2023 Diff thread now opened.

[mikeywith]

The this miner at full power hashes at 'A' and takes this much power. At this % of full power it's hashing at 'B' and needs 'C' power for cooling so I am entitled to 'D' in compensation is going to be a lot more of an accounting nightmare.

True, it all depends on what tools they have in place and how does the calculation take place between those mining farms and the electric company, if they don't have a good mechanism already in place to do all the accounting for actual power consumption vs what is needed on the grid and all that, then it would probably be either 100% load or 0%, we will find out simply by looking at the difficulty change.

If we get a massive 10-14% difficulty drop, then we know those folks had to shut down the main switch, if it's just 4-5% then we know it's a matter or reducing their power to x, which gives the farm operates the change to either underclock their gears or shutdown a % of them, at the end of the day, if you limit to x amount of power I can use, it's probably up to me how I wanna use it.

Why is power here in the NE more money, because it works. Even after super storm Sandy 99.99% were back up in under 2 weeks.

Do miners and server hosts locate in Texas for any good reason? is the power cheaper than the average cold states? I'd imagine it cost a ton of money to cool server rooms in the summer, no amount of airflow can fix that, they are going to spend about 1/3 of their power just for cooling, is power cheap enough to offset that during the summer?

[1714249427]

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[stompix]

For 1th to make 40 cents at the current diffuclty we would need BTC price to be at 170k, and for that to happen without difficulty at least doing a double has exactly zero chances unless it happens overnight, but hey, 20 cents would do just fine.

I know the chances are zero but I don't know about the doubling difficulty.
I don't think there are even 200 exa of hashing power that is standing on the side right now, in January 2022 we had 200exa on the chain for around 20cents per th/s so for a doubling every single gear that was mining then would need to be offline now and ready to pounce. I also doubt that Bitmain and co have on stock ready to deploy another 100exa to make it double.

But still, yeah, probably zero chances unless it's for a few minutes a sudden pump that right now has no way of managing to prop the price for more than minutes at those levels. If it goes to $150k tomorrow I admit I might be one of the guys dumping a few coins too.

It's estimated that Texas has 14% of the global hashrate, they could probably get away with 20-30% underclocking, so that is no more than 2.8%-4% on the global scale, and that assumes other miners in colder places are not going to keep adding any gear, so in the best case scenario difficulty just remains somewhat flat, so instead of the usually 2-3% spikes, we go to -1 to 1% adjustments till the heat is gone, but 10% is just way too much.

Well, it doesn't have to be only Texas that is affected, but I remember that their grid is independent so the other areas might get away without power restrictions. Probably the fellows in the US know this better. As for the other thing about the datacenters there, I'm curious too but I wonder if it's not about taxes also, not just energy.

I don't know how things work there but usually here when we're faced with grid problems here in EE due to plants going offline large consumers are put completely offline,  there is no powering down or keeping running at half or so, they shut down every large consumer check to see if there is enough spare capacity left after and only then instruct a few to come back online again. I almost forgot about those things but back in the 90s, they were like the once-a-week normal event.

[philipma1957]

Well we went from +1% to -2.53%

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   795588  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.4638%  (1285 / 1318.44 expected, 33.44 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   51234338863442.89                            
Current Difficulty:   52350439455487.47                            
Next Difficulty:   between 51092700778251 and 51254604439211
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.4025% and -2.0933%
Previous Retarget:   June 14, 2023 at 7:09 AM  (+2.1784%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 2:45 PM  (in 5d 3h 51m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 3:54 PM  (in 5d 5h 0m 13s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 35m 37s and 14d 8h 44m 35s
Copy stats to clipboard

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/22/politics/texas-power-grid-heat-what-matters/index.html
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/23/texas-heat-wave-expand


so maybe we drop a bit more which would be nice.

A price of 33k and a drop to 50.5t works for me

[mikeywith]

I know the chances are zero but I don't know about the doubling difficulty.
I don't think there are even 200 exa of hashing power that is standing on the side right now, in January 2022 we had 200exa on the chain for around 20cents per th/s so for a doubling every single gear that was mining then would need to be offline now and ready to pounce. I also doubt that Bitmain and co have on stock ready to deploy another 100exa to make it double.

I agree that doubling difficulty from where it stands right now isn't going to be easy at all, it won't happen overnight, same as price going to nearly 200k, but with the assumption that we really do head to 200k, mining factories will ramp-up on the production, the buyers will be buying everything there is, offline gears will come online, power stations will be built accordingly.

As long as there is a free market, the difficulty will always follow price, there is no ceiling, and price moves a lot faster, but hashrate will eventually come.

Now realistically, I don't see us doubling on difficulty for at least a couple of years, even if the price does manage to hit 200k we will still have the halving which makes the value of those 200k equal to just 100k, and then by the time we climb up to say 400k, another halving will come, so this can't be price doing 2x ATH and difficulty doubling forever, I think we will soon (3-5 years) reach a sort of flat curve on both price and hashrate.

[DaveF]

Why is power here in the NE more money, because it works. Even after super storm Sandy 99.99% were back up in under 2 weeks.

Do miners and server hosts locate in Texas for any good reason? is the power cheaper than the average cold states? I'd imagine it cost a ton of money to cool server rooms in the summer, no amount of airflow can fix that, they are going to spend about 1/3 of their power just for cooling, is power cheap enough to offset that during the summer?

TX offered some really great subsidies and payment for downtime. So they got a lot of takers.
Also, it has a lot of wide open areas so you can do some things that would get you in trouble with the noise that some of larger farms generate.
The other thing was that there were a lot of large data centers leaving the state and they did have a couple of milder summers so there WAS excess power and cooling although still more then up north would not have been as bad. But the last couple of summers have been brutal.

I have joked that at the mines in upstate NY, you don't need cooling during the winter, just leave that small window in the bathroom open and you should be able to cool 50 or 60 MW with a fan.

-Dave

[philipma1957]

we dropped again

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:
795624  (29 minutes ago)
Current Pace:

96.7656%  (1321 / 1365.16 expected, 44.16 behind)

Previous Difficulty:
51234338863442.89                            
Current Difficulty:
52350439455487.47                            
Next Difficulty:
between 50724264524924 and 50912221102078
Next Difficulty Change:
between -3.1063% and -2.7473%
Previous Retarget:
June 14, 2023 at 7:09 AM  (+2.1784%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
Wednesday at 5:03 PM  (in 4d 22h 22m 13s)
Next Retarget (latest):
Wednesday at 6:23 PM  (in 4d 23h 42m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 14d 9h 53m 46s and 14d 11h 13m 51s
Copy stats to clipboard

good chance this is Texas and its heatwave.

Houston should have 10 in row at 100f
Dallas about the same.
Austin will be closer to 105 f .

So we were +1 and now -3

With some luck next weds we are at 50t for the diff and 33k for the price.
That would make for a good 2 week jump say June 26 to July 9

[stompix]

As long as there is a free market, the difficulty will always follow price, there is no ceiling, and price moves a lot faster, but hashrate will eventually come.

Now realistically, I don't see us doubling on difficulty for at least a couple of years, even if the price does manage to hit 200k we will still have the halving which makes the value of those 200k equal to just 100k, and then by the time we climb up to say 400k, another halving will come, so this can't be price doing 2x ATH and difficulty doubling forever, I think we will soon (3-5 years) reach a sort of flat curve on both price and hashrate.

That would be the normal outcome but there are a few variables:
- recession and manufacturing drop, which means more available cheap energy almost everywhere
- the money printing starts again and easy credits and easy investment money are back on the loose
- although I doubt it, some serious improvement in chip efficiency, 15J/T maybe

I tend to agree with your reasoning but at the same time, I won't be surprised to see the hash rate hit 80-90T even with the price around 50k.
From a miner's perspective it might have no logic, but for some "investors", god knows what's the logic behind their actions.

good chance this is Texas and its heatwave.

1 Month: 1   Foundry USA   32.25 %   1,415   
1 Week: 1   Foundry USA   31.43 %   112.76 EH/s
3 Days: 1   Foundry USA   32.24 %   115.67 EH/s
24 H: 1 Foundry USA   35.97 %   129.05 EH/s   

Hmm, not convinced!

[philipma1957]

As long as there is a free market, the difficulty will always follow price, there is no ceiling, and price moves a lot faster, but hashrate will eventually come.

Now realistically, I don't see us doubling on difficulty for at least a couple of years, even if the price does manage to hit 200k we will still have the halving which makes the value of those 200k equal to just 100k, and then by the time we climb up to say 400k, another halving will come, so this can't be price doing 2x ATH and difficulty doubling forever, I think we will soon (3-5 years) reach a sort of flat curve on both price and hashrate.

That would be the normal outcome but there are a few variables:
- recession and manufacturing drop, which means more available cheap energy almost everywhere
- the money printing starts again and easy credits and easy investment money are back on the loose
- although I doubt it, some serious improvement in chip efficiency, 15J/T maybe

I tend to agree with your reasoning but at the same time, I won't be surprised to see the hash rate hit 80-90T even with the price around 50k.
From a miner's perspective it might have no logic, but for some "investors", god knows what's the logic behind their actions.

good chance this is Texas and its heatwave.

1 Month: 1   Foundry USA   32.25 %   1,415   
1 Week: 1   Foundry USA   31.43 %   112.76 EH/s
3 Days: 1   Foundry USA   32.24 %   115.67 EH/s
24 H: 1 Foundry USA   35.97 %   129.05 EH/s   

Hmm, not convinced!

how closed is foundry?

Is it 100% Texas USA miners?

Did some research and they have 3 spots

NY
TX
South Dakota.

NY has had cool weather.

[mikeywith]

I tend to agree with your reasoning but at the same time, I won't be surprised to see the hash rate hit 80-90T even with the price around 50k.
From a miner's perspective it might have no logic, but for some "investors", god knows what's the logic behind their actions.

In fact, if the price hits 50k it would be very normal and reasonable for dif to hit 80-90, what is not reasonable is hitting that difficulty mark without any major price increase, look at it this way, the price at 30k, diff at 52T and they are still adding gear, judging by how much it cost those large players I did some basic math which shows that even at 60T they are still in the green zone.

so 60T difficulty and 30k BTC works fine for all large players, whichever % you add to the price you can add the same to difficulty and they will still be in the same profit zone more or less

Price at 60k means it's ok for difficulty to go to as high as 120T, all of this is only valid till the halving hits, everything by then will have to reset and new figures will have to take place.

[stompix]

how closed is foundry?

Is it 100% Texas USA miners?

Did some research and they have 3 spots

NY
TX
South Dakota.

NY has had cool weather.

Probably only they do know, but if a 3% drop in overall hashrate would have been caused by them alone they would have gone under 30% in the last 3 days which they aren't. 31.97 % over the last 24h 32.86 % over the last 3 days, so assuming no normal variations, they have lost less than 3% of their total, so splitting into 3 states, would be less than 10% in one. This unless four hours from now luck changes and they go back to 32.80%!

In fact, if the price hits 50k it would be very normal and reasonable for dif to hit 80-90, what is not reasonable is hitting that difficulty mark without any major price increase, look at it this way, the price at 30k, diff at 52T and they are still adding gear, judging by how much it cost those large players I did some basic math which shows that even at 60T they are still in the green zone.

I was probably more focused on the math some need to do that not only guarantees a profit, but also ROI for the equipment, and expenses, and that grants investors more returns than shoveling their money in government bonds. To get more gear they need more money upfront, so how are they going to attract a few billions when their statements are looking suicidal at best?! 686.7 million net loss, I know it includes impairments and unrealized losses but still, not the best thing at which you would want to throw money at, right?

[philipma1957]

how closed is foundry?

Is it 100% Texas USA miners?

Did some research and they have 3 spots

NY
TX
South Dakota.

NY has had cool weather.

Probably only they do know, but if a 3% drop in overall hashrate would have been caused by them alone they would have gone under 30% in the last 3 days which they aren't. 31.97 % over the last 24h 32.86 % over the last 3 days, so assuming no normal variations, they have lost less than 3% of their total, so splitting into 3 states, would be less than 10% in one. This unless four hours from now luck changes and they go back to 32.80%!

In fact, if the price hits 50k it would be very normal and reasonable for dif to hit 80-90, what is not reasonable is hitting that difficulty mark without any major price increase, look at it this way, the price at 30k, diff at 52T and they are still adding gear, judging by how much it cost those large players I did some basic math which shows that even at 60T they are still in the green zone.

I was probably more focused on the math some need to do that not only guarantees a profit, but also ROI for the equipment, and expenses, and that grants investors more returns than shoveling their money in government bonds. To get more gear they need more money upfront, so how are they going to attract a few billions when their statements are looking suicidal at best?! 686.7 million net loss, I know it includes impairments and unrealized losses but still, not the best thing at which you would want to throw money at, right?

I sent them an email seeing if I can join them. Maybe they will tell me how much hash I have to point to them.

Since we are at 4ph we are likely to be too small.

[philipma1957]

Talked to foundry they want 20ph minimum.
Not happening any time soon 🔜
So they take NJ miners with enough gear.

They have
 NY
SD
TX mines.

Texas is smoking crazy hot. So we may have dropped to -2 and stayed there due to that heat zone.

A lot of gear will go online in Oct. big jump then.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   796222  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.8666%  (1919 / 1960.83 expected, 41.83 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   51234338863442.89                           
Current Difficulty:   52350439455487.47                           
Next Difficulty:   between 51280792275611 and 51283218091865
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.0432% and -2.0386%
Previous Retarget:   June 14, 2023 at 7:09 AM  (+2.1784%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 2:28 PM  (in 0d 16h 30m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 2:29 PM  (in 0d 16h 31m 8s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 18m 27s and 14d 7h 19m 28s

[CryptoHFs]

What is the benefit of pointing 20p to foundry Than nicehash? I think nicehash would remain the highest payout

[philipma1957]

What is the benefit of pointing 20p to foundry Than nicehash? I think nicehash would remain the highest payout

not sure if foundry or nicehash or viabtc is best.

And I don't have the time or hash power to do a proper test.

Point 200 s19's to each one at the same time.
rotate the three group or 20ph every month.
do it for a year
That's too much work and I would need 60ph.



We are at 1967 blocks we should be at 2011

we are - 2.1%

We should get to the jump at about 2-4pm

It was a good 2 weeks.

Texas is super hot over 100 f for the next 10 days

so maybe we drop again

from google:

"The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said power use reached a preliminary 80,828 megawatts (MW) at 6 p.m. CST, topping the grid's previous record of 80,148 MW set on July 20, 2022. Peak demand is expected to set another record at 83,040 MW on Wednesday."

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/texas-power-use-breaks-record-heat-wave-ercot-2023-06-27/#:~:text=The%20Electric%20Reliability%20Council%20of,at%2083%2C040%20MW%20on%20Wednesday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/28/texas-power-use-breaks-record-in-heat-wave-power-grid-operator-says.html

[mikeywith]

What is the benefit of pointing 20p to foundry Than nicehash? I think nicehash would remain the highest payout

That is not true, nicehash doesn't always have the highest payout, contrary to what they advertise, I wrote a whole topic regarding this fact showing how in some periods miners on nicehash lost 26% to 34% of heir profits by not mining directly to a mining pool.

Almost all pools would pay you the same given fees are equal, you would of course exclude the direct scam of Antpool PPLNS and the likes of it which says it's 0% fees but keep 100% of the transaction fees.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   796304  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.0667%  (2001 / 2061.47 expected, 60.47 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   51234338863442.89                            
Current Difficulty:   52350439455487.47                            
Next Difficulty:   between 50859394181134 and 50859474375495
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.8482% and -2.8480%
Previous Retarget:   June 14, 2023 at 7:09 AM  (+2.1784%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 5:18 PM  (in 0d 2h 34m 29s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 5:18 PM  (in 0d 2h 34m 31s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 9m 10s and 14d 10h 9m 12s

some luck we could drift to -3%

Solid drop actually too much if it continues we will see a big falloff for the next jump.

Latest Block:   796317  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.6277%  (2014 / 2084.29 expected, 70.29 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   51234338863442.89                           
Current Difficulty:   52350439455487.47                           
Next Difficulty:   between 50628896385401 and 50628898024009
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.2885% and -3.2885%
Previous Retarget:   June 14, 2023 at 7:09 AM  (+2.1784%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:53 PM  (in 0d 0h 20m 41s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:53 PM  (in 0d 0h 20m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 43m 34s and 14d 11h 43m 34s
Copy stats to clipboard

[kano]

Love it how bitrawr just can't get it right

It was 50646206431058.1 (50.65T)

[stompix]

What is the benefit of pointing 20p to foundry Than nicehash? I think nicehash would remain the highest payout

Before April it was the fees, Foundry was not charging pool fees to large customers, I don't know how they made money but probably it was something the backers like DCG saw as an intelligent move to make it the largest pool.
Right now since we don't have any insiders we can't really compare payouts!

Previous Retarget:   Today at 1:46 AM  (-3.2554%)

Price at 30.5k, Viabtc shows 0.00000247 BTC ≈ $ 0.08

Room to grow, let's see if the summer heat bites more.

"The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said power use reached a preliminary 80,828 megawatts (MW) at 6 p.m. CST,

Is this enough for 3,886 Exahash/s if we consider S19XpHydro? Or am I doing something wrong?
 

[philipma1957]

What is the benefit of pointing 20p to foundry Than nicehash? I think nicehash would remain the highest payout

Before April it was the fees, Foundry was not charging pool fees to large customers, I don't know how they made money but probably it was something the backers like DCG saw as an intelligent move to make it the largest pool.
Right now since we don't have any insiders we can't really compare payouts!

Previous Retarget:   Today at 1:46 AM  (-3.2554%)

Price at 30.5k, Viabtc shows 0.00000247 BTC ≈ $ 0.08

Room to grow, let's see if the summer heat bites more.

"The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said power use reached a preliminary 80,828 megawatts (MW) at 6 p.m. CST,

Is this enough for 3,886 Exahash/s if we consider S19XpHydro? Or am I doing something wrong?
 

Well assume the 80,828,000 kwatts are hourly.
and a s19xp hydro uses 5.304 kwatts hourly
1 unit does 255th

so 80,828,000/5.304 = 15,239,064.85 units

I will round that down to 15,000,000 units due to cooling the gear.

1,000 x 255th = 255ph
10,000 x 255th = 2.55eh
100,000 x 255th = 25.5eh
1,000,000 x 255th = 255eh
15,000,000 x 255th = 3,825eh

You were close. You just forgot to allow for the cooling towers and pumps using some energy.

[mikeywith]

Right now since we don't have any insiders we can't really compare payouts!

Don't really need an insider to tell us, the payouts can't be more than any regular pool with fees ignored, we also know that running a pool with no fees at all is simply losing money, Binance did that for a while, so did foundry, it's all done to attract clients and then it's gone, depending on the payout method, if it's PPS then anything below 2% is very unlikely, so my assumption which I am pretty sure will hold correct to good degree, foundry charges something pretty similar to what most other pools charge based on whatever payment they use.

"The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said power use reached a preliminary 80,828 megawatts (MW) at 6 p.m. CST,

Is this enough for 3,886 Exahash/s if we consider S19XpHydro? Or am I doing something wrong?

80KMW is a LOT of power, I wonder how much of it is used by businesses vs houses, with temps going to as high as 45c, they sure are burning a lot of electricity, would be pretty damn hard to go "green" with that kind of demand.