2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions

[Rikafip]

Have you already seen the croatian entry ?   Those guys are really crazy! I love that, I think they can surprise everybody and finish in the top 10.

Since I am from Croatia of course I heard the song, its the main topic over here. We usually send boring songs, but this is the first time we sent someone as crazy as the guys from Let 3   These guys are old rock band that has cult status here and are usually very provocative so something like this was expected from them. They probably even had to tone it down because of Eurovision song contest rules.
 

Well if people are interested and if nobody opens a thread I will do it in the coming days I think.

Hah it doesn't hurt trying but I don't think that there will be much interest as rarely anyone outside of Europe cares about it.

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[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. Is there a Ukranian candidate for Eurovision?

Of course there is, thinking about betting on them?

I read recently an article on one Croatian news portal and they said that Ukrainians are again favorites (they won the last year's competition as well). Not sure if that ever happened, country winning it two times in a row. Since this is off topic I won't continue further on the subject.

Create the thread! We can do the research and continue the discussions there. This thread will be locked 1 week after the Oscar awards ceremony and it will be better to have a separate thread for different entertainment betting events hehe.

I sent @tyKiwanuka a private message before and asked him if he was creating another thread again for Eurovision but it appears that he was very busy.

Also, it appears that there is another storyline being created. This storyline is more right wing that endorses patriotism and encourages the youth to be recruited to the military. How many of Oscar voters are right wing? Hollywood has gone far left and this is making moderate left wingers appear like moderate right wingers hehehehehe.



“Everything Everywhere All at Once” led the Oscar nominations with 11 and is currently the decisive front-runner to win Best Picture according to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users as of this writing. The question is, what could possibly beat it? Right now Golden Globe champs “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “The Fabelmans” rank second and third, respectively. “Top Gun: Maverick” follows in fourth place, but might we be underestimating the high-flying sequel?

On paper, “Top Gun: Maverick” doesn’t look like your typical Oscar winner. First off, it’s a sequel, and the only sequels that have ever won Best Picture were “The Godfather Part II” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” — and some might not even consider “Return of the King” a sequel in the traditional sense, but rather the completion of a single planned-out story. Second, “Maverick” is a summer blockbuster.

Source https://www.goldderby.com/article/2023/oscars-best-picture-top-gun-maverick/

[Sithara007]

Hah it doesn't hurt trying but I don't think that there will be much interest as rarely anyone outside of Europe cares about it.

You can't expect a lot of global interest in a competition where only European nations are competing. But then the question comes about why do you want global audiences for a regional competition? If the song is really good, then it will get fans from all over the globe. I can give a few examples, such as Satellite from Lena (Germany) in 2010, Euphoria by Loreen (Sweden) in 2012 and Heroes by Mans Zelmerlow (Sweden) in 2015. But if the winners are selected for political considerations within Europe, then you can't expect the song to become viral in regions outside the EU.

[Rikafip]

Create the thread! We can do the research and continue the discussions there. This thread will be locked 1 week after the Oscar awards ceremony and it will be better to have a separate thread for different entertainment betting events hehe.

Since I am not a big fan of Eurovision or betting on it, I think that someone else who od more than involved/interested should open it. I may visit the thread but my betting on it sums up to asking my wife (since she is a fan) which country might win and then putting some money on them.

Also, it appears that there is another storyline being created. This storyline is more right wing that endorses patriotism and encourages the youth to be recruited to the military. How many of Oscar voters are right wing? Hollywood has gone far left and this is making moderate left wingers appear like moderate right wingers hehehehehe.

New Top Gun seems more realistic than that scenario, in which a movie of that type wins a Best Picture Oscar considering how left Hollywood is.

Beside that, I liked new Top Gun a lot (imho it's even better than the first one) and I would like seeing it winning an Oscar or two which I think it deserves. We need more of those old school types or movies that use less cgi and more practical effects.

[bitgolden]

Hah it doesn't hurt trying but I don't think that there will be much interest as rarely anyone outside of Europe cares about it.

You can't expect a lot of global interest in a competition where only European nations are competing. But then the question comes about why do you want global audiences for a regional competition? If the song is really good, then it will get fans from all over the globe. I can give a few examples, such as Satellite from Lena (Germany) in 2010, Euphoria by Loreen (Sweden) in 2012 and Heroes by Mans Zelmerlow (Sweden) in 2015. But if the winners are selected for political considerations within Europe, then you can't expect the song to become viral in regions outside the EU.

For a while now, it has been turning into a progressive heaven for participants. If you are a lady with beard, or a queer or any lgbt+ member then you are going to get a lot more votes than what your song deserves. We do not have the times of "I am in love with a fairytale" period anymore. And this is coming from someone who supports progressive rights, what we think quite normal today was wrong for people in 60's, black/white marriage was a "sin" according to some people 60 years ago, and normal today, so what some say is wrong or sin today will be normal 60 years from now and I support them. BUT nobody should win if the song is not the best one, that should be only reason to win.

[nullama]

~snip~
For a while now, it has been turning into a progressive heaven for participants. If you are a lady with beard, or a queer or any lgbt+ member then you are going to get a lot more votes than what your song deserves. We do not have the times of "I am in love with a fairytale" period anymore. And this is coming from someone who supports progressive rights, what we think quite normal today was wrong for people in 60's, black/white marriage was a "sin" according to some people 60 years ago, and normal today, so what some say is wrong or sin today will be normal 60 years from now and I support them. BUT nobody should win if the song is not the best one, that should be only reason to win.

Eurovision has always been a bit colorful though. If you perform there without anything different you're most likely to be ignored, even if your song is "mainstream good".

But yeah, I agree that the contest is a bit political. But, isn't that the whole point of it?, I think it was created to make all European countries get to know each other a bit more, and get together peacefully. It has always been a geopolitical instrument, since the beginning:

The Eurovision Song Contest (French: Concours Eurovision de la chanson) was first held in 1956, originally conceived through a desire to unite European countries through cross-border television broadcasts following World War II, and in doing so to test the capabilities of international broadcast technology.

[Sithara007]

For a while now, it has been turning into a progressive heaven for participants. If you are a lady with beard, or a queer or any lgbt+ member then you are going to get a lot more votes than what your song deserves. We do not have the times of "I am in love with a fairytale" period anymore. And this is coming from someone who supports progressive rights, what we think quite normal today was wrong for people in 60's, black/white marriage was a "sin" according to some people 60 years ago, and normal today, so what some say is wrong or sin today will be normal 60 years from now and I support them. BUT nobody should win if the song is not the best one, that should be only reason to win.

Previously televoting had an equal weight as the jury vote and then the political considerations of the jury will not have too much impact on the final results. But they changed the format for voting several times in the last 5-6 years, and now the jury vote has a higher weightage. Even the televoting seems to be having a bias. Check the voting numbers below, and you will find that "friendly" countries (for example, Moldova/Romania, Cyprus/Greece, Ukraine/Azerbaijan) get more votes compared to "unfriendly" countries. So not always, the best song gets most points.

[bbc.reporter]

Create the thread! We can do the research and continue the discussions there. This thread will be locked 1 week after the Oscar awards ceremony and it will be better to have a separate thread for different entertainment betting events hehe.

Since I am not a big fan of Eurovision or betting on it, I think that someone else who od more than involved/interested should open it. I may visit the thread but my betting on it sums up to asking my wife (since she is a fan) which country might win and then putting some money on them.

Also, it appears that there is another storyline being created. This storyline is more right wing that endorses patriotism and encourages the youth to be recruited to the military. How many of Oscar voters are right wing? Hollywood has gone far left and this is making moderate left wingers appear like moderate right wingers hehehehehe.

New Top Gun seems more realistic than that scenario, in which a movie of that type wins a Best Picture Oscar considering how left Hollywood is.

Beside that, I liked new Top Gun a lot (imho it's even better than the first one) and I would like seeing it winning an Oscar or two which I think it deserves. We need more of those old school types or movies that use less cgi and more practical effects.

Less cgi and more practical effects might create a good argument on why the voters of the academy awards might choose Top Gun. Avatar is the favorite to win best visual effects, however, with this type of movie for the type of movie goers of the present, cgi is not very amazing anymore. It might also be considered annoying because similar to what you said, we need more movies with practical effects.

In any case, Top Gun is favorite for best sound. I am not quite certain why the Batman is the lowest underdog. The sound effects in the Batman is better than Top Gun, I reckon.

[Rikafip]

Less cgi and more practical effects might create a good argument on why the voters of the academy awards might choose Top Gun. Avatar is the favorite to win best visual effects, however, with this type of movie for the type of movie goers of the present, cgi is not very amazing anymore. It might also be considered annoying because similar to what you said, we need more movies with practical effects.

Avatar should really be nominated in "Best Animated Feature Film" category considering how it looks. There's very little live action going there as almost everything has been animated. Yeah I know that every scene was shot with real camera and then animated, but still... This lack of live action is one of the reasons why I didn't like that movie much.

In any case, Top Gun is favorite for best sound. I am not quite certain why the Batman is the lowest underdog. The sound effects in the Batman is better than Top Gun, I reckon.

Batman was (at least for me) one of the biggest disappointments last year and I honestly didn't notice that sound was so good ( or anything else in that movie). While on the other hand Top Gun is the epitome of a guilty pleasure.

[wiss19]

Goin back on Oscars, did something happened to Fabelmans that they dropped this much in odds? I think that was a good movie and for some reason it is not seen as good. In any case, the best picture hasn't mean anything for a while now, which one would you rather be, the one that got a billion dollars in box office, or the one that won the Oscars?

I know that it matters in a reputation sense, and you will live a good life if you win, but that doesn't mean that you should be making a buck, it could mean that you barely made even, or maybe not even that. This is why if I was a producer then I would rather produce a movie that made a billion dollars, not one that won the Oscars if I have to choose between them.

[bbc.reporter]

In any case, Top Gun is favorite for best sound. I am not quite certain why the Batman is the lowest underdog. The sound effects in the Batman is better than Top Gun, I reckon.

Batman was (at least for me) one of the biggest disappointments last year and I honestly didn't notice that sound was so good ( or anything else in that movie). While on the other hand Top Gun is the epitome of a guilty pleasure.

You should watch it again hehe. I also had the same feeling on the first viewing. The second viewing was much better. I had a similar experience with the movie Tenet, however, what it needed was to have the subtitles on to understand what the actors were saying hehehehe.

On Batman for best sound, it had good sound mixing and editing. It was the mood setter of the movie and relied more on it because the movie was always in a dark setting of the night and the day was usually in a grey setting. The car chase scene was very good.

[Sithara007]

Goin back on Oscars, did something happened to Fabelmans that they dropped this much in odds?
~~~

I am quite surprised with this post. I checked the odds at Stake.com, and I coudn't find any big change. The current odds for best picture are as follows:

Best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.38
The Banshees of Inisherin: 4.00
Top Gun: Maverick: 13.00
The Fabelmans: 14.00
Tár: 36.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 31.00
Women Talking: 81.00
Elvis: 81.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 81.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

For the previous odds, check these:

What happened to The Fabelmans?

It started as the favorite to win Oscar for best picture, but now it is being given odds of 15.00. I posted the odds from stake.com a few days ago. But odds have drastically changed since then. Latest odds are as follows (please compare them with my previous post):

Best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.44
The Banshees of Inisherin: 3.75
Top Gun: Maverick: 13.00
The Fabelmans: 15.00
Tár: 36.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 36.00
Women Talking: 81.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 101.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

The odds for best actor (from Stake.com):

Brendan Fraser: 1.61
Colin Farrell: 3.75
Austin Butler: 4.00
Paul Mescal: 26.00
Bill Nighy: 36.00

Thanks to Rikafip for posting the list of nominations. I was glad to see Avatar: The Way of Water getting nominated for the best picture. With box office collection in billions, it at least deserves a few nominations. In terms of odds, Everything Everywhere All at Once is far ahead of all the other films. I checked Stake.com, and the odds are as follows:

Best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.61
The Banshees of Inisherin: 3.25
Top Gun: Maverick: 11.00
The Fabelmans: 12.00
Tár: 36.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 36.00
Women Talking: 66.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 101.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

The odds for best actor (from Stake.com):

Brendan Fraser: 1.61
Colin Farrell: 3.50
Austin Butler: 4.25
Paul Mescal: 26.00
Bill Nighy: 36.00

[Rikafip]

I am quite surprised with this post. I checked the odds at Stake.com, and I coudn't find any big change. The current odds for best picture are as follows:

Situation didn't change much compared to few weeks ago, but it was when you look at the odds when @bbc.reporter started this topic couple of months ago and that's what he was probably referring to.

Best Picture

The Fabelmans 1.83
Everything Everywhere All At Once 2.5
The Banshees of Inisherin 5.00
Avatar: The Way of Water  8.5
Babylon 10.00

It is a legit question though as I am not really sure  what caused The Fabelmans odds going so much up. I understand those were very early odds (even before nominations went out) but still it is a big change while movie won some important awards & 7 Oscar nominations. An obvious answer would be that odds simply went up because Everything Everywhere All At Once became a big favorite to win (and how that happened is even bigger mystery for me).

[bitgolden]

If we were to talk about "how much right wing votes can top gun get?" then we need to look at how right wing oriented Hollywood is, and we can clearly say that they are not, not even a little bit, they are pretty left wing and will continue to do so. Hell Robert De Niro said fuck trump right on award season when millions were watching and everyone clapped, that's the group we are talking about.

Doesn't matter to me considering I didn't like him neither, but it also means top gun is not going to win something because of any political reasons. It was however a good movie, and they shot so much of the flying for real, Tom Cruise literally flew the planes, that's insane! I think they can win by their own merit if they are lucky.

[nullama]

If we were to talk about "how much right wing votes can top gun get?" then we need to look at how right wing oriented Hollywood is, and we can clearly say that they are not, not even a little bit, they are pretty left wing and will continue to do so. Hell Robert De Niro said fuck trump right on award season when millions were watching and everyone clapped, that's the group we are talking about.

Doesn't matter to me considering I didn't like him neither, but it also means top gun is not going to win something because of any political reasons. It was however a good movie, and they shot so much of the flying for real, Tom Cruise literally flew the planes, that's insane! I think they can win by their own merit if they are lucky.

At the end of the day awards are just what a group of people think about something or someone.

It doesn't really matter in the end, it's all just a show to make money, on top of the money they're making with the movie itself.

It's all just entertainment.

[Betwrong]

What happened to The Fabelmans?

It started as the favorite to win Oscar for best picture, but now it is being given odds of 15.00. I posted the odds from stake.com a few days ago. But odds have drastically changed since then. Latest odds are as follows (please compare them with my previous post):

Best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.44
The Banshees of Inisherin: 3.75
Top Gun: Maverick: 13.00
The Fabelmans: 15.00
Tár: 36.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 36.00
Women Talking: 81.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 101.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

Idk, I never thought The Fabelmans had a chance. When I first saw Everything Everywhere All at Once, I said, "This film will get an Oscar for the Best picture!".  I said "first" because by now I've seen it 3 times. But then I saw Triangle of Sadness, and my heart melted. Saw it 4 times, and going to see more. I think these two movies have an equal chance, but in this situation it is better, of course, to bet on the latter, considering 101.00 odds.

Actually, I saw all the movies nominated for Best picture(except Avatar) and most of the others, so I'll be back to this thread, I love this time of year, when you can bet on Oscars!

[Rikafip]

At the end of the day awards are just what a group of people think about something or someone.

True, but their choices affect movie industry more than you think because other adjust and produce movies based on what's popular or what might win an award. So when producers see that specific type of movies have higher chances of winning a Best Picture Oscar, they will start producing more of those and won't take risks which in the end is bad for us consumers.

I think these two movies have an equal chance, but in this situation it is better, of course, to bet on the latter, considering 101.00 odds.

If what you are saying is true, that means bookies made a huge mistake by giving such a high odds on Triangle of Sadness. To me its one of the better movies of the last year (and I really enjoyed seeing Croatian actor Zlatko Buric aka Dimitry as I haven';t seen him in anything good for many years) but if that one wins, it would be one of the biggest upsets ever and somehow I don't see it happening since there's no buzz around it. The movie I think deserved Best Picture nominations but for some reason didn't end up getting one is Aftersun. 

[savetheFORUM]

If we were to talk about "how much right wing votes can top gun get?" then we need to look at how right wing oriented Hollywood is, and we can clearly say that they are not, not even a little bit, they are pretty left wing and will continue to do so. Hell Robert De Niro said fuck trump right on award season when millions were watching and everyone clapped, that's the group we are talking about.

Doesn't matter to me considering I didn't like him neither, but it also means top gun is not going to win something because of any political reasons. It was however a good movie, and they shot so much of the flying for real, Tom Cruise literally flew the planes, that's insane! I think they can win by their own merit if they are lucky.

Yes, I saw a few clip of the top gun movie on TikTok. It shows that they didn't use a CGI there or green screens but tom did actually hang on a real plane and it was moving upwards though it has a harness (obviously) and maybe a parachute just in case something goes wrong. I haven't seen a clip where it flew/drive a plane but if that was also done for real then that's epic.

However tom already have some experience because he also play the same role in the first top gun movie which was released on 1986, and maybe he also own a plane because he is a rich guy. Even if they don't win, I think they still remain a winner on the hearts of many people.

[Rikafip]

Yes, I saw a few clip of the top gun movie on TikTok. It shows that they didn't use a CGI there or green screens but tom did actually hang on a real plane and it was moving upwards though it has a harness (obviously) and maybe a parachute just in case something goes wrong. I haven't seen a clip where it flew/drive a plane but if that was also done for real then that's epic.

I think you got a little bit confused because what you just described (Tom Cruise hanging off the plane while its taking off) was from Mission Impossible - Rogue Nation, and not the latest Top Gun. That scene is crazy though and just shows how dedicated (and crazy) he is.

However tom already have some experience because he also play the same role in the first top gun movie which was released on 1986, and maybe he also own a plane because he is a rich guy. Even if they don't win, I think they still remain a winner on the hearts of many people.

He does own several planes and while he was not allowed by military to fly F18 in the latest Top Gun, he flew for real his own P-51 Mustang in the movie. As a matter of fact, all main actors were actually in the plane and controlling the cameras doing action scenes and that tells you how much effort has been put into this movie. Just for that I would like it to win a couple of technical Oscars because we really need more of that old school approach and less CGI crap.

[Rikafip]

Winners of BAFTA awards have been announced tonight and it will be interesting to see whether that affects the Oscar odds, especially for "All Quiet On The Western Front" that managed to scoop 7 awards. I'll mention winners of the few most important awards only and you can find the rest in this article.

Best film: "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading actor: Austin Butler for "Elvis"
Leading actress: Cate Blanchett for "Tar"
Director: Edward Berger for "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Original Screenplay: "The Banshees Of Inisherin" by Martin Mcdonagh
Cinematography: "All Quiet On The Western Front"