2023 Diff thread now opened.

[alh]

I'll take #3 if possible.

03) -3.99 to - 3.50   alh

[1714612837]

1714612837

[1714612837]

1714612837

[philipma1957]

Please I want to take #04)

got you baby shoes 👞

six left 24 taken

we are at block 920 we have some spots left


01) -4.99 to - 4.50 - kano
02) -4.49 to - 4.00
03) -3.99 to - 3.50 - alh
04) -3.49 to - 3.00 - Baby Shoes
05) -2.99 to - 2.50 - Learn Bitcoin
06) -2.49 to - 2.00 - NeuroticFish
07) -1.99 to - 1.50 - SamReomo {note I have an error here} - AlcoHoDL was first
08 ) -1.49 to -1.00 - SamReomo moved you to nearest pick
09) -0.99 to  -0.50 - Warfare
10) -0.49 to  -0.00 - stompix
11) 0.01 to   0.50% put your name next to your pick. philipma1957
12) 0.51 to   1.00% - mikeywith
13) 1.01 to   1.50% - sirazimuth
14) 1.51 to   2.00%  - MagicByt3
15) 2.01 to   2.50% - Watche
16) 2.51 to   3.00% - joker_josue
17) 3.01 to   3.50% - vapourminer
18) 3.51 to   4.00% - Hueristic
19) 4.01 to   4.50% - jojo69
20) 4.51 to   5.00% - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
21) 5.01 to   5.50% - Gachapin
22) 5.51 to   6.00% - d_eddie
23) 6.01 to   6.50% - Greyhats
24) 6.51 to   7.00% - GazetaBitcoin
25) 7.01 to   7.50% - LFC_Bitcoin
26) 7.51 to   8.00% - DyingSoul
27) 8.01 to   8.50%
28) 8.51 to   9.00%
29) 9.01 to   9.50%
30) 9.51 to 10.00%

2)


27
28
29
30

got you alh

5 picks left

[Biffa]

I'll take #2 please mate

[stompix]

Hihi, I'm not going to say who's the favorite because he knows how much I ..fudge stuff 

But here is the data for the last 5 days in 24h intervals at this moment:
1)  149
2)  139
3)  163
4)  136
5)  142

The pace is just a bit positive and with the tiny backlog we have right now

Latest Block:   809417  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.7768%  (1002 / 1014.41 expected, 12.41 behind)

Probably it's going to be one small correction upwards!
Texas is (according to the news) done with the heatwave, guess not much more can come from that, so just the usual deployment from now.

Seeing how Phil added even 10% as a pick, would that be even possible, and not for one adjustment but for two combined right now?
We're looking at almost round 6 cents per th at this BTCprice, such a jump would get us below 5.5, the first gen of pros are already losing money at 8 cents kwh, losing more 9% in income  would drown even the 110 and 122 versions.

[philipma1957]

Please I want to take #04)

got you baby shoes 👞

six left 24 taken

we are at block 920 we have some spots left


01) -4.99 to - 4.50 - kano
02) -4.49 to - 4.00 - Biffa
03) -3.99 to - 3.50 - alh
04) -3.49 to - 3.00 - Baby Shoes
05) -2.99 to - 2.50 - Learn Bitcoin
06) -2.49 to - 2.00 - NeuroticFish
07) -1.99 to - 1.50 - SamReomo {note I have an error here} - AlcoHoDL was first
08 ) -1.49 to -1.00 - SamReomo moved you to nearest pick
09) -0.99 to  -0.50 - Warfare
10) -0.49 to  -0.00 - stompix
11) 0.01 to   0.50% put your name next to your pick. philipma1957
12) 0.51 to   1.00% - mikeywith
13) 1.01 to   1.50% - sirazimuth
14) 1.51 to   2.00%  - MagicByt3
15) 2.01 to   2.50% - Watche
16) 2.51 to   3.00% - joker_josue
17) 3.01 to   3.50% - vapourminer
18) 3.51 to   4.00% - Hueristic
19) 4.01 to   4.50% - jojo69
20) 4.51 to   5.00% - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
21) 5.01 to   5.50% - Gachapin
22) 5.51 to   6.00% - d_eddie
23) 6.01 to   6.50% - Greyhats
24) 6.51 to   7.00% - GazetaBitcoin
25) 7.01 to   7.50% - LFC_Bitcoin
26) 7.51 to   8.00% - DyingSoul
27) 8.01 to   8.50%
28) 8.51 to   9.00%
29) 9.01 to   9.50%
30) 9.51 to 10.00%




27
28
29
30

got you alh

5 picks left

looks to me like 1 to 26 are picked.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   809452  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.1792%  (1037 / 1056.23 expected, 19.23 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   54150142369480                              
Current Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                            
Next Difficulty:   between 56121083160929 and 56353459050271
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.7486% and -1.3418%
Previous Retarget:   September 19, 2023 at 4:59 AM  (+5.4842%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 3, 2023 at 9:44 AM  (in 6d 20h 43m 23s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 3, 2023 at 11:13 AM  (in 6d 22h 11m 33s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 45m 42s and 14d 6h 13m 53s

we are closed for the picks

right now -1.8208% which is 7) AlcoHodl

is in the lead

but a week to go

Picks closed

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   809722  (14 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.5315%  (1307 / 1313.15 expected, 6.15 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   54150142369480                              
Current Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                            
Next Difficulty:   between 56885883532764 and 56914719993776
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4096% and -0.3592%
Previous Retarget:   September 19, 2023 at 4:59 AM  (+5.4842%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 6:22 AM  (in 4d 22h 31m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 6:34 AM  (in 4d 22h 43m 22s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 23m 9s and 14d 1h 34m 54s

we are at -0.4685%

If we were to stop now stompix would win

1307 blocks down and 809 blocks to go

[mikeywith]

we are at -0.4685%

If we were to stop now stompix would win

1307 blocks down and 809 blocks to go

Amazing how the difficulty pace changes too fast

we are now at 100.5497% with roughly 4.5 days ahead, judging by how fast/slow the pace has been moving I think the following picks have the highest chance of winning

Code:

14) 1.51 to   2.00%  - MagicByt3
15) 2.01 to   2.50% - Watche
16) 2.51 to   3.00% - joker_josue
17) 3.01 to   3.50% - vapourminer

I know this is a fun game and you wouldn't want to have to deal with changes, but I think adding the ability to trade your pick with another person would be fun, for an example, MagicByt3 would request an exchange with joker_josue and if accepted they switch places, something like Monty Hall if you guys have ever watched it.

[philipma1957]

we are at -0.4685%

If we were to stop now stompix would win

1307 blocks down and 809 blocks to go

Amazing how the difficulty pace changes too fast

we are now at 100.5497% with roughly 4.5 days ahead, judging by how fast/slow the pace has been moving I think the following picks have the highest chance of winning

Code:

14) 1.51 to   2.00%  - MagicByt3
15) 2.01 to   2.50% - Watche
16) 2.51 to   3.00% - joker_josue
17) 3.01 to   3.50% - vapourminer

I know this is a fun game and you wouldn't want to have to deal with changes, but I think adding the ability to trade your pick with another person would be fun, for an example, MagicByt3 would request an exchange with joker_josue and if accepted they switch places, something like Monty Hall if you guys have ever watched it.

Mmm "Let's make a deal"

Let me think about a way to work that.

[joker_josue]

I know this is a fun game and you wouldn't want to have to deal with changes, but I think adding the ability to trade your pick with another person would be fun, for an example, MagicByt3 would request an exchange with joker_josue and if accepted they switch places, something like Monty Hall if you guys have ever watched it.

Without wanting to criticize the idea, it could actually be funny.
What would be the objective of someone who is close to winning, agreeing to exchange places with another user?

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   809812  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.6069%  (1397 / 1402.51 expected, 5.51 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   54150142369480                               
Current Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                           
Next Difficulty:   between 56926847388070 and 56944989158220
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3379% and -0.3062%
Previous Retarget:   September 19, 2023 at 4:59 AM  (+5.4842%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 6:11 AM  (in 4d 7h 26m 55s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 6:18 AM  (in 4d 7h 34m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 12m 3s and 14d 1h 19m 33s

well  if I allowed switching why would a guy with a shot

say +1.01 to 1.50%

switch with say kano who is -4.51 to -5.00%

only if he was offered coin to hedge.

that might work is the prize was big but at the moment 0.001 btc is not worth paying to get a closer number.

I have to think is there is a use case to allow trades

[mikeywith]

Without wanting to criticize the idea, it could actually be funny.
What would be the objective of someone who is close to winning, agreeing to exchange places with another user?

The thing is, you don't know who is winning and/or who is losing until it's over or maybe a few hours before the epoch ends at best, as it stands right now the pace is 100.0831%  which means if everything stays the same, Phill is going to win, at this point and given that there are 4 days or so left, Phill may think that the pace will continue to climb, and he might want to switch picks with me, I, on the other hand, may think that the pace is going to stay still and thus believe that Phil's chances are better than mine so I agree to switch.

To give you a real-life example, I am willing to exchange seats with sirazimuth since I think the pace will go slightly above my pick by the end of epoch, I am now closer to winning than sirazimuth, so he may see this as a good exchange and agrees to switch places.

[joker_josue]

The thing is, you don't know who is winning and/or who is losing until it's over or maybe a few hours before the epoch ends at best, as it stands right now the pace is 100.0831%  which means if everything stays the same, Phill is going to win, at this point and given that there are 4 days or so left, Phill may think that the pace will continue to climb, and he might want to switch picks with me, I, on the other hand, may think that the pace is going to stay still and thus believe that Phil's chances are better than mine so I agree to switch.

To give you a real-life example, I am willing to exchange seats with sirazimuth since I think the pace will go slightly above my pick by the end of epoch, I am now closer to winning than sirazimuth, so he may see this as a good exchange and agrees to switch places.

Enlightened! Yes, that could make things funnier. Movements based on the perspective that each person begins to have in view of events.

However, a deadline for exchanges had to be established.

[mikeywith]

However, a deadline for exchanges had to be established.

Yes most certainly a deadline is a must,  and to avoid time zones differences we could use block numbers as a deadline, so for example, my offer above expires with block 1600 of the current epoch.

This will be useless at epoch start but towards the end it's fun.

 

[philipma1957]

Well not this contest, but I will be doing another contest and I will consider a trading period say blocks 1700 to 1800.

At the moment

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   809873  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.6919%  (1458 / 1462.51 expected, 4.51 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   54150142369480                               
Current Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                           
Next Difficulty:   between 56974112728289 and 56985253024046
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.2552% and -0.2357%
Previous Retarget:   September 19, 2023 at 4:59 AM  (+5.4842%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 5:56 AM  (in 3d 21h 12m 28s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 6:01 AM  (in 3d 21h 17m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 57m 32s and 14d 1h 2m 18s


So  that is about -0.3081% making stompix our current leader

01) -4.99 to - 4.50 - kano
02) -4.49 to - 4.00 - Biffa
03) -3.99 to - 3.50 - alh
04) -3.49 to - 3.00 - Baby Shoes
05) -2.99 to - 2.50 - Learn Bitcoin
06) -2.49 to - 2.00 - NeuroticFish
07) -1.99 to - 1.50 - SamReomo {note I have an error here} - AlcoHoDL was first
08 ) -1.49 to -1.00 - SamReomo moved you to nearest pick
09) -0.99 to  -0.50 - Warfare
10) -0.49 to  -0.00 - stompix
11) 0.01 to   0.50% put your name next to your pick. philipma1957
12) 0.51 to   1.00% - mikeywith
13) 1.01 to   1.50% - sirazimuth
14) 1.51 to   2.00%  - MagicByt3
15) 2.01 to   2.50% - Watche
16) 2.51 to   3.00% - joker_josue
17) 3.01 to   3.50% - vapourminer
18) 3.51 to   4.00% - Hueristic
19) 4.01 to   4.50% - jojo69
20) 4.51 to   5.00% - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
21) 5.01 to   5.50% - Gachapin
22) 5.51 to   6.00% - d_eddie
23) 6.01 to   6.50% - Greyhats
24) 6.51 to   7.00% - GazetaBitcoin
25) 7.01 to   7.50% - LFC_Bitcoin
26) 7.51 to   8.00% - DyingSoul
27) 8.01 to   8.50%
28) 8.51 to   9.00%
29) 9.01 to   9.50%
30) 9.51 to 10.00%



It does look like we will have a winner in the -1 to + 3  range

say 08 ) to 16) picks

I need to think how hard it will be for me to do.

This jump is a no as I still have yet to finish my taxes they are due Oct 15 and they are fucking long and hard to do.

Next jump I may take  a break 

Jump after that I will likely run a contest.

[joker_josue]

I need to think how hard it will be for me to do.

This jump is a no as I still have yet to finish my taxes they are due Oct 15 and they are fucking long and hard to do.

Next jump I may take  a break 

Jump after that I will likely run a contest.

If you need any help, say so.
^#ad You can always request my spreadsheet automation services. 

[mikeywith]

I need to think how hard it will be for me to do.

I believe since this is a "friendly contest" it could be done on an individual basis, in other words, if I request to switch numbers with joker_josue and he agrees to it, if I win, I give you his BTC address, if he wins, he gives you my BTC address, I believe everyone on the list could be trusted with a prize of 0.001 BTC, there is no need to put more work on your shoulders.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   810066  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.2678%  (1651 / 1663.18 expected, 12.18 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   54150142369480                              
Current Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                            
Next Difficulty:   between 56728135639289 and 56740891410495
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.6858% and -0.6635%
Previous Retarget:   September 19, 2023 at 4:59 AM  (+5.4842%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 7:23 AM  (in 2d 13h 12m 2s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 7:27 AM  (in 2d 13h 16m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 23m 49s and 14d 2h 28m 41s

Stompix

lost his lead

with  warfare  closing past him into the lead.

[mikeywith]

[
Stompix

lost his lead

Stompix has a world record of wrong difficulty adjustment predictions  , i hope he makes up for that and win this time.

The pace is almost static now and has been for the past a few days, so ya, all picks outside of 98% to 102% are almost guaranteed to not win.

[stompix]

Stompix has a world record of wrong difficulty adjustment predictions  ,

And for eons to come his achievements will be looked at in awe by mortals and gods alike, amazed by the inaccuracy and trembling in fear of his army of flying pigs that will spell the doom of Bitcoin mining when his numbers finally hit the mark!

I'm more surprised that I'm so close by but the actual reason is not my "accuracy" and more the fact that I've chosen something in the middle, now that I look back the thing does make a bit of sense after a high build-up one as large was nearly impossible, a crash would have happened only if something else would have triggered it like weather or political situation in a country so with those narrowing down it would have been around -2.5 /+2.5. Adding a bad start-up and, hmm...I guess it wasn't as bad though as I thought when I posted.

Pace in last days was 139, 146 and again 146 so, without screwing around with the other's luck I believe in a positive adjustment, were just 6 blocks of the pace, and luck can turn this around in a matter of hours not days.

Latest Block:   810144  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.6112%  (1729 / 1735.75 expected, 6.75 behind)

Anyhow, funny map from CNBC (with foundry sources)
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/where-are-bitcoin-miners-in-2023-texas.html

It again shows how taking the energy flat rate into consideration makes no sense, New York is ranked at 22.37 ¢/kWh and still ranks the third state in the country by hash rate, normally at that price everyone would be bankrupt.

[mikeywith]

And for eons to come his achievements will be looked at in awe by mortals and gods alike, amazed by the inaccuracy and trembling in fear of his army of flying pigs that will spell the doom of Bitcoin mining when his numbers finally hit the mark!

Lol, yup you are closest person to winning this as it stands right now, Warefare also has a pretty good chance of winning, 1800 blocks down, 216 to go, what happens next will have a very small affect on the adjustment, so ya, you could really do it and win this time lol.

I'm more surprised that I'm so close by but the actual reason is not my "accuracy" and more the fact that I've chosen something in the middle, now that I look back the thing does make a bit of sense after a high build-up one as large was nearly impossible, a crash would have happened only if something else would have triggered it like weather or political situation in a country so with those narrowing down it would have been around -2.5 /+2.5. Adding a bad start-up and, hmm...I guess it wasn't as bad though as I thought when I posted.

[/quote]

I used the same logic, with the exception that I took into account that the vast majority of adjustments end up being positive, so I wanted to bet on the smallest positive figure possible which is already taken by Phill, so I went to the next pick, while this is a fun a game and mostly random, some logic does help, statstcailly speaking, all the picks in the negative are less likely to win, could it happen in the next epoch as well? maybe, is it more likely, no.