2023 Diff thread now opened.

[Cryptoshi413]

So. +5%
looks likely.

Price was
20.7k and is now 23.1k

11.5% price jump and a 5% diff jump


so this will mean 2+2=4 decent weeks for mining.

I wonder what it will be in 2 weeks.

I am looking to get a pair of whatsminers to test the liquid cooler coming.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   774087  (4 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   104.3502%  (1960 / 1878.29 expected, 81.71 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                            
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                            
Next Difficulty:   between 39233501439301 and 39234825703341
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.3709% and +4.3744%
Previous Retarget:   January 15, 2023 at 4:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 2:07 AM  (in 0d 8h 56m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 2:07 AM  (in 0d 8h 57m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 59m 33s and 13d 10h 0m 12s
Copy stats to clipboard

I have the same liquid coolers on the way. Just curious which model whatsminer are you looking to go with? I’ve only owned Bitmain gear, so this will be my first time with both immersion and whatsminer gear.

[1714620279]

1714620279

[philipma1957]

m30s+ or m30s++

If we like this setup. we may try

a second with m50

eventually we could do 10 to 15 of them.

and in the dream stage would be my partner forum member buysolar and I would launch a service for his solar customers

1 cooler 2 whatsminers

run for heat in the winter
run for pool heater in the summer.


I wish I was a lot younger than 66 as I really think the solar combined as a winter home heater and pool heater Would be great.

If I was say 45 and no active diabetes vs 66 with diabetes I could do more work at it.

[mikeywith]

So far, it looks like we may stay close to flat

Latest Block:   774388  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.7241%  (245 / 240.85 expected, 4.15 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Current Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                           
Next Difficulty:   between 39506619869230 and 40042124561577
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3956% and +1.7565%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 8:09 AM  (+4.6833%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 12, 2023 at 2:28 AM  (in 12d 2h 9m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 12, 2023 at 6:51 AM  (in 12d 6h 33m 31s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 18m 19s and 13d 22h 41m 59s

It looks like New York state is kicking miners out, this article says the judge issued a $10,000 daily fine against one of the mining farms, aside from all the media talk, can someone sum up what is going on in NY in regards to mining?

[philipma1957]

So far, it looks like we may stay close to flat

Latest Block:   774388  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.7241%  (245 / 240.85 expected, 4.15 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                            
Current Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                            
Next Difficulty:   between 39506619869230 and 40042124561577
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3956% and +1.7565%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 8:09 AM  (+4.6833%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 12, 2023 at 2:28 AM  (in 12d 2h 9m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 12, 2023 at 6:51 AM  (in 12d 6h 33m 31s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 18m 19s and 13d 22h 41m 59s

It looks like New York state is kicking miners out, this article says the judge issued a $10,000 daily fine against one of the mining farms, aside from all the media talk, can someone sum up what is going on in NY in regards to mining?

As I understood the law no new mines that are not 100% hydro , wind or Solar.

But that old mines can mine on.

Also they are not looking for small miners.

Not sure if the mine facing fines is a new mine.

Here in New Jersey our state still welcomes miners. Also we have a ton of solar online so we would be okay.

That's is why we are getting the whatsminers from you. to put in the liquid cooler.

[kano]

Alas, as usual, it is way too early to even guess what the next diff change will be, so estimates you find online will be rubbish produced by idiots

Currently the value is -3.7% which no doubt it wont be at the end of the 2 weeks.

[DaveF]

It looks like New York state is kicking miners out, this article says the judge issued a $10,000 daily fine against one of the mining farms, aside from all the media talk, can someone sum up what is going on in NY in regards to mining?

If you read the linked article
https://www.lockportjournal.com/news/local_news/judges-finds-bitcoin-facility-in-falls-is-operating-in-violation-of-court-order-sets-fine/article_1170797d-9994-5836-9289-8f3bca1d51a1.html

It's got 0 to do with the NY law itself but local zoning regulations.

Justice Edward Pace said he would impose the fines, dating back to Dec. 9, when Supreme Court Justice Frank Sedita III first issued a temporary restraining order (TRO) that directed U.S. Data Technologies Group Ltd. and U.S. Data Mining Group Inc, doing business as U.S. Bitcoin, to stop operating while lawyers for the Falls sought a preliminary injunction to force their cryptocurrency mining facility on Buffalo Avenue to comply with a new zoning ordinance governing high energy use industries.

Or, to put it bluntly, get your ugly high power usage stuff out of this area we want to build condos and hotels and there is the possibility we might get another casino license up here and that area really needs to be cleaned up. But you can't come out and say that so you just keep annoying them till they leave.

The entire area where it is, really needs to be redeveloped in a major way but there is resistance since what is there is providing SOME jobs and revenue and people don't want to trade it away for something that MAY happen in the future.

Side note about NY: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5437485

-Dave

[stompix]

Or, to put it bluntly, get your ugly high power usage stuff out of this area we want to build condos and hotels and there is the possibility we might get another casino license up here and that area really needs to be cleaned up. But you can't come out and say that so you just keep annoying them till they leave.
The entire area where it is, really needs to be redeveloped in a major way but there is resistance since what is there is providing SOME jobs and revenue and people don't want to trade it away for something that MAY happen in the future.

I think the same, it's about where they set up their business not what they are doing or the legal way, more like how we kicked any kind of husbandry or meat production, slaughterhouse at least 5 km from the city lines a decade ago, everyone had to pack and move beyond the outskirts, which was again funny cause the city has grown around two miles in each direction since the 90s.

But, in this case, probably they are overreacting, depending on where this is situated but Buffalo avenue also means this:
https://goo.gl/maps/oX3o9CwrRzN8ZLMm9
there is also a Chemical something there, but closer to the falls I see a Marriot and a Hilton plus a Casino, so probably in the other direction that's not the place for a mining farm. As for the redevelopment, yeah, It needs to do, I've seen buildings and factories abandoned since the fall of communism that still look better than some there they need to get that done before thinking of possible tourists being annoyed by miner noises.

So 10%, now 4%, still the price keeps up the pace, I see income is still in the 7 cents area, still toying with the calculator to see the entry-level but no way, even with a somewhat cold spell, a minor one of -2C here still mining even for heat doesn't really make sense and just the two of them left are rising the basement to 26C even during the night.

That being said, I'm curious about what others think looking at those prices:

141T 3031.5W 21.5J/T  Price/Unit   $6,486 stock
100T 2950W 29.5J/T Price/Unit   $1,950 stock
191T 5252.5W 27.5J/T  Price/Unit   $3,629 Future order Q3 (it's the hydro)

Does it really make any sense to purchase the S19 141T? The guy that bought from me told me he had just put an order for 10 of those, and I can't really understand why especially since he's buying used ones too! Again, am I missing a really important point? As usual? 

[philipma1957]

Or, to put it bluntly, get your ugly high power usage stuff out of this area we want to build condos and hotels and there is the possibility we might get another casino license up here and that area really needs to be cleaned up. But you can't come out and say that so you just keep annoying them till they leave.
The entire area where it is, really needs to be redeveloped in a major way but there is resistance since what is there is providing SOME jobs and revenue and people don't want to trade it away for something that MAY happen in the future.

I think the same, it's about where they set up their business not what they are doing or the legal way, more like how we kicked any kind of husbandry or meat production, slaughterhouse at least 5 km from the city lines a decade ago, everyone had to pack and move beyond the outskirts, which was again funny cause the city has grown around two miles in each direction since the 90s.

But, in this case, probably they are overreacting, depending on where this is situated but Buffalo avenue also means this:
https://goo.gl/maps/oX3o9CwrRzN8ZLMm9
there is also a Chemical something there, but closer to the falls I see a Marriot and a Hilton plus a Casino, so probably in the other direction that's not the place for a mining farm. As for the redevelopment, yeah, It needs to do, I've seen buildings and factories abandoned since the fall of communism that still look better than some there they need to get that done before thinking of possible tourists being annoyed by miner noises.

So 10%, now 4%, still the price keeps up the pace, I see income is still in the 7 cents area, still toying with the calculator to see the entry-level but no way, even with a somewhat cold spell, a minor one of -2C here still mining even for heat doesn't really make sense and just the two of them left are rising the basement to 26C even during the night.

That being said, I'm curious about what others think looking at those prices:

141T 3031.5W 21.5J/T  Price/Unit   $6,486 stock
100T 2950W 29.5J/T Price/Unit   $1,950 stock
191T 5252.5W 27.5J/T  Price/Unit   $3,629 Future order Q3 (it's the hydro)

Does it really make any sense to purchase the S19 141T? The guy that bought from me told me he had just put an order for 10 of those, and I can't really understand why especially since he's buying used ones too! Again, am I missing a really important point? As usual? 

All USA law below:

Well Once again depending on tax setup etc. It is possible the entire 6486 is a tax write off.

frankly I know the 100t machine  will do 80th at 25 watts low speed bitmain firmware

so 2 cost 3900 will do 160th and burn 4000 watts


vs one costing 6486  doing 141th and burning 3100 watts.

So pretending they never break  how long does it take the xp to make up the 2586 price difference

well with a tax write off 2586 is really about  1680 extra.

now two units on low speed earn 160-141 = 19 x 7.5 cents = $1.42 a day more  while burning .9 x 24 = 22 kwatts more.


so at 7 cent power 7 x 22 = 1.54 in power  thus at 7 cent power the xp gains 12 cents a day so 1680/.12 = 14,000 days  for the xp to tie the 2 100th machines running on low

I could plug numbers in for weeks and not get below 3000 days . So frankly buy the 100th machines.

[mikeywith]

As I understood the law no new mines that are not 100% hydro , wind or Solar.

The mentioned mine uses 90% "clean" energy, so it does not seem to be carbon emission issue, seems like DaveF is correct, they just want to kick these guys away in order to build other things.

That's is why we are getting the whatsminers from you. to put in the liquid cooler.

I hope everything works out great.

@stompix paying nearly 0.3BTC for a single miner is just stupid IMO, not to mention how bad all the numbers are, it's just way too risky to put that much in a single gear.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

It depends. If the miner is part of a registered small business in the USA then equipment costs eg miners, is a tax deduction so in a sense RIO is immediate...
https://www.section179.org/

News Alert: The 2023 Section 179 Deduction Limit for Businesses is $1,160,000
Jan 2, 2023 – The Section 179 deduction for 2023 is $1,160,000 (this is up from $1,080,000 in 2022). This is a full $80,000 increase from last year. This means U.S. companies can deduct the full purchase price of ALL qualified equipment purchases, up to the limit of $1,160,000. In addition, the “total equipment purchase” limit has been raised to $2,890,000 (up from $2.7 million in 2022). The deduction can include both new and used qualified equipment.
In addition, businesses can take advantage of 80% bonus depreciation on both new and used equipment for the entirety of 2023. Remember to keep supply chain issues and delivery times in mind when making your Section 179 purchases for 2023, as equipment must be purchased and put into service by midnight 12/31.

[kano]

Alas, as usual, it is way too early to even guess what the next diff change will be, so estimates you find online will be rubbish produced by idiots

Currently the value is -3.7% which no doubt it wont be at the end of the 2 weeks.

... and now it's -7.6%
Give another week to at least get an idea of where it might go.

[philipma1957]

It depends. If the miner is part of a registered small business in the USA then equipment costs eg miners, is a tax deduction so in a sense RIO is immediate...
https://www.section179.org/

News Alert: The 2023 Section 179 Deduction Limit for Businesses is $1,160,000
Jan 2, 2023 – The Section 179 deduction for 2023 is $1,160,000 (this is up from $1,080,000 in 2022). This is a full $80,000 increase from last year. This means U.S. companies can deduct the full purchase price of ALL qualified equipment purchases, up to the limit of $1,160,000. In addition, the “total equipment purchase” limit has been raised to $2,890,000 (up from $2.7 million in 2022). The deduction can include both new and used qualified equipment.
In addition, businesses can take advantage of 80% bonus depreciation on both new and used equipment for the entirety of 2023. Remember to keep supply chain issues and delivery times in mind when making your Section 179 purchases for 2023, as equipment must be purchased and put into service by midnight 12/31.

The deduction save 33% to 40%  in tax.

So it does help a bit.

Still It is next to impossible for the xp to earn more than the 2 100th on low doing 160th.

If prices go up 🆙 you can change clock on the 2x 100 machines and do 200th.

I guess if you buy and prices drop to 6 cents a th  you earn 96 cents and burn 156 cents .

that means the xp gains 60 cents a day but thats still more than 4000 days

I based at 7 cents. power

higher power cost makes the xp look a bit better. but no one should be buying if they have 10 cent power.

the xp would earn  3.00 a day after power
the 2x would earn 1.90 a day 

Now that is just under 2200 days  but buying and hoping to make profit on 10 cent power is nutty.

[stompix]

Should have mentioned, he is in Spain so I don't know if they have a deduction scheme on pair as in the US or if they have one at all, and second, now that I re-read the discussion, he said he bought, maybe because he bought them prior the prices were better and there was no such discount on the 100T machines? I remember bitmain slashed the prices a few months ago but not that far...

Anyhow, obviously at those prices now it makes no sense, as phil said if you have expensive energy (cough!  ) you simply stop mining, you don't go for gear that earns you pennies.

Current Pace:   92.1744%  (449 / 487.12 expected, 38.12 behind)

Hmm, more than 3 days and the pace is still quite low, this reminds me of the diff adjustment in December, it started just like this and almost all of us said it was an anomaly it will get corrected but it kept going till we had a - 7.32 %. This is how that looked three days into it:

Current Pace:   90.8982%  (483 / 531.36 expected, 48.36 behind)

But right now I see no reason for the scaling down, in November the price was really getting hammered, now optimism is all over the place.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   774593  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.1721%  (450 / 488.22 expected, 38.22 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                            
Current Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                            
Next Difficulty:   between 36276284568222 and 38071185674892
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.8134% and -3.2522%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 1:09 AM  (+4.6833%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 12, 2023 at 12:28 PM  (in 11d 1h 56m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 13, 2023 at 5:42 AM  (in 11d 19h 9m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 19m 2s and 15d 4h 32m 7s
Copy stats to clipboard

Well it can pick right back up again.

lets argue that some gear was shut off for maintenance and it gets powered back with us doing 100% for the next 1666 blocks. we go back up to -1.5% that way.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   774593  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.1721%  (450 / 488.22 expected, 38.22 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                            
Current Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                            
Next Difficulty:   between 36276284568222 and 38071185674892
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.8134% and -3.2522%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 1:09 AM  (+4.6833%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 12, 2023 at 12:28 PM  (in 11d 1h 56m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 13, 2023 at 5:42 AM  (in 11d 19h 9m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 19m 2s and 15d 4h 32m 7s
Copy stats to clipboard

Well it can pick right back up again.

lets argue that some gear was shut off for maintenance and it gets powered back with us doing 100% for the next 1666 blocks. we go back up to -1.5% that way.

quote

Latest Block:   775201  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.2076%  (1058 / 1099.71 expected, 41.71 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Current Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                           
Next Difficulty:   between 37861225511555 and 38187679405479
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.7857% and -2.9561%
Previous Retarget:   January 29, 2023 at 1:09 AM  (+4.6833%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 12, 2023 at 11:25 AM  (in 6d 18h 58m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 12, 2023 at 2:24 PM  (in 6d 21h 57m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 15m 14s and 14d 13h 14m 41s
Copy stats to clipboard

quote


so last 608 blocks made were very close to 0%

we were down 38 blocks and are now down 41

just over the halfway point.

[mikeywith]

About 4 days left for this difficult epoch, currently, the numbers are

Latest Block:   775483  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   96.6029%  (1340 / 1387.12 expected, 47.12 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Current Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                           
Next Difficulty:   between 38016235879910 and 38161772249564

So very likely a drop of about 3%, this will kind of offset the last diff increase of 4.6%, as for the price, it seems to have hit a wall at 24k and we are stuck below that, for those who still want to buy coins or mining gears and have the cash to spend, it would be great to see another drop below 20k, that will make buying mining gears a lot easier.

[philipma1957]

About 4 days left for this difficult epoch, currently, the numbers are

Latest Block:   775483  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   96.6029%  (1340 / 1387.12 expected, 47.12 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Current Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                           
Next Difficulty:   between 38016235879910 and 38161772249564

So very likely a drop of about 3%, this will kind of offset the last diff increase of 4.6%, as for the price, it seems to have hit a wall at 24k and we are stuck below that, for those who still want to buy coins or mining gears and have the cash to spend, it would be great to see another drop below 20k, that will make buying mining gears a lot easier.

yeah the 2 whatsminer 30s+ you helped me get are due Thursday this week. that will be 200 th to add to the 2.3ph I manage.

hoping to get more soon.

[stompix]

Latest Block:   775601  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.7984%  (1458 / 1506.22 expected, 48.22 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.1967% and -2.9590%

Creeping up a bit in pace but still losing for the previous difficulty each day, probably indeed 3% if anything special doesn't happen. I keep checking the revenue per TH but it's still disappointing, I wonder how things would have looked if we didn't have the price jump at all.

For the first time, I (more my parents) actually used the heat from the miners, we got -12C , something that was normal a few years ago but completely weird now, so helping the gas and wood bills a bit on top of those few cents they make, but in two days is back to 10C. That said I doubt anything fantastic would happen because of changes from cold weather to hot weather and the other way around, and things like this will count more:

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/02/07/kazakhstans-president-signs-legislation-to-limit-energy-usage-of-crypto-mining/

The new law allows miners to consume electricity from the national grid only when there is a surplus, effectively capping the industry's energy usage. The surplus will be distributed among licensed operators, who will be able to bid for the power. ~
The government will also be approving a list of mining pools that firms can use, and will oblige miners to sell their mined crypto to crypto exchanges registered with the country's special economic zone, the Astana International Finance Center.

More migration to texas?

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   774593  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.1721%  (450 / 488.22 expected, 38.22 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                            
Current Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                            
Next Difficulty:   between 36276284568222 and 38071185674892
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.8134% and -3.2522%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 1:09 AM  (+4.6833%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 12, 2023 at 12:28 PM  (in 11d 1h 56m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 13, 2023 at 5:42 AM  (in 11d 19h 9m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 19m 2s and 15d 4h 32m 7s
Copy stats to clipboard

Well it can pick right back up again.

lets argue that some gear was shut off for maintenance and it gets powered back with us doing 100% for the next 1666 blocks. we go back up to -1.5% that way.

pretty much flat from block 450 to block 1488


"Latest Block:   775631  (27 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.1863%  (1488 / 1531.08 expected, 43.08 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Current Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                           
Next Difficulty:   between 38245645705795 and 38319475235499
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.8088% and -2.6212%
Previous Retarget:   January 29, 2023 at 1:09 AM  (+4.6833%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 10:13 AM  (in 3d 17h 52m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 10:53 AM  (in 3d 18h 32m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 3m 37s and 14d 9h 43m 39s
Copy stats to clipboard"



1038 blocks made and a drop-off of 4 blocks

4/1038 = -0.38% for this mid stretch

I wonder how much could fire up if we shot to 50k

[NotFuzzyWarm]

I wonder how much could fire up if we shot to 50k

Well, remember that only a few months ago there were 1000's of brand-new, still-in-their box miners sitting in storage because several mega-farms couldn't afford to use them.

Bet they are being installed we type...