2023 Diff thread now opened.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   779751  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.5311%  (1576 / 1522.25 expected, 53.75 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                           
Current Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                           
Next Difficulty:   between 44516794734490 and 44592582851011
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.3980% and +3.5740%
Previous Retarget:   February 24, 2023 at 8:27 PM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 9:00 AM  (in 2d 22h 49m 55s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 9:33 AM  (in 2d 23h 22m 40s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 32m 24s and 13d 13h 5m 9s
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well right now we are at 6.58 cents a th at viabtc

those are brutal numbers

jump 3.5% in diff

we drop closer to 6 cents a th


USA fed rates will likely jump .25% three times in a row. all downward pressure on crypto
and mt gox is supposedly releasing 132k coins over a six month time period. more downward price pressure


the coins in mt gox are like 300 to 1300 cost basis.

Ie you paid 300 to 1300 each

so selling a 300 dollar coin for 21k sound really fucking good to me.

I have to think this will drop price under 20k

So maybe we see viabtc at under six cents a th.

very soon.  so at 5 cents a th a s19 pro set to 80th on low pulls 2000 watts or 50kwatts  and 5 x 80 = 4 bucks earned

10 cent power costs 5 bucks loss of 1 dollar
 9 cent power cost   4.5       loss of 50 cents
 8 cent power cost.  4.0        break even
 7 cent power cost   3.5         make 50 cents with zero maintain of gear or salary
 6 cent power cost   3           make 1 dollar
 5 cent power cost   2.5         makes 1.5 dollars
 4 cent                     2          makes 2 dollars  you may be able to make more set to high power 100 x 5 = 5 bucks 75 x 4 = 3 bucks 2 dollar profit


we are not far from the above happening.

It would dictate diff dropping 20% since s19s would be set to low  unless power was at under 4 cents.

[mikeywith]

nobody really cares about a few bitcoin mining companies going broke, it's just a few tens million

I think it's more like hundreds if not thousands of millions at stake already, but you are right, in the grand scheme of things, the whole mining business is just a drop in the ocean.

And Bitmain is selling gear that will ROI in 1100 days at 5 cents, and in 5 years at 7/kwh 

ROI is more like never, at least as far as BTC roi is concerned, I can tell you that this miner will never make 0.3BTC during its lifetime, it's more likely to get hit by a lightning strike than make 0.3BTC.

[philipma1957]

nobody really cares about a few bitcoin mining companies going broke, it's just a few tens million

I think it's more like hundreds if not thousands of millions at stake already, but you are right, in the grand scheme of things, the whole mining business is just a drop in the ocean.

And Bitmain is selling gear that will ROI in 1100 days at 5 cents, and in 5 years at 7/kwh  

ROI is more like never, at least as far as BTC roi is concerned, I can tell you that this miner will never make 0.3BTC during its lifetime, it's more likely to get hit by a lightning strike than make 0.3BTC.

lets see 6400 usd plus 33% tax = 9600 or more like 0.4 btc 0.00000287 x 141 = 0.00040467 btc a day. lets argue that diff goes 2x over 1000 days. so 0.00020233 by day 1000

average may be 0.0003 btc a day so .4/0.0003 = 1333 days or more  with free power.

pretty amazing.

[mikeywith]

lets see 6400 usd plus 33% tax = 9600 or more like 0.4 btc 0.00000287 x 141 = 0.00040467 btc a day. lets argue that diff goes 2x over 1000 days. so 0.00020233 by day 1000

average may be 0.0003 btc a day so .4/0.0003 = 1333 days or more  with free power.

pretty amazing.

I think you forgot to add the halving to the equation, just so we don't re-do the math, let's take the last part, 1333 days - 400 (till halving for simple math) so 933 days will be post-halving, I would say 2000 days or anywhere between 5 to 6 years assuming it doesn't die or lose any hashboard in the process, to me, that's more like 'never'.

You can buy other gears that are less efficient, and still hit ROI faster despite the power rate, I am sure many folks don't run the math and they will be more than happy to pay 0.4BTC for this miner.

[philipma1957]

lets see 6400 usd plus 33% tax = 9600 or more like 0.4 btc 0.00000287 x 141 = 0.00040467 btc a day. lets argue that diff goes 2x over 1000 days. so 0.00020233 by day 1000

average may be 0.0003 btc a day so .4/0.0003 = 1333 days or more  with free power.

pretty amazing.

I think you forgot to add the halving to the equation, just so we don't re-do the math, let's take the last part, 1333 days - 400 (till halving for simple math) so 933 days will be post-halving, I would say 2000 days or anywhere between 5 to 6 years assuming it doesn't die or lose any hashboard in the process, to me, that's more like 'never'.

You can buy other gears that are less efficient, and still hit ROI faster despite the power rate, I am sure many folks don't run the math and they will be more than happy to pay 0.4BTC for this miner.

yeah forgot it.  the ½ ing is in 400 days so it will be longer. Than 1333 days

[stompix]

ROI is more like never, at least as far as BTC roi is concerned, I can tell you that this miner will never make 0.3BTC during its lifetime, it's more likely to get hit by a lightning strike than make 0.3BTC.

Hmm, and a lot of free power from that lighting strike also, might try my luck!

Silvergate threw in the towel so no wonder the price is down, diff estimate is still up by 2.7%, mempool if clogged but fees are stil low so no offset here, so it's all set for a dive under 6 cents per th/s, really brutal times as Phil said. I just checked the prices per MW over EPEX next day and even at those rates, not a reseller and not VAT-added rates I would be at around 4 and a half dollars per day loss per miner, damn!!!

And speaking of dying hashboards, have you guys seen this?
https://education.compassmining.io/education/bitmain-changed-its-asic-design-miners-need-to-be-ready/
Another s17 episode?

[NotFuzzyWarm]

^^ Ja saw it here first in Hardware and replied there...

[philipma1957]

^^ Ja saw it here first in Hardware and replied there...

yeah I got a bargain 90th s19 and 1 board be dead in under 2 weeks.

[mikeywith]

The price of bitcoin dropped 16% over the past 14 days, a pretty huge drop as far as miners are concerned, add to that the 9.95% increase we had in the previous epoch.

So we went from 24k and 39.16 T difficulty to 20k and 43.05 T, that's 0.075$/th down to 0.057$/th, that is a massive 24% decrease in profitability in just 2 weeks.

As of now anything of  9-10 cents/Kwh and above is mining at a loss except for Antminer S19 XP which is making a shy 1.2-1.5$ a day
at 8 cents only XP or S19 J pro, the 19 pro hardly makes 40 cents a day.
at 7 cents you need S19 and above, and that's making only 0.25$  a day, 0.30$ a day for M30s++
at 6 cents, anything of 40w/th and better makes some profit, the XP makes 4$ a day, XP sells for 6.5k that's 1,621.5 ROI without taking the halving into account, add the U.S tax, and that gets you to 2,400 days at 6 cents, a very solid deal.


Diff is still at a positive pace

Latest Block:   780096  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.7286%  (1921 / 1888.36 expected, 32.64 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                           
Current Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                           
Next Difficulty:   between 43810965584755 and 43812680272390
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7585% and +1.7625%
Previous Retarget:   February 25, 2023 at 3:27 AM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 9:45 PM  (in 0d 15h 33m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 9:46 PM  (in 0d 15h 34m 37s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 17m 26s and 13d 18h 18m 12s

nearly 15 hours to go for another positive 1.3 - 1.9% which will make the above numbers look even worse, my guess, the next epoch will be a negative adjustment if the price doesn't rally back.

[stompix]

Yeah, what a beautiful weekend this is going to be..
Not even counting the other stuff happening, the price is under 20k, profit is down the drain, and talks about taxing miners more in the US. Although this might be a good thing for others, wait till all the countries get this idea.

My simplified and no so accurate math for the best gear on the market is :
140Th at 3000W is ~70kwh a day, so you got double the numbers, if the revenue for a th/s is 5.75, everything over $0.115  is losing money!
As for the previous era gear, the s17+ is 1:1 so at over 5.75 per kWh you're losing money.

Or, the not so funny one, an S19 is making you 8$ a day, as in 30 minutes of flipping hamburgers on minimum wage at McD.

nearly 15 hours to go for another positive 1.3 - 1.9% which will make the above numbers look even worse, my guess, the next epoch will be a negative adjustment if the price doesn't rally back.

Probably, it seems like it's slightly deflating even now, but still, a lot of mining companies are going to have some long meetings full of silence today!

[philipma1957]

yeah viabtc is at 5.96 cents a th

a s19j pro  earns 5.96

burns 75 kwatts

10 cents = $7.50 loser
09 cents = $6.75 loser
08 cents = $6.00 loser
07 cents = $5.25 $0.71 profit
06 cents = $4.50 $1.46 profit         this is the key we almost never get to zero profit at this number
05 cents = $3.75 $2.21 profit

What really interests me is LTC+DOGE L7 miner has been a godlike earner for 2+ years it is tanking bigly for daily profit

If you had 10 L7 miners purchased Jan 2021 they carried you for 2 years



So a guy with 10 L7 miners and 50 s17's  is now in trouble.

and

 2023 FOMC Meetings
March. 21-22*        >>>>>>>> maybe we go up  0.50 to 5.07%
May. 2-3.
June. 13-14*
July. 25-26.
September. 19-20*
Oct/Nov. 31-1.
December. 12-13*

Some say we hit 6% before we see cuts

[BitcoinSoloMiner]

In 1000 days the price of bitcoin will be over 100K! Keep on mining!

[mikeywith]

Or, the not so funny one, an S19 is making you 8$ a day, as in 30 minutes of flipping hamburgers on minimum wage at McD.

An S19 makes you 1$ at 6 cents/Kwh, remember when it first hit the market and people were buying it for half a bitcoin?

Probably, it seems like it's slightly deflating even now, but still, a lot of mining companies are going to have some long meetings full of silence today!

Well profit is down 24% it makes perfect sense for diff to start slowing down at least, current numbers are

Latest Block:   780164  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.2055%  (1989 / 1965.31 expected, 23.69 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                           
Current Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                           
Next Difficulty:   between 43586727751245 and 43586824534449
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2377% and +1.2379%
Previous Retarget:   February 25, 2023 at 3:27 AM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:27 PM  (in 0d 4h 26m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:27 PM  (in 0d 4h 26m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 59m 52s and 13d 19h 59m 54s

Not much time left to make any considerable changes in the retarget, so 1.15% or anything pretty close to that.

[philipma1957]

Or, the not so funny one, an S19 is making you 8$ a day, as in 30 minutes of flipping hamburgers on minimum wage at McD.

An S19 makes you 1$ at 6 cents/Kwh, remember when it first hit the market and people were buying it for half a bitcoin?

Probably, it seems like it's slightly deflating even now, but still, a lot of mining companies are going to have some long meetings full of silence today!

Well profit is down 24% it makes perfect sense for diff to start slowing down at least, current numbers are

Latest Block:   780164  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.2055%  (1989 / 1965.31 expected, 23.69 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                           
Current Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                           
Next Difficulty:   between 43586727751245 and 43586824534449
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2377% and +1.2379%
Previous Retarget:   February 25, 2023 at 3:27 AM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:27 PM  (in 0d 4h 26m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:27 PM  (in 0d 4h 26m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 59m 52s and 13d 19h 59m 54s

Not much time left to make any considerable changes in the retarget, so 1.15% or anything pretty close to that.

+1% is a meh.  -20% in price is an ugh.

Next jump will be of interest.

I wonder if we full on drop.

I think not much unless we get a full two weeks at 15-17k levels.

if a 30 watt s19 j pro makes $1.50 at six cent power it has not quite bottomed out on the mining end.

[mikeywith]

if a 30 watt s19 j pro makes $1.50 at six cent power it has not quite bottomed out on the mining end.

Yes the top tier gears are still in the positive zone for those with 6 cents power rate and below, we also know that some of those large farms are still deploying, what is going to happen now is that many S17s, M20s are going to have to shut down, and a dozen of the overclocked gears will need to adjust, so there is without a doubt some sort of capitulation after a massive 24% in profit.

So now it's a matter of how fast are the large players stacking gears, can they bring online enough gears to offset every miner that isn't profile after a 24% drop, my guess, is that they will not be able to and we would see a drop in difficulty.

So the adjustment was +1.15%, so far the pace is 146% lol, just imagine for one second that we could get such a spike at the current hashrate I wonder if that's even physically possible for this to happen in a few weeks periods, you are going to need an unlimited supply of money and a ton of luck to bring online 150E worth of hashrate.

Latest Block:   780212  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   146.6769%  (21 / 14.32 expected, 6.68 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                             
Current Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                           
Next Difficulty:   between 43860108450321 and 65913689416046
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.7081% and +51.3458%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 11:43 PM  (+1.1564%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 20, 2023 at 12:48 PM  (in 9d 10h 41m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 24, 2023 at 9:30 PM  (in 13d 19h 23m 52s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 9d 13h 4m 29s and 13d 21h 47m 2s

[philipma1957]

 over all the years I mined top end gear at six cents has been the bottom out number.

So we are not there yet.

4.9 cents a th does the trick.

It makes s17pro and m20s losers

or all s17 pro must clock to 40th

[stompix]

Yes, I know, it's been only 2 days, it varies, it's luck...but common, nobody would have anticipated this:

Latest Block:   780542  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   115.1912%  (351 / 304.71 expected, 46.29 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.4195% and +15.3584%

It's not going to be 15%, and that's not going to happen, no matter how bad I'm at this kind of stuff 15% is a no! We did have a price spike back to $22k levels but this was in the last 4 hours, it's obvious the gear that has triggered this (if it's not luck) was set to go online weeks before.
So, 10% price increase, 10% diff? A scenario that looked close to impossible at the end of last week, at least for me.

[kano]

Well it's below 14% now, but as usual, taking any notice of it early on is as pointless as trusting what that site says
... and of course all that doom and gloom about the price just evaporated as usual ...

[stompix]

Well it's below 14% now, but as usual, taking any notice of it early on is as pointless as trusting what that site says

And it's back over! 46 blocks ahead last night 58 now.
As I said many times before I don't care that much about their prediction at the end of the period, I'm watching the blocks getting mined and when you constantly have an increase in those although it doesn't mean for sure the period will end like this, every single day makes the opposite less and less likely.

But just as mikey said I wonder if it's even physically possible anymore to have the same pattern as in one of the previous adjustments when again it started with the same almost unbelievable 10% and kept it going till the end. The whole thing is getting ridiculous, 300k miners, one GW in one go just like that?

Anyhow, let's look at the bright side, 58 vMB of extra sanctions getting confirmed, it did help the mempool a lot.

[philipma1957]

Well it's below 14% now, but as usual, taking any notice of it early on is as pointless as trusting what that site says

And it's back over! 46 blocks ahead last night 58 now.
As I said many times before I don't care that much about their prediction at the end of the period, I'm watching the blocks getting mined and when you constantly have an increase in those although it doesn't mean for sure the period will end like this, every single day makes the opposite less and less likely.

But just as mikey said I wonder if it's even physically possible anymore to have the same pattern as in one of the previous adjustments when again it started with the same almost unbelievable 10% and kept it going till the end. The whole thing is getting ridiculous, 300k miners, one GW in one go just like that?

Anyhow, let's look at the bright side, 58 vMB of extra sanctions getting confirmed, it did help the mempool a lot.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   780648  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   114.6392%  (457 / 398.64 expected, 58.36 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                           
Current Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                           
Next Difficulty:   between 45927129368023 and 49982704612275
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.4542% and +14.7663%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 4:43 PM  (+1.1564%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 22, 2023 at 10:49 PM  (in 9d 10h 39m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 24, 2023 at 12:28 AM  (in 10d 12h 18m 42s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 5h 5m 36s and 13d 6h 45m 7s
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14.6%