2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions

[famososMuertos]

And we didn't see him this good in his previous films. It's a really painful performance and for someone watching it is very touching. His daughter adds the emotion when Charlie reconciles.  but I think the factor that made the whale good to watch is that people relate to the movie. You can see a lot of people must have seen themselves struggling with a body like Charlie's.

Brendan may actually win.

That's right, Brendan Fraser leaves us a tremendous performance, he has won everything so far, in fact last night he won the Critics Choice Awards and in fact he is a safe nomination, so those odds of @1.5 that the OP mentions will decrease with the days.

Now, the Oscars are something else and history has shown that winning the award route before the Oscars does not guarantee success, so be careful with the money of bets on trust to win.

...//...,,
Brendan Fraser is the favorite over everyone for best actor? I am shocked hehehe.
...

He's an actor, right? Hollywood has shown great legendary performances and they have never been nominated and even great performances for decades and never even get a nomination.

So that goes to show that you only need to be an actor to have a chance of being nominated for an Oscar.

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[bitgolden]

Personal preferences differ from individual to individual. I made a post about the song, because it is very rare to have a film from India getting shortlisted for any of the global awards. And for the Oscars, there is 0.000% chance that any of the films will even get nominated. That said, if the Oscars claim that they represent the entire globe, then they need to be inclusive. As I mentioned previously, this song has gathered well over 100 million views in YouTube and the movie is one of the highest grossing Indian films ever made. Anyway, let's move on and discuss about the main topic. Afterall, Golden Globe and Oscars are as different as chalk and cheese.

It is always good that anything that is done outside of the USA getting nominated is important. We all remember that time "parasite" won, right? It wasn't an American made movie and it won, which made so much noise. It gives the movie world outside of the Hollywood some credibility and it gives a global attention. Something that is huge in our own nation, becomes huge world wide ands insanely good thing to have.

I am glad every time anything non-USA based nominated and then some of them even wins, that's great. I try to be as respectful as when I say this that it is not even limited to India, it is for ANYTHING that isn't Hollywood, because it is globally deserving credit to those achievements.

[Sandra_hakeem]

Best Actor

When talking about the best actor, I just remembered the best actor in 2022, will smith slapping Chris rock at that event. is he in the nomination? Because when I look at him in the trailer for his new movie, Emancipation he looks good and totally plays peter, a slave who almost died because of being whipped and escaping from his life. From what I know, Will Smith being banned for 10 years, but is there no forgiveness? Maybe better to voter watch his new movie before making a decision. I'm sure they will change it.

Haven't heard anything about smith being banned from the Hollywood movies, talk more of getting 'em for that long... Is it serving as a deterrent for his past overreactions on Chris Rock during a minor stage Play? Or did he get involved in some malicious doings we've known nothing about yet? Cus an indigenous actor like himself shouldn't get such as a penalty for his mistakes.... I still remember the legendary role he played in a popular movie, "men in black". ..as I kept watching over and over again' until I caught the Least glimpse that I'd prolly have lost during an involuntary eyeblink or something.... He should be amongst the nominees ofcourse.

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

[bbc.reporter]

@Rikafip. It appears that our surprise movie for this year's Oscar awards might be All Quite On the Western Front after receiving the highest number of nominations in BAFTA with 14. There are movie experts beginning to speculate that Edward Berger might be an unexpected winner for best director.

I might watch the movie later, it is available in Netflix. I always see it being recommended, however, I always ignore it to watch Spy Family hehehehehe.

[Sithara007]

@Rikafip. It appears that our surprise movie for this year's Oscar awards might be All Quite On the Western Front after receiving the highest number of nominations in BAFTA with 14. There are movie experts beginning to speculate that Edward Berger might be an unexpected winner for best director.

I might watch the movie later, it is available in Netflix. I always see it being recommended, however, I always ignore it to watch Spy Family hehehehehe.

Edward Berger for best director? I checked a few weeks back and he was not even in the top-10 list. And it would be a shock for anyone if Steven Spielberg fails to win this award (with his movie - The Fabelmans). IMO, the next most possible choices are Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Todd Field (Tár) and Daniel Kwan/Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once). If I am given the power, I would rather give this award to James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), but then you need to take in to account the fact that normally the Oscar jury doesn't like this type of movies.

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. It appears that our surprise movie for this year's Oscar awards might be All Quite On the Western Front after receiving the highest number of nominations in BAFTA with 14. There are movie experts beginning to speculate that Edward Berger might be an unexpected winner for best director.

Hm I honestly haven't seen such rumours and I just checked I didn't notice odds changing dramatically in its favor. I initially thought that maybe Academy will want anti-war movie to win best picture award due ongoing war in Ukraine, but bookies think different.

I might watch the movie later, it is available in Netflix. I always see it being recommended, however, I always ignore it to watch Spy Family hehehehehe.

Like you I am also tempted every time I browse Netflix but so far I've been avoiding it mainly because I am a big fan of first version from 1930 and I doubt that it can surpass that one which is for me one of the best antiwar movies ever made, even though its been made more than 90 years ago. I will probably watch it before Oscars as I do plan to bet on that category and I can't do it unless I've seen at least couple of favorites. So far I've only seen Decision to Leave and Argentina, 1985 and I am leaning more towards the latter.

[bitgolden]

I couldn't agree with you more. It's fantastic that works from other countries are being given international acclaim. The cinema business in East Asia, and Korea in particular, is quite well-established and well regarded. The win for Best Picture by "Parasite" was a significant achievement, and it brought the Korean film industry a lot of attention. It's fascinating to see cinematic representations of civilizations, histories, and viewpoints that vary from our own.

It's not just about recognizing non-American works; it's about recognizing the fact that bright and creative individuals live in every corner of the globe. It's not just India or Korea, but any nation with a flourishing film industry. When people from all walks of life are given a platform, it enriches the film industry as a whole.

The film "Parasite" was fantastic in every way: script, direction, and performance. There was just the right amount of tension and laughter in this black comedy/drama. It's good news for movies in general, not just Korea. This film serves as a timely reminder that the magic of cinema lies in the fact that extraordinary narratives may emerge from any source.

This is why I like Cannes a lot more, in the world of Cannes you get to see movies from all around the world, they are not works that are Oscar like, they are just artistic movies that gets very few and limited viewership, they are movies for intellectuals but at the very least they are fair towards the whole world and not just to France where it's held (I think?).

Oscars should be more like that, it's not about the best movie that comes out of Hollywood, but the best movie anywhere in the world, and that would make it harder to watch that much more movies, but it's definitely possible if you look at the most watched movies of at least 20-30 more nations.

[dothebeats]

I couldn't agree with you more. It's fantastic that works from other countries are being given international acclaim. The cinema business in East Asia, and Korea in particular, is quite well-established and well regarded. The win for Best Picture by "Parasite" was a significant achievement, and it brought the Korean film industry a lot of attention. It's fascinating to see cinematic representations of civilizations, histories, and viewpoints that vary from our own.

It's not just about recognizing non-American works; it's about recognizing the fact that bright and creative individuals live in every corner of the globe. It's not just India or Korea, but any nation with a flourishing film industry. When people from all walks of life are given a platform, it enriches the film industry as a whole.

The film "Parasite" was fantastic in every way: script, direction, and performance. There was just the right amount of tension and laughter in this black comedy/drama. It's good news for movies in general, not just Korea. This film serves as a timely reminder that the magic of cinema lies in the fact that extraordinary narratives may emerge from any source.

This is why I like Cannes a lot more, in the world of Cannes you get to see movies from all around the world, they are not works that are Oscar like, they are just artistic movies that gets very few and limited viewership, they are movies for intellectuals but at the very least they are fair towards the whole world and not just to France where it's held (I think?).

Oscars should be more like that, it's not about the best movie that comes out of Hollywood, but the best movie anywhere in the world, and that would make it harder to watch that much more movies, but it's definitely possible if you look at the most watched movies of at least 20-30 more nations.

Well what can you do if the governing body of the said award is mostly from the West? They'd push for more Western representation rather than get nominations from movies and actors/actresses from the other side of the world. I agree that Cannes is one of the most prestigious awards out there for film, and most of the winners they pick really deserve the commendation and the recognition.  I've tried watching some of the movies that were nominated in Cannes a few years ago, and I can definitely say that it's not for everyone, though the art in the films they produce are really something else. Unpredictable story line, raw emotions, beautiful use of scenery.. unlike Hollywood films wherein it's mostly explosive and very predictable storylines with very cliche dialogues.

[Rikafip]

This is why I like Cannes a lot more, in the world of Cannes you get to see movies from all around the world, they are not works that are Oscar like, they are just artistic movies that gets very few and limited viewership, they are movies for intellectuals but at the very least they are fair towards the whole world and not just to France where it's held (I think?).

Oscars should be more like that, it's not about the best movie that comes out of Hollywood, but the best movie anywhere in the world, and that would make it harder to watch that much more movies, but it's definitely possible if you look at the most watched movies of at least 20-30 more nations.

You are mixing two very different things. First and foremost, Cannes is a movie festival (like Sundance, Berlin, Venice, Karlovy Vary etc) whose goal is not to give awards for best movies made in some specific year like Oscar is, or BAFTA, Golden Globes etc. Now that you mentioned France, their sort of equivalent of Oscar is Cesar Award but it only gives awards to French movies (+for best international one) so I think that Academy is doing by including bunch of foreign movies in their award is a good thing. After all, Oscars initially started as an award for American movies only, but later developed into what it is now.

[Theones]

Here in India, everyone is celebrating after a song (Naatu Naatu) from one of the local movies (RRR) won Golden Globe award for the best original song. The composer (Koduri Maragathamani Keeravaani) will be receiving the award and this is the first time that a movie from India has won a Golden Globe award. Naatu Naatu also becomes the first ever Asian song to win Golden Globe. I just hope that the momentum will be carried forward to the Oscars as well. Any award during the Oscars would be an added sweetener.

its been three days I have read the post that RRR song won the Golden globe award - I really doubt the Golden globe jeury 
I still have no shame in admitting that this is the worse movie I have ever watched !! Why then they got golden globe award? even the song is too over exaggerated

this is undoubtedly a case where we all have to ask the following question:

- are the people who vote in good mental health?

after asking this question we have to see the people who voted and know their psychological background something like the choices and reasons that make these people choose a certain choice because in recent years I have seen each thing more ridiculous than the other being voted on and I am wondering who are the people who are voting? because honestly this is a close path, very close, they vote nonsense things, at least for me I don't see anything interesting in this video, of course it may have some cultural aspect of india, but in this video there is nothing interesting

lol - that is the question
This is the worst movie I ever watched in lifetime. The hero jumps from the ground and lands up on a tarace of a palace to save his sister and kills the whole staff of the palace single handedly - such a flop movie and the song won Golden Globe award- I think they just have to make India win something - that is it

[bitgolden]

This is why I like Cannes a lot more, in the world of Cannes you get to see movies from all around the world, they are not works that are Oscar like, they are just artistic movies that gets very few and limited viewership, they are movies for intellectuals but at the very least they are fair towards the whole world and not just to France where it's held (I think?).

Oscars should be more like that, it's not about the best movie that comes out of Hollywood, but the best movie anywhere in the world, and that would make it harder to watch that much more movies, but it's definitely possible if you look at the most watched movies of at least 20-30 more nations.

You are mixing two very different things. First and foremost, Cannes is a movie festival (like Sundance, Berlin, Venice, Karlovy Vary etc) whose goal is not to give awards for best movies made in some specific year like Oscar is, or BAFTA, Golden Globes etc. Now that you mentioned France, their sort of equivalent of Oscar is Cesar Award but it only gives awards to French movies (+for best international one) so I think that Academy is doing by including bunch of foreign movies in their award is a good thing. After all, Oscars initially started as an award for American movies only, but later developed into what it is now.

That's what I am saying, it should be world wide and not just American if they want to improve the movie world. Why? Because if there is a movie that they believe was done better than any other american made movie, and they do not give them the reward just because they are not american, it wouldn't be fair.

I am not saying there are movies better than American ones every year, most of the years I agree that american movies are the best movies of that year, they have the talent, the fame, the experience, the staff and everything else that is the best there, rarely we get to see better movies, but when we do? It shouldn't be ignored and rewarded like the parasite did.

[Rikafip]

That's what I am saying, it should be world wide and not just American if they want to improve the movie world. Why? Because if there is a movie that they believe was done better than any other american made movie, and they do not give them the reward just because they are not american, it wouldn't be fair.

But why would they do that, what would be the benefit for American film industry to "improve the film world"? Oscar is first and foremost American movie award, and one of the purposes is to award and protect American film industry. And later it developed into what we see now, with finally non-American movie winning a Best Picture award.

Don't get me wrong, I would like if foreign movies have the same chance of winning like American ones (good example of that Roma which is a vastly superior to Green Book, but latter won the award nevertheless) but I also understand why they are doing it that way. Less American movies winning award means less money poured into American movie industry equals less money for actors, directors etc and exactly those people vote for the awards (afaik 80% Academy members are Americans).

[FanEagle]

It is so nice to see Brendan Fraser being back to his old happy self again. I mean he was one of the biggest stars coming into 2000's and I mean like he was seriously at the highest level paid type of actor, he was at a level of the biggest names, think of the biggest movie star you could think of, and he was there.

We have seen a 20 year period give or take of him being gone, played in smaller roles of course to keep it going but never in anything big. Finally seeing him in something that got this much attention, and I am sure the roles must be flying to him now. I think it is really great to see him being back as in not just roles but also look at his interviews, dude feels like how he used to be. It's really fun to see. I hope he wins it.

[Rikafip]

Guys and gals, Oscar 2023 nomination list is out and from what I could see, there's no major surprises. Everything Everywhere All at Once is leader with 11 nominations, followed by All Quiet on the Western Front and The Banshees of Inisherin each getting nominated in 11 categories. Here is the full list https://variety.com/2023/film/news/oscar-nominations-2023-list-1235495072/

Actually, if I can call something surprising (at least for me), that's Avatar getting Best Picture nomination. I saw the movie last weekend and it was a big disappointment. Yeah it looks good, but that's all there is to it, nothing else really. But I guess since movie made 2 billion dollars already, it made sense for them to include it.

edit: now I see that odds on Everything Everywhere All at Once went even more down, probably caused by being the leader when it comes to amount of nominations. Despite being favorite, I simply can't bet on a movie that I couldn't even finish so I will probably got for a surprise and Banshees instead.

[Sithara007]

Thanks to Rikafip for posting the list of nominations. I was glad to see Avatar: The Way of Water getting nominated for the best picture. With box office collection in billions, it at least deserves a few nominations. In terms of odds, Everything Everywhere All at Once is far ahead of all the other films. I checked Stake.com, and the odds are as follows:

Best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.61
The Banshees of Inisherin: 3.25
Top Gun: Maverick: 11.00
The Fabelmans: 12.00
Tár: 36.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 36.00
Women Talking: 66.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 101.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

The odds for best actor (from Stake.com):

Brendan Fraser: 1.61
Colin Farrell: 3.50
Austin Butler: 4.25
Paul Mescal: 26.00
Bill Nighy: 36.00

[bitgolden]

Guys and gals, Oscar 2023 nomination list is out and from what I could see, there's no major surprises. Everything Everywhere All at Once is leader with 11 nominations, followed by All Quiet on the Western Front and The Banshees of Inisherin each getting nominated in 11 categories. Here is the full list https://variety.com/2023/film/news/oscar-nominations-2023-list-1235495072/

Actually, if I can call something surprising (at least for me), that's Avatar getting Best Picture nomination. I saw the movie last weekend and it was a big disappointment. Yeah it looks good, but that's all there is to it, nothing else really. But I guess since movie made 2 billion dollars already, it made sense for them to include it.

I agree that Avatar getting that nomination is wild. I think Fabelmans would probably win, and Brendon will probably win as well, those are locked in my mind if you ask me, but maybe I am wrong. The closer we get, the more we are going to end up with getting true results and it will be decided that way, the odds will change a bit the closer we get and the odds for the winner will be decided by that point.

I know that people do not believe this, but the favourites usually win and I think that it will be the same way this year again, we are going to see the favourites win again. You do not have to wager accordingly, you could make some other claims, but it is fine right now the way it is for me.

[famososMuertos]

The betting round is official!

There are many names where to put the money,  actor and actress are the categories where I like to predict and eventually place bets with friends... and then something in the casinos.

Having said that, the insurance is Brendan Fraser, it would be a surprise if he does not win and on the female side it would be a surprise if Ana De Armas wins (?).

[bbc.reporter]

Guys and gals, Oscar 2023 nomination list is out and from what I could see, there's no major surprises. Everything Everywhere All at Once is leader with 11 nominations, followed by All Quiet on the Western Front and The Banshees of Inisherin each getting nominated in 11 categories. Here is the full list https://variety.com/2023/film/news/oscar-nominations-2023-list-1235495072/

Actually, if I can call something surprising (at least for me), that's Avatar getting Best Picture nomination. I saw the movie last weekend and it was a big disappointment. Yeah it looks good, but that's all there is to it, nothing else really. But I guess since movie made 2 billion dollars already, it made sense for them to include it.

edit: now I see that odds on Everything Everywhere All at Once went even more down, probably caused by being the leader when it comes to amount of nominations. Despite being favorite, I simply can't bet on a movie that I couldn't even finish so I will probably got for a surprise and Banshees instead.

All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated in 9 categories. I am shocked because every critic was quiet about this movie until BAFTA nominations were announced. The skeptical me thinks that the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences have an agenda to help stop the war in Ukraine hehe. They will vote for this movie to win as much oscars as possible to bring the winners on the stage to deliver their antiwar speeches hehehe.

The movie is also very much underestimated with odds of 36.00. If this wins best picture in BAFTA on February, expect this to lead everywhere.

[Sithara007]

All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated in 9 categories. I am shocked because every critic was quiet about this movie until BAFTA nominations were announced. The skeptical me thinks that the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences have an agenda to help stop the war in Ukraine hehe. They will vote for this movie to win as much oscars as possible to bring the winners on the stage to deliver their antiwar speeches hehehe.

The movie is also very much underestimated with odds of 36.00. If this wins best picture in BAFTA on February, expect this to lead everywhere.

Well.. I am not sure about this. All Quiet on the Western Front has nothing to do with the ongoing war in Ukraine. It shows the horrors of war and there is no doubt about it, but set in 1918 during the closing stages of World War 1. I don't have a Netflix subscription, so haven't watched this movie yet. Anyway, as of now the chances that this film may win any award is minimal. The odds are as follows (from Stake.com and others):

Best Picture: 36.00
Best Adapted Screenplay: 5.00
Best International Feature Film: 3.20 (first in rankings)
Best Original Score: 30.00
Best Sound: 4.50
Best Production Design: 8.00
Best Cinematography: 5.00 (2nd in rank)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: 6.00
Best Visual Effects: 6.50

[Rikafip]

I think Fabelmans would probably win, and Brendon will probably win as well, those are locked in my mind if you ask me, but maybe I am wrong.

I know that people do not believe this, but the favourites usually win and I think that it will be the same way this year again, we are going to see the favourites win again.

But aren't you contradicting yourself here? First you said that The Fabelmans will probably win, while the actual favorite at the moment is Everything Everywhere All at Once (and you said that favorites usually win). Honestly, despite it being a favorite, I simply don't see them winning Best Picture award. Maybe I am biased because I disliked movie so much that I couldn't even finish it, but I just can't bet on it ot see it winning via preferential vote.

All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated in 9 categories. I am shocked because every critic was quiet about this movie until BAFTA nominations were announced. The skeptical me thinks that the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences have an agenda to help stop the war in Ukraine hehe. They will vote for this movie to win as much oscars as possible to bring the winners on the stage to deliver their antiwar speeches hehehe.

Despite being nominated in many categories, I don't expect this one to actually win many Oscars as there is some tough competition in each one of those. After all, their are the favorites in only the Best International Feature category, and even there they are not the 100% locked.

I plan to watch it this weekend to finally see how good it is compared to that 1930 masterpiece.