil fuel exports. Here is the link:

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russia-is-earning-20-billion-per-month-in-oil-sales-as-higher-crude-prices-lift-export-revenue-50-says-iea/articleshow/91525171.cms

Now do you want to say that the IEA is a proxy of Russia? I am not sure whether that will work. On top of that, some of the experts have suggested that a few shipments to China and India have occurred under the radar and these are not tracked by the IEA. Anyway, from what I could see business goes on as usual in Russia. Back in February, Brandon and his cronies were predicting a complete economic meltdown in two weeks time.

This situation has allowed Russia to redirect the course of its fuel trade towards India and China. Of course, Russia sells this oil at a big discount. Gas sales to Europe continue, and soaring energy prices equalize this difference, perhaps even increase Russia's profits.

[laredo7mm]

No, you are constantly carrying the slogans of the Kremlin propaganda. And that's a total lie
You spent 24 hours to find an article that says something completely different, and you are trying to present it as proof that you are right

So we need to trust BBC news like the propaganda media of the west! Come on don't try to show us whom to trust and whom not to. We have seen this before how western media spread fake news and fact. I am not saying Russian media is 100% honest in these but I do not trust western media also. There is some different news that doesn't make all of the western news to be 100% accurate.

[81coin]

No, you are constantly carrying the slogans of the Kremlin propaganda. And that's a total lie
You spent 24 hours to find an article that says something completely different, and you are trying to present it as proof that you are right

So we need to trust BBC news like the propaganda media of the west! Come on don't try to show us whom to trust and whom not to. We have seen this before how western media spread fake news and fact. I am not saying Russian media is 100% honest in these but I do not trust western media also. There is some different news that doesn't make all of the western news to be 100% accurate.

The media in general is the most false thing ever, whether it's western or eastern. So it's better verify the info you get or just be skeptical in advance

[Newlifebtc]

Russia is neither gaining nor losing. Their export volume has got reduced due to the sanctions. But at the same time their revenues are up, thanks to the higher prices for crude oil, gas, potash, wheat and coal. The real gainers here are countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iraq who are witnessing an increase in their export of fossil fuels. Their volumes are up, and so are the prices. And on the other side, the losers are net importers of fossil fuels, such as India, China, Japan, European Union, Pakistan and smaller African nations.

India recently reduced oil prices in country after they hit a deal with Russia for cheap oil import. Pakistan also tried to buy Russian oil but USA did an operation regime change in Pakistan and now there is new government in Pakistan which is not buying oil from Russia. India and China are taking full advantage of this situation and buying cheap oil from Russia.

if I should ask this question which country have the highest oil producing in the world because the price of oil should not be a something that will affect every country if they have reduced the price of oil I think any of the country and their price of Boeing determine how their economy is being Rich so that should not be a problem to any of the country I see around

[2stout]

Good question but I'm sure some country will fill the void as this would be a monetary and political opportunity to look good, save face, and/or reputation restoration.  Long term strategy, I'm sure renewables is part of the plan or at least the conversation.

[Hispo]

Long term strategy, I'm sure renewables is part of the plan or at least the conversation.

The problem seems to be that renewable energy needs to be more if european governments plan to keep people's homes warm during winters. Germany being forced by the circunstances to move back to coal amid this gas crisis speaks much of how renewable energy is going, at least in that country for now.

[2stout]

Long term strategy, I'm sure renewables is part of the plan or at least the conversation.

The problem seems to be that renewable energy needs to be more if european governments plan to keep people's homes warm during winters. Germany being forced by the circunstances to move back to coal amid this gas crisis speaks much of how renewable energy is going, at least in that country for now.

True and I get what you're say, but I did say long term strategy, meaning not part of the immediate, short term, or mid tem strategy.  I think with what's going on, coal has to be a consideration in the immediate, short, and mid term.  When looking at energy policy and strategy shits, must be evaluated and implemented on a few fronts to eventually achieve the long term desired outcome.

[Naficopa]

Nobody. Russia doesn't need to be replaced because gas doesn't need to be replaced. What we know as "electricity prices are high" or "oil prices went up" are short term problems and it is sad that people do not see it. Renewable energy doesn't require as much money as you imagine for sustaining it, the whole cost is at building it and after you did, then it is minor to keep it going. Whereas with stuff like gas and oil you keep paying top price for it all the time.

Meaning, if you pay 100x more right now, which is idiotic I know, then you suddenly start to pay 10% later on each year. That is what the whole world is going towards. Since every nation could use their version of it, then all nations could become energy independent in the long run for sure.

That is correct and I am sure every buyer will go back to Russia to fulfill the supply - Finland on the other side is wholly dependent on Russia for their oil and gas supply. They won't be able to survive the power crisis if they don't trade oil and gas from Russia... This is the need of time when everyone is fighting their survival battle. . Only the fittest survive.

[galambo]

So we need to trust BBC news like the propaganda media of the west! Come on don't try to show us whom to trust and whom not to. We have seen this before how western media spread fake news and fact. I am not saying Russian media is 100% honest in these but I do not trust western media also. There is some different news that doesn't make all of the western news to be 100% accurate.

BBC has an agenda and they operate in every country to achieve objectives of England and USA. Small countries cant take action against BBC since it has backing of Super power aka England. But when they mess with big powers like China they got a blistering reply like China banned BBC back in Feb 2021 because of there propaganda campaign about covid19.
BBC did fake propaganda campaign about regime change in Pakistan but Pakistan being a weak country only protested on BBC fake news. Below is link of BBC news which was rejected by Pakistani government but its still on there website. Use Google English translator to view the news.

https://www.bbc.com/urdu/pakistan-61055639

[mm2543363580]

Oil producing countries are never at loss, unless an invader comes in and destroy the economy like Iraq and Iran.
Russia has obviously a very strong defence having 7000 nukes is not a joke. They are at the top when it comes to defence. So they know how to run the market - the only at loss are those who are disconnecting their terms with Russia.

Yes. You are right. Only ones who are losing here are the countries which refuse to purchase cheaper products from Russia. Germany would have never become a major industrial powerhouse without the cheap gas from Russia. Back in 1970s, the first socialist chancellor Willy Brandt took steps to construct gas pipeline from the USSR to FRG, as per the Ostpolitik policy. This step benefited FRG much more than the USSR. With cheap gas from Siberia, the German manufacturers were able to destroy the competition from Japan and the United States. Now they are forgetting all this, and in the end only their industries are going to suffer.

Every country has to follow what Americans say. If they do not follow their instrustions they are at loss. Like Sri Lanaka and Pakistan, Earlier in Iran there we a huge regime change when Dr Musadaq went into custody and died of cancer because raising voice against regime change.

[DrBeer]

You are lying

No, you are constantly carrying the slogans of the Kremlin propaganda. And that's a total lie
You spent 24 hours to find an article that says something completely different, and you are trying to present it as proof that you are right No need to twist the situation and manipulate the information again. Once again, I repeat for you - China (for sure) and very likely India (I can’t check, but I’m sure that it did the same in this situation), they buy out EXTRA oil at a dumping price, which now does not enter the EU in the same volumes. Chinese brokers are voicing a price of about $40 per barrel. Like it or not, it's a fact! Listen less to the Kremlin's propaganda, and spread it less - this is information garbage!

This is not true, and in the link I provided above there is a price chart for Russian Ural oil. Your unsubstantiated statements are groundless, take the trouble to provide a prooflink or stop spreading deliberately false information on the forum.

Yes, I don’t care what schedule, or other information, you will manipulate, for ephemeral happiness, self-hypnosis, that everything is fine in Russia! 
You can draw any graphs, but I know what is happening in Russia, how the vaunted economy, the military industry is heading into the abyss. How "Great Russia" begging for weapons from its neighbors. As in Russia, I adopt anti-human laws in order to at least somehow satisfy the nonsense of a pathetic likeness of Hitler. How literally in a year the economy degraded to a level similar to the level after the First World War. In a word - propaganda and lies - leave for the inhabitants of Russia, they live by this and love it very much!

And once again - it is the Chinese traders who provide information on deals, on oil. And at the moment, all the oil that additionally poured from Russia to China is bought by China (as China ordered Russia), in the region of $40 per barrel. Whether you like it or not, this is the reality

[Naficopa]

Russia is neither gaining nor losing. Their export volume has got reduced due to the sanctions. But at the same time their revenues are up, thanks to the higher prices for crude oil, gas, potash, wheat and coal. The real gainers here are countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iraq who are witnessing an increase in their export of fossil fuels. Their volumes are up, and so are the prices. And on the other side, the losers are net importers of fossil fuels, such as India, China, Japan, European Union, Pakistan and smaller African nations.

India recently reduced oil prices in country after they hit a deal with Russia for cheap oil import. Pakistan also tried to buy Russian oil but USA did an operation regime change in Pakistan and now there is new government in Pakistan which is not buying oil from Russia. India and China are taking full advantage of this situation and buying cheap oil from Russia.

One thing can be said with certainty - having your own oil and gas is very profitable. If you have a product, there will always be buyers. For better or worse, there will be people who want to make money by reselling your product. But if you have nothing and want to have something, then please pay money. You have no other choice and will never.

One thing is also for sure - - that India is very smart - they play good. They have terms with USA and they have terms with RUssia.
How they do that - I heard Pakistani PM on DW's TV he got very angry while giving interview - he said he priority in his country men and not the whole world.

[DrBeer]

A small chronology of "Russia's successes", literally over the past week (all facts can be verified!):

- The Russians plundered the museums of Mariupol. Original paintings by Aivazovsky and Kuindzhi stolen
- Lavrov left the meeting of the G20 Foreign Ministers in disgrace, after the total boycott of the representative of the country of the world terrorist, by the participants of the meeting
- A large energy project worth 37 billion was stopped due to sanctions - General Electric refused to supply a new turbine for the Zainskaya GRES in Tatarstan, and Putler "raised Russia from its knees" in such a way that without General Electric turbines, Zainskaya GRES will not be upgraded, but closed.
- "Tasty - and the point" (stolen McDonald's) removed french fries from the menu due to crop failure. Potatoes are expected to return to the menu in the fall. But it is not exactly...
- The largest lead plant in Russia, Fregat, has been shut down. Four more lead enterprises are on the verge of stopping - Ryaztsvetmet, Ecorusmetall, Agropribor and UMMC.
- In Russia, presented 5 models of the new car "Moskvich". It sounds very patriotic, if not for a single "but" - they, as expected, turned out to be models of the Chinese manufacturer JAC, who condescendingly allowed the Russians to assemble them under their Moskvich nameplate. Nameplates "Moskvich" Russia will also ask China to produce, since they themselves do not have the technology for this
- Oil prices began to plummet amid a statement by Deputy Head of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev in his Telegram channel about the growth in oil prices "above the predicted astronomical price of 300-400 dollars." I love Russian clowns-morons
- As a result of limiting the price of Russian oil, the possibility of which was agreed last week by the leaders of the G7, this product can become cheaper for buyers by about half the current price. Now $40 per barrel will be not only for India and China And for India and China it will be $20 each. As always, "Russia outplayed everyone" by shooting itself in both legs and ass
- On Monday, July 5, Russian oil was trading at $80 per barrel. This is the spot price ("here and now"). So China and India are buying oil below $40 per barrel (waiting for clarification)
- Iran and Russia are increasingly reducing oil prices in the struggle for the Chinese market. Moscow began actively supplying oil to China after the invasion of Ukraine, as sanctions significantly reduced the ability of the Russian Federation to export raw materials to Europe. Therefore, Iranian producers have to reduce the price of their oil, as China remains the only major market for rogue states such as the Russian Federation and Iran.
As a result, Urals has halved in price in two months amid a decline in dollar prices and a fake/artificial strengthening of the ruble.



.... but Russia is whipping up hysteria "you have nothing to replace our gas" In fact, it sounds like this - "keep buying our gas and oil, we will get ass without it! We can't do anything ourselves, except pull oil out of holes and gas! And then, if Western technologies help us. We do not want to go to the Stone Age, buy our gas!