Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe?

[coupable]

Who is left on the American side today?

All empires fall but it takes time. What we have to remember that not everything is lost ... yet.
For example Europe is still the main importer of US inflation. Which is why we saw EUR start dumping. They even started importing the low quality US gas that had a hard time finding customers before.
US still has a lot of colonies around the world like Saudi Arabia, an oil rich country that is only getting some kicks in while US is showing weakness.
Their weapons exports grow due to the conflicts too, they basically regained a good chunk of the market that they lost ever since we shot down their most advanced and expensive stealth aircraft in 2019 with a single shot.

I am not saying that America will collapse or that its power will collapse. My idea is that other international alliances are being formed to form a map of new powers with new concepts, and America will find itself forced to follow the new rules. Today, for example, you cannot form an international power without you and your allies having sufficient supplies of raw materials for advanced technological industries. America is experiencing a deficit in this area, since many of the precision industries are monopolized by Russian or Chinese companies or one of their affiliated countries.
Recently, I heard about reworking the commercial aircraft production project that China has been working on since the sixties of the last century, and it did not find sufficient solutions to it due to its lack of experience and materials. I mean, if Airbus and Boeing were to be isolated, this would constitute a painful blow to America and Europe together.
What I mean is that global powers are re-forming, and the elements of power, as in America, have become classic ; As the world is moving towards producing clean energies in order to preserve the planet, and therefore oil is on the way to reducing its size. And as for weapons, they are hostage to causing chaos everywhere, which will vanish. Gradually with technological globalization and how the world has become a small village, its elements are easily affected by each other .

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[DrBeer]

Breathe deeply, you are excited. Relations between Ukraine and NATO began in 1992, when Ukraine, after gaining independence, joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. A few years later, in February 1994, Ukraine entered into a framework agreement with NATO under the Partnership for Peace initiative, followed in 2002 by the NATO Individual Partnership Plan. Between these events, in April 1999, a NATO mission opened in Kyiv. You either do not know the latest history of your own country well, or you are lying openly.

No, you can't have a conversation like that. You can lie stupidly and primitively only in Russia
I am extremely calm, moreover, when I read your opuses, the feeling is that there is only one positive in the circus.
And we'll be back. YOU, personally, a couple of posts above said that even before the war (before 2014, that's what I said earlier), Ukraine had plans to join NATO prescribed in the legislation. And again he habitually lied - the document refers to 2018, which I showed with a link to this document
But now you start to wag and talk nonsense about connections, ideas, "just wanted to." Partnership is not a synonym for "enshrined in the Constitution." Changing standards is not the same as "joining NATO". Having relations with a military-political bloc does not mean being part of it!

At 200, Russia itself wanted to join NATO, the Kremlin's bald geek spoke about this - on YouTube you will find his speech about this

One recommendation - DO NOT lie always and everywhere. With or without reason! You are not in Russia!

[be.open]

Breathe deeply, you are excited. Relations between Ukraine and NATO began in 1992, when Ukraine, after gaining independence, joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. A few years later, in February 1994, Ukraine entered into a framework agreement with NATO under the Partnership for Peace initiative, followed in 2002 by the NATO Individual Partnership Plan. Between these events, in April 1999, a NATO mission opened in Kyiv. You either do not know the latest history of your own country well, or you are lying openly.

No, you can't have a conversation like that. You can lie stupidly and primitively only in Russia
I am extremely calm, moreover, when I read your opuses, the feeling is that there is only one positive in the circus.
And we'll be back. YOU, personally, a couple of posts above said that even before the war (before 2014, that's what I said earlier), Ukraine had plans to join NATO prescribed in the legislation. And again he habitually lied - the document refers to 2018, which I showed with a link to this document
But now you start to wag and talk nonsense about connections, ideas, "just wanted to." Partnership is not a synonym for "enshrined in the Constitution." Changing standards is not the same as "joining NATO". Having relations with a military-political bloc does not mean being part of it!

At 200, Russia itself wanted to join NATO, the Kremlin's bald geek spoke about this - on YouTube you will find his speech about this

One recommendation - DO NOT lie always and everywhere. With or without reason! You are not in Russia!

You distort. At first you said that Ukraine had no plans to join NATO, and I objected that these plans are even enshrined in the supreme law of your country. Then you said that this happened after the annexation of Crimea and therefore does not count, but I gave examples of much earlier plans for Ukraine to join NATO, and not just unfounded statements, but backed up by actions. This is not a nice conversation style on your part, shame on you.

Now I understand why Putin called the West an empire of lies, and Arestovich called it the Ukrainian national idea to lie to oneself. 

[$anounimus$]

Who will replace Russia?

The Russian Federation has been the main supplier of natural gas to Europe for decades. The gas pipeline network that crosses the continent is huge and connects Russia with almost all European countries. The EU is too dependent on Russian gas supplies. It is therefore forced to negotiate while the Russian Federation holds all the cards wanting to gain more political influence in Ukraine and other countries.

It seems To replace Russia's gas supply will be a big challenge because it takes a lot of time and a lot of resources. Several countries have made efforts to push for a new era of clean energy so that they can not only supply energy but also export this source to other countries and it looks like Qatar and Africa are not expected to be a responsive alternative to Russia's gas supply but it will be interesting to see how they do. all deal with it if the situation arises and it would be better to keep a close watch on the trend.

[pooya87]

Is Turkey going to be kicked out of NATO?

Apparently US is the only country that can decide who remains in NATO and recently they have been talking about how Turkey has committed war crimes in Syria (as if they didn't know it already in the past couple of years lol). Meanwhile they are shifting to Greece to replace Turkey's geostrategic position which may even lead to a conflict (between two NATO members no less!).

Considering Turkey is a small lifeline for Europe considering energy this could put an extra pressure on the already weak European economy and worsen the energy crisis specially since Turkey will have no other choice but turn to Russia and play in their game.

[LittleBitFunny]

Is Turkey going to be kicked out of NATO?

Apparently US is the only country that can decide who remains in NATO and recently they have been talking about how Turkey has committed war crimes in Syria (as if they didn't know it already in the past couple of years lol). Meanwhile they are shifting to Greece to replace Turkey's geostrategic position which may even lead to a conflict (between two NATO members no less!).

Considering Turkey is a small lifeline for Europe considering energy this could put an extra pressure on the already weak European economy and worsen the energy crisis specially since Turkey will have no other choice but turn to Russia and play in their game.

AFAIK, the Nato has a principle called Consensus Decision. When a member wants to join the bloc, it must have the consent of all the countries in the bloc, and when a country is revoked its membership of Nato, it must also have the consent of the whole Nato bloc. Which means that Turkey can only leave NATO if and only if it votes for itself to leave the bloc, the US cannot unilaterally revoke Ankara's membership.

Turkey is the only country in the bloc with close ties to Russia, having been the mediator of many war talks between Russia and Ukraine, most recently a grain deal. If the US pushes Turkey towards Russia, just as they are making it difficult for themselves, the EU will fall further into crisis without Turkey.

[qwertyup23]

African countries have been tipped as the best option because the continent has some of the world’s deepest gas reserves. But Africa might not replace Russia because of insecurity and lack of infrastructures.

Who will replace Russia?

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/1/analysis-can-african-gas-replace-russian-supplies-to-europe

This is an interesting discussion- assuming that Russia completely cuts its ties supplying gas to Europe, this would mean that there would be an increase of 65% in price of household energy.¹ With this kind of increase, countries would collapse and its economy would slowly crumble following this cutting of connection.

Though this might be the case, I am assuming that the world leaders are taking measures and contingencies to prevent this from happening. I guess they are slowly looking for alternatives at this stage as they are already accepting that Russia will soon do the inevitable.

¹ https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/what-happens-if-russia-cuts-off-gas-to-europe-index.html

[coupable]

AFAIK, the Nato has a principle called Consensus Decision. When a member wants to join the bloc, it must have the consent of all the countries in the bloc, and when a country is revoked its membership of Nato, it must also have the consent of the whole Nato bloc. Which means that Turkey can only leave NATO if and only if it votes for itself to leave the bloc, the US cannot unilaterally revoke Ankara's membership.

Turkey is the only country in the bloc with close ties to Russia, having been the mediator of many war talks between Russia and Ukraine, most recently a grain deal. If the US pushes Turkey towards Russia, just as they are making it difficult for themselves, the EU will fall further into crisis without Turkey.

And why exclude the idea that America wants to put more pressure on Europe? By pushing Europe to impose economic sanctions on Russia, the Arab countries entered into economic crises in various forms and found themselves forced to acquire their needs from the United States on unfair conditions. Of course, this contributes to reviving the American market, which is going through a state of chronic deflation.
When we say NATO, it means America or simply America's allies. There would be no NATO without America.
For this reason, Turkey could be expelled from NATO if America wanted to.
America will not ask Turkey to be expelled from the coalition because of its position in support of Israel and because it is a strategic ally on the ground regarding the situation in the Middle East in general (Syria, Iraq, Iran). The difference in positions on some issues will not encourage America to sacrifice everything unless it has benefits from it, as it does with its European allies.

[Sithara007]

More exciting new coming in from Europe. The Dutch TTF natural gas prices now stand at $2,666 per thousand cubic meters. The winter is still 2-3 months away, and I really hope that the prices may touch $4,000-$5,000 per cubic meters by then. Gazprom has informed the European customers that Nord Stream 1 will remain closed from 31st August to 2nd September. Now it is up to Ukraine to make sure that Russian gas doesn't reach Europe through their territory. If no gas flows through Nord Stream 1 and the Yamal–Europe pipeline, the only transit route will be through the Urengoy–Uzhhorod pipeline through Ukraine.

[Argoo]

Who will replace Russia?

The Russian Federation has been the main supplier of natural gas to Europe for decades. The gas pipeline network that crosses the continent is huge and connects Russia with almost all European countries. The EU is too dependent on Russian gas supplies. It is therefore forced to negotiate while the Russian Federation holds all the cards wanting to gain more political influence in Ukraine and other countries.

It seems To replace Russia's gas supply will be a big challenge because it takes a lot of time and a lot of resources. Several countries have made efforts to push for a new era of clean energy so that they can not only supply energy but also export this source to other countries and it looks like Qatar and Africa are not expected to be a responsive alternative to Russia's gas supply but it will be interesting to see how they do. all deal with it if the situation arises and it would be better to keep a close watch on the trend.

In my opinion, you should not worry so much about the countries of Europe. They want to get rid of oil and gas dependence on Russia and will do it. At first it will be difficult, you will have to temporarily sacrifice coziness and traditional comfort, but it's worth it. But Russia will forever lose its superiority and the possibility of blackmail and political influence on the countries of Europe. But let's see what will happen next with Russia itself. The Kremlin has long understood that the situation is losing, but Putin is used to bluffing. Therefore, for the time being, they defiantly show the world that everything is fine with them and everything is under control. But at the same time, Russia is steadily sinking.

[Sithara007]

In my opinion, you should not worry so much about the countries of Europe. They want to get rid of oil and gas dependence on Russia and will do it. At first it will be difficult, you will have to temporarily sacrifice coziness and traditional comfort, but it's worth it. But Russia will forever lose its superiority and the possibility of blackmail and political influence on the countries of Europe. But let's see what will happen next with Russia itself. The Kremlin has long understood that the situation is losing, but Putin is used to bluffing. Therefore, for the time being, they defiantly show the world that everything is fine with them and everything is under control. But at the same time, Russia is steadily sinking.

"Sinking" Russia just posted a trade surplus of $139 billion during the first 6 months of 2022. Meanwhile Germany and the other EU nations are reeling from double-digit inflation. And the winter hasn't yet started. You need to check the headlines of western media when the sanctions were first announced. I got an impression that Ruble will go down to 1USD = 300 RUR and Russian GDP will contract by 50% or so within a year. The Ruble is doing just fine, while it is the Euro that is sinking now. At this point, USD has overtaken EUR in exchange rate. One year ago, the exchange rate was 1USD = 0.84 EUR.

[pooya87]

AFAIK, the Nato has a principle called Consensus Decision. When a member wants to join the bloc, it must have the consent of all the countries in the bloc, and when a country is revoked its membership of Nato, it must also have the consent of the whole Nato bloc. Which means that Turkey can only leave NATO if and only if it votes for itself to leave the bloc, the US cannot unilaterally revoke Ankara's membership.

Technically there is no details defined in NATO treaty about reasons and procedures for expulsion of a member state. They have left it wide open and can interpret it anyway they want. Basically they say in case of "material breach of the treaty" the membership can be revoked. And "material breach of the treaty" can mean anything like war crimes committed by Turkey in Syria.

P.S. At least 16 countries in Europe surpassed double digits inflation so far.

[RamBahadur.Gurung]

Technically there is no details defined in NATO treaty about reasons and procedures for expulsion of a member state. They have left it wide open and can interpret it anyway they want. Basically they say in case of "material breach of the treaty" the membership can be revoked. And "material breach of the treaty" can mean anything like war crimes committed by Turkey in Syria.

P.S. At least 16 countries in Europe surpassed double digits inflation so far.

I am not sure about this, but my guess is that Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO, after the United States. On paper, the United Kingdom and France are stronger since they have nuclear weapons. But in terms of military strength and capability, I guess Turkey is ahead of them. Other NATO members such as Germany, Italy and Spain are far behind. I don't think that a majority of the NATO members would like to lose Turkey from the alliance. If the choice is going to be between Sweden and Turkey, then I am sure that it is going to be the latter.

[Mario Yamasaki]

To be able to supply gas is certainly easy but when everything must be done quickly it will be difficult, connecting the gas pipeline requires a long process so it is difficult to be able to find a country that can supply gas to Europe let alone the dependence of many industries in gas.

[pooya87]

I am not sure about this, but my guess is that Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO, after the United States.

Large =/= Strong
Turkish military is big but it is not technically strong. Almost everything they have is bought. If a single screw comes loose in an aircraft for example they can not fix it! Even their primitive UAV (Bayraktar) which they advertise these days is an assembly line which they have to import all the parts and just assemble it in Turkey.

I don't think that a majority of the NATO members would like to lose Turkey from the alliance. If the choice is going to be between Sweden and Turkey, then I am sure that it is going to be the latter.

The problem with Turkey is not over Sweden/Finland thing, that's just drama for the media. The problem with Turkey is how they are helping Russia. They have to do it too since Turkey is caught in the middle between East and West and can not face either side alone.

On the topic of Russian Gas replacement, France is playing a very dangerous game that could lead to oil prices shooting up again. They have been selling weapons to Arabs who are planning to resume attacking Yemen to steal Yemenis gas then export it to starving Europe.

The only problem is Yemen is not going to stand idly by, they are going to hit back hard, possibly their energy related infrastructures like before. It seems like they've forgotten what happened to Aramco and how they still haven't been able to recover the 4-7 million bpd capacity they lost.
Russia would also be screwed if this happens, so they may get involved also. There are already growing ties.

If the tensions resume again in that region, oil price could go back up above $120 and if they hit Arab's energy infrastructure we could be heading towards $200+ this time. But also that may bring NATO into that conflict since there is a good chance that Yemenis would also start targeting French forces.
I wonder what's going to happen to Europe's economy when Suez Canal is shut down blocking all trades with EU...

[Sithara007]

^^^ I heard about the provocations in Yemen, but I didn't knew that it was France which is playing the role of mastermind. I have a lot of doubts here. How are they planning to export gas from Yemen? I am sure that Yemen doesn't have any gas pipelines connecting to Europe. And most probably they don't have any large LNG terminals. So what is the use in capturing all these gas fields? How the supplies can be transported to Europe? For a brief period Dutch TTF gas prices went up to $3,500 per 1000 cu.m. Now it is trading at around ~$3,000. Two years ago, the price was $100-150.

[pooya87]

^^^ I heard about the provocations in Yemen, but I didn't knew that it was France which is playing the role of mastermind.

The situation is a lot more complicated than that. It starts 4 decades ago in 1980 when both US and Soviets are searching for oil and gas in Yemen and the classified documents showed that apparently Yemen has ridiculously large supplies. They say they own 35% of the entire world reserves! Ever since then Yemen has been the focus of attacks, installed oppressive governments, wars, and for the past 8 years genocide.
Some sources are saying that $10 billion of their oil was stolen by foreign invaders in the past couple of years alone.

France is only part of all that. Today US is too busy and scared to get involved specially after their base was targeted by Yemenis forces, UAE is too weak and has its infrastructures damaged, Saudis are involved elsewhere and have their Aramco blown up, so now French are deploying troops there (I believe the French Foreign Legion) hoping it discourages any attacks on a NATO member.
I'd say that is stupid thinking, specially when you consider how they were screwed in Mali and elsewhere from groups a lot weaker than Yemenis resistance and with a lot more to lose!

I have a lot of doubts here. How are they planning to export gas from Yemen? I am sure that Yemen doesn't have any gas pipelines connecting to Europe. And most probably they don't have any large LNG terminals. So what is the use in capturing all these gas fields? How the supplies can be transported to Europe?

You have to remember that this is a desperate move. The Europeans have been trying to get ANY amount of energy (both oil and gas) from ANYWHERE at ANY cost. Even small amounts. Specially since Russia keeps increasing the pressure on EU and their other suppliers keep getting blown up like the recent explosions in Africa for example Nigeria!

Yemen does have some LNG infrastructure that was built many years ago before the conflict grow too big and out of hand. For example there is one in Balhaf built by a French company called Total. I'm not sure if there is any other.

Another part of the plan is also to take over the Yemen gas fields and build some infrastructure (like pipelines) and connect it to the existing pipelines to transfer some of Yemen's gas to Saudi Arabia and possibly UAE and convert it to LNG there for exports to EU with the money going in the pockets of the France, UAE and Saudis while people in Yemen are starving!

[Sithara007]

^^^^ LOL.. I can understand this sudden desperation for natural gas. Europeans have shot themselves on the foot. I was checking the Dutch TTF prices, and for the last 2-3 days, they are going up like crazy.

https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5419234&span=3

Currently natural gas is trading at $4,053 per thousand cubic meters. Can you believe this? This is almost a 40x increase compared to the prices they had in 2020. And the funny thing is that winter is still a good two-three months away. I saw some predictions claiming that natural has prices will reach $5,000 per kcu.m by the end of this year. Now it looks as if it may go up even further.

[Devifajarina]

The availability of gas in this case is enough to determine, who can replace Russia, the state of Africa and Qatar both have opportunities, if both can provide gas according to demand, the problem is that Africa does not have enough infrastructure in terms of supporting all these needs, While Qatar has everything and is possible to be at the front line.
But inventory supply will be a major problem, how many countries can provide demand and be able to provide it

[DrBeer]

Yesterday, gas on trading floors reached a very high price. This is a fact, it is foolish to deny reality - we are not lovers of Russian state propaganda!?
In Russia, another propaganda screeching began: "you will all freeze without Russian gas, we have defeated you." BUT, let's leave it for people with a remote brain
Now a few words about reality.
1. How the market works. More precisely, how is the PRICE formed? I will not talk about the cost, I will talk about the market price of a product, or in this case a resource, which includes a certain cost, and the rest is a margin. So the margin changes, depending on demand or demand prospects. Very briefly - the price is directly proportional to demand. In some situations, it is not even directly proportional, but geometrically, it happens, this is normal. Those. the higher the demand, the higher the price. But here I will add a nuance - demand is inversely proportional to the volume of available goods / raw materials. Those. the less demanded goods / raw materials on the market, the higher the demand and the higher the market price! I hope no one argues? And you ask - why are you telling us this?
2. I answer - in order for you to understand a hundred REALLY happening in the EU gas market. So what's going on? And here's what:
3. An international terrorist country that promotes Nazi ideology understands that it is losing both the war to Ukraine and the war against the sanctions imposed by the civilized world. Need to do something. What ? Well, you won’t be able to win, but according to the national Russian idea, if you don’t win, then you must at least spoil the enemy, well, in order to consider yourself a “winner”, do some kind of meanness, abomination, well, as terrorists should. And they do - reduce gas supplies. This of course drives up the price. Everything is right here. The only thing that is not true is that it will "save" Russia! Why ? Because by reducing the flow of gas to the EU, of course, deliberately, Russia did not find a buyer for the surplus gas, and did not reduce production. There are no buyers because the gas transmission system for the EU does not have a reverse flow to other gas transportation "sleeves".
But it cannot reduce production - due to technological backwardness from the modern world. Freezing wells for Russia is an almost irreversible process, and will mean the loss of this field forever.
Do you know what Russia is doing now with these millions of cubic kilometers of gas? No, you don't know... She BURNS them! Stupidly, primitively burns, to its own detriment, but with the hope of spoiling the EU! This is the greatness of Russia
The problem is that this gas, these volumes of gas, Russia will never return, will not make a profit, but will only once again prove that Russia's "moves" are pure idiocy and terrorism But this will soon come to an end, very soon!