2023 Diff thread now opened.

[philipma1957]

"BTC Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator" is right on top.

I am thinking he did not want to be redundant.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

BTC Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator

Latest Block:   804315  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.0402%  (1948 / 1819.88 expected, 128.12 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   52328312063443.84                            
Current Difficulty:   52391178981379.36                            
Next Difficulty:   between 56104466001604 and 56108995644877
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.0876% and +7.0963%
Previous Retarget:   August 9, 2023 at 8:18 AM  (+0.1201%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 10:12 AM  (in 0d 10h 35m 16s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 10:13 AM  (in 0d 10h 36m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 1h 54m 3s and 13d 1h 55m 33s

Copy stats to clipboard

This will be a pretty fucking brutal drop in profits for miners.

diff to jump by 7%

and price is at 26,000

a 100 th  machine will earn only $5.65-5.75 pre-power

and if it burns 30watts a th it needs to be under 8 cents to break even

if it is an xp and burns 21 watts a th doing 140th it will

earn $8.05 and needs to be at 10 cents to break even.

So we are very close to miners limits not quite there yet.




A drop to 20k for 2 weeks and the diff staying flat  would really put the screws to miners.

100th  s19pro makes $4.34 it would need about 5.4 cent power
140th s19 xp makes  $6.08 it would need about 7.6 cent power.

I am not sure we could drop this much the next two weeks.

[1714254656]

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[1714254656]

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[1714254656]

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[philipma1957]

We are in a cold streak or a shutdown of hash for the last few hours.
yet to do next jump

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
BTC Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator

Latest Block:   804381  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   106.0329%  (2014 / 1899.41 expected, 114.59 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   52328312063443.84                           
Current Difficulty:   52391178981379.36                           
Next Difficulty:   between 55579769268257 and 55579772597433
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.0861% and +6.0861%
Previous Retarget:   August 9, 2023 at 8:18 AM  (+0.1201%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 1:11 PM  (in 0d 0h 18m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 1:11 PM  (in 0d 0h 18m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 4h 52m 58s and 13d 4h 52m 58s

Copy stats to clipboard

[stompix]

Previous Retarget:   Today at 7:57 PM  (+6.1657%)

Auch! 

Current Pace:   120.2997%  (16 / 13.30 expected, 2.7 ahead)

Lol! 

I know it's just 2 hours, 16 blocks but common, let's all agree that forgetting all the tears when running income numbers it will be funny as hell seeing a 20% jump in difference right now. I even lost count, what would that be, like 600k machines?
Now on the serious side, I expect a drop, it just has to be, if not the price the heat:
https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/ercot-issues-texas-weather-watch-expects-18307411.php

5.9 cents per th! Damn!
You guys remember late 2021? 40 cents!

[kano]

"BTC Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator" is right on top.

I am thinking he did not want to be redundant.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

BTC Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator

Latest Block:   804315  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.0402%  (1948 / 1819.88 expected, 128.12 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   52328312063443.84                            
Current Difficulty:   52391178981379.36                            
Next Difficulty:   between 56104466001604 and 56108995644877
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.0876% and +7.0963%
Previous Retarget:   August 9, 2023 at 8:18 AM  (+0.1201%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 10:12 AM  (in 0d 10h 35m 16s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 10:13 AM  (in 0d 10h 36m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 1h 54m 3s and 13d 1h 55m 33s

Copy stats to clipboard

And yet the numbers are wrong as usual - he even states ranges that are wrong.
Is there a point is claiming an accuracy that is this badly wrong?

Next Difficulty:   between 56104466001604 and 56108995644877 -> Nope it was 55.6T
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.0876% and +7.0963% -> Nope it was 6.17%
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 10:12 AM  (in 0d 10h 35m 16s) -> Nope
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 10:13 AM  (in 0d 10h 36m 47s) -> Nope

The ranges are way off the mark.
... he is specifically doing some inaccurate calculation to come up with them.
It's not a reasonable: "current value gives this result but it's not complete yet",
it's "calculate a range" ... but it's wrong

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

BTC Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator

Latest Block:   804540  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   114.5836%  (157 / 137.02 expected, 19.98 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   52391178981379.36                            
Current Difficulty:   55621444139429.57                            
Next Difficulty:   between 56810115789397 and 64659578564122
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.1371% and +16.2494%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 12:57 PM  (+6.1657%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 3, 2023 at 6:11 PM  (in 11d 6h 23m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 5, 2023 at 6:32 AM  (in 12d 18h 45m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 5h 14m 8s and 13d 17h 35m 55s

Copy stats to clipboard

For me personally the bold type number is very accurate and it is what I always paid attention to.

below are the guesses made

Next Difficulty:   between 56810115789397 and 64659578564122
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.1371% and +16.2494%

most of the time they are wrong
but I will say this range will almost certainly be good this time.

between +2.1 % and + 16.2 %

All the years I gave away money/btc we would run the contest and let you pick after 500 blocks made.  very few of us got it right.  It is what made it fun.

I should run a new contest  giving away 0.001 btc
I did ranges you could pick one

01) 0.00 to   0.50%
02) 0.51 to   1.00%
03) 1.01 to   1.50%
04) 1.51 to   2.00%
05) 2.01 to   2.50%
06) 2.51 to   3.00%
07) 3.01 to   3.50%
08) 3.51 to   4.00%
09) 4.01 to   4.50%
10) 4.51 to   5.00%
11) 5.01 to   5.50%
12) 5.51 to   6.00%
13) 6.01 to   6.50%
14) 6.51 to   7.00%
15) 7.01 to   7.50%
16) 7.51 to   8.00%
17) 8.01 to   8.50%
18) 8.51 to   9.00%
19) 9.01 to   9.50%
20) 9.51 to 10.00%

I would open picking at 500 blocks and close it at 1000.

If we go out of range no winner. and new hedge numbers are official decider for winner.
No newbies no double ghost entries.
I run it and decide if I think you are trying to game system.
It used to be fun to do.

Not sure if I will do it.

[mikeywith]

BTC Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator
Current Pace:   114.5836%  (157 / 137.02 expected, 19.98 ahead)

Well current pace and previous retargets are the only two accurate figures, because one is "past" and one is "present" the rest are in the future, nobody can get them right, you may get lucky ones or twice, but without a crystal ball -- it's nothing but a wild guess.

All the years I gave away money/btc we would run the contest and let you pick after 500 blocks made.  very few of us got it right.  It is what made it fun.

I should run a new contest  giving away 0.001 btc
I did ranges you could pick one

01) 0.00 to   0.50%
02) 0.51 to   1.00%
03) 1.01 to   1.50%
04) 1.51 to   2.00%
05) 2.01 to   2.50%
06) 2.51 to   3.00%
07) 3.01 to   3.50%
08) 3.51 to   4.00%
09) 4.01 to   4.50%
10) 4.51 to   5.00%
11) 5.01 to   5.50%
12) 5.51 to   6.00%
13) 6.01 to   6.50%
14) 6.51 to   7.00%
15) 7.01 to   7.50%
16) 7.51 to   8.00%
17) 8.01 to   8.50%
18) 8.51 to   9.00%
19) 9.01 to   9.50%
20) 9.51 to 10.00%

I would open picking at 500 blocks and close it at 1000.

If we go out of range no winner. and new hedge numbers are official decider for winner.
No newbies no double ghost entries.
I run it and decide if I think you are trying to game system.
It used to be fun to do.

Not sure if I will do it.

That would be fun, however, 500 to 1000 would somewhat be unfair, I mean it's ALOT easier to guess at 999 blocks into the epoch than when at 500 blocks, of course, at 500 you are likely to find more available guesses, but still, I think 24 hours past 500 blocks would be fair, so 644 or 700 blocks max

[philipma1957]

BTC Bitcoin Difficulty Estimator
Current Pace:   114.5836%  (157 / 137.02 expected, 19.98 ahead)

Well current pace and previous retargets are the only two accurate figures, because one is "past" and one is "present" the rest are in the future, nobody can get them right, you may get lucky ones or twice, but without a crystal ball -- it's nothing but a wild guess.

All the years I gave away money/btc we would run the contest and let you pick after 500 blocks made.  very few of us got it right.  It is what made it fun.

I should run a new contest  giving away 0.001 btc
I did ranges you could pick one

01) 0.00 to   0.50%
02) 0.51 to   1.00%
03) 1.01 to   1.50%
04) 1.51 to   2.00%
05) 2.01 to   2.50%
06) 2.51 to   3.00%
07) 3.01 to   3.50%
08) 3.51 to   4.00%
09) 4.01 to   4.50%
10) 4.51 to   5.00%
11) 5.01 to   5.50%
12) 5.51 to   6.00%
13) 6.01 to   6.50%
14) 6.51 to   7.00%
15) 7.01 to   7.50%
16) 7.51 to   8.00%
17) 8.01 to   8.50%
18) 8.51 to   9.00%
19) 9.01 to   9.50%
20) 9.51 to 10.00%

I would open picking at 500 blocks and close it at 1000.

If we go out of range no winner. and new hedge numbers are official decider for winner.
No newbies no double ghost entries.
I run it and decide if I think you are trying to game system.
It used to be fun to do.

Not sure if I will do it.

That would be fun, however, 500 to 1000 would somewhat be unfair, I mean it's ALOT easier to guess at 999 blocks into the epoch than when at 500 blocks, of course, at 500 you are likely to find more available guesses, but still, I think 24 hours past 500 blocks would be fair, so 644 or 700 blocks max

. I think I will do one just for fun the next jump.  Maybe 600 to 800 or 600 to 850

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   805464  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.3198%  (1081 / 1134.08 expected, 53.08 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   52391178981379.36                           
Current Difficulty:   55621444139429.57                           
Next Difficulty:   between 53110191459673 and 53631034049130
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.5149% and -3.5785%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2023 at 12:57 PM  (+6.1657%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 6, 2023 at 1:53 AM  (in 6d 15h 56m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 6, 2023 at 5:26 AM  (in 6d 19h 29m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 12h 56m 56s and 14d 16h 29m 51s

[kano]

Yeah I am clearly talking about the ranges, not the other data he provides
... and by the looks of it that 'should be correct' range could be wrong also

between +2.1 % and + 16.2 %

I get -4.05% at the moment, but who knows what it will be

Just better hope no one ever looks at those ranges on his site and makes a decision based on them ...

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   805967  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.6707%  (1584 / 1638.55 expected, 54.55 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   52391178981379.36                            
Current Difficulty:   55621444139429.57                            
Next Difficulty:   between 53834150786468 and 53913700598948
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.2133% and -3.0703%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2023 at 12:57 PM  (+6.1657%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 11:59 PM  (in 3d 1h 56m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 12:31 AM  (in 3d 2h 28m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 2m 25s and 14d 11h 34m 17s

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strong price drop causing a diff drop.


We are rallying back and may go under 2%

"Latest Block:   806088  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   97.8060%  (1705 / 1743.25 expected, 38.25 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   52391178981379.36                            
Current Difficulty:   55621444139429.57                            
Next Difficulty:   between 54462470261339 and 54489490168592
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.0837% and -2.0351%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2023 at 12:57 PM  (+6.1657%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 8:18 PM  (in 2d 4h 49m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 8:29 PM  (in 2d 4h 59m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 21m 27s and 14d 7h 32m 13s"


-54.55 to -38.25 blocks

1584 to 1705 blocks means 121 blocks in the same time that 105 blocks should be made

small block section of 121 or 105 does not mean the rally is true.

lets see what it does in another day.


and maybe -1.8% will prevail.

Latest Block:   806241  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.0352%  (1858 / 1895.24 expected, 37.24 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   52391178981379.36                            
Current Difficulty:   55621444139429.57                            
Next Difficulty:   between 54585147465080 and 54591394862779
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.8631% and -1.8519%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2023 at 12:57 PM  (+6.1657%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:38 PM  (in 1d 2h 49m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:41 PM  (in 1d 2h 51m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 41m 33s and 14d 6h 44m 2s

Copy stats to clipboard


price sucks we are pretty down in profits under 6 cents a th


34 blocks to go  negative 2-3% looks like a solid bet

Latest Block:   806365  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   97.3967%  (1982 / 2034.98 expected, 52.98 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   52391178981379.36                            
Current Difficulty:   55621444139429.57                            
Next Difficulty:   between 54225775013684 and 54226162026954
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.5092% and -2.5085%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2023 at 12:57 PM  (+6.1657%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 9:55 PM  (in 0d 5h 48m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 9:55 PM  (in 0d 5h 49m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 8h 58m 41s and 14d 8h 58m 51s

Copy stats to clipboard

I will run a retro pick the diff. in late sept or early oct. prize will be 0.001 btc

for now we are 2 blocks away looks like negative 2.6 or 2.7 %


Latest Block:   806397  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.2262%  (2014 / 2071.46 expected, 57.46 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   52391178981379.36                           
Current Difficulty:   55621444139429.57                           
Next Difficulty:   between 54129918208363 and 54129919636944
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.6816% and -2.6816%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2023 at 12:57 PM  (+6.1657%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 10:32 PM  (in 0d 0h 20m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 10:32 PM  (in 0d 0h 20m 34s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 35m 9s and 14d 9h 35m 9s

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   806738  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.2042%  (339 / 348.75 expected, 9.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   55621444139429.57                            
Current Difficulty:   54150142369480                              
Next Difficulty:   between 52680044349553 and 53688633068616
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.7149% and -0.8523%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 10:24 PM  (-2.6452%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 20, 2023 at 1:23 AM  (in 11d 16h 51m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 20, 2023 at 8:04 AM  (in 11d 23h 32m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 58m 36s and 14d 9h 39m 50s

Its early under 3 days in.

Last drop was nice -2.64%

At the moment the USA temps are very high and we are down -2.7%

In August Texas miners were paid to shut down gear over 30 million

https://coingape.com/firm-riot-miner-cashes-in-31-million-through-texas-energy-crisis/


It is likely that this is happening again as I type.

At Sept's end Texas will cool and the Diff will soar.

We are slowly getting our box ready to mine.
We lifted up yesterday

[stompix]

3 days into the period so fewer fluctuations, and it seems it's going down again

Latest Block:   806912  (12 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.0162%  (513 / 528.78 expected, 15.78 behind)
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 5:24 AM  (-2.6452%)

Heatwave or whatever hurricane season is happening there combined with minimal revenue, getting right now including the fee a 0.0652 USD/Day/ THash/s for the last 24/h so unless there is something big coming online with new generation models I don't see it recovering to previous ATH too soon, we're already 5% down.

Yeah I am clearly talking about the ranges, not the other data he provides
... and by the looks of it that 'should be correct' range could be wrong also

between +2.1 % and + 16.2 %

I get -4.05% at the moment, but who knows what it will be

Just better hope no one ever looks at those ranges on his site and makes a decision based on them ...

To be completely honest I believe you're looking at something completely different than we all do here
First I don't understand how you could have got a positive adjustment there between Phil's post when the pace was -5% two days before and -3% one day after your post, so how in the name of god could it have shown a positive adjustment?
Second, do you have something personal against this? It's a f*** estimator, it's not an intergalactic crystal globe, it estimates things based on the pace, you know all too well that just one block in the last dozen before the adjustment proving hard to mine because it has some family issue and takes 1 hour instead of 10 minutes it will screw those statistics completely, right?

[philipma1957]

relax everyone. thanks to the diff estimator and the fact I will be joining a signature campaign.

I will be running the old giveaway promo.
I will also be donating to talk-img.

[kano]

3 days into the period so fewer fluctuations, and it seems it's going down again

Latest Block:   806912  (12 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.0162%  (513 / 528.78 expected, 15.78 behind)
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 5:24 AM  (-2.6452%)

Heatwave or whatever hurricane season is happening there combined with minimal revenue, getting right now including the fee a 0.0652 USD/Day/ THash/s for the last 24/h so unless there is something big coming online with new generation models I don't see it recovering to previous ATH too soon, we're already 5% down.

Yeah I am clearly talking about the ranges, not the other data he provides
... and by the looks of it that 'should be correct' range could be wrong also

between +2.1 % and + 16.2 %

I get -4.05% at the moment, but who knows what it will be

Just better hope no one ever looks at those ranges on his site and makes a decision based on them ...

To be completely honest I believe you're looking at something completely different than we all do here
First I don't understand how you could have got a positive adjustment there between Phil's post when the pace was -5% two days before and -3% one day after your post, so how in the name of god could it have shown a positive adjustment?
Second, do you have something personal against this? It's a f*** estimator, it's not an intergalactic crystal globe, it estimates things based on the pace, you know all too well that just one block in the last dozen before the adjustment proving hard to mine because it has some family issue and takes 1 hour instead of 10 minutes it will screw those statistics completely, right?

Sigh - had a bad day?

I quoted Phil's post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5431167.msg62737855#msg62737855
After the last diff change, at the start of this diff change.
Go read it yourself above, he specifically said what you are ranting on about,
and he got those two numbers, from that site that produces ranges by some magic calculation, and they are usually wrong.
In this case they are so far wrong, that you had to post a rant at me, about the numbers ... LOL ...

between +2.1 % and + 16.2 %

My issue with that stupid site is that, on top of reporting values based on the current state,
which is of interest and useful, they do their own magic calculation to come up with ranges that are usually wrong.
So why do they do their magic calculations that are usually wrong?
All that will do is mislead people who think the sites knows what they are doing, which clearly, with ranges, the site doesn't know what it's doing.

[philipma1957]

yeah the range is meh actually worse than meh but the actual current number is solid.

We used it for years. Next difficulty I will set the contest up again and we will have some fun.

“https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   807172  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.2783%  (773 / 778.62 expected, 5.62 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   55621444139429.57                           
Current Difficulty:   54150142369480                               
Next Difficulty:   between 53779354936729 and 53919711966306
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.6847% and -0.4255%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 10:24 PM  (-2.6452%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 19, 2023 at 11:55 PM  (in 8d 15h 44m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 20, 2023 at 12:51 AM  (in 8d 16h 40m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 30m 50s and 14d 2h 26m 33s”


the neg 0.7 percent is accurate

the estimate of -.4 to -.6 is meh

[stompix]

I quoted Phil's post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5431167.msg62737855#msg62737855
After the last diff change, at the start of this diff change.
Go read it yourself above, he specifically said what you are ranting on about,
and he got those two numbers, from that site that produces ranges by some magic calculation, and they are usually wrong.

So you quote an estimation made 1 day into the difficulty adjustment, which we all have known and stated multiple times can be misleading and often made fun of it, and then you came victorious 6 days after and show everyone that it didn't materialize, what a surprise!

My issue with that stupid site is that, on top of reporting values based on the current state,
which is of interest and useful, they do their own magic calculation to come up with ranges that are usually wrong.

If you think the site is stupid and you know it, then why don't you come up with your own math right now on what the difficulty would be?
When you criticize someone for doing it wrong then normally you would tell them what's wrong with it and how it should be done and show an example, if you don't care, don't want, can't, then your majesty, can you please let us bath in our stupidity here on a speculation topic without reminding us every damn day how stupid this is?

Sigh - had a bad day?

You're the one who always has a bad day here!
I've never seen you once coming to these topics without criticizing the calculator, telling everyone how stupid it is and how useless it is to discuss this over and over and over again and again and again! I think I finally understand the other discussions around here, sometimes this attitude is just nauseating and knowledge is totally getting eclipsed by personality.

Latest Block:   807210  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.4351%  (811 / 815.61 expected, 4.61 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.5295% and -0.3410%

Almost flat, let's see in 9 days will it be off again, it will be -0.5512% and not -0.5294%?
Oh, imagine the tragedy if it's off again, somebody think of all the children miners!!!!

And Phil sorry for doing it on your topic but I had to say it, we all get it, it's not a crystal globe it, it has flaws it's not perfect but for god's sake, we got it the first one hundred times!

[philipma1957]

Newhedge has provided a valuable number.

I use it to decide how many miners I will add to my mine.

I purchased 1 s19xp today partially based on the current slight drop of 0.5%

Most of us know 5 to 10 percent of gear hash rate is offline or underclocked. So we use his number more as a touchy feely way of where hashrate will move.

Btw luck has meaning and on any given day 139-144-149 blocks is a very easy move to happen.

It is what made the contest I ran here for years so hard to pick.

We are having a retro contest in about 10 days time.

[kano]

...
So you quote an estimation made 1 day into the difficulty adjustment, which we all have known and stated multiple times can be misleading and often made fun of it, and then you came victorious 6 days after and show everyone that it didn't materialize, what a surprise!

"we all have known" ... glad you solved that problem for the world

You clearly didn't know and then ranted at me about the numbers ...
Need I quote your exact words? OK:

First I don't understand how you could have got a positive adjustment there between Phil's post when the pace was -5% two days before and -3% one day after your post, so how in the name of god could it have shown a positive adjustment?

Rant at the site that produced the numbers that phil posted, not me.

If you think the site is stupid and you know it, then why don't you come up with your own math right now on what the difficulty would be?

Because you can't - and they claim to have some magic calculation and display it there on the web site for all to see.
The actual error bars (which is the correct term) would be massive.

Sigh - had a bad day?

You're the one who always has a bad day here!
I've never seen you once coming to these topics without criticizing the calculator
...

Fun word that: Never
Which is wrong
Making up stuff doesn't make that post you made ranting at me any more reasonable. It makes it less reasonable.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   807344  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.6597%  (945 / 929.57 expected, 15.43 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   55621444139429.57                           
Current Difficulty:   54150142369480                               
Next Difficulty:   between 54804433156408 and 55066049957084
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2083% and +1.6914%
Previous Retarget:   September 5, 2023 at 10:24 PM  (-2.6452%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   September 19, 2023 at 4:55 PM  (in 7d 7h 35m 8s)
Next Retarget (latest):   September 19, 2023 at 6:28 PM  (in 7d 9h 8m 2s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 30m 52s and 13d 20h 3m 45s

and in under 200 blocks we switched from 5.62 behind to  15.43 ahead

a 21 block overage in 172 blocks

so 172/151 = that is 13.9% over norm. some is more gear and some is variance

looking for next trend is exciting.

If I opened the contest this time and not in 2 weeks it would be hard to pick the winner as I would likely end picking time at 1000 blocks and people picking see the trend upwards The may think the 13.9% for the last 172 blocks will continue but at 9% not 13.9. So we are half in> hmmm 1.65 + 9 = 10.65/2 = +5.325%

my guess is +5.325%

kano will rip the predictions stompix will shout back and it will come in at some number no one picks or better yet stompix picks it and says snagggg to kano. We can have some fun for a change.

[stompix]

and it will come in at some number no one picks or better yet stompix picks it

If that happens cancel all your travel plans as all airplanes will be grounded cause of the 1 billion pigs flying around, I know my predictions are 10 times worse than tossing a coin so when it finally happens it for sure will come with something else enough to offset my joy in it.

Latest Block:   807605  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.1010%  (1206 / 1192.87 expected, 13.13 ahead)
Previous Retarget:   September 6, 2023 at 5:24 AM  (-2.6452%)

It's hovering around 100% pace, went up a bit then down then last 24h had 151 blocks but still lower overall than 14th, I see on the map the whole of Texas is going below 32C so who knows how much of that paused hashrate will come back online. Probably by the start of October when no heatwaves would be able to affect any of the major players and it's not cold enough for heating we will see the whole numbers, but I doubt there will be such a big difference.