2023 Diff thread now opened.

[philipma1957]

race is tight. right near zero.
 -0.7368% would win with 194 blocks left that would be Warfare

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   810237  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.2632%  (1822 / 1835.52 expected, 13.52 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   54150142369480                              
Current Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                            
Next Difficulty:   between 56722995830265 and 56726645693152
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.6948% and -0.6884%
Previous Retarget:   September 19, 2023 at 4:59 AM  (+5.4842%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 7:27 AM  (in 1d 8h 33m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 7:28 AM  (in 1d 8h 34m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 28m 15s and 14d 2h 29m 38s

Looks like -2 to + 2 will have a winner.

quite a tight finish


01) -4.99 to - 4.50 - kano
02) -4.49 to - 4.00 - Biffa
03) -3.99 to - 3.50 - alh
04) -3.49 to - 3.00 - Baby Shoes
05) -2.99 to - 2.50 - Learn Bitcoin
06) -2.49 to - 2.00 - NeuroticFish
07) -1.99 to - 1.50 - SamReomo {note I have an error here} - AlcoHoDL was first
08 ) -1.49 to -1.00 - SamReomo moved you to nearest pick
09) -0.99 to  -0.50 - Warfare
10) -0.49 to  -0.00 - stompix
11) 0.01 to   0.50% put your name next to your pick. philipma1957
12) 0.51 to   1.00% - mikeywith
13) 1.01 to   1.50% - sirazimuth
14) 1.51 to   2.00%  - MagicByt3
15) 2.01 to   2.50% - Watche
16) 2.51 to   3.00% - joker_josue
17) 3.01 to   3.50% - vapourminer
18) 3.51 to   4.00% - Hueristic
19) 4.01 to   4.50% - jojo69
20) 4.51 to   5.00% - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
21) 5.01 to   5.50% - Gachapin
22) 5.51 to   6.00% - d_eddie
23) 6.01 to   6.50% - Greyhats
24) 6.51 to   7.00% - GazetaBitcoin
25) 7.01 to   7.50% - LFC_Bitcoin
26) 7.51 to   8.00% - DyingSoul
27) 8.01 to   8.50%
28) 8.51 to   9.00%
29) 9.01 to   9.50%
30) 9.51 to 10.00%


update stompix has battled back to take the lead. we are at block 1907 and -0.15%

109 blocks left.

looks like spots 9-14 are the contenders.

block 1964 update stompix still leading with philipma1957 a tough game second.

-0.11%. philipma1957 needs to pop a few quick blocks to take over the lead.


At block 1989 I am in the lead.

we are at +0.1665%

will I hold it and if I do it goes to talk img developer.

[1714291571]

1714291571

[1714291571]

1714291571

[1714291571]

1714291571

[1714291571]

1714291571

[1714291571]

1714291571

[1714291571]

1714291571

[kano]

delta=0.35% new=57321508229258.0 (57.3T)

[mikeywith]

Congratulations to Phill, it was +0.35%,  stompix was so close but pace picked up really fast in the last a few blocks.

Thanks phill for the fun, looking forward to a new round.

[philipma1957]

Congratulations to Phill, it was +0.35%,  stompix was so close but pace picked up really fast in the last a few blocks.

Thanks phill for the fun, looking forward to a new round.

I will donate it to talk img later today.

I will take a break this jump.

[vapourminer]

Congratulations to Phill, it was +0.35%,  stompix was so close but pace picked up really fast in the last a few blocks.

Thanks phill for the fun, looking forward to a new round.

I will donate it to talk img later today.

I will take a break this jump.

thanks phil and congrats

always enjoyed these contests, hope to see more

[sirazimuth]

Congratulations to Phill, it was +0.35%,  stompix was so close but pace picked up really fast in the last a few blocks.

Thanks phill for the fun, looking forward to a new round.

I will donate it to talk img later today.

I will take a break this jump.

Thanx phil. Fun stuff.
I figured even tho my comprehension of all these mining stats is all way above my aging head (even when I myself was mining, lol)
.... hell, I'll just grab the closest available slot to phil. That way there I know I gotta shot!

[philipma1957]

over the years I ran a ton of them but this is my first win ever. I will be sending


joker_josue the 0.001 btc along with my regular 0.001 that I give him monthly


Most likely I will do another on oct 17-19 when ever start time happens.


- Donations: Anyone wishing to support this project can make their bitcoin donations to the address: bc1qhwnncpdd8gfzqwjkk9n052wf7g9mvks3xaa7qa

coins are sent

[joker_josue]

Most likely I will do another on oct 17-19 when ever start time happens.

Congratulations for the victory! It's always worth the wait, you might get it right.

You know if you need help organizing, just say so! 

[philipma1957]

Most likely I will do another on oct 17-19 when ever start time happens.

Congratulations for the victory! It's always worth the wait, you might get it right.

You know if you need help organizing, just say so! 

I will take a break this jump.

Start it again same 0.001 prize unless btc moons like a motherfucker to 100,000 then prize would be capped at  $100 worth of btc. Its a problem we can all wish for.

I may structure it a bit differently.

[stompix]

Oh, I just barely managed to keep my record intact, I need to leave common sense out of this next time, it's becoming dangerous 
Congratulations phil, and now that the competition is over, between us two, those ~3-4 exa that went online in the last days, you turned on those miners just to win, right? 

Latest Block:   810583  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.2575%  (152 / 140.41 expected, 11.59 ahead)

Pace is pretty high for the first day, totally opposite from the last period when we started with -5% for nearly three, so normally, without taking luck and randomness into account this would mean mining gear build-up lately.
Wonder if Bitmain is "testing" their S21

[philipma1957]

we slowed up a lot

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   810649  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.7597%  (218 / 218.53 expected, 0.53 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                            
Current Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                            
Next Difficulty:   between 57249716734322 and 57306806717669
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.1252% and -0.0256%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 3:56 AM  (+0.3530%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 17, 2023 at 4:06 AM  (in 12d 11h 44m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 17, 2023 at 4:44 AM  (in 12d 12h 23m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 9m 55s and 14d 0h 48m 33s


still slow

Latest Block:   810835  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.5879%  (404 / 405.67 expected, 1.67 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                            
Current Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                            
Next Difficulty:   between 57120750001203 and 57248945345977
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3502% and -0.1266%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 3:56 AM  (+0.3530%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 17, 2023 at 4:26 AM  (in 11d 4h 53m 21s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 17, 2023 at 5:19 AM  (in 11d 5h 46m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 30m 4s and 14d 1h 23m 24s



Latest Block:   811035  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.4374%  (604 / 578.34 expected, 25.66 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                            
Current Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                            
Next Difficulty:   between 58602425856588 and 59891143699120
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.2346% and +4.4828%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 3:56 AM  (+0.3530%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 16, 2023 at 1:39 PM  (in 9d 9h 20m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 16, 2023 at 8:39 PM  (in 9d 16h 20m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 43m 25s and 13d 16h 43m 37s





we are looking at an ATH for hash  ugh


Latest Block:   811298  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.5052%  (867 / 829.62 expected, 37.38 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                           
Current Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                           
Next Difficulty:   between 59051874812157 and 59922147034726
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.0187% and +4.5369%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 3:56 AM  (+0.3530%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 16, 2023 at 1:27 PM  (in 7d 15h 14m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 16, 2023 at 6:09 PM  (in 7d 19h 56m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 30m 54s and 13d 14h 13m 12s

[mikeywith]

we slowed up a lot

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   810649  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.7597%  (218 / 218.53 expected, 0.53 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                            
Current Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                            
Next Difficulty:   between 57249716734322 and 57306806717669
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.1252% and -0.0256%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 3:56 AM  (+0.3530%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 17, 2023 at 4:06 AM  (in 12d 11h 44m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 17, 2023 at 4:44 AM  (in 12d 12h 23m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 9m 55s and 14d 0h 48m 33s

Well look at this jump

Latest Block:   811465  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   107.0277%  (1034 / 966.11 expected, 67.89 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                           
Current Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                           
Next Difficulty:   between 60355463216404 and 61365853382387
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.2929% and +7.0555%
Previous Retarget:   October 3, 2023 at 10:56 AM  (+0.3530%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 12:52 PM  (in 6d 8h 55m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 6:06 PM  (in 6d 14h 9m 16s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 1h 56m 15s and 13d 7h 10m 20s

This is climbing really fast, of course it has to do this after an epoch adjustment of nearly nothing, the 2-3% increase has become the bare minimum for these spikes, and I don't see it slowing down until the halving hits, I also noticed that Antpool hashrate increased in the past couple months, contrary to what I believed would be the case since they started imposing KYC now, so it can't be KYC = more clients, I am guessing Bitmain are heavily mining BTC with their new gears or the hydros which they failed to sell.

[philipma1957]

yeah its a nice jump up 5% is over 20eh which is a lot of hash.

[stompix]

I am guessing Bitmain are heavily mining BTC with their new gears or the hydros which they failed to sell.

Or are mining with the gear they were supposed to build now and ship first thing in January? 
And here I missed my chance of saying no, that's just luck it will drop like a stone:

Latest Block:   811715  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   107.8295%  (1284 / 1190.77 expected, 93.23 ahead)

I lost count, of the previous versions, so assuming brand new gear, we're at 400Exa 7% is 28Exa, the S21 is 200Th, so 140k of those?
Coupon means $600 million and 490MW, let's put a 100% profit margin so $300 million worth of gear?

Not going to do the math for the S19 as I literally have no idea what model and what orders are still unfulfilled, I used to have a sheet on the orders based on PR for the publicly traded companies but I can no longer find the damn thing, besides, it's probably outdated and useless anyhow.
Anyhow, heading to under 200sat/th, so relaxing to be outside of the game with just 300th left heating the floor faaaar away!

[philipma1957]

I am guessing Bitmain are heavily mining BTC with their new gears or the hydros which they failed to sell.

Or are mining with the gear they were supposed to build now and ship first thing in January?  
And here I missed my chance of saying no, that's just luck it will drop like a stone:

Latest Block:   811715  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   107.8295%  (1284 / 1190.77 expected, 93.23 ahead)

I lost count, of the previous versions, so assuming brand new gear, we're at 400Exa 7% is 28Exa, the S21 is 200Th, so 140k of those?
Coupon means $600 million and 490MW, let's put a 100% profit margin so $300 million worth of gear?

Not going to do the math for the S19 as I literally have no idea what model and what orders are still unfulfilled, I used to have a sheet on the orders based on PR for the publicly traded companies but I can no longer find the damn thing, besides, it's probably outdated and useless anyhow.
Anyhow, heading to under 200sat/th, so relaxing to be outside of the game with just 300th left heating the floor faaaar away!

well here we are  pushing a 13 day jump vs a 14 day jump or 7%

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   811784  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.1122%  (1353 / 1263.16 expected, 89.84 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   57119871304635.31                            
Current Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                            
Next Difficulty:   between 60940383765728 and 61410554511137
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.3133% and +7.1335%
Previous Retarget:   October 3, 2023 at 3:56 AM  (+0.3530%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 5:37 AM  (in 4d 7h 9m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 8:02 AM  (in 4d 9h 34m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 1h 41m 23s and 13d 4h 6m 9s

7 % is 28eh +


14 x 200 = 2,800th.   ....   or 2.8ph
140 x 200 = 28,000th  .... or 28ph
1400 x 200 = 280,000th.. or 280ph
14,000 x 200 = 2,800,000th or 2800ph that is 2.8eh
140,000 x 200 = 28,000,000th or 28000ph that is 28eh

140,000 x 3700 = $518,000,000 is a lot to invest in gear.

Someone check this math I am a bit tired I feel like I did this wrong

stompix at 300,000,000 could be right due to discount numbers.

[mikeywith]

Better keep things in M unit instead of Exahash so 7% of the current  435M th is 30M that translates to roughly 150,000 miners that do 200th, i highly doubt that this is the case, we will drop below 5% in a frw days, 7% is unrealistic IMO.

[stompix]

For a moment I thought MW, probably that's a way too, how many reactors can you bring online in 14 days after all?

Anyhow, the forum was down, I lost my thoughts since then, really bad coffee, the math is simply not with me right now but
105% is ~2116 blocks, we need roughly 100 blocks right now we're here:

Latest Block:   811836  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   107.4505%  (1405 / 1307.58 expected, 97.42 ahead)

so for the next 4 days, we need a pace of less than 0.70% of the previous.
Assuming it is caused by luck we need a bit of unluck too but the block time for the last days doesn't look like something out of the ordinary that pushed it, in reverse order in24h interval time block time is 9, 8.8, 9.73, 8.4, 9, 10.2, 10.9, 8.7

At least it's helping that damn mempool stay low

Oh and btw, Antpool is at 33% for the last 24h, 27% for 1 week and 24% for 1 month, so...we can start pointing fingers.

[mikeywith]

For a moment I thought MW, probably that's a way too, how many reactors can you bring online in 14 days after all?

Anyhow, the forum was down, I lost my thoughts since then, really bad coffee, the math is simply not with me right now but
105% is ~2116 blocks, we need roughly 100 blocks right now we're here:

Latest Block:   811836  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   107.4505%  (1405 / 1307.58 expected, 97.42 ahead)

so for the next 4 days, we need a pace of less than 0.70% of the previous.
Assuming it is caused by luck we need a bit of unluck too but the block time for the last days doesn't look like something out of the ordinary that pushed it, in reverse order in24h interval time block time is 9, 8.8, 9.73, 8.4, 9, 10.2, 10.9, 8.7

At least it's helping that damn mempool stay low

Oh and btw, Antpool is at 33% for the last 24h, 27% for 1 week and 24% for 1 month, so...we can start pointing fingers.

Hard to do any guess work in regards to power consumption, you just can't tell what models they deploy, is it a fresh instlation or replacing S17s / S19 / M20s / M30s with S19 xp, S21, M50s or M60s, for all we know we could generate 30EH without adding a single unit of power.

But ya, pace is slwoing down a little, maybe not below 5% as I expected, hopefully 6% of slightly below, one thing we know for sure, anyone who is above 6 cents and not using sub 20w/th is already in deep shit.

[philipma1957]

For a moment I thought MW, probably that's a way too, how many reactors can you bring online in 14 days after all?

Anyhow, the forum was down, I lost my thoughts since then, really bad coffee, the math is simply not with me right now but
105% is ~2116 blocks, we need roughly 100 blocks right now we're here:

Latest Block:   811836  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   107.4505%  (1405 / 1307.58 expected, 97.42 ahead)

so for the next 4 days, we need a pace of less than 0.70% of the previous.
Assuming it is caused by luck we need a bit of unluck too but the block time for the last days doesn't look like something out of the ordinary that pushed it, in reverse order in24h interval time block time is 9, 8.8, 9.73, 8.4, 9, 10.2, 10.9, 8.7

At least it's helping that damn mempool stay low

Oh and btw, Antpool is at 33% for the last 24h, 27% for 1 week and 24% for 1 month, so...we can start pointing fingers.

Hard to do any guess work in regards to power consumption, you just can't tell what models they deploy, is it a fresh instlation or replacing S17s / S19 / M20s / M30s with S19 xp, S21, M50s or M60s, for all we know we could generate 30EH without adding a single unit of power.

But ya, pace is slwoing down a little, maybe not below 5% as I expected, hopefully 6% of slightly below, one thing we know for sure, anyone who is above 6 cents and not using sub 20w/th is already in deep shit.

Weather cooled a lot. I cant over heat my mine no matter how high I clock gear.

So basically I am running 15% higher hash than august 1.

the only gear left on low is my remaining  s17s which is to make them efficient as they are close to 30 watts set to low.

[stompix]

one thing we know for sure, anyone who is above 6 cents and not using sub 20w/th is already in deep shit.

And even at 6 cents if you're running on loaned money and your other expenditures are also making a serious dent.

Latest Block:   812068  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   106.7512%  (1637 / 1533.47 expected, 103.53 ahead)

So the scenario for slowing down to 5% didn't quit ematerialize, 2 days left and we need to go even more down compared to the previous period, blockchair said 141 blocks last 24 so we need two days of it.

I find it a bit amusing that even now at 410m TH (to use the new units) we're praying on a rise of 5 and not 7, back in 2021 I was so bullish on the hashrate growing but I wouldn't have imagined a 6% jump on top of such a large pile. 200 days till halving, Bitmain maybe having a shitload of stocks of unsold gear, price is not being impressed by anything, so does this mean that if things go like this everyone over 4c is next down the hole?

Serious question, assuming this happens and I'm sure in this case mining gear prices are going to tumble to scrap price, does any of you plan on buying and expanding? Cause you know, when there is blood on the street...

Weather cooled a lot. I cant over heat my mine no matter how high I clock gear.
So basically I am running 15% higher hash than august 1.

Hmm, let's assume this jump is about cooling, would it make sense at these prices to sacrifice efficiency for small gains? And where is that whole extra power coming from? Cause assuming most of the US miners are on Foundry , then Texas is not the one to blame for the spike.
Of course, I'm asking this in general not your case, I'm sure those guys are making a completely different accounting sheet.

More and more it looks like mining is truly dead for the small guy!

-----------------------------------------------------------
LE , updating this to not make a new post, it's the 15th

Latest Block:   812308  (18 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   107.1815%  (1877 / 1751.24 expected, 125.76 ahead)

with less than one day left, even wiht a last hour change it seems it's going to be way closer to 7% than to 6%