📯2026/27 Champions League Pool | ⚽️ Discussion | sponsor TBA

[buwaytress]

I will respond a little but just want the discussions to continue and mature. At some near point, perhaps the only real way to move forward is to put a vote to it, involving all of last year's participants. It does seem for now that there only is argument against this single aspect of penalty.

To clarify, this only affects outcome predictions. The scores prediction part seems to have settled. It no longer rewards dumb scores, it better rewards close scores, and it also rewards outsider scores.

But if I can try and summarise both sides of the penalty arguments:

For: It discourages YOLO patterns in the belief that without a penalty, the majority of users would YOLO.
Against: It discourages YOLO behaviour in the belief that with a penalty, the majority of users would make safe picks.

Both extremes suggest boring behaviour (everyone going for high odds or everyone going for low odds). I actually think, from cursory looks, overestimate what would happen. The results of previous seasons, and the last, seem to demonstrate winners who took risks as well as built leads.

There were significant changes in the leaderboard:
- without a penalty, when YOLOers jumped up
- with a penalty, when top players incurred penalties

Last year's winner took bold risks especially in the first half of the season, and then for the last MDs, protected their position with mostly low value picks. In a manner of speaking, this is a typical top player behaviour whatever the system. I myself took early risks, and saved up stakes, and then spread most of my stakes in latter stages, giving 1 or 2 to large odds, but failed, though managed to avoid penalties.

Personally, I myself was against penalties, but I do feel it added a layer of necessary thought to how the latter stages went. I do agree, however, that early bad luck with penalties seemed to eliminate players by self-exclusion (fuck me, no way I can catch up now).

How would you guys feel with a middle ground?
Either a maximum penalty (say, 2x-5% = -10%), so you can fail 2 rounds and then yolo all the way without a worsening disadvantage).
Or a smaller penalty per round (say 2.% per round so even if you fail 4 rounds you only have -10% penalty).

The goal here is to get maximum participation, after all, without encouraging same pattern behaviour that leads to Superbru boringness.

I'll put up a vote/poll soon.

[arallmuus]

Personally, I myself was against penalties, but I do feel it added a layer of necessary thought to how the latter stages went. I do agree, however, that early bad luck with penalties seemed to eliminate players by self-exclusion (fuck me, no way I can catch up now).

Penalties are needed otherwise its pointless to go with the moderate odds. Simply put, everyone will just go for the high odds since there is nothing that holds them back.

Or a smaller penalty per round (say 2.% per round so even if you fail 4 rounds you only have -10% penalty).

This is actually better than having max penalty. There are alot of rounds in UCL, failing two times chasing the high odds then having the entire season to try it again without having to worry about any penalty since you have already get it on earlier rounds sounds pretty weird

or simply just go with the last penalty structure from the last season? Im not sure what changed but the last changes on mid-ish season actually were pretty good, iirc I didnt suffer that high penalties again after that previous changes

[darxiaomi]

I think one side of the problem is "philosophical" let me explain.

On the one hand, we have to consider whether we're playing simply to win money, or if, since it's a community competition, it's also about truly demonstrating who's the best. And since it's really more about showing who's the best, but at the same time the money makes it interesting and encourages people to really put in the effort, it leads us to a bit of a dead end.

It's not about someone winning because they make a crazy bet with x45645845 odds in a single match and then miss everything. But we also can't fall into something boring that doesn't reward risk.

So for me im gonna support whatever you decide uncle buwa. Since is not an easy choice and is not easy to fix.


And yes i know my answer didnt give anything new but i have to said it.

So for me penalties has to stay the main point is how much they weight.

[KTChampions]

How would you guys feel with a middle ground?
Either a maximum penalty (say, 2x-5% = -10%), so you can fail 2 rounds and then yolo all the way without a worsening disadvantage).
Or a smaller penalty per round (say 2.% per round so even if you fail 4 rounds you only have -10% penalty).

The goal here is to get maximum participation, after all, without encouraging same pattern behaviour that leads to Superbru boringness.

I'll put up a vote/poll soon.

So for me penalties has to stay the main point is how much they weight.

These are very precise and correct questions!
Look, the entire top 10 scored at least 300 points (Hpampuz was 2 points short). It turns out that a penalty takes away 300x0.05 = minimum 15 points from you. In this case, you should risk odds of 2.5 (40% without taking into account the bookmaker's margin) to get the same 15 points by betting 6.
This is a terrible deal, as in 40% of cases (more like a third - 33% due to margins) you'll gain 15 points, and in 66% of cases you'll lose 15 points. This is not a good deal at all, the balance must at least be corrected if we are left with penalties.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I’ve performed poorly in this pool every time

I had an obscene amount of penalty points in both seasons. Most people are suggesting penalty points need to stay. I’d be fine with them being removed to be honest.

Maybe it’s just my bias speaking though, after being destroyed by penalties.

[LTU_btc]

Damn guys, you have really deep discussion there. Personally, I don't care that much whether we will have penalties or no, I'm fine with whatever you will decide. Maybe penalties is right thing it and it makes things a bit more similar like you would play with real money. But if you will remove it, I'm completely fine with it.
I'm someone who don't make YOLO bets. Not because I'm afraid of penalties. Simply because it doesn't work for me. Even without penalties I wouldend with 0 points always while making such bets. Last season I ended in prize spot without taking big risks. But without taking big risks it's impossible to win whole thing.

Sorry, I will interrupt discussion with comment about qualifers. For me biggest surprise that Lech almost secured place in next round by beating Aarhus 1:4 away. Also, didn't expected that Hearts will bedestroyed by Sturm 4:0
Egnatia 3:3 Celje - would like to hear comment from you @swogerino .

[igebotz]

I’ve performed poorly in this pool every time

I had an obscene amount of penalty points in both seasons. Most people are suggesting penalty points need to stay. I’d be fine with them being removed to be honest.

Maybe it’s just my bias speaking though, after being destroyed by penalties.

I was the first on that leaderboard; I incurred more Penalty points than anyone I could remember and also never made it into TOP 10 since this new format- I'm yet to crack thia format.

It was fun the way it was but not for me hahah and if I had the power to remove one thing it'd certainly be the penalty points. Nevertheless I'm fine with whatever rules here. Let's go!!!

[xLays]

I’ve performed poorly in this pool every time

I had an obscene amount of penalty points in both seasons. Most people are suggesting penalty points need to stay. I’d be fine with them being removed to be honest.

Maybe it’s just my bias speaking though, after being destroyed by penalties.

I'm not trying to make a negative comment about how this pool was run, but if penalty points weren't part of the gameplay, we probably would have had much better chance of winning. JK But yeah the leaderboard could have looked very different for sure if penalty is not part of how the pool works.
To be honest, I didn't fully understand how the penalty worked at the beginning of the pool, and that's my own fault for not making it clear to me. But yeah If I had understood it from the start, I think the leaderboard might have been different for me.

I'm sure I wasn't the only one who didn't fully understand the penalty at the beginning of the pool. I read before asking so many participants asking about how really penalty works.

[notblox1]

How would you guys feel with a middle ground?
Either a maximum penalty (say, 2x-5% = -10%), so you can fail 2 rounds and then yolo all the way without a worsening disadvantage).
Or a smaller penalty per round (say 2.% per round so even if you fail 4 rounds you only have -10% penalty).

Middle ground is good for me.
If I had to choose to vote for one I would probably go with maximum penalty so I can fail two rounds.
You cant satisfy everyone and losers like Snake and Mafia will always complain 

I’ve performed poorly in this pool every time

You and me both 
Last time I ruined everything in last few rounds, so I need to lower my expectations for next season and prepare better.

[cryptofrka]

I think most of the issues come from players that did not read the rules, incurred early penalties and then couldn't recover.

Early penalties are tough to recover from, yes. That does not mean I agree that going safe is the way to go.

Avoiding penalties is crucial and yet in Top 10 we have:

0 penalties - 4 players (1st, 4th, 6th, 7th)
1 penalty - 2 players (2nd, 3rd)
2 penalties - 3 players (5th, 8th, 9th)
4 penalties - 1 player (10th)

Smartvirus in 11th place has 278 points with 2 penalties, leea-1334 has 321 point with 2 penalties.
I have 20 more points with a penalty than Trofo without it and 30 more than LTU_btc who also avoided the penalty.

This clearly shows that the current system works. Whether the community wants to dismantle it or not is another thing.
It is also a good, robust, well analysed system that offers a variety of playstyles.

If we're changing it, so be it. Let's just change it for the better - YOLO swingers are the destruction of every fun contest. It's literally no fun for anybody.

[leea-1334]

OK so I know I said I did not prefer a penalty,,, but it is something to say that I won a prize when there WAS a penalty so in a way that system forced me to change my picks after getting 2 penalties so maybe there is something inside it that works.

Honestly,,, I will play no matter what. Even when I was offline in forum 2 years I always played the main pools and BSFL and not gonna stop UCL the format is simple and yet challenging, among all the pools with score picks, this is the one I like best.

So same for me as @notblox1 if I vote, I vote for middle ground of MAX penalty (2 rounds and that is it). But only if we have to change anything. I personally appreciate the way this pool seems to be the only one that changes according to the moods of us and we have to be mindful it can be very annoying for the organizer 

And to speak of YOLO swingers,,, I agree sadly with mafia that would kill most competitions, this is not related but Beat The Bookie, as much as I liked it, without a limit in place we would have YOLO whales coming again and again. I would have stopped even earlier Actually a penalty system there would have been necessary if it was a competition with 15 rounds and there were 5 whales. Luckily WC only had 8 rounds and maybe 2 whales

[Smartvirus]

Early penalties are tough to recover from, yes. That does not mean I agree that going safe is the way to go.

Smartvirus in 11th place has 278 points with 2 penalties, leea-1334 has 321 point with 2 penalties.
I have 20 more points with a penalty than Trofo without it and 30 more than LTU_btc who also avoided the penalty.

This clearly shows that the current system works. Whether the community wants to dismantle it or not is another thing.
It is also a good, robust, well analysed system that offers a variety of playstyles.

I understood the penalties better when I started seeing the effect on my team, it’s not very exciting but, it also cautions you not to be too reckless in predictions while, seeking that big boost.
How I ended in the 11th spot, I leave that to the finals but, it was a good run nonetheless, don’t really see much reason in making any adjustments for the penalties, few more seasons and we can get accustomed to it for sure.

[Trofo]

And to speak of YOLO swingers,,, I agree sadly with mafia that would kill most competitions, this is not related but Beat The Bookie, as much as I liked it, without a limit in place we would have YOLO whales coming again and again. I would have stopped even earlier Actually a penalty system there would have been necessary if it was a competition with 15 rounds and there were 5 whales. Luckily WC only had 8 rounds and maybe 2 whales

Whales in BTB? Whales were hobbled with 100$ buy back. That kills whale behavior immediately. Without it, you would see 1000$ or 5000$ tickets in last round. Easiest way to win competitions like this and actually what happens when bookies organize them. I remember eSports one on Sportsbet. I had dailly volume over 1000$ for a month and collected like 300 points and kept maybe 3rd place. Than last day 2 guys drop in and have like 3000 points. That was bets for millions.

[KTChampions]

Whales in BTB? Whales were hobbled with 100$ buy back. That kills whale behavior immediately. Without it, you would see 1000$ or 5000$ tickets in last round. Easiest way to win competitions like this and actually what happens when bookies organize them. I remember eSports one on Sportsbet. I had dailly volume over 1000$ for a month and collected like 300 points and kept maybe 3rd place. Than last day 2 guys drop in and have like 3000 points. That was bets for millions.

There's even less point in talking about whales here. As far as I understand, the whole mechanics remain the same - we can't control the entire pot, and we only bet 6 points per round. What whales or Yolo bets should we be wary of here? Moreover, the maximum multiplier will be controlled by buwaytress if I remember correctly, last year he was not generous with outcomes where the multiplier was high (especially in the final part of the season). In general, in my opinion, there is already excessive protection from risky bettors, at least penalties should be removed/weakened.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

So ultimately, taking very few risks and playing it relatively safe is going to get you with half a chance of finishing in the prize positions?

Can I safely assume that?

I started badly and never really recovered. Didn’t think at the time I was really taking huge risks, not until late in the season when I was totally out of it.

[arallmuus]

So ultimately, taking very few risks and playing it relatively safe is going to get you with half a chance of finishing in the prize positions?

Can I safely assume that?

I started badly and never really recovered. Didn’t think at the time I was really taking huge risks, not until late in the season when I was totally out of it.

Lets do a simple math shall we. Based on the last season data

1st place had 359.29 points
10th place had 298.04 points

The average of 1st and 10th place would be 328.7 points now divide this into 17 rounds then you get 19.4 points.

So maintaining atleast 19.4 points on each rounds on average would most likely guarantee you to finish in the prizes position. Obviously there is no way to maintain atleast 19.4 points on every rounds especially the late rounds because the number of games are lower compared to the early rounds but most of us could score well above 19.4 points on the group stage

The thing with this competition is that, we are using points so practically we think there is no risk whatsoever for us as compared to using real money. This is also why most of us just go wild after just few rounds trying to chase the top packs while losing in the long run because of the penalties

[KTChampions]

Lets do a simple math shall we. Based on the last season data

1st place had 359.29 points
10th place had 298.04 points

The average of 1st and 10th place would be 328.7 points now divide this into 17 rounds then you get 19.4 points.

So maintaining atleast 19.4 points on each rounds on average would most likely guarantee you to finish in the prizes position. Obviously there is no way to maintain atleast 19.4 points on every rounds especially the late rounds because the number of games are lower compared to the early rounds but most of us could score well above 19.4 points on the group stage

The thing with this competition is that, we are using points so practically we think there is no risk whatsoever for us as compared to using real money. This is also why most of us just go wild after just few rounds trying to chase the top packs while losing in the long run because of the penalties

You forgot a huge detail - out of these 19.4 points, 6 are from the second type of forecast.
If we don't take risks, we'll just get these 6 points on average. If we take risks, each penalty (if we don't remove them) will destroy 5% of your total for the entire tournament! If we take your average of 328.4, then the penalty is 16.4 Two penalties throw you out of the top 3, 3 or more completely destroy you.
This is a huge imbalance and there is no point in taking risks in the second part of the forecast.

Out of curiosity, I checked Hhampuz's results - if not for the penalty, he would have won the tournament. He doesn't have any Yolo bets, he won x9.75 once, x6-x7 a few times, nothing unusual.
Now look at what he was penalised for:



Would anyone call this a crazy, risky bet? These are normal bets, just average, it's just that randomness played against him.

Damn, I can't stop counting. I was wondering how much he got from the second part of the predictions:

5.6+8+29.25+5.85+18.5+10.5+26+8.8+7.75+11.9+9.9+5.45+5.55 = 153.05
Plus he earned 4 penalties which cost him 74.51 points.
In total, his benefit from participating in the second part of forecastion was 153.05 - 74.51 = 78.54 

He just worked in vain because if you do nothing you should get 96.9 points on average. What's the point of a competition where it's more profitable to do nothing?

[leea-1334]

And to speak of YOLO swingers,,, I agree sadly with mafia that would kill most competitions, this is not related but Beat The Bookie, as much as I liked it, without a limit in place we would have YOLO whales coming again and again. I would have stopped even earlier Actually a penalty system there would have been necessary if it was a competition with 15 rounds and there were 5 whales. Luckily WC only had 8 rounds and maybe 2 whales

Whales in BTB? Whales were hobbled with 100$ buy back. That kills whale behavior immediately. Without it, you would see 1000$ or 5000$ tickets in last round. Easiest way to win competitions like this and actually what happens when bookies organize them. I remember eSports one on Sportsbet. I had dailly volume over 1000$ for a month and collected like 300 points and kept maybe 3rd place. Than last day 2 guys drop in and have like 3000 points. That was bets for millions.

Not really, it is less the amount of penalty or rebuy but the limited times to rebuy that worked, also it worked in short 8 round format but a whale has no concern over -negative profit. They will keep doing rebuy to make 5x then 10x then 15x then 20x if they were allowed unlimited rebuy.

So like I said, the limit in place worked But if it went many rounds like 38 week season, you would need more limits.

So ultimately, taking very few risks and playing it relatively safe is going to get you with half a chance of finishing in the prize positions?

Can I safely assume that?

I started badly and never really recovered. Didn’t think at the time I was really taking huge risks, not until late in the season when I was totally out of it.

I actually got penalties by making the wrong safe picks, and as I got the penalties, I made more and more safe picks. But it was very hard, either way. The top prize for sure needs some big risks also, like how @mia did, got lucky early with big risks and then played safe.

[arallmuus]

-snip

You forgot a huge detail - out of these 19.4 points, 6 are from the second type of forecast.

Yeah I left out this part and its also the vital part where most people get their penalties as well as their huge points from but you get the geez of this strawman math 

Two penalties throw you out of the top 3, 3 or more completely destroy you.

This is actually true. Last season top 4 has less than 2 penalties

Would anyone call this a crazy, risky bet? These are normal bets, just average, it's just that randomness played against him.

Aside from Van Djik to score there, I'd say yeah its Hhampuz being unlucky there as usual 

So I guess we should find a better formula for the penalties? need to find something in between for sure

[cryptofrka]

The question we should be asking ourselves is 'how do we pick'.

If the majority answer is 'I pick lowest odds to be safe' - not good.
If the majority answer is 'I always pick high odds for their value' - not good.

When the majority answer is 'I spend my time looking for value between the listed options', then that's what we want to keep.
For me, it was always trying to find that value while still trying to survive rounds without penalties.

What I'd maybe do is remove the 1.15 or 1.25 odds entirely - these are the safeties that are not balanced and give a free pass.
Reducing penalties might be an option, I'd also consider a cap on penalties.

But as long as a guy from the bottom can strike lucky in the last 2 rounds and win with yolo bets - that's bad. If you've been shit throughout 14 out of 17 rounds - nope, you don't deserve a chance at all.