2023 Diff thread now opened.

[kano]

It certainly isn't sha256d moving to another coin, since it only takes 1% of btc to beat the other coins total hash rate.

Good point. That amount of hash pounding them would make for one helluva spike but - as long as it does not last too long to avoid sending their diff skyrocketing a farm could 'corner the market' so to speak on mining rewards from said coins for a week or so no?

Well checking the recent 6 month history of BitCH, it shows around 1.2EH to 2.4EH daily
So firstly, yep no sign of even 1% of BTC going there, but also they're daily hash rates which are of course full of random variance,
so anyone would have a difficult time suggesting more than a 0.1% of BTC <-> BitCH swap happening on occasion.

[1714297636]

1714297636

[1714297636]

1714297636

[stompix]

So if it makes 100$ in 3 epochs with scenario one, it nets only 50$ in profit
in Scenario 2, technically, it makes only 95$ but pays 12.5% less power so only 43.75 for the power which is 51.25$ net profit
50$ vs 51.25$ is  2.43% more profit by playing the diff game.

But, this also must include the fact that available gear stays idle or you bust continuously the power of your farm. Of course, yours it's just an example and it doesn't mean they are doing the same numbers but
- in scenario A you have  10,20,20, so you must raise double the hash power every 1 and a half months to keep the game going
- in scenario B you have  10,(10-20), and (20-5), so you both raise the hash power and also idle 18% of it for the other month.

Of course, if you have a ton of unsold gear just waiting in the warehouse and which you could sell as new for just 10% discount after you trash it for a few months it's not a problem, but what if you don't and you have way cheaper power that was already paid in? I find the scenario a bit unbelievable, even though one might see a really fishy pattern in the block time in the first days of the adjustment.

Meanwhile

Latest Block:   781784  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.9230%  (1593 / 1503.92 expected, 89.08 ahead)

Still more hashrate added than Riot has in total or what Mara is planning to deploy till the end of Q1, and that in just two weeks.
Weird that I don't see Bitmain asking already $10k for their XP, still on sale for $5k.

[philipma1957]

So if it makes 100$ in 3 epochs with scenario one, it nets only 50$ in profit
in Scenario 2, technically, it makes only 95$ but pays 12.5% less power so only 43.75 for the power which is 51.25$ net profit
50$ vs 51.25$ is  2.43% more profit by playing the diff game.

But, this also must include the fact that available gear stays idle or you bust continuously the power of your farm. Of course, yours it's just an example and it doesn't mean they are doing the same numbers but
- in scenario A you have  10,20,20, so you must raise double the hash power every 1 and a half months to keep the game going
- in scenario B you have  10,(10-20), and (20-5), so you both raise the hash power and also idle 18% of it for the other month.

Of course, if you have a ton of unsold gear just waiting in the warehouse and which you could sell as new for just 10% discount after you trash it for a few months it's not a problem, but what if you don't and you have way cheaper power that was already paid in? I find the scenario a bit unbelievable, even though one might see a really fishy pattern in the block time in the first days of the adjustment.

Meanwhile

Latest Block:   781784  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.9230%  (1593 / 1503.92 expected, 89.08 ahead)

Still more hashrate added than Riot has in total or what Mara is planning to deploy till the end of Q1, and that in just two weeks.
Weird that I don't see Bitmain asking already $10k for their XP, still on sale for $5k.

The first 75-150 block pattern is nuts.

We have had -20% to  +20% and while I am a believer in variance when the network has 330eh or 3.3 million s19's running  the variance swings just seem too big for the first 75-150 blocks.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   781828  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   105.3064%  (1637 / 1554.51 expected, 82.49 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                            
Current Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                            
Next Difficulty:   between 45789422052947 and 45875780372920
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.1380% and +5.3363%
Previous Retarget:   March 10, 2023 at 4:43 PM  (+1.1564%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 12:47 AM  (in 2d 11h 59m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 1:23 AM  (in 2d 12h 34m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 7h 4m 8s and 13d 7h 40m 2s
Copy stats to clipboard

about 3 days to go  maybe 2 days and 20 hours

Maybe we drop to +4 or go up to +6

time will tell.

I added 2 s19's on thurs and may get 2 m50s from mikeywith.

we will be just under 3ph in 10 days or so.


Oh we are at 8.49 cents a th


so a 3kwatt 100 th machine earns $8.49 burns

10 cent $7.50                  99 cent profit    daily
  9 cent $6.75                 $1.74 profit daily
  8 cent $6.00                 $2.49 profit daily
  7 cent $5.25                 $3.24 profit daily
  6 cent $4.50                 $3.99 profit daily
  5 cent $3.75                 $4.74 profit daily
  4 cent $3.00.                $5.49 profit daily
  3 cent $2.25                 $6.24 profit daily



So 6 cent power looks pretty good at the moment

[mikeywith]

But, this also must include the fact that available gear stays idle or you bust continuously the power of your farm. Of course, yours it's just an example and it doesn't mean they are doing the same numbers but
- in scenario A you have  10,20,20, so you must raise double the hash power every 1 and a half months to keep the game going
- in scenario B you have  10,(10-20), and (20-5), so you both raise the hash power and also idle 18% of it for the other month.

Of course, if you have a ton of unsold gear just waiting in the warehouse and which you could sell as new for just 10% discount after you trash it for a few months it's not a problem, but what if you don't and you have way cheaper power that was already paid in? I find the scenario a bit unbelievable, even though one might see a really fishy pattern in the block time in the first days of the adjustment.

I will by no means try to convince you or anyone else that a similar game is actually being played, not that I don't have the time for that, it's simply because I agree with you lol, I also find it hard to believe, it really makes little to no sense, the example I explained above was just to make understanding the theory that many people believe is true simpler. (by the way, took some time to through in all those numbers).

The main reason why I became interested in this theory is the repeating hashrate patterns, the second reason is that I believe if you disagree with something, it's always best to dig deep into it rather than to completely deny it, even if you think it's complete B.S, the end result of that digging is always going to do you good, you either find out that you were wrong about it all along, or you find more reasons as to why you were right about it from the get-go.

So, here we are digging a deep hole with a plastic spoon.

Weird that I don't see Bitmain asking already $10k for their XP, still on sale for $5k.

the word "sale" tho  . ROI is still a dozen months.

But you are correct, Whatsminer is doing the same, even worse, some gears are cheaper now than when BTC was at 20-24k, which is ironic, I paid 14.2$/th on M30s++ 2 weeks ago or so, I saw BTC go up, thought I was smart to have bought the dip, the next quote I got was cheaper, I don't have the slightest clue on why is that the case, but seems like the HYPE is slowing down, the first 17-18k to 24k wave got so many people excited, they rushed into buying gears, now they are not as excited, that is one theory I can think of.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   782141  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.7408%  (1950 / 1826.86 expected, 123.14 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                            
Current Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                            
Next Difficulty:   between 46495318094193 and 46498690082858
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.7589% and +6.7666%
Previous Retarget:   March 10, 2023 at 4:43 PM  (+1.1564%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 8:30 PM  (in 0d 10h 18m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 8:31 PM  (in 0d 10h 19m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 2h 46m 52s and 13d 2h 48m 14s
Copy stats to clipboard

about 10-11 hours away and 6 to 7 % looks to be what will happen.

I ordered 2 whats miner m50 units from mikeywith


this will bring us to 2.0ph and 750th or 2.75ph total

[mikeywith]

about 10-11 hours away and 6 to 7 % looks to be what will happen.

Not bad given that price kept its pace regardless of the interest rate hike.

Let's watch the first 500-1000 blocks of the coming epoch to see if the pattern we have been discussing repeats.

I ordered 2 whats miner m50 units from mikeywith

Hopefully you will receive them early next week.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   782215  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   90.1045%  (8 / 8.88 expected, 0.88 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                            
Current Difficulty:   46843400286276.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 44815954514033 and 46826620890452
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.3281% and -0.0358%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 6:11 PM  (+7.5581%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 6, 2023 at 6:29 PM  (in 13d 22h 48m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 8, 2023 at 7:05 AM  (in 15d 11h 25m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 17m 32s and 15d 12h 54m 1s
Copy stats to clipboard

early numbers no meaning


but the finishing 66 blocks were done really fast.

they should have been done  at 8:30 and were done at 6:11


about 8 hours time not 10 hours and 20 minutes

so a very high finishing speed for 66 blocks  7.27 minutes a block


followed by a slow beginning. (too short to tell how much)


"Latest Block:   782232  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   109.1161%  (25 / 22.91 expected, 2.09 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                            
Current Difficulty:   46843400286276.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 46964031586446 and 52292934104161
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2575% and +11.6335%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 6:11 PM  (+7.5581%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 5, 2023 at 2:07 PM  (in 12d 16h 6m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 6, 2023 at 5:30 PM  (in 13d 19h 29m 22s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 19h 55m 43s and 13d 23h 18m 29s
Copy stats to clipboard"


and still far too short (25 blocks) but +9%%

and last 66 blocks on the  jump were  made   +27%


So those 91 blocks show strong  numbers

Yeah variance but same style  a big uptick right before and then after the jump.


"Latest Block:   782325  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   112.7815%  (118 / 104.63 expected, 13.37 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                           
Current Difficulty:   46843400286276.55                           
Next Difficulty:   between 47478477218312 and 53092883345648
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.3557% and +13.3412%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 6:11 PM  (+7.5581%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 5, 2023 at 4:06 AM  (in 11d 16h 28m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 6, 2023 at 1:51 PM  (in 13d 2h 14m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 9h 55m 16s and 13d 19h 40m 22s
Copy stats to clipboard"


Still strong uptick. +12.7%

[mikeywith]

112% pace is right around where we spent nearly half of the previous epoch before starting to slow down to 5-7%, if we were to do the same thing again, then around the middle if the epoch we would start falling and thus again creating the same pattern that does not seem to make sense.

[philipma1957]

112% pace is right around where we spent nearly half of the previous epoch before starting to slow down to 5-7%, if we were to do the same thing again, then around the middle if the epoch we would start falling and thus again creating the same pattern that does not seem to make sense.

well it is now +14% so if it does that for 200 more then drops down to 5-7% it is unlikely that its same variance over and over.


and it drops down to 5% on cue 


Latest Block:   782464  (38 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   105.1427%  (257 / 244.43 expected, 12.57 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                           
Current Difficulty:   46843400286276.55                           
Next Difficulty:   between 47419809089512 and 49356722032117
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2305% and +5.3654%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 6:11 PM  (+7.5581%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 6, 2023 at 1:45 AM  (in 11d 14h 49m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 6, 2023 at 2:16 PM  (in 12d 3h 20m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 7h 33m 57s and 13d 20h 4m 37s
Copy stats to clipboard



So I am thinking this is done on purpose

but what do I know.

[kano]

Variance is highest when sample size is smallest
As the sample size grows, the affects of long and short blocks is reduced.

[philipma1957]

Variance is highest when sample size is smallest
As the sample size grows, the affects of long and short blocks is reduced.

yes but 65 blocks before the jump and 200 blocks after the jump add up to 265 blocks which is a fair amount of blocks

And the variance occurs at the same times. late end early beginning.

we were +27% for last 65 blocks and +14 % for first 200 blocks.

now we are down to +8%.  Just saying it looks less random if it occurs constantly in the same block ranges.

I do agree it means tons of gear.

To go +27% from 1950 to 2016 means the 66 blocks should be 50. It is not that big a deal. To continue at +14% for 200 blocks after.

seems like gear was fired up for a stretch of 266 blocks then backed off. But who is to say

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   782610  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.2424%  (403 / 386.60 expected, 16.4 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                            
Current Difficulty:   46843400286276.55                            
Next Difficulty:   between 47561863313584 and 48896018121339
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5338% and +4.3819%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 6:11 PM  (+7.5581%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 6, 2023 at 4:31 AM  (in 10d 17h 53m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 6, 2023 at 1:16 PM  (in 11d 2h 38m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 10h 19m 32s and 13d 19h 4m 45s
Copy stats to clipboard




edit added this:

and down to 4.47%

[kano]

Well if it did happen, it would certainly have to be people turning off BTC miners.

Without the slightest doubt, they are not being redirected to some other sha256d coin.

However, it makes no straight math sense at all to reduce your mining return by mining a short amount on both sides of a rising diff change.
This does guarantee a lower return across a diff rise, than just mining a longer period before.

[philipma1957]

Well if it did happen, it would certainly have to be people turning off BTC miners.

Without the slightest doubt, they are not being redirected to some other sha256d coin.

However, it makes no straight math sense at all to reduce your mining return by mining a short amount on both sides of a rising diff change.
This does guarantee a lower return across a diff rise, than just mining a longer period before.

Could be they have a glut of gear and switch off the sha to mine gpus or scrypt.

When eth was at its peak it did use a ton of power almost 75-80% of sha 256 .

So maybe a big farm of gpus grabbed a lot of btc gear and mine it most of the time.

And mine gpu a little as they slowly try to dump the excess gpus.

Last Sept 2022 sha 256 btc used more power then any mining
gpu eth used second amount
scrypt was third.

when I look at scrypt and etc now they should show upticks the last two days.

Ltc shows a strong hashrate uptick the last two days.

125 th

that would be 110 x 125 = 13000 l7 units

or 125000 L3 + units if it is L3+ units that is 800  x 125000= 100,000,000 watts

or 100,000 kwatts which is 33,333 S19s

which is 3,333,300th. thats 3,333ph or 3.3333 eh

which does not mean enough to drop rates the drop we just had.

So while it is really weird repeating pattern its not switching to mine scrypt or doge or etc.

[stompix]

So maybe a big farm of gpus grabbed a lot of btc gear and mine it most of the time.
And mine gpu a little as they slowly try to dump the excess gpus.

If a farm has that cheap electricity to mine and be profitable for GPU then it would be nuts for them to not mine BTC at those rates.
Also if a large GPU farm still has gear now half a year since the merge and it still has them installed and ready to be powered but idled, thus still costing them in terms of maintenance, gear depreciation, and space usage, I somehow doubt they are not bankrupt yet. A 2080 is making 20 cents and a 1660S 10 cents at 3 cents per kwh, at 5cents/kwh you're making 2 (TWO!) dollars a month you would be better off selling them for scrap and resell the energy at this revenue.

Anyhow, seems like every pattern is broken now:

Latest Block:   782710  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.7300%  (503 / 489.63 expected, 13.37 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2202% and +2.8385%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 12:11 AM  (+7.5581%)

Quite a solid growth in the first three months, we're up nearly 100Exahash and almost 40% fortunately the price has outpaced it, but still looking back in order to get to 2021 profitability levels we need BTC at $170k and no diff increase.

Weird that I don't see Bitmain asking already $10k for their XP, still on sale for $5k.

the word "sale" tho  . ROI is still a dozen months.

And another sale!
We now have a pizza day event, claiming 50%. But the way this whole thing of NFT, reservation, U/T and coupons is just gibberish for me without at least two cups of coffee right now.

[philipma1957]

<big snip>

Weird that I don't see Bitmain asking already $10k for their XP, still on sale for $5k.

the word "sale" tho  . ROI is still a dozen months.

And another sale!
We now have a pizza day event, claiming 50%. But the way this whole thing of NFT, reservation, U/T and coupons is just gibberish for me without at least two cups of coffee right now.

Fuck bitmain they still owe me a 30% coupon from a sale back in sept or oct of 2022.

The fucking rules for this 'sale' are so fucking complicated only a fool would buy that gear.

On topic I get 2 whatsminer m50 units today

they hash at 108+108 = 216 th cost 3770 burn 6 kwatts

or get this xp that does 140th cost over 3500 with shipping and wait a month burns 3.100 kwatts

If you are a 5 cent power guy the m50 units are far better deal.

[kano]

My 30 m50+ do 130TH on 25J/TH = 3250W
though they did cost a lot more back then - almost 5btc ~$3.4k each (delivered/+tax included)

[mikeywith]

As we get closer to the 1000th block, the pace seems to slow down

Latest Block:   782821  (18 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   103.2682%  (614 / 594.57 expected, 19.43 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                           
Current Difficulty:   46843400286276.55                           
Next Difficulty:   between 47642673924423 and 48416414367583
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7063% and +3.3580%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 12:11 AM  (+7.5581%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 6, 2023 at 1:33 PM  (in 9d 10h 16m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 6, 2023 at 6:42 PM  (in 9d 15h 24m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 13h 21m 58s and 13d 18h 30m 32s

So it's either the theory we were discussing is dismissed, or they saw us talk about it so they decided to play mind games with us (conspiracy theories are fun).

Anyway, redoing the math over and over again I still don't see how that theory holds up, also one point I failed to mention in my previous calculation is the fact this "game" becomes harder to play the more the network grows, I could see this played on small coins but not with BTC, so the theory of someone shutting down to help keep diff low is kind of dismissed for me at this stage, something like Bitmain, Canaan or MicroBT randomly testing/abusing gears and causing massive hashrate swings seems more reasonable to me, of course, just being random luck variance still holds the strongest possibility of them all, until proven otherwise.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator




Latest Block:   782915  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.8723%  (708 / 688.23 expected, 19.77 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                           
Current Difficulty:   46843400286276.55                           
Next Difficulty:   between 47633659686477 and 48225106462070
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.6870% and +2.9496%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 6:11 PM  (+7.5581%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 6, 2023 at 8:48 AM  (in 8d 19h 54m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 6, 2023 at 12:45 PM  (in 8d 23h 51m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 14h 37m 6s and 13d 18h 34m 3s
Copy stats to clipboard

I guess it is just random variations.

[mikeywith]

Current Pace:   102.8723%  (708 / 688.23 expected, 19.77 ahead)
I guess it is just random variations.

These numbers make more sense, the 10% and above doesn't seem realistic and normal by any means, I mean we are at about 350EH now, 10% is 35EH, that is the equivalent of 350,000 S19j pro or M30/M50, and 1,000,000 KW or 1000MW, that happening in 2 weeks is just not in the cards, 1% is 35,000 gears and 100MW, still some big numbers but doable, 2% is 200MW and 70,000 gears, not impossible, but even 5% doesn't make sense, let alone 10% or 12%.

[BitcoinSoloMiner]

What if there is a single machine capable of pulling these kind of numbers?

I do wonder what happens outside of the public eye...