2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions

[KTChampions]

Interestingly, those who bet on winners in nominations where there are no obvious favorites are guided by what? It is impossible to guess what is in the head of academicians, box office receipts and public ratings also do not matter. Does intuition (gambling) remain? Probably these bets are made just for fun, because serious analysis here (as in sports, for example) is impossible.

I do not think it would be impossible to know what's on the minds of the academy. In my opinion as well it is quite easy, you ask them and they tell you. You may imagine that it's a secretly done thing, but I think it is obvious and being shared to everyone. Go back as many years as possible and see the odds of the best picture for example and how many times the one that was pose to win ended up winning.

I can tell you that 90% of the time, unless something major happens; the one with the best odds will be the winner, that is always the case. Hence, I believe that it will be like that this year too. My bet is on the fabelmans, it is "sort of biography" type of deal, so I wagered on it.

And how often do you personally interact with academics who vote for the Oscars? 
As for the fact that the favorites win in most cases, it is natural - otherwise they would not be favorites. The same thing happens in sports - if you look into the depths of years, you can find very few seasons when a non-favorite won in a round-robin tournament. Even in tennis, where the games are knockout and there is no room for error, the favorites mostly win.

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[SquallLeonhart]

There are some differences in odds of the Oscar awards in different categories. For best actor, the Golden Globe awards have Austin Butler as a very big favorite for his performance as an actor in a drama role in Elvis. The odds for him in the Oscar awards is 4.00.

I suspect Austin Butler being such a big favorite has something with Brendan Fraser saying that he won't attend the Golden Globe ceremony even if he gets nominated because he claimed to be sexually assaulted back in 2003 by the former Golden Globes president Philip Berk so I guess that's their way of getting back at him.

Imagine how terrible that must be. Golden Globes had someone who sexually assaulted Brandon Fraser, and instead of coming up with a way to apologize and fix the situation, they decided not to give him the award as a response to his claims. Doubling down on their horribleness basically.

But to be fair, the famous people we know right now are probably having decent enough life but Hollywood as a whole is a power trip place where everyone tries to get other to do something in return of fame. That black casting couch thing is very much real and definitely a problem in the industry. So it is not just the golden globes that are in the wrong here, it's the whole industry that turns blind eye to it.

[ChiBitCTy]

I'm currently on vacation and getting caught up on all the latest and greatest movies that have gone on this past year.  Tomorrow I've got a ticket for a $7 entry to Wakanda Forever (the nice lazy boy seats) and plan on going to see Avatar the day after or the following.  Plan on watching The Whale really soon as well.  Certainly will have to put the Spielberg movie on my watch list as well.  Will report back for my picks!

Never thought that the ticket prices here in India would be higher than those in the United States. If I want to watch Avatar: The Way of Water, then I need to spend around $12 to purchase tickets for 3D IMAX. Cheaper options are also available, but those are 2D or 3D without IMAX. Cheapest tickets are available for around $2.50. BTW, this movie has already collected more than $2 billion from all around the world and may end up overtaking Avatar 1 by today. At this point, Avatar 1 has a gross collection of $2,922 million compared to $2,797 million for Avatar 2.

The $7 dollar entry fee for Wakanda Forever is at a "specialty" theatre where they've got just 50 seats and they all recline and what not.  This movie is also close to being out of theatres so it was $7 for a during the day ticket.  The screen quality is also pretty crappy.  I do plan to go so Avatar soon at my local high end theatre with IMAX and all that, those tickets are currently $16.19, but I'm guessing this does not cover taxes, so it's probably close to $18. 

[Sithara007]

The $7 dollar entry fee for Wakanda Forever is at a "specialty" theatre where they've got just 50 seats and they all recline and what not.  This movie is also close to being out of theatres so it was $7 for a during the day ticket.  The screen quality is also pretty crappy.  I do plan to go so Avatar soon at my local high end theatre with IMAX and all that, those tickets are currently $16.19, but I'm guessing this does not cover taxes, so it's probably close to $18. 

OK.. got it. So in your country, the tax rate is somewhere around 10%. Here we have this shitty thing called "entertainment tax" which adds an additional 28% over the original ticket rates. And this is not just applicable for movie tickets, but for tickets to sports events and stage shows as well. Then there are additional state level charges levied on top of this. For example, one of my friends from the state of Kerala told me that the ticket for a cricket match costs ₹1,445 (original price is ₹1,000 and the tax levied stands at ₹445).

BTW, Avatar 2 has grossed $1,730,906,779 till now from the global box office. At this point, it is the 7th highest grossing film of all time.

[bbc.reporter]

There are some differences in odds of the Oscar awards in different categories. For best actor, the Golden Globe awards have Austin Butler as a very big favorite for his performance as an actor in a drama role in Elvis. The odds for him in the Oscar awards is 4.00.

I suspect Austin Butler being such a big favorite has something with Brendan Fraser saying that he won't attend the Golden Globe ceremony even if he gets nominated because he claimed to be sexually assaulted back in 2003 by the former Golden Globes president Philip Berk so I guess that's their way of getting back at him.

Colin Farrell is another very big favorite for his acting in a comedy in the Banshees of Inisherin with odds of 1.09, however, his odds for best actor in the Oscar awards is 3.00.

In this case, odds are so different because Oscar has only one best actor category so there he has to go against Brendan Fraser.

Ke Huy Quan won the Golden Globe for best supporting actor for the movie Everything Everywhere All At Once. The first name he mentioned in his thank you speech was Steven Spielberg and Spielberg acknowledged him. Are you scratching your head? You should watch Indiana Jones And The Temple Of Doom again hehehehehe. Ke Huy Quan was the actor playing the role of Short Round.

[Rikafip]

Ke Huy Quan won the Golden Globe for best supporting actor for the movie Everything Everywhere All At Once. The first name he mentioned in his thank you speech was Steven Spielberg and Spielberg acknowledged him. Are you scratching your head? You should watch Indiana Jones And The Temple Of Doom again hehehehehe. Ke Huy Quan was the actor playing the role of Short Round.

Hah I had no idea that actor was Short Round, and I watched both movies in the last few months. Usually when I like the movie I check on IMDb to find more about actors/director/screenwriters if they are unknown to me, but since I stopped Everything Everywhere All At Once somewehre in the middle as I just couldn't stand all that chaos, I never bothered to check it. Anyway, thanks for that info.

For those interested, here is the link with all Golden Globe winners, it may help you choosing Oscar bets https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/golden-globes-2023-winners-list-1235294541/

[Sithara007]

Here in India, everyone is celebrating after a song (Naatu Naatu) from one of the local movies (RRR) won Golden Globe award for the best original song. The composer (Koduri Maragathamani Keeravaani) will be receiving the award and this is the first time that a movie from India has won a Golden Globe award. Naatu Naatu also becomes the first ever Asian song to win Golden Globe. I just hope that the momentum will be carried forward to the Oscars as well. Any award during the Oscars would be an added sweetener.

[FanEagle]

Golden globes are not an indicator for the Oscars. There is a very clear difference between popularity and artistic approach. Like for example the whole thing with the difference is the winner of best actor, Austin Butler looks like 6.00 odds here, third, not even second and yet we still see him be the winner, along with Colin Farrel as well, who is second but no Brandon Fraser anywhere.

All in all, if it is a movie that is based on making the acting shine more than the story, there is a good chance for Oscars, or if there is a good political message that tells a story about a time that was normal back then and seen as such a bad period now, there is a good chance there too.

[Rikafip]

Like for example the whole thing with the difference is the winner of best actor, Austin Butler looks like 6.00 odds here, third, not even second and yet we still see him be the winner, along with Colin Farrel as well, who is second but no Brandon Fraser anywhere.

I already explained the (imho) reason for such a big difference between Golden Globe odds and Oscar odds for best actor award but here it is again.

First of all, Golden Globes have two different awards for the best actor: "Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama" and "Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy" while Oscar has only one, which automatically means that for example Austin Butler and Colin Farrel can't go against each other. 2nd reason why odds on Austin Butler were so low is because Brendan Fraser (his only serious contender) has serious beef with Golden Globes organization (he accused their former president of sexual assault) and said that he has no plans of even attending the ceremony so of course no one expected Brendan Fraser to win, which reflected in lower odds for Austin Butler (he did a good job in "Elvis" but I personally didn't like the movie much, mainly because Baz Luhrmann's directing style).

[Theones]

Here in India, everyone is celebrating after a song (Naatu Naatu) from one of the local movies (RRR) won Golden Globe award for the best original song. The composer (Koduri Maragathamani Keeravaani) will be receiving the award and this is the first time that a movie from India has won a Golden Globe award. Naatu Naatu also becomes the first ever Asian song to win Golden Globe. I just hope that the momentum will be carried forward to the Oscars as well. Any award during the Oscars would be an added sweetener.

I have watched this movie - and this movie RRR is the worse movie I ever watched so much fantasy and over imaginative. And one man being having so much of super natural powers. And the song got the Golden Globe award. i fast Fwded the song.
Indian most of the time get more than what they deserve. 

[keyscore44]

Golden globes are not an indicator for the Oscars. There is a very clear difference between popularity and artistic approach. Like for example the whole thing with the difference is the winner of best actor, Austin Butler looks like 6.00 odds here, third, not even second and yet we still see him be the winner, along with Colin Farrel as well, who is second but no Brandon Fraser anywhere.

All in all, if it is a movie that is based on making the acting shine more than the story, there is a good chance for Oscars, or if there is a good political message that tells a story about a time that was normal back then and seen as such a bad period now, there is a good chance there too.

I am amazed to read the post which says a song of film RRR has won the golden globe award - there is nothing interesting in that song and the film is a flop
even then the song won the golden globe award. strange and very almaring

[bbc.reporter]

Golden globes are not an indicator for the Oscars. There is a very clear difference between popularity and artistic approach. Like for example the whole thing with the difference is the winner of best actor, Austin Butler looks like 6.00 odds here, third, not even second and yet we still see him be the winner, along with Colin Farrel as well, who is second but no Brandon Fraser anywhere.

All in all, if it is a movie that is based on making the acting shine more than the story, there is a good chance for Oscars, or if there is a good political message that tells a story about a time that was normal back then and seen as such a bad period now, there is a good chance there too.

You are correct, it is not. The Oscar awards and the Golden Globe awards have different groups of artists and workers from the movie industry who vote for their candidates. The politics and the agenda is also different hehehe. However, we should always look for those changes in the odds. Brendan Fraser's odds for best actor has changed to 2.25, Colin Farrell is 2.62 and Austin Butler 2.75.

Also for best picture, the Fabelmans odds has changed to 3.50, Everything Everywhere All At Once changed to 2.75 and The Banshees of Inisherin to 2.50. This might be best picture for Banshees, I reckon. I speculate that when the official nominations are announced, Banshees will be on 1.80 or lower.

Source https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets

[keyscore44]

Golden globes are not an indicator for the Oscars. There is a very clear difference between popularity and artistic approach. Like for example the whole thing with the difference is the winner of best actor, Austin Butler looks like 6.00 odds here, third, not even second and yet we still see him be the winner, along with Colin Farrel as well, who is second but no Brandon Fraser anywhere.

All in all, if it is a movie that is based on making the acting shine more than the story, there is a good chance for Oscars, or if there is a good political message that tells a story about a time that was normal back then and seen as such a bad period now, there is a good chance there too.

You are correct, it is not. The Oscar awards and the Golden Globe awards have different groups of artists and workers from the movie industry who vote for their candidates. The politics and the agenda is also different hehehe. However, we should always look for those changes in the odds. Brendan Fraser's odds for best actor has changed to 2.25, Colin Farrell is 2.62 and Austin Butler 2.75.

Also for best picture, the Fabelmans odds has changed to 3.50, Everything Everywhere All At Once changed to 2.75 and The Banshees of Inisherin to 2.50. This might be best picture for Banshees, I reckon. I speculate that when the official nominations are announced, Banshees will be on 1.80 or lower.

Source https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets

there was a time when we used to watch the award ceremonies - but now even the Oscar too is loosing the charm
There are so many awards ceremonies - yet there is little interest - last time the drama during Oscar award ceremony was something which made people notice that Oscar happened.

[darewaller]

As for the fact that the favorites win in most cases, it is natural - otherwise they would not be favorites. The same thing happens in sports - if you look into the depths of years, you can find very few seasons when a non-favorite won in a round-robin tournament. Even in tennis, where the games are knockout and there is no room for error, the favorites mostly win.

It's true that in any competition, including the Academy Awards, the favourites often have the best odds of winning. This is because the favourites are typically the films or performances that have received the most critical acclaim, have the most buzz, and have a strong track record of winning other awards.

It's also true that it's not impossible to know what is on the minds of the members of academy juries who vote for the Oscars. While the voting process is private and the academy doesn't release the results of the voting, there are many sources of information such as industry experts, critics, and insiders who can provide insight into the thinking of the academy members. However, it's important to note that the final decision is up to the members and it's not possible to know for sure who will win until the ceremony.

[Theones]

Here in India, everyone is celebrating after a song (Naatu Naatu) from one of the local movies (RRR) won Golden Globe award for the best original song. The composer (Koduri Maragathamani Keeravaani) will be receiving the award and this is the first time that a movie from India has won a Golden Globe award. Naatu Naatu also becomes the first ever Asian song to win Golden Globe. I just hope that the momentum will be carried forward to the Oscars as well. Any award during the Oscars would be an added sweetener.

its been three days I have read the post that RRR song won the Golden globe award - I really doubt the Golden globe jeury 
I still have no shame in admitting that this is the worse movie I have ever watched !! Why then they got golden globe award? even the song is too over exaggerated

[Sithara007]

I am amazed to read the post which says a song of film RRR has won the golden globe award - there is nothing interesting in that song and the film is a flop
even then the song won the golden globe award. strange and very almaring

If you don't like the film, I can understand. The film is about the resistance by Indian freedom fighters against the British colonial administration. But don't claim that the film was a flop, or the song was not popular. It was a blockbuster at the box office here in India, and currently ranks as the 3rd highest collecting Indian movie at the global box office (behind Dangal and Baahubali 2). Also the song is wildly popular in India, and the YouTube video has clocked 114 million views. I can understand if you claim that the movie is not popular outside India, but then India is home to 1/7th of the world's population.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Here in India, everyone is celebrating after a song (Naatu Naatu) from one of the local movies (RRR) won Golden Globe award for the best original song. The composer (Koduri Maragathamani Keeravaani) will be receiving the award and this is the first time that a movie from India has won a Golden Globe award. Naatu Naatu also becomes the first ever Asian song to win Golden Globe. I just hope that the momentum will be carried forward to the Oscars as well. Any award during the Oscars would be an added sweetener.

In particular, I really like watching movies from India, even their musicals are different, I can't deny that the actresses are too beautiful and when they show something of their culture it seems sensational to me, I like everything that is from India, plus it has that touch that it is a very different geographical area, some say that some of its plants and its medicine is quite curative, in fact, there are many that have an exclusive business model, they import medicine to South America, especially the vaccines that are for babies, since they are of excellent quality, then India and its cinema is very exciting, what happens is that in the cinema that reaches Hollywood, the cinema that comes locally is not very relevant.

[Slow death]

Here in India, everyone is celebrating after a song (Naatu Naatu) from one of the local movies (RRR) won Golden Globe award for the best original song. The composer (Koduri Maragathamani Keeravaani) will be receiving the award and this is the first time that a movie from India has won a Golden Globe award. Naatu Naatu also becomes the first ever Asian song to win Golden Globe. I just hope that the momentum will be carried forward to the Oscars as well. Any award during the Oscars would be an added sweetener.

its been three days I have read the post that RRR song won the Golden globe award - I really doubt the Golden globe jeury 
I still have no shame in admitting that this is the worse movie I have ever watched !! Why then they got golden globe award? even the song is too over exaggerated

this is undoubtedly a case where we all have to ask the following question:

- are the people who vote in good mental health?

after asking this question we have to see the people who voted and know their psychological background something like the choices and reasons that make these people choose a certain choice because in recent years I have seen each thing more ridiculous than the other being voted on and I am wondering who are the people who are voting? because honestly this is a close path, very close, they vote nonsense things, at least for me I don't see anything interesting in this video, of course it may have some cultural aspect of india, but in this video there is nothing interesting

[Sithara007]

this is undoubtedly a case where we all have to ask the following question:

- are the people who vote in good mental health?

after asking this question we have to see the people who voted and know their psychological background something like the choices and reasons that make these people choose a certain choice because in recent years I have seen each thing more ridiculous than the other being voted on and I am wondering who are the people who are voting? because honestly this is a close path, very close, they vote nonsense things, at least for me I don't see anything interesting in this video, of course it may have some cultural aspect of india, but in this video there is nothing interesting

Personal preferences differ from individual to individual. I made a post about the song, because it is very rare to have a film from India getting shortlisted for any of the global awards. And for the Oscars, there is 0.000% chance that any of the films will even get nominated. That said, if the Oscars claim that they represent the entire globe, then they need to be inclusive. As I mentioned previously, this song has gathered well over 100 million views in YouTube and the movie is one of the highest grossing Indian films ever made. Anyway, let's move on and discuss about the main topic. Afterall, Golden Globe and Oscars are as different as chalk and cheese.

[Rikafip]

after asking this question we have to see the people who voted and know their psychological background something like the choices and reasons that make these people choose a certain choice because in recent years I have seen each thing more ridiculous than the other being voted on and I am wondering who are the people who are voting?

Here it is, list of 105 members of HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) that are voting for Golden Globe. In short, those are bunch of journalists all over the world and its much different from Oscar as 80% of Academy members are Americans + there's like almost 10k of them.


About the Oscar, I see that odds (I am checking at nicerodds) on Everything Everywhere All At Once keep dropping, probably because they won 5 Critics' Choice Awards and the same thing happening with Brendan Fraser. Voting for nominees ended yesterday so now we have ton wait until 24th for the nominations.