2023 Diff thread now opened.

[philipma1957]

So new diff is 48.7 vs 47.8

a 1.72% jump

price is down just a bit.

[1714682425]

1714682425

[1714682425]

1714682425

[1714682425]

1714682425

[kano]

... and only 84 blocks into the diff so the numbers mean absolutely nothing but it calcs to -22.45% lol

[philipma1957]

... and only 84 blocks into the diff so the numbers mean absolutely nothing but it calcs to -22.45% lol

139 into this jump

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   786378  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   87.9583%  (139 / 158.03 expected, 19.03 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                            
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                            
Next Difficulty:   between 42995799881235 and 47865082564807
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.7354% and -1.7394%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 5:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 4, 2023 at 11:59 AM  (in 13d 3h 47m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 6, 2023 at 3:52 AM  (in 14d 19h 39m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 7m 28s and 15d 21h 59m 56s
Copy stats to clipboard

12.04% off or 19 blocks off.

lets see this in  139 more blocks we would need be 38 blocks off

then 139 more and 57 blocks off

three days starts a trend.


 price is off a bit 28k

[mikeywith]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   786378  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   87.9583%  (139 / 158.03 expected, 19.03 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                            
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                            
Next Difficulty:   between 42995799881235 and 47865082564807
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.7354% and -1.7394%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 5:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 4, 2023 at 11:59 AM  (in 13d 3h 47m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 6, 2023 at 3:52 AM  (in 14d 19h 39m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 7m 28s and 15d 21h 59m 56s
Copy stats to clipboard

It's 97.5% now, still too early.

Current Pace:   97.5491%  (521 / 534.09 expected, 13.09 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                           
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                           
Next Difficulty:   between 47567336007328 and 48190286122371
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.3507% and -1.0718%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 11:52 AM  (+1.7220%)

The last adjustment of 1.72% was very logical, as I mentioned in my previous posts, given the current hashrate and price, I expect most adjustments will be small in either direction with more positive adjustments, I mean something like 10% up or down is just unrealistic, to lose or gain 35EH worth of hashrate in a span of 2 weeks is not something I would expect, that's because 35EH is roughly 350,000 S19j pro and 1000mw, I don't care if you are building in the U.S or somewhere on the moon, but the chances of doing that in 2 weeks are slim to nothing.

Of course, a negative adjustment of 10% has more chances of happening, turning mining gears off is a lot easier, if BTC's price falls 30% in a week (which isn't unusual) then something like a negative 10% adjustment is on the cards.

[stompix]

Again playing around -2 and +2%, boooooring!

The last adjustment of 1.72% was very logical, as I mentioned in my previous posts, given the current hashrate and price, I expect most adjustments will be small in either direction with more positive adjustments,

I was curious about this on the last adjustment but forgot about it, so the interesting part about those is that the last time we had 3 consecutive adjustments under 2.5% (+ or -) was on 2022-07-07 , prior to that on 2021-03-19 and 2019-12-19.
So 3 times in 4 years, and not even once we had 4 in a row.

Of course, the median gets blurry when we add the adjustment that came after but still, long periods of small changes were quite rare in the past, so we might see the first signs of growth finally! slowing down. As you said it, 1 GW of power and hundreds of thousands of miners getting produced, shipped, and installed in such small intervals is just becoming an impossible incremental task.

Also, Sweden ended its love story with bitcoin mining, so only Norway and Iceland are left in Europe, seems like opportunities are still going down.
This is, unless you plan on mining only when the sun is up and the wind is blowing, just like a few days ago when electricity prices in the Netherlands went to -200 euros per Mwh 

[mikeywith]

I was curious about this on the last adjustment but forgot about it, so the interesting part about those is that the last time we had 3 consecutive adjustments under 2.5% (+ or -) was on 2022-07-07 , prior to that on 2021-03-19 and 2019-12-19.
So 3 times in 4 years, and not even once we had 4 in a row.

That's an interesting observation, will need to dig deeper into it to find similar "random" patterns, although if I had to pick a date on the price chart, we are close to Dec 2019 than to any other period, it was the first downtrend right after a rally from the bottom in Dec 2018, we seem to be in a very similar situation, a bottom of 15k in Nov 2022, a rally to 30k and now going down.

As you said it, 1 GW of power and hundreds of thousands of miners getting produced, shipped, and installed in such small intervals is just becoming an impossible incremental task.

One point to keep in mind is that the gear efficiency has improved by a lot (50w/th in that era vs 25w/th today) we were nearly 50% less efficient back then, and in Dec 2019 the total hashrate was around 100EH, so every 10% was 10EH or 500MW vs 1000MW today, so despite having been double effienct today, the current hashrate caused the cost of the increase to be double in terms of power.

[kano]

I was curious about this on the last adjustment but forgot about it, so the interesting part about those is that the last time we had 3 consecutive adjustments under 2.5% (+ or -) was on 2022-07-07 , prior to that on 2021-03-19 and 2019-12-19.
So 3 times in 4 years, and not even once we had 4 in a row.

That's an interesting observation, will need to dig deeper into it to find similar "random" patterns, although if I had to pick a date on the price chart, we are close to Dec 2019 than to any other period, it was the first downtrend right after a rally from the bottom in Dec 2018, we seem to be in a very similar situation, a bottom of 15k in Nov 2022, a rally to 30k and now going down.
...

Alas what was the reason for it before? Is that the same today?

Things happen for reasons, not because someone drew a graph

[mikeywith]

Things happen for reasons, not because someone drew a graph

The graph is nothing but a representation of what happened in the past, its history, and history is important because it usually repeats itself, human beings tend to repeat the things they or someone else has done in the past, and thus looking at past actions can help you predict the future better.

It's really not the events themselves but rather the psychology of the people who participated in those events.

Here are some random observation regarding gear prices for instance and you can test that against future prices I am pretty sure it will repeat, more people buy mining gears when the price is moving up than when the price is flat or going down, gear prices are now lower than when BTC was at 23-34k coming up from 20k despite profitability being better now, we could not observe something like that without at least drawing a graph in our imaginations.



 

[kano]

Things happen for reasons, not because someone drew a graph

The graph is nothing but a representation of what happened in the past, its history, and history is important because it usually repeats itself, human beings tend to repeat the things they or someone else has done in the past, and thus looking at past actions can help you predict the future better.

It's really not the events themselves but rather the psychology of the people who participated in those events.

Here are some random observation regarding gear prices for instance and you can test that against future prices I am pretty sure it will repeat, more people buy mining gears when the price is moving up than when the price is flat or going down, gear prices are now lower than when BTC was at 23-34k coming up from 20k despite profitability being better now, we could not observe something like that without at least drawing a graph in our imaginations.

Nice - you gave reasons
Now you get what I mean?

[philipma1957]

nice we rally back to 29.7k and we drop in diff

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   787108  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.9536%  (869 / 905.65 expected, 36.65 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                            
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                            
Next Difficulty:   between 46769607060434 and 47381310775694
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.9883% and -2.7326%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 5:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 4, 2023 at 3:27 PM  (in 8d 2h 38m 29s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 4, 2023 at 8:02 PM  (in 8d 7h 13m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 34m 57s and 14d 14h 10m 9s
Copy stats to clipboard

Latest Block:   787232  (24 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.7607%  (993 / 1047.90 expected, 54.9 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                           
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                           
Next Difficulty:   between 46184393268994 and 46809922782042
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.1897% and -3.9055%
Previous Retarget:   April 20, 2023 at 5:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   May 4, 2023 at 7:39 PM  (in 7d 7h 8m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 5, 2023 at 12:26 AM  (in 7d 11h 55m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 13h 47m 37s and 14d 18h 34m 38s
Copy stats to clipboard


price at 29.1k nice diff drop.

[altair_tech]

Difficulty is projected to adjust downward next week, despite the recent BTC price hike.
Sounds like it's curtailment season. Must be getting hot in Texas. 

[stompix]

Difficulty is projected to adjust downward next week, despite the recent BTC price hike.
Sounds like it's curtailment season. Must be getting hot in Texas.  

If a max of 27C is enough for datacenters to start shutting down then we will be at 100Exa by summer  
I suppose rather than Texas there are other places in the world where there is simply not enough cheap electricity available anymore and all the rumors about crackdown after crackdown on Kazach miners might be true to some extent.
There are rumors about Venezuela also,
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/04/20/bitcoin-miners-trapped-in-alleged-20-billion-corruption-scheme-in-venezuela/?sh=21313b7b6b65

so, a ton of possibilities.
But, rather refreshing to see some larger moves, be it up or down, it was really boring.

The graph is nothing but a representation of what happened in the past, its history, and history is important because it usually repeats itself, human beings tend to repeat the things they or someone else has done in the past, and thus looking at past actions can help you predict the future better.

Especially mistakes, but I wonder how a fully enforced US ban will look compared to what happened after China did it, probably one of the events where the start will look the same with a huge drop in difficulty but the recovery will probably be nowhere near the same if there would be a recovery in a year timeframe at all.
Same with the halving, I'm so curious if we stick to patterns or if we completely go off script this time.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   787488  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.9635%  (1249 / 1315.24 expected, 66.24 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                            
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                            
Next Difficulty:   between 46278315683643 and 46615476346293
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.9969% and -4.3047%
Previous Retarget:   April 20, 2023 at 5:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 9:06 PM  (in 5d 12h 2m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 11:41 PM  (in 5d 14h 36m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 14m 26s and 14d 17h 49m 12s
Copy stats to clipboard



have to say nice numbers with only 5 days to go.

Latest Block:
787876  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:

98.5358%  (1637 / 1661.33 expected, 24.33 behind)

Previous Difficulty:
47887764338536.25                           
Current Difficulty:
48712405953118.43                           
Next Difficulty:
between 48014986851432 and 48039294796467
Next Difficulty Change:
between -1.4317% and -1.3818%
Previous Retarget:
April 20, 2023 at 5:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
Thursday at 10:41 AM  (in 2d 15h 55m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest):
Thursday at 10:51 AM  (in 2d 16h 6m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 14d 4h 48m 59s and 14d 4h 59m 34s
Copy stats to clipboard


closing in on zero we were -66 blocks now we are -21 blocks

3 days left.

[mikeywith]

closing in on zero we were -66 blocks now we are -21 blocks

3 days left.

The pace seems to have slowed down a tiny bit compared to what you posted yesterday.

Latest Block:   788025  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   98.2477%  (1786 / 1817.85 expected, 31.85 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                           
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                           
Next Difficulty:   between 47873266311269 and 47884002736926
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.7226% and -1.7006%
Previous Retarget:   April 20, 2023 at 11:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 6:46 PM  (in 1d 14h 56m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 6:51 PM  (in 1d 15h 1m 1s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 54m 52s and 14d 5h 59m 33s

With just a bit over a day left for this epoch to finish, it's very likely to end up with a small negative adjustment, maybe not enough to wipe out the previous 1.7% jump but pretty close, meanwhile, the price is at 28.5k, the good/bad thing (depends on how you look at it) is that fees have been incredibly high for the last blocks, I saw 1.8 BTC fee block earlier, many blocks were above 1BTC in fees, I think the average for the past 24 hours is pretty close 1BTC per block.

[philipma1957]

closing in on zero we were -66 blocks now we are -21 blocks

3 days left.

The pace seems to have slowed down a tiny bit compared to what you posted yesterday.

Latest Block:   788025  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   98.2477%  (1786 / 1817.85 expected, 31.85 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                            
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                            
Next Difficulty:   between 47873266311269 and 47884002736926
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.7226% and -1.7006%
Previous Retarget:   April 20, 2023 at 11:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 6:46 PM  (in 1d 14h 56m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 6:51 PM  (in 1d 15h 1m 1s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 54m 52s and 14d 5h 59m 33s

With just a bit over a day left for this epoch to finish, it's very likely to end up with a small negative adjustment, maybe not enough to wipe out the previous 1.7% jump but pretty close, meanwhile, the price is at 28.5k, the good/bad thing (depends on how you look at it) is that fees have been incredibly high for the last blocks, I saw 1.8 BTC fee block earlier, many blocks were above 1BTC in fees, I think the average for the past 24 hours is pretty close 1BTC per block.

yeah block fees are great. yeah ordinals and NFTS!

fees

0.96
0.62
1.15
1.08
0.69
1.21
0.69
1.21
0.69
1.30
0.78
0.75
1.14
0.77
1.45
1.59
0.78
0.66
0.96
0.86
1.09
0.91
1.30
0.81
0.91
0.78
0.83
1.32
0.99
1.05
0.94
0.92
0.92

1.01
1.09
1.31
1.33
1.24
1.36
1.13
1.19
1.29
1.36
1.60
1.53
1.75
1.52
1.49
1.82
1.23
1.64
1.49

look at that nice streak

[kano]

I'm not seeing high byte blocks though.
So it's unlikely to be NFT's anyway.

Last 74 blocks:

Code:

  Block - Bytes
 788004 - 157873
 788005 - 158090
 788006 - 177811
 788007 - 192605
 788008 - 184588
 788009 - 157414
 788010 - 163424
 788011 - 154111
 788012 - 165699
 788013 - 161306
 788014 - 160399
 788015 - 170885
 788016 - 128191
 788017 - 145063
 788018 - 171488
 788019 - 153371
 788020 - 184045
 788021 - 168162
 788022 - 159542
 788023 - 167323
 788024 - 158417
 788025 - 177172
 788026 - 177262
 788027 - 157726
 788028 - 146792
 788029 - 154253
 788030 - 144443
 788031 - 162129
 788032 - 160720
 788033 - 165564
 788034 - 170386
 788035 - 168929
 788036 - 169191
 788037 - 158982
 788038 - 143787
 788039 - 165678
 788040 - 174587
 788041 - 167457
 788042 - 177449
 788043 - 165934
 788044 - 152205
 788045 - 166347
 788046 - 153777
 788047 - 172925
 788048 - 135323
 788049 - 157944
 788050 - 158121
 788051 - 154959
 788052 - 175745
 788053 - 157771
 788054 - 162433
 788055 - 166303
 788056 - 182878
 788057 - 153249
 788058 - 147789
 788059 - 146574
 788060 - 155896
 788061 - 150444
 788062 - 174478
 788063 - 177330
 788064 - 165953
 788065 - 180575
 788066 - 160370
 788067 - 167794
 788068 -     42
 788069 - 192629
 788070 - 164560
 788071 - 156728
 788072 - 171154
 788073 - 167399
 788074 - 171318
 788075 - 135056
 788076 - 160764
 788077 - 155926

Biggest is only 192629 bytes - only 6 above 180000 bytes, so they must be mostly '1' address transactions, not NFTs

... and FUPool in there with an empty block - idiots

[Wind_FURY]

Biggest is only 192629 bytes - only 6 above 180000 bytes, so they must be mostly '1' address transactions, not NFTs

For now, I believe most Ordinals users have been efficient in making their transactions by paying only 1 to 3 SATs per byte, just as how Bitcoin should be if all of the participants in the network are rational.

Plus any theories why mining power has been reaching ATH every month for the year? Many people will say that "the miners follow the price". But I have another theory, "the miners are also speculators". Some miners are probably mining Bitcoin to currently HODL and wait for a better price?

[philipma1957]

Biggest is only 192629 bytes - only 6 above 180000 bytes, so they must be mostly '1' address transactions, not NFTs

For now, I believe most Ordinals users have been efficient in making their transactions by paying only 1 to 3 SATs per byte, just as how Bitcoin should be if all of the participants in the network are rational.

Plus any theories why mining power has been reaching ATH every month for the year? Many people will say that "the miners follow the price". But I have another theory, "the miners are also speculators". Some miners are probably mining Bitcoin to currently HODL and wait for a better price?

Sure I do it all the time. I am a small commercial farmer maybe 160kwatts.


I mine multiple coins and hodl profits. At current prices the only way I spend BTC is buying new gear to grow the mine. Even though btc price is meh gear prices dropped. So using low priced btc to buy low priced ming gear is good.

If not hold the btc.

[Wind_FURY]

Biggest is only 192629 bytes - only 6 above 180000 bytes, so they must be mostly '1' address transactions, not NFTs

For now, I believe most Ordinals users have been efficient in making their transactions by paying only 1 to 3 SATs per byte, just as how Bitcoin should be if all of the participants in the network are rational.

Plus any theories why mining power has been reaching ATH every month for the year? Many people will say that "the miners follow the price". But I have another theory, "the miners are also speculators". Some miners are probably mining Bitcoin to currently HODL and wait for a better price?

Sure I do it all the time. I am a small commercial farmer maybe 160kwatts.


I mine multiple coins and hodl profits. At current prices the only way I spend BTC is buying new gear to grow the mine. Even though btc price is meh gear prices dropped. So using low priced btc to buy low priced ming gear is good.

If not hold the btc.

 

That's bullish coming from a person who knows the idiosyncrasies of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Plus what do the large mining farm operators know that they would be prepared to invest more money to increase hashing power if it's not another surge for Bitcoin and the super cycle?

If the miners are mining and HODLing more, mere plebs should also start buying and HODLing more.

[philipma1957]

Biggest is only 192629 bytes - only 6 above 180000 bytes, so they must be mostly '1' address transactions, not NFTs

For now, I believe most Ordinals users have been efficient in making their transactions by paying only 1 to 3 SATs per byte, just as how Bitcoin should be if all of the participants in the network are rational.

Plus any theories why mining power has been reaching ATH every month for the year? Many people will say that "the miners follow the price". But I have another theory, "the miners are also speculators". Some miners are probably mining Bitcoin to currently HODL and wait for a better price?

Sure I do it all the time. I am a small commercial farmer maybe 160kwatts.


I mine multiple coins and hodl profits. At current prices the only way I spend BTC is buying new gear to grow the mine. Even though btc price is meh gear prices dropped. So using low priced btc to buy low priced ming gear is good.

If not hold the btc.

 

That's bullish coming from a person who knows the idiosyncrasies of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Plus what do the large mining farm operators know that they would be prepared to invest more money to increase hashing power if it's not another surge for Bitcoin and the super cycle?

If the miners are mining and HODLing more, mere plebs should also start buying and HODLing more.

yeah

new jump soon

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   788253  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.4623%  (2014 / 2045.45 expected, 31.45 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   47887764338536.25                           
Current Difficulty:   48712405953118.43                           
Next Difficulty:   between 47976234808667 and 47976235522250
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.5113% and -1.5113%
Previous Retarget:   April 20, 2023 at 5:52 AM  (+1.7220%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:06 AM  (in 0d 0h 20m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:06 AM  (in 0d 0h 20m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 14m 50s and 14d 5h 14m 50s
Copy stats to clipboard