2023 Diff thread now opened.

[stompix]

Thanks again Phil for this fun contest, I am very intrested in seeing stompix's pick.

Nothing extraordinary here  

14) +0.66 to +0.98% - Stompix

Of course, the price jumped and screwed around with my previous scenario, ( "I'm going to pick something just above zero") that's a 10% in revenue in 7 days but I still don't believe in a higher jump than this being possible, not after the 6.4% , I know all the arguments against my pick and logic, I agree with them but I simply don't want to acknowledge them!

I'm turning bearish on this, when I see 6 cents per TH/s per day and Bitmain asking $35 for TH/s with the halving in less than 200 days things stop making sense.

[1714289672]

1714289672

[1714289672]

1714289672

[1714289672]

1714289672

[joker_josue]

Of course, the price jumped screwed around with my previous scenario, ( "I'm going to pick something just above zero") that's a 10% in revenue in 7 days but I still don't believe in a higher jump than this being possible, not after the 6.4% , I know all the arguments against my pick and logic, I agree with them but I simply don't want to acknowledge them!

Well, if it closes now, it was a little above 0, the number 16 won. 

But, I'm not at all knowledgeable in this matter, I haven't yet explored this difficulty variation vs the general market.

[philipma1957]

picks will start at block 700 and end at block 1000

01)  -3.43 to -3.11%
02)  -3.10 to -2.88%
03)  -2.87 to -2.55%
04)  -2.54 to -2.22%
05)  -2.21 to -1.99%
06)  -1.98 to -1.66%
07)  -1.65 to -1.33%
08)  -1.32 to -1.00%
09)  -0.99 to -0.67%
10)  -0.66 to -0.34%
11)  -0.33 to -0.01% I will always be picking this one if I win it goes to Talkimg developer
12)   0.00 to +0.32%
13) +0.33 to +0.65% joker_josue
14) +0.66 to +0.98% Stompix
15) +0.99 to +1.31%  alh
16) +1.32 to +1.64%
17) +1.65 to +1.97% Warfare
18) +1.98 to +2.30% Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish
20) +2.64 to +2.96%
21) +2.97 to +3.29% Mikeywith
22) +3.30 to +3.62%
23) +3.63 to +3.95%
24) +3.96 to +4.28%
25) +4.29 to +4.61%
26) +4.62 to +4.94%
27) +4.95 to +5.27%
28) +5.28 to +5.60%
29) +5.61 to +5.93%
30) +5.94 to +6.26%
31) +6.27 to +6.59% GazetaBitcoin
32) +6.60 to +6.92% vapourminer has pledged to give to talkimg

keep the pick coming guys and girls

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   813218  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.8224%  (771 / 757.20 expected, 13.8 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                           
Current Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 61710375555801 and 62137002979444
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.1137% and +1.8127%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 7:33 AM  (+6.4708%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 30, 2023 at 1:32 AM  (in 8d 11h 47m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 30, 2023 at 3:50 AM  (in 8d 14h 4m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 17h 59m 11s and 13d 20h 16m 47s


pick 15 would be in the lead if we end now.

pick 13 would have the lead if we end at this moment.

yeah at the moment we are at


Latest Block:   813379  (11 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   101.6008%  (932 / 917.32 expected, 14.68 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                           
Current Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 61718576116201 and 62002803335599
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.1271% and +1.5928%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 7:33 AM  (+6.4708%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 30, 2023 at 2:15 AM  (in 7d 9h 49m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 30, 2023 at 3:47 AM  (in 7d 11h 21m 2s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 42m 22s and 13d 20h 14m 12s


1.6008% which rounds to %1.60%

[sirazimuth]

12)   0.00 to +0.32%

Thanx Phil!

[philipma1957]

picks will start at block 700 and end at block 1000

01)  -3.43 to -3.11%
02)  -3.10 to -2.88%
03)  -2.87 to -2.55%
04)  -2.54 to -2.22%
05)  -2.21 to -1.99%
06)  -1.98 to -1.66%
07)  -1.65 to -1.33%
08)  -1.32 to -1.00%
09)  -0.99 to -0.67%
10)  -0.66 to -0.34%
11)  -0.33 to -0.01% I will always be picking this one if I win it goes to Talkimg developer
12)   0.00 to +0.32% sirazimuth
13) +0.33 to +0.65% joker_josue
14) +0.66 to +0.98% Stompix
15) +0.99 to +1.31%  alh
16) +1.32 to +1.64%
17) +1.65 to +1.97% Warfare
18) +1.98 to +2.30% Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish
20) +2.64 to +2.96%
21) +2.97 to +3.29% Mikeywith
22) +3.30 to +3.62%
23) +3.63 to +3.95%
24) +3.96 to +4.28%
25) +4.29 to +4.61%
26) +4.62 to +4.94%
27) +4.95 to +5.27%
28) +5.28 to +5.60%
29) +5.61 to +5.93%
30) +5.94 to +6.26%
31) +6.27 to +6.59% GazetaBitcoin
32) +6.60 to +6.92% vapourminer has pledged to give to talkimg

keep the pick coming guys and girls

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   813218  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.8224%  (771 / 757.20 expected, 13.8 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                           
Current Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 61710375555801 and 62137002979444
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.1137% and +1.8127%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 7:33 AM  (+6.4708%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 30, 2023 at 1:32 AM  (in 8d 11h 47m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 30, 2023 at 3:50 AM  (in 8d 14h 4m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 17h 59m 11s and 13d 20h 16m 47s


pick 15 would be in the lead if we end now.

pick 13 would have the lead if we end at this moment.

yeah at the moment we are at


Latest Block:   813379  (11 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   101.6008%  (932 / 917.32 expected, 14.68 ahead)


Previous Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                           
Current Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 61718576116201 and 62002803335599
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.1271% and +1.5928%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 7:33 AM  (+6.4708%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 30, 2023 at 2:15 AM  (in 7d 9h 49m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 30, 2023 at 3:47 AM  (in 7d 11h 21m 2s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 42m 22s and 13d 20h 14m 12s


1.6008% which rounds to %1.60%

.


 got you sirazimuth

[philipma1957]

we are at block 1031 so picks are closed.  not as much interest in this as ½ the picks were not taken.


01)  -3.43 to -3.11%
02)  -3.10 to -2.88%
03)  -2.87 to -2.55%
04)  -2.54 to -2.22%
05)  -2.21 to -1.99%
06)  -1.98 to -1.66%
07)  -1.65 to -1.33%
08)  -1.32 to -1.00%
09)  -0.99 to -0.67%
10)  -0.66 to -0.34%
11)  -0.33 to -0.01% I will always be picking this one if I win it goes to Talkimg developer
12)   0.00 to +0.32% sirazimuth
13) +0.33 to +0.65% joker_josue
14) +0.66 to +0.98% Stompix
15) +0.99 to +1.31%  alh
16) +1.32 to +1.64%
17) +1.65 to +1.97% Warfare
18) +1.98 to +2.30% Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish
20) +2.64 to +2.96%
21) +2.97 to +3.29% Mikeywith
22) +3.30 to +3.62%
23) +3.63 to +3.95%
24) +3.96 to +4.28%
25) +4.29 to +4.61%
26) +4.62 to +4.94%
27) +4.95 to +5.27%
28) +5.28 to +5.60%
29) +5.61 to +5.93%
30) +5.94 to +6.26%
31) +6.27 to +6.59% GazetaBitcoin
32) +6.60 to +6.92% vapourminer has pledged to give to talkimg

[joker_josue]

we are at block 1031 so picks are closed.  not as much interest in this as ½ the picks were not taken.

Now you will have to wait about 6 days to see the final result. If the game ends now, n19 would win.

If the difficulty ends at a number that was not chosen, do you award the prize to the closest user or not?

[philipma1957]

we are at block 1031 so picks are closed.  not as much interest in this as ½ the picks were not taken.

Now you will have to wait about 6 days to see the final result. If the game ends now, n19 would win.

If the difficulty ends at a number that was not chosen, do you award the prize to the closest user or not?

If we have no winner I run another contest.  We are really empty on the picks . So likely there will not be a winner.

To be fair to those that picked on time I won’t let late picks or extend time.

I think I will change next contest. Start at block 800 end at block 1200.

@biffa I will pm you for next contest so you won’t miss it. but I will leave you out of this one.

[mikeywith]

I think I will change next contest. Start at block 800 end at block 1200.

Yes, I think the 300-block window is very small, especially if it's during the weekend if the pace is at nearly 100% then we talking 2 full days, pretty easy to miss, I follow difficulty closely every day and I almost missed the contest this time, so I'd imagine someone else who isn't as active in the mining board would most likely miss most of the contests given the short notice.

I think 4 days for the contest would be good, so anything about 600 blocks window would do, those who pick early will have the advantage of larger options, but those who pick later will have the vantage of picking something closer to the current pace, so it isn't all that unfair when you think about it.

Your game, your rules, just chiming in with thoughts to help make this contest more fun.

[philipma1957]

I think I will change next contest. Start at block 800 end at block 1200.

Yes, I think the 300-block window is very small, especially if it's during the weekend if the pace is at nearly 100% then we talking 2 full days, pretty easy to miss, I follow difficulty closely every day and I almost missed the contest this time, so I'd imagine someone else who isn't as active in the mining board would most likely miss most of the contests given the short notice.

I think 4 days for the contest would be good, so anything about 600 blocks window would do, those who pick early will have the advantage of larger options, but those who pick later will have the vantage of picking something closer to the current pace, so it isn't all that unfair when you think about it.

Your game, your rules, just chiming in with thoughts to help make this contest more fun.

   I think I will change it to 500-1100 that is close to five days to pick. should work better.

[stompix]

Current Pace:   102.4318%  (1499 / 1463.41 expected, 35.59 ahead)

3 days left, unless an asteroid hits Riot or Mara no chance for me to win this, so most likely a play between the 2% guys!

While this one will still be an average jump we need a ton of popcorn for the next two, the price jump is as I speak is 17% on the week and 29% on the 30 days interval, assuming again crazy investors who don't know a thing about the risks and just throw money at everything smelling of money prepare to see bitmain being sold-out!

Looking back  at the start of the year, I have a quote from Bitmain prices:

141T 3031.5W 21.5J/T  Price/Unit   $6,486 stock (btc at 24k)
vs now
141T 3031.5W 21.5J/T Price 4,653 $/Unit

Any chances of them jack up prices over $50/th?

[philipma1957]

Current Pace:   102.4318%  (1499 / 1463.41 expected, 35.59 ahead)

3 days left, unless an asteroid hits Riot or Mara no chance for me to win this, so most likely a play between the 2% guys!

While this one will still be an average jump we need a ton of popcorn for the next two, the price jump is as I speak is 17% on the week and 29% on the 30 days interval, assuming again crazy investors who don't know a thing about the risks and just throw money at everything smelling of money prepare to see bitmain being sold-out!

Looking back  at the start of the year, I have a quote from Bitmain prices:

141T 3031.5W 21.5J/T  Price/Unit   $6,486 stock (btc at 24k)
vs now
141T 3031.5W 21.5J/T Price 4,653 $/Unit

Any chances of them jack up prices over $50/th?

You can get used s19xp's for  2699

new ones for 3600

reliable usa sellers  still have them in stock.




as for the contest maybe we will get a winner.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   813986  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.5715%  (1539 / 1515.19 expected, 23.81 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   57321508229258.04                           
Current Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Next Difficulty:   between 61932504097671 and 61986822613255
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.4777% and +1.5667%
Previous Retarget:   October 16, 2023 at 7:33 AM  (+6.4708%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 2:21 AM  (in 3d 6h 16m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 2:39 AM  (in 3d 6h 33m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 48m 5s and 13d 19h 5m 33s

01)  -3.43 to -3.11%
02)  -3.10 to -2.88%
03)  -2.87 to -2.55%
04)  -2.54 to -2.22%
05)  -2.21 to -1.99%
06)  -1.98 to -1.66%
07)  -1.65 to -1.33%
08)  -1.32 to -1.00%
09)  -0.99 to -0.67%
10)  -0.66 to -0.34%
11)  -0.33 to -0.01% I will always be picking this one if I win it goes to Talkimg developer
12)   0.00 to +0.32% sirazimuth
13) +0.33 to +0.65% joker_josue
14) +0.66 to +0.98% Stompix
15) +0.99 to +1.31%  alh
16) +1.32 to +1.64%
17) +1.65 to +1.97% Warfare
18) +1.98 to +2.30% Iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
19) +2.31 to +2.63% NeuroticFish
20) +2.64 to +2.96%
21) +2.97 to +3.29% Mikeywith
22) +3.30 to +3.62%
23) +3.63 to +3.95%
24) +3.96 to +4.28%
25) +4.29 to +4.61%
26) +4.62 to +4.94%
27) +4.95 to +5.27%
28) +5.28 to +5.60%
29) +5.61 to +5.93%
30) +5.94 to +6.26%
31) +6.27 to +6.59% GazetaBitcoin
32) +6.60 to +6.92% vapourminer has pledged to give to talkimg

Right now number 16 would be the winner but it has not been picked.

Which would mean doing a new contest.

[mikeywith]

3 days left, unless an asteroid hits Riot or Mara no chance for me to win this, so most likely a play between the 2% guys!

Have faith bro, the pace has dropped like a dead body since the time you posted

Current Pace:   101.3016%  (1553 / 1533.05 expected, 19.95 ahead)

                       
You still hold a very good chance of winning this time.

Any chances of them jack up prices over $50/th?

I doubt it, Bitmain would be very careful regarding their prices, the having is around the corner, BTC needs to be above 50k then for mining profitability not to hit a new all-time low, I also don't see them running out of stock anytime soon.

[joker_josue]

You can get used s19xp's for  2699

new ones for 3600

reliable usa sellers  still have them in stock.

What is the RUI in the US for such a machine, based on the cost of the machine and energy?

[paid2]

What is the RUI in the US for such a machine, based on the cost of the machine and energy?

Do you mean ROI?

If yes, you can check through this website : https://whattomine.com/miners/170-bitmain-antminer-s19-xp?cost=0.1&cost_currency=USD&sort=profit24_desc
You can change the price of the kw/h as you want, the link (above shows the profit with a 0.1usd per kw/h by default.)  With the current market price, it would take nearly 3 years to hit ROI at 0.1usd per kw/h.

But the halving is coming soon (approx. 180 days from today) and the difficulty changes too, so I never expected this kind of "ROI previsions" to be true.

[philipma1957]

You can get used s19xp's for  2699

new ones for 3600

reliable usa sellers  still have them in stock.

What is the RUI in the US for such a machine, based on the cost of the machine and energy?

141 x 7.2 cents is 10.15 usd a day before power cost

so 2700/10.15 = 266 days not accounting for power cost and not accounting for the ½ ing

[stompix]

You can change the price of the kw/h as you want, the link (above shows the profit with a 0.1usd per kw/h by default.)  With the current market price, it would take nearly 3 years to hit ROI at 0.1usd per kw/h.

My opinion, but anyone who plans on mining with a flat rate of 10cents/kwh is just asking for trouble!
Those websites should start making their calculators by default in cents per kwh!

A machine at a price that won't ROI even with free electricity before the halving is a no-go for ones at cheaper rates, I might be the pessimist here but if you're above 5 cents don't even think about it, go for the coins and that's all. Of course, we're excluding people with special deals here, that pay a bit of their electricity at said price but recoup them in government credits or any other financial reimbursement scheme.

3 days left, unless an asteroid hits Riot or Mara no chance for me to win this, so most likely a play between the 2% guys!

Have faith bro, the pace has dropped like a dead body since the time you posted

I'm getting good at this kind of manipulation! 
But honestly, I'm surprised, probably because I'm more impulsive I would have expected this jump in price to trigger more of that overclocking and even bringing a bunch of old hardware online again, munching on every bit of extra power a facility has.
1.4% is....disappointing I would say!

Taking into account the time delay, I will say it even before the next period begins, unless the price retracts I don't see an under 3% adjustment next time.

[philipma1957]

You can change the price of the kw/h as you want, the link (above shows the profit with a 0.1usd per kw/h by default.)  With the current market price, it would take nearly 3 years to hit ROI at 0.1usd per kw/h.

My opinion, but anyone who plans on mining with a flat rate of 10cents/kwh is just asking for trouble!
Those websites should start making their calculators by default in cents per kwh!

A machine at a price that won't ROI even with free electricity before the halving is a no-go for ones at cheaper rates, I might be the pessimist here but if you're above 5 cents don't even think about it, go for the coins and that's all. Of course, we're excluding people with special deals here, that pay a bit of their electricity at said price but recoup them in government credits or any other financial reimbursement scheme.

3 days left, unless an asteroid hits Riot or Mara no chance for me to win this, so most likely a play between the 2% guys!

Have faith bro, the pace has dropped like a dead body since the time you posted

I'm getting good at this kind of manipulation! 
But honestly, I'm surprised, probably because I'm more impulsive I would have expected this jump in price to trigger more of that overclocking and even bringing a bunch of old hardware online again, munching on every bit of extra power a facility has.
1.4% is....disappointing I would say!

Taking into account the time delay, I will say it even before the next period begins, unless the price retracts I don't see an under 3% adjustment next time.

We slowly expand but frankly we are not going to grow the mine as we are near power cap unless we get a new transformer.

[joker_josue]

We slowly expand but frankly we are not going to grow the mine as we are near power cap unless we get a new transformer.

Do you use your own energy generation, or do you have an energy supplier?

[philipma1957]

We slowly expand but frankly we are not going to grow the mine as we are near power cap unless we get a new transformer.

Do you use your own energy generation, or do you have an energy supplier?

both. but we have no more room for solar. and the 320kwatt onsite transformer is pretty maxed out.