2023 Diff thread now opened.

[philipma1957]

well 2 new m30s+ due in about 2 hours time.

brings us from 1.5 to 1.7ph and .8ph = 2.5 ph

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[philipma1957]

well 2 new m30s+ due in about 2 hours time.

brings us from 1.5 to 1.7ph and .8ph = 2.5 ph

and as if on cue the gear comes in and price drops with difficulty getting a bit worse.

we were 41 block down and we are now 30 blocks down

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   775883  (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.2790%  (1740 / 1770.47 expected, 30.47 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                            
Current Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                            
Next Difficulty:   between 38675393079141 and 38687841480298
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.7167% and -1.6851%
Previous Retarget:   January 29, 2023 at 1:09 AM  (+4.6833%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 6:56 AM  (in 1d 22h 41m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 7:02 AM  (in 1d 22h 48m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 46m 24s and 14d 5h 53m 1s
Copy stats to clipboard

we were at block 1488 and now are at block 1740

we were down 40 blocks and are now down 30 blocks

so 1740-1488 = 252 made we gained  10 blocks so

252/242 = 1.0413

a 4.1% gain for about the last 2 days

I often wonder how much is off line that could come back if we jump to 50k.

for instance If it is cold and I fire everything we have I could go from 1.7 ph to 1.9ph

that 200 th is shit gear with bad power stats.  I have been pulling it offline and putting in s19 and m30s+

I have some m10's an Avalon a1047 some s9's.  So I wonder just how many people have older shitty gear on the sidelines along with people have new s19's idle


So diff is - 1.76% and price is 21.7k

We could go to -1% or maybe -3% who knows.

[mikeywith]

Latest Block:   776175  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   87.4175%  (16 / 18.30 expected, 2.3 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                           
Current Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                           
Next Difficulty:   between 34601329644123 and 39075073062164
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.6330% and -0.2077%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 9:50 AM  (-0.4944%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 26, 2023 at 10:36 AM  (in 13d 21h 42m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 28, 2023 at 10:12 AM  (in 15d 21h 18m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 45m 52s and 16d 0h 21m 45s

It was a drop of 0.49%, the hashrate picked up in the last couple of days, the average block time for the last 3 days was 9.2 minutes, it seems like the price increase from 16-18k to 22-24k brought some people back to business.

it's also clear looking at asic prices and watching the resellers' stock, gear prices went up, and demand went pretty high, not sure if it's the 2-4k increase itself or the FOMO, I believe it's the latter, seems like some people are trying to rush before the market hits the sky and BTC goes to the moon, since the price increase, we had one positive adjustment, this one is almost flat, the next will likely be a slight positive if price stays the same.

[kano]

well 2 new m30s+ due in about 2 hours time.

brings us from 1.5 to 1.7ph and .8ph = 2.5 ph

What's your reason for going with the 30s?
The 50s are better J/TH and $/TH and total TH

[philipma1957]

well 2 new m30s+ due in about 2 hours time.

brings us from 1.5 to 1.7ph and .8ph = 2.5 ph

What's your reason for going with the 30s?
The 50s are better J/TH and $/TH and total TH

Well I don't know the quality of the liquid cooler.

2x 30s+  cost me 3200

2x 50 would be 5400


SO if the cooler sucks I save 1800 maybe 2000 buying the 30s+. which is the cooler cost.

If the cooler is good we will likely get 10 more and use m50's in them


If the cooler sucks we will likely go back to s19j pro gear.

m30s+ = Investing 3200 + 2000 = 5200 plus import taxes .

m50 = Investing 5400 + 2000 = 7400 plus import taxes.



going all s19j pro I can pay 1776 for 1 includes all so 4 x 1776 = 7104 for all truly cheaper but my cooling issues won't let me  max with air cooled gear.


we have 1.7+ .8 = 2.5 ph for btc     we have power for 25   3 kwatt units we don't have cooling

Also I know 'buysolar' can use this cooler in his home he has a 115kwatt solar array so this will work in his house if it is not good for the farm.


So bad cooler means s19j air cooled

good cooler means m50's and maybe 6-10 coolers

@ mikeywith yeah there is a bit of gear fomo 100th miners were selling at 15k they are now under 2k A lot of people like me with good cheap power but other issues (cooling) are buying.

[philipma1957]

well 2 new m30s+ due in about 2 hours time.

brings us from 1.5 to 1.7ph and .8ph = 2.5 ph

What's your reason for going with the 30s?
The 50s are better J/TH and $/TH and total TH

Well I don't know the quality of the liquid cooler.

2x 30s+  cost me 3200

2x 50 would be 5400


SO if the cooler sucks I save 1800 maybe 2000 buying the 30s+. which is the cooler cost.

If the cooler is good we will likely get 10 more and use m50's in them


If the cooler sucks we will likely go back to s19j pro gear.

m30s+ = Investing 3200 + 2000 = 5200 plus import taxes .

m50 = Investing 5400 + 2000 = 7400 plus import taxes.



going all s19j pro I can pay 1776 for 1 includes all so 4 x 1776 = 7104 for all truly cheaper but my cooling issues won't let me  max with air cooled gear.


we have 1.7+ .8 = 2.5 ph for btc     we have power for 25   3 kwatt units we don't have cooling

Also I know 'buysolar' can use this cooler in his home he has a 115kwatt solar array so this will work in his house if it is not good for the farm.


So bad cooler means s19j air cooled

good cooler means m50's and maybe 6-10 coolers

@ mikeywith yeah there is a bit of gear fomo 100th miners were selling at 15k they are now under 2k A lot of people like me with good cheap power but other issues (cooling) are buying.

2 days and 6 hours in we are plus 9.1%

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   776511  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   109.1871%  (352 / 322.38 expected, 29.62 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                           
Current Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                           
Next Difficulty:   between 40242775121081 and 42779844812684
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.7745% and +9.2538%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 2:50 AM  (-0.4944%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 24, 2023 at 10:34 PM  (in 10d 13h 59m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 25, 2023 at 5:50 PM  (in 11d 9h 15m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 19h 43m 42s and 13d 14h 59m 21s
Copy stats to clipboard

a 9% jump would suck but maybe it happens. Can't worry for now it is early.

[mikeywith]

What's your reason for going with the 30s?
 $/TH

This is not true, the m50s ranging between 25-26w cost 6-7$ more per terahash compared to the m30s+, the 50 series (without the s) ranging between 27-28w cost 3-4$ more per terahash.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   776671  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   108.4477%  (512 / 472.12 expected, 39.88 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                            
Current Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                            
Next Difficulty:   between 40564499633732 and 42481922122371
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.5961% and +8.4929%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 2:50 AM  (-0.4944%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 25, 2023 at 12:40 AM  (in 9d 15h 8m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 25, 2023 at 3:14 PM  (in 10d 5h 42m 27s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 21h 49m 36s and 13d 12h 23m 37s
Copy stats to clipboard

8.4% = ugg



got a price list for whatsminers
yesterday.

Hello PHILIP

 

LIMINAL Price List 2022-02-14
sales@liminal.im
Bitcoin Miners
Prices include all tariffs and shipping, landed in North America with a minimum order quantity of 25. For other locations or smaller quantities, email your request.

Model.........T......W/T......USD......USD/T   Location
M50   118   29   $2,674.80   $18.89   HK
M30s++   110   31   $2,193.60   $16.62   HK
M30s++   108   31   $2,089.20   $16.12   HK
M30s++   104   31   $1,980.00   $15.87   HK
M30s++   102   31   $1,942.80   $15.87   HK
M30s+   100   34   $1,759.20   $14.66   HK
M30s+   94   34   $1,568.40   $13.90   HK
M30s   86   38   $1,368.00   $13.26   CN
M30s   86   38   $1,368.00   $13.26   HK


so like I said 5348 for 2 m50s vs 3136 m30s+  is a big difference

[kano]

Hmm, well you can get M50s+ 25J/TH 130TH/s for $3250 ...

[philipma1957]

Hmm, well you can get M50s+ 25J/TH 130TH/s for $3250 ...

Well if the cooler is good we will be looking to get the m50 and or the m50s+.

maybe 10-12 of them. still waiting for a delivery time for the cooler.

[mikeywith]

Model.........T......W/T......USD......USD/T   Location
M50   118   29   $2,674.80   $18.89   HK
M30s++   110   31   $2,193.60   $16.62   HK
M30s++   108   31   $2,089.20   $16.12   HK
M30s++   104   31   $1,980.00   $15.87   HK
M30s++   102   31   $1,942.80   $15.87   HK
M30s+   100   34   $1,759.20   $14.66   HK
M30s+   94   34   $1,568.40   $13.90   HK
M30s   86   38   $1,368.00   $13.26   CN
M30s   86   38   $1,368.00   $13.26   HK


so like I said 5348 for 2 m50s vs 3136 m30s+  is a big difference

$5348 is M50 (no S), the S version is more expensive,  $3180 for the 130th delivered, so for your set up it's 6k+ too risky for a test phase of your project, and IMO, it's not worth the price difference, it's just 1-2w/th.

Anyway, the prices they quote you are pretty accurate, for 25 pcs I can do lower than those prices, for MOQ of 2 pcs, I can probably do the same prices above, or slightly lower, the thing is, BTC went up 8% in the last 24 hours, so tomorrow prices are probably going to be higher, it's insane how fast gears react to price increase, but pretty slow to respond to the opposite.


Back to diff.

Latest Block:   776717  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.7686%  (558 / 513.02 expected, 44.98 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                           
Current Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                           
Next Difficulty:   between 40729336884399 and 42606198915527
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.0171% and +8.8103%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 9:50 AM  (-0.4944%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 25, 2023 at 6:45 AM  (in 9d 7h 24m 36s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 25, 2023 at 8:55 PM  (in 9d 21h 34m 40s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 20h 54m 45s and 13d 11h 4m 49s

Too early to judge, but things are looking ugly, seems like the news/rumors that Russia (as a state) is building some large mining farms is real.

[kano]

Hmm, well you can get M50s+ 25J/TH 130TH/s for $3250 ...

Well if the cooler is good we will be looking to get the m50 and or the m50s+.

maybe 10-12 of them. still waiting for a delivery time for the cooler.

Heh - timing - BTC price went up quite a bit today. New highest for over 3 months
So any prices you see anywhere may or may not change in the near future.

So expect more diff rises over the next months (currently at 9.7%)
(unless it crashes again)

[NotFuzzyWarm]

I still say that it is those storage units/warehouses full of unused miners that some of the mega farms were reported to be sitting on a couple months ago are either finally now being installed and brought online or were sold other business entities (other farms) to cover expenses/just move money around and are now coming online...

[philipma1957]

I still say that it is those storage units/warehouses full of unused miners that some of the mega farms were reported to be sitting on a couple months ago are either finally now being installed and brought online or were sold other business entities - farms - (to cover expenses/just move money around) and are now coming online...

a 140 th miner burning 3kwatts does 75 kwatts at 7 cents  5.25 power cost it now earns about 0.0812 cents x 140 = 11.36

that would make me put thousands on line  (if I had 10mw at 7 cents cost)

I could do 3000 miners or 420 ph. that is 34k - 16k = 18k a day pay off the gear in no time.

[kano]

...
I could do 3000 miners or 420 ph. that is 34k - 16k = 18k a day pay off the gear in no time.

Heh
3000 miners are gonna cost more than 9.75mil - so take a while to pay of at 18k a day
(and that 18k a day drops every 2 weeks)
18k x 541 ...

But if BTC keeps going up, well that's a different story ... which I'm betting on with another 4PH

[mikeywith]

3000 miners are gonna cost more than 9.75mil - so take a while to pay of at 18k a day
(and that 18k a day drops every 2 weeks)
18k x 541 ...

Exactly, even at current gear prices ROI is close to 1 year with free power, with 7 cents even with the latest gears, it still is more than 2 years, so it will go beyond the halving and the 2 years could very well be 3 or 4 years, or never.

Still however safer to buy now than when we are in the middle of the bull cycle or closer to the end.

[stompix]

Too early to judge, but things are looking ugly, seems like the news/rumors that Russia (as a state) is building some large mining farms is real.

If you're referring to that $12mil farm it's not just rumors, it's real, the funds have been approved and they are going to mine at some damn cheap electricity rates, but it's still only 30 000 miners that will be deployed..some time from now, so it will be probably just the tip of the iceberg.
Meanwhile, till that is built the pace is going bananas,

Current Pace:   112.4020%  (697 / 620.10 expected, 76.9 ahead)

this is just insane, I understand that the price made it more profitable to mine but we're still looking at just one extra cent per ths/s and 1$ a day per machine, I really can't acknowledge that such hashrate was standing by and just got powered up by this little swing in profitability. If this is true how much more will come online at 10 cents/th?
This is going to be an interesting halving, really interesting! 

[philipma1957]

Too early to judge, but things are looking ugly, seems like the news/rumors that Russia (as a state) is building some large mining farms is real.

If you're referring to that $12mil farm it's not just rumors, it's real, the funds have been approved and they are going to mine at some damn cheap electricity rates, but it's still only 30 000 miners that will be deployed..some time from now, so it will be probably just the tip of the iceberg.
Meanwhile, till that is built the pace is going bananas,

Current Pace:   112.4020%  (697 / 620.10 expected, 76.9 ahead)

this is just insane, I understand that the price made it more profitable to mine but we're still looking at just one extra cent per ths/s and 1$ a day per machine, I really can't acknowledge that such hashrate was standing by and just got powered up by this little swing in profitability. If this is true how much more will come online at 10 cents/th?
This is going to be an interesting halving, really interesting! 

Yeah my interest is if BTC was 20 cents a th could we 2x the hash in a year

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   777347  (24 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   113.4066%  (1188 / 1047.56 expected, 140.44 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   39350942467772.63                            
Current Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                            
Next Difficulty:   between 43430522812715 and 44414265134447
Next Difficulty Change:   between +10.9155% and +13.4279%
Previous Retarget:   February 12, 2023 at 2:50 AM  (-0.4944%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 11:07 AM  (in 5d 1h 41m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 5:49 PM  (in 5d 8h 23m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 8h 16m 44s and 12d 14h 58m 46s
Copy stats to clipboard

13% = holy shit that is a lot of gear.

say 30eh added

or 30,000ph

or  30,000,000 th.

 that is 300,000 s19s!

900,000 kwatts

900 megawatts


When you see this growth and increased power use  what is left in the tank?

[mikeywith]

When you see this growth and increased power use  what is left in the tank?

The joy and fomo over this rally is scary, these gears that are coming online, stocks are getting sucked as they come, many random folks on social media are already picking their "best performing altcoin", all of this is not likely going to end well.

I believe over the course of several months BTC price will likely put a lower low and rekt everyone, I do not see the current hashrate can be sustained for long.