Wheat War I is going to be World War III

[pooya87]

More and more countries are being involved into wheat conflict. Now it is Turkey, as Ukraine says Russian ship carrying Ukrainian grain detained by Turkey. This is either fake or propaganda (but the sources, CNBC has a good reputation), or soon relationship between Russia and Turkey will be shaken.

I will put down question of this wheat origin, I am more interested in what will happen to this wheat. Can it be simply held, as I expect this ship to be under arrest or investigation for a long period, or this wheat will be spoiled in the end. When there are short of wheat in the world, loosing supply is a big no or failure.

Turkey has been playing a very dangerous game, not because of this news alone but because they are playing with and against both sides. In my opinion the fate of this single cargo ship is not important (although in the context of this topic it is), but the more important thing is the fate of the countries that play in the middle instead of clearly defining their side in a world that is no longer unipolar. We could see Turkey receive its response in Syria that they have been trying to invade and occupy (and failing) for some time now. That respond could be harsh.

It is not just Turkey either, there are a couple of others that are doing this like Ukraine that did this and Lithuania that is doing it these days.
On one hand Lithuania is increasing tensions with Russia by blocking shipments to Kaliningrad (a strategically important region for Russia that is separated from mainland by Baltic countries) and on the other hand they tell Russia they are sorry and were just "following orders"!!! Meanwhile nuclear missiles are being deployed in Belarus and Suwałki Gap could be taken in a couple of hours.

The worst part is that they are part of the same NATO that tells them that they are not going to send any help while speculating that when Russia attacks they'll take all these Baltic countries in less than 60 hours!

Washington should privately deliver a clear and tough message to Vilnius and other capitals throughout Europe, especially in the East: Inciting Moscow to strike would relieve the U.S. of any obligation to defend them, even if they are NATO members. It is vital for America and the rest of Europe to keep the dogs of war leashed if at all possible.

When I said in this board that NATO (and by extension European Union) is a useless alliance and some people laughed. I was being modest, NATO is not only a useless treaty but also a dangerous one to 90% of its members.
- First they force Lithuania to block Russian exports to Kaliningrad which Lithuania must obey.
- Second Russia threatens Lithuania for what they did.
- Third NATO tell Lithuania that they are increasing tensions and they won't be helped if they keep it up!

P.S. We now have a better understanding of why there are many anti-NATO protests in NATO countries like Spain.

[1714699513]

1714699513

[stompix]

For example in Iran farmers receive a lot of help at times like this, for example they could receive fertilizers at very cheap prices so that their final product doesn't need to go up in price. Sometimes they have a guarantee of purchase at a high price (even higher than market price). This is why food prices (like bread) haven't technically gone up except in some cases (like rice) they only had a small rise.

Interesting, indeed interesting..
What a success story if you were to believe what the propaganda tells you..

So, looking at what the Statistical Center of Iran says here:
https://www.amar.org.ir/english/SCI-News-Archive/ID/18460/consumer-price-index-in-the-month-of-khordad-of-the-year-1401

The point-to-point inflation rate of this month experienced a 13.2 percentage point increase in comparison with the previous month (Ordibehesht, the year 1401). The point-to-point inflation rate for the major groups of "food, beverages and tobacco" and "non-food items and services" were 81.6 percent with a 32.2 percentage point increase and 36.8 percent with a 2.8 percentage point increase, respectively.

there are two options left, either the Iranian government is lying in its statistics, or you're the one doing the lying.
But maybe, since the rial is doing a /100 or /1000, can't remember the zeros anymore,  against the dollar maybe a 80% increase in food price is the normal thing there, and locals call it a "small" rise.

[YinShuiSiYuan]

there are two options left, either the Iranian government is lying in its statistics, or you're the one doing the lying.
But maybe, since the rial is doing a /100 or /1000, can't remember the zeros anymore,  against the dollar maybe a 80% increase in food price is the normal thing there, and locals call it a "small" rise.

Iran is still in comfortable position despite ban from USA , thanks to Iran internal unity and rich oil reserves. Iran is self sufficient in producing food items and electricity. Its even importing these things to its neighbours. I am not sure about Iran statistics but still Iran is far better then many countries of its region.

[pooya87]

there are two options left, either the Iranian government is lying in its statistics, or you're the one doing the lying.
But maybe, since the rial is doing a /100 or /1000, can't remember the zeros anymore,  against the dollar maybe a 80% increase in food price is the normal thing there, and locals call it a "small" rise.

Iran is still in comfortable position despite ban from USA , thanks to Iran internal unity and rich oil reserves. Iran is self sufficient in producing food items and electricity. Its even importing these things to its neighbours. I am not sure about Iran statistics but still Iran is far better then many countries of its region.

I don't know why he thinks he knows my country better than I, good thing I have him on ignore ever since he supported an act of terror.

In any case since it was brought up I have to say that I'm not an economy expert to know how the hell they compute these numbers. Iran has inflation, sometimes high ones but it is nowhere near as high as those numbers report. For example I write every single cent I spend in an excel spreadsheet for money management, I just made some computations to see the amount of money I've spent in the past 5 years which should show the inflation to some extent:


There is a peak in 1399 because I made multiple big purchases (mostly expensive house appliances) but ignoring that the amount of money I spend annually is increasing by less than 10% and I haven't changed my spending habits in the past 5 years at all.

The last value belongs to this year (we are currently at the beginning of Tir, that is 4th month of the year) and the amount of money I've spent so far is almost the same as last year.

So why is the statistics showing higher inflation? If I had to guess it should be because they are ignoring the subsidy for the goods they use in their computation. For example the items in the basket they use includes things like cooking oil, flour (bread), white and red meat, eggs, dairy products, grains, fruits and vegetables, etc. Each of these have a multiplier based on their importance and the following items have the highest: Bread (no price change in the past couple of years). Cooking oil (price quadrupled). Eggs (price about doubled). Meat (price went up about 50%). The average of all of these becomes a high number.

But here is where the subsidy comes in and makes the difference. The items I explicitly named above had the highest rise and all received a subsidy from the government but it was paid to the producer and consumer bought it at low prices. For example if you looked at the price printed on the cooking oil bottle a month or two ago it used to be 14.9 T but today it is about 60 which is a 4x increase. But now the government is paying that subsidy to the consumer, in other words people are still technically buying that cooking oil bottle (and other goods with high price rises) at previous prices if not lower.

This is why I said price of food "didn't technically go up". If I'm not mistaken 80% of the population which is about 70 million are currently receiving the cash every month in their bank accounts. So on paper the inflation rate shows higher values for the past months that these changes are taking place (and of course because of actual inflation) but realistically inflation rate is a lot lower than the reported numbers.

This was done to prevent smuggling. Fun fact: the day after this change went live cooking oil was nowhere to be found in 4 of our neighbor countries since smuggling stopped abruptly!

[stompix]

I don't know why he thinks he knows my country better than I

This way of thinking hasn't stopped you from claiming things about every European country on the map despite never setting foot there..

In any case since it was brought up I have to say that I'm not an economy expert to know how the hell they compute these numbers. Iran has inflation, sometimes high ones but it is nowhere near as high as those numbers report. For example I write every single cent I spend in an excel spreadsheet for money management, I just made some computations to see the amount of money I've spent in the past 5 years which should show the inflation to some extent:

Yeah lol, let's believe the guys who
- claimed sunflower oil was nowhere to be found in Germany when stores were full
- the guy who claimed the bankrupt UK paid half a billion for two spies captured in Iran
- the guy who claimed that two rockets fired by Iran destroyed American equipment worth trillions
- the guy who claimed 6000 American soldiers died killed by Iran strikes
 the guy who claimed American weapons are shit despite the global superpower intergalactic army of Iran still flying F4 made in the US 60 years ago

And when presented with accurate data from his own government, then the data...is not that is this and it's not that because ...

Cooking oil (price quadrupled). Eggs (price about doubled). Meat (price went up about 50%). The average of all of these becomes a high number.

So the price went up but the subsidy that was just canceled is making those prices not going up...
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220619-inflation-subsidy-reform-hit-stomachs-in-isolated-iran

Yeah, have fun lying to yourself and dreaming Iran is a superpower, and the western civilization will collapse just because you got your green card denied..meanwhile, the reality is entirely different.

If I'm not mistaken 80% of the population which is about 70 million are currently receiving the cash every month in their bank accounts.

What a nice way to say that 80% of the population is facing starvation and the government is helping them with...10$ a month?

Yearly inflation in the US hits 8%
- the US will go bankrupt
Monthly inflation hits 13% in Iran
- the US will go bankrupt 

[DrBeer]

More and more countries are being involved into wheat conflict. Now it is Turkey, as Ukraine says Russian ship carrying Ukrainian grain detained by Turkey. This is either fake or propaganda (but the sources, CNBC has a good reputation), or soon relationship between Russia and Turkey will be shaken.

I will put down question of this wheat origin, I am more interested in what will happen to this wheat. Can it be simply held, as I expect this ship to be under arrest or investigation for a long period, or this wheat will be spoiled in the end. When there are short of wheat in the world, loosing supply is a big no or failure.

Turkey has been playing a very dangerous game, not because of this news alone but because they are playing with and against both sides. In my opinion the fate of this single cargo ship is not important (although in the context of this topic it is), but the more important thing is the fate of the countries that play in the middle instead of clearly defining their side in a world that is no longer unipolar. We could see Turkey receive its response in Syria that they have been trying to invade and occupy (and failing) for some time now. That respond could be harsh.

It is not just Turkey either, there are a couple of others that are doing this like Ukraine that did this and Lithuania that is doing it these days.
On one hand Lithuania is increasing tensions with Russia by blocking shipments to Kaliningrad (a strategically important region for Russia that is separated from mainland by Baltic countries) and on the other hand they tell Russia they are sorry and were just "following orders"!!! Meanwhile nuclear missiles are being deployed in Belarus and Suwałki Gap could be taken in a couple of hours.

The worst part is that they are part of the same NATO that tells them that they are not going to send any help while speculating that when Russia attacks they'll take all these Baltic countries in less than 60 hours!

Washington should privately deliver a clear and tough message to Vilnius and other capitals throughout Europe, especially in the East: Inciting Moscow to strike would relieve the U.S. of any obligation to defend them, even if they are NATO members. It is vital for America and the rest of Europe to keep the dogs of war leashed if at all possible.

When I said in this board that NATO (and by extension European Union) is a useless alliance and some people laughed. I was being modest, NATO is not only a useless treaty but also a dangerous one to 90% of its members.
- First they force Lithuania to block Russian exports to Kaliningrad which Lithuania must obey.
- Second Russia threatens Lithuania for what they did.
- Third NATO tell Lithuania that they are increasing tensions and they won't be helped if they keep it up!

P.S. We now have a better understanding of why there are many anti-NATO protests in NATO countries like Spain.

Oh, what are you talking about and fantasizing!? In Lithuania, it is just doing another, scheduled inspection of the railway tracks. Yes, it doesn't block anything. You just have to wait and be patient! And you have already fantasized about something incomprehensible! And what prevents "great Russia" from providing its territories by sea, by planes? Russia is the most powerful country and everyone envy her! How did the ruble get stronger? The dollar is already jealous! And the Americans too! Alaska will soon be taken away from the USA! Well, it's still great! Why are you so worried about some kind of NATO? They don’t even have analogues that have no weapons, a non-replaceable leader and the strongest currency, such as the ruble, in service?!
And the Lithuanians are slowly checking sleeper after sleeper

[bitgov]

Oh, what are you talking about and fantasizing!? In Lithuania, it is just doing another, scheduled inspection of the railway tracks. Yes, it doesn't block anything. You just have to wait and be patient! And you have already fantasized about something incomprehensible! And what prevents "great Russia" from providing its territories by sea, by planes? Russia is the most powerful country and everyone envy her! How did the ruble get stronger? The dollar is already jealous! And the Americans too! Alaska will soon be taken away from the USA! Well, it's still great! Why are you so worried about some kind of NATO? They don’t even have analogues that have no weapons, a non-replaceable leader and the strongest currency, such as the ruble, in service?!
And the Lithuanians are slowly checking sleeper after sleeper

I think this wheat war crisis is pure propaganda and nothing is going to happen any time sooner.
Most of the south Asian countries are agricultural countries. And having a less wheat is impossible thing. So I hope - lets for the time concentrate on achieving financial freedom.

[Wind_FURY]

Did anyone read the news about Sri Lanka? The country is currently in a state of anarchy, with its citizens protesting, and breaking inside the presidential residence. It started with a stupid government policy that they will stop importation of fertilizer in a bid to become the first country to be all organic in their agricultural sector. The result, FARMING YIELDS WENT DOWN 50%, causing a food shortage!

[Sithara007]

Did anyone read the news about Sri Lanka? The country is currently in a state of anarchy, with its citizens protesting, and breaking inside the presidential residence. It started with a stupid government policy that they will stop importation of fertilizer in a bid to become the first country to be all organic in their agricultural sector. The result, FARMING YIELDS WENT DOWN 50%, causing a food shortage!

That was one of the reasons. And it is a lesson for all those stupid tree huggers around the world. Protests are going on in the Netherlands right now, after the government introduced some similar step. Farmers are out of the roads protesting. And there is a good chance that the regime will be overthrown. These Green party guys are a curse to the world. In the name of environmental protection, they are just brining in more misery. What is the point in shutting down nuclear power plants, when nuclear energy is the most clean and cheap version of electricity that is available? And Green Party in Europe has been in the forefront to bring additional sanctions to Russia, which resulted in the cost of fertilizer going up by 3-4 times.

[Ebede]

there are two options left, either the Iranian government is lying in its statistics, or you're the one doing the lying.
But maybe, since the rial is doing a /100 or /1000, can't remember the zeros anymore,  against the dollar maybe a 80% increase in food price is the normal thing there, and locals call it a "small" rise.

Iran is still in comfortable position despite ban from USA , thanks to Iran internal unity and rich oil reserves. Iran is self sufficient in producing food items and electricity. Its even importing these things to its neighbours. I am not sure about Iran statistics but still Iran is far better then many countries of its region.

since i know of Iran it's a country that likes to fight in any form which i believe that they are not world powers. This country does Malta have economic Factor compared to others but what I know if you delete that the country comfort and demolish whatever thing they have but their statistics concerning a positive thing is not really recommended

[bakasabo]

This is amazing how everything is connected in the world. The Ukraine-Russian war causes more troubles outside contested territory, then inside. I think some countries are even feel pity that they took part in this war and now are involved into financial problems of whole world. They could have been sitting quietly at home, doing their own stuff. But now, as they have impose sanctions, they are hit with financial boomerang.

[bitgov]

This is amazing how everything is connected in the world. The Ukraine-Russian war causes more troubles outside contested territory, then inside. I think some countries are even feel pity that they took part in this war and now are involved into financial problems of whole world. They could have been sitting quietly at home, doing their own stuff. But now, as they have impose sanctions, they are hit with financial boomerang.

In all that war - the good take away is Russia is not stoppable. How they have started accepting Ruble for oil and gas trade is already a big game changer.
Russia have kept a tight control on their state bank and how they are bouncing back is exemplary also the way they have used their gold resources. They are going to fight back. Lesson learnt from this war is depend in your own resources.

[yhiaali3]

The real question is how each country will deal with this crisis. On what scale will conflicts erupt?

Unfortunately we are in a world like a jungle, the strong eat the weak and the big eat the small, this could be the answer to your question, it means that every country will deal with this crisis from the principle of narrow national interest first, every country will try to solve its problem at the expense of other countries, America for example It plans to destroy Russia in cooperation with NATO, but in fact it does not care about the suffering of Europe or the NATO countries as a result of the sanctions imposed on Russia, which led to the suffocation of Europe, while America is far from all this and is trying to exploit all parties to its advantage. European countries also may resort to concluding some understandings with Russia and sacrifice Ukraine, if necessary.
The struggle over food and natural resources may eventually lead the world to a third world war.

[stompix]

And this one is gold, I mean, even if you would have the meanest propaganda on your side you wouldn't be able to come up with stories like the reality in Russia. So after Europe was on the verge of collapse from lack of food and oil, the newly resurrected clone of McDonalds in Russia, has stopped serving french fries...

Directly from the source, rough google translation
https://vkusnoitochka.ru/articles/news/potato-temporarily-not-available/

In addition, it became impossible to import from markets that could become temporary suppliers of potatoes for enterprises in Russia.
According to our estimates, the major players in the market are facing similar difficulties, despite the fact that the standard of tubers used at Vkusno - i dot is higher than that of competitors. Potatoes will return to the menu of the network's enterprises in full at the beginning of the next harvest year, in the fall of 2022.

So till the next harvest, no more potatoes for you!!!

Meanwhile, in the other fortress resisting western imperialism, the galactic superpower of Iran:
https://www.radiofarda.com/a/expensive-iran-fruit/31911506.html

A member of the Board of Directors of the Beef Production and Distribution Union said on June 27 that the sale of veal meat has dropped by 20% in the past weeks. The head of the Federation of Food Industry had announced in early June that the sale of food industry products in the country would be halved.

Things are going so well that food products consumption will be halved since nobody afford them anymore. Of course, these guys are lying, who the hell are they, directors and heads of federations, we know by the above excel graph things are doing great:

The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Association of Dairy Products Industries also announced in the middle of June, referring to the 80% increase in the price of dairy products last month, that the consumption of dairy products in households has decreased by 20%

Propaganda is nice till it starts hitting you, all those claiming the west will be ruined, cheering that Europeans will freeze to death, will starve because of sanctions, I wonder how next spring will look for you, once reality strikes.

[Sithara007]

Propaganda is nice till it starts hitting you, all those claiming the west will be ruined, cheering that Europeans will freeze to death, will starve because of sanctions, I wonder how next spring will look for you, once reality strikes.

Did anyone claimed that the Europeans will freeze to death if the Russian pipeline gas flows are halted? Only around one-third of Europe's gas comes from Russia, so there is no point in saying such things. That said, a number of European manufacturing units have already closed down as a result of gas shortages. BASF is Germany is one of the examples. The Europeans are not going to freeze to death, but they will have to deal with millions of unemployed citizens pretty soon, if this crisis continues for some time.

[cabron]

They're all trying to block each other's trade route now to starve each other. Turkey is really walking on a thin line.

Meanwhile leaders are quiting their post, one was assasinated peace be upon Shinzo Abe while Biden comes back begging for gas in Iran and considers lifting tarriff on Chinese trade. Desparation will come.

[pooya87]

Protests are going on in the Netherlands right now, after the government introduced some similar step. Farmers are out of the roads protesting. And there is a good chance that the regime will be overthrown.

I saw something on twitter yesterday about Dutch farmers bringing a tank to their protest! Granted some said it was fake news but it got my attention to the protests in Netherlands and police shooting them which was very real!

In any case there are dominoes that are falling one after the other, Sri Lanka, Netherlands, Germany, France, ... and how the British government just fell apart over night! They thought they could exit European Union before the Russians attacked so that they could save themselves from the effects of that conflict on their own economy while other EU nations burnt. Then after EU got weak enough, come back as the "Savior". They never expected addition of 1.5 million homeless in only 3 months this year according to the Guardian!
Little did they know, it all affected England too, specially due to all the Pounds they'd printed. They also didn't expect their ally, US, would stab them in the back which is surprising considering how many times they've been stabbed. I still laugh when I think about how the British Royal Navy warship was begging the US Aircraft Carrier group a few miles away for help to stop us from seizing their ship and the US marines shitting their pants said their whole navy would sink if they got involved

P.S. Apparently Scotland is now talking about independence too! Considering most of England's energy comes from there, that makes it very interesting.

[stompix]

Propaganda is nice till it starts hitting you, all those claiming the west will be ruined, cheering that Europeans will freeze to death, will starve because of sanctions, I wonder how next spring will look for you, once reality strikes.

Did anyone claimed that the Europeans will freeze to death if the Russian pipeline gas flows are halted? Only around one-third of Europe's gas comes from Russia, so there is no point in saying such things.

You should really go and have that checked up, it's not the first time you forget your own words, or it might be a split personality, but since I'm a nice guy let me remind you of all the funny stupid things you were saying around here

The underground gas storages are at all time low and in case Russia doesn't send gas to Germany, then half of the population will freeze to death by the end of this year.

Remember now how you claimed that 40 million germans will freeze to death if the gas is turned off?  
And since we're on the subject of forgotten things you have predicted, the barrel at 200 and Ukraine getting conquered in half in a few weeks in April, do you still get those?

Meanwhile, probably the records tourists in Spain and Greece which are expected to break by 20% the pre covid record are probably there to catch a bit of heat for the winter. And maybe so are the ones working too, with EU reaching record employment despite all the collapses in the industry...
Or maybe they are on the beach cheering for the first grain vessels leaving Ukraine now that Russia has been kicked out of Snake Island and they are too afraid to come near the shore after the Moskva lesson?

PS.
Seriously, get that checked up, swallowing propaganda all day will do terrible things to you, in a few years at this pace you're going to forget your name and you're going to call yourself Peter the Great..

[Sithara007]

^^^ Barrel at $200 is still possible, if the West moves ahead with their stupid plans for price cap on Russian oil. Too bad that India and China have told them to GTFO. And as far as employment is concerned, the true impact will take some time to be visible on ground. Industries will start to layoff employees once losses accumulate beyond a certain threshold. They haven't yet reached that stage.

And congratulations for driving away Russians from the Snake island. The last time I heard about it, the Ukrainians tried to plant their flag there. Retreated after 5 minutes, with dozens of casualties.

[pooya87]

Diesel price rise is the next problem that farmers have to deal with which would decrease production leading to shortage and even more increased prices. It's not just gas prices that go up specially in US that is currently averaging at $5.14 the Diesel price is soaring and has gone up 57% over the past couple of months.


This doesn't just affect crops, it affects livestock too which we can clearly see in the increase meat prices in the West.

P.S. Speaking of US what is going on with the series of fires in food industry facilities all over America? There has been over 100 of them in the past year and they are only increasing in numbers. It's not just that, there are increasing number of fires in energy industry facilities too! The most recent one was in Oklahoma (5 days ago) which was so big that caused a 1.74 magnitude earthquake.