2023 Diff thread now opened.

[philipma1957]

picks are  open

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63% - Mikeywith pledged to talkimg
12) 3.64 to 3.96% - Warfare
13) 3.97 to 4.29% - Greyhats
14) 4.30 to 4.62%
15) 4.63 to 4.95% - GazetaBitcoin
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94%
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


I put joker_josue's pick in even though he was 5 blocks early
I think the title for the thread which reads

"Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened." was a tiny bit confusing.

so 3 picks in and 27 picks left.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814998  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.4766%  (535 / 517.03 expected, 17.97 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 63461355899802 and 64672609639284
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5975% and +3.5367%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 11:33 AM  (in 9d 22h 32m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 5:38 PM  (in 10d 4h 37m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 42m 39s and 13d 18h 48m 12s

we slipped a bit more. so if the jump ended right now number

11) would win  3.31 to 3.63%

eight picked 22 picks left

nine picked 21 picks left

10 picked 20 picks left

[1714774481]

1714774481

[1714774481]

1714774481

[1714774481]

1714774481

[Hueristic]

18) 5.62 to 5.94%  pledged to talkimg

[stompix]

This is refreshing, we're back to normal times, I was actually scared the first two competitions of how close I got

06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix
Current Pace:   106.4669%  (1006 / 944.89 expected, 61.11 ahead)

Yeah, this sounds more like my way of picking things 

So according to the btc.com we're sitting at 447 million terra hash, 6.4% is 28 mils TH.
Now, do we split this by S21 or S19, cause even if it's S21 it's ...damn 83 thousand machines!
Multiplying by 5.3 (advertised consumption), not taking into account cooling and it's 442MW, touching the previous discussion, it's one full nuclear reactor!

This growth is going to erase all half of the gains from the rise in price, and this even before the halving, and I really can't see the price just quadrupling like it's nothing in a year and staying like that, the amount needed to back it up to such high including all the profit takings is also insane!

[philipma1957]

picks are  open

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63% - Mikeywith pledged to talkimg
12) 3.64 to 3.96% - Warfare
13) 3.97 to 4.29% - Greyhats
14) 4.30 to 4.62%
15) 4.63 to 4.95% - GazetaBitcoin
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94% - Heuristic pledge to talkimg
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


I put joker_josue's pick in even though he was 5 blocks early
I think the title for the thread which reads

"Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened." was a tiny bit confusing.

so 3 picks in and 27 picks left.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   814998  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.4766%  (535 / 517.03 expected, 17.97 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 63461355899802 and 64672609639284
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.5975% and +3.5367%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 11:33 AM  (in 9d 22h 32m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 5:38 PM  (in 10d 4h 37m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 42m 39s and 13d 18h 48m 12s

we slipped a bit more. so if the jump ended right now number

11) would win  3.31 to 3.63%

eight picked 22 picks left

nine picked 21 picks left

10 picked 20 picks left

11 picked 19 picks left

[mikeywith]

Latest Block:   815503  (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   106.5813%  (1040 / 975.78 expected, 64.22 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 9:05 AM  (in 6d 8h 37m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 1:57 PM  (in 6d 13h 29m 6s)

No negative? So bullish are we? Or is this bearish in earnings?

negative what? 

Looking at this year's adjustment we had 6 negatives vs 17 positives, so roughly 25% negative adjustments vs 75%, despite being in more of a not-so-steep downtrend, given that price is up 20% from the year's average -- negative adjustment it will be extremely unlikely, in fact, I think this time we could have the longest streak of positive adjustments, one which we have not seen for years.

2023 longest streak = 5
2022 longest streak = 4
2021 longest steak =  9

right now we are at 4, I think we can easily do 3-4 more, so getting to the 2021 record or higher is possible.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   815510  (39 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.7644%  (1047 / 989.94 expected, 57.06 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 65210867989286 and 66084138844771
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.3984% and +5.7965%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 4:31 AM  (in 6d 8h 41m 52s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 8:45 AM  (in 6d 12h 55m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 5h 41m 14s and 13d 9h 55m 4s

Quite remarkable. means a lot of gear was waiting off line in hopes of better prices.

back to predictions

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63% - Mikeywith pledged to talkimg
12) 3.64 to 3.96% - Warfare
13) 3.97 to 4.29% - Greyhats
14) 4.30 to 4.62%
15) 4.63 to 4.95% - GazetaBitcoin
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94% - Heuristic pledged to talkimg
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


11 picked and 19 left

and  153 blocks to picks closing.

[stompix]

Latest Block:   815503  (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   106.5813%  (1040 / 975.78 expected, 64.22 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 9:05 AM  (in 6d 8h 37m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 1:57 PM  (in 6d 13h 29m 6s)

No negative? So bullish are we? Or is this bearish in earnings?

negative what? 

Looking at this year's adjustment we had 6 negatives vs 17 positives, so roughly 25% negative adjustments vs 75%, despite being in more of a not-so-steep downtrend, given that price is up 20% from the year's average -- negative adjustment it will be extremely unlikely, in fact, I think this time we could have the longest streak of positive adjustments, one which we have not seen for years.

Maybe but I'm a bit unsure about this, all it takes is some shenanigans and one company realizing they are losing money with no hope in sight to wipe off enough that we go under zero, the mining business is less fragmented and just one player could heavily influence the market, and despite their expansions plans and cheap energy a ton of them are still all in red and running on borrowed money.
One or two adjustments being positive yeah maybe with smaller increments, a record-breaking pace, I don't see it.

And speaking of 2022, that period was still galloping on high income per th/s,  the year started with 23 cents/th right now even with the price increase we're pinned well below that value, we would need another 30% up on what now just to cross 10.
I'm bearish long-term on expansion and even if I got this wrong I'm grabbing some popcorn to what's going to happen once the halving is here!
12 adjustment to go till it if my math is right!

Quite remarkable. means a lot of gear was waiting off line in hopes of better prices.

Doubt those were offline miners, more like a big player getting new toys, we're not having a gradual increase, we were at 4%-6% from day one, feels more like a new farm turning on rather than 300 000 old miners that were unprofitable 6 cents to become profitable at 8.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   815503  (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   106.5813%  (1040 / 975.78 expected, 64.22 ahead)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 9:05 AM  (in 6d 8h 37m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 1:57 PM  (in 6d 13h 29m 6s)

No negative? So bullish are we? Or is this bearish in earnings?

negative what? 

Looking at this year's adjustment we had 6 negatives vs 17 positives, so roughly 25% negative adjustments vs 75%, despite being in more of a not-so-steep downtrend, given that price is up 20% from the year's average -- negative adjustment it will be extremely unlikely, in fact, I think this time we could have the longest streak of positive adjustments, one which we have not seen for years.

Maybe but I'm a bit unsure about this, all it takes is some shenanigans and one company realizing they are losing money with no hope in sight to wipe off enough that we go under zero, the mining business is less fragmented and just one player could heavily influence the market, and despite their expansions plans and cheap energy a ton of them are still all in red and running on borrowed money.
One or two adjustments being positive yeah maybe with smaller increments, a record-breaking pace, I don't see it.

And speaking of 2022, that period was still galloping on high income per th/s,  the year started with 23 cents/th right now even with the price increase we're pinned well below that value, we would need another 30% up on what now just to cross 10.
I'm bearish long-term on expansion and even if I got this wrong I'm grabbing some popcorn to what's going to happen once the halving is here!
12 adjustment to go till it if my math is right!

Quite remarkable. means a lot of gear was waiting off line in hopes of better prices.

Doubt those were offline miners, more like a big player getting new toys, we're not having a gradual increase, we were at 4%-6% from day one, feels more like a new farm turning on rather than 300 000 old miners that were unprofitable 6 cents to become profitable at 8.

 6% is a lot of miners.

100,000 x 200 th = 20 eh and we went from 420 to 445

 it is likely the s21 in bulk

[alh]

I might be too late:

14) 4.30 to 4.62%  alh

[mikeywith]

Maybe but I'm a bit unsure about this, all it takes is some shenanigans and one company realizing they are losing money with no hope in sight to wipe off enough that we go under zero, the mining business is less fragmented and just one player could heavily influence the market, and despite their expansions plans and cheap energy a ton of them are still all in red and running on borrowed money.
One or two adjustments being positive yeah maybe with smaller increments, a record-breaking pace, I don't see it.

A record-breaking for a single adjustment is very unlikely given the size of the hashrate, but for a streak of positive adjustments is very likely, I do not see who and how will said companies come to realize that they are mining at a loss now when they did not months back when profits were less, those guys play with investors money, and investors still have money to gamble with.

IMO nothing will change that till the halving.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   815510  (39 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.7644%  (1047 / 989.94 expected, 57.06 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 65210867989286 and 66084138844771
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.3984% and +5.7965%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 12, 2023 at 4:31 AM  (in 6d 8h 41m 52s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 12, 2023 at 8:45 AM  (in 6d 12h 55m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 5h 41m 14s and 13d 9h 55m 4s

Quite remarkable. means a lot of gear was waiting off line in hopes of better prices.

back to predictions

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30%
11) 3.31 to 3.63% - Mikeywith pledged to talkimg
12) 3.64 to 3.96% - Warfare
13) 3.97 to 4.29% - Greyhats
14) 4.30 to 4.62% - alh
15) 4.63 to 4.95% - GazetaBitcoin
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94% - Heuristic pledged to talkimg
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


12 picked and 18 left

and  153 blocks to picks closing.

91 blocks left for picking.

[Biffa]

10) 2.98 to 3.30%

pls

[Greyhats]

Thanks Phil, i got feeling this one will go a bit higher again. Mix of gear that wasn't sold by the manufacturers and some older gear that may be back into profit even just a tiny bit. Northern hemisphere moving into cold season too, and with spot going up I think diff will rise fairly steadily for the next 2-3 months. Harder to speculate out past that.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   815635  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.8484%  (1172 / 1128.57 expected, 43.43 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 64446741651214 and 64884554290380
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.1751% and +3.8760%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 10:23 AM  (in 5d 15h 27m 13s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 12:34 PM  (in 5d 17h 38m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 11h 32m 54s and 13d 13h 43m 51s

Quite remarkable. means a lot of gear was waiting off line in hopes of better prices.

back to predictions

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30% - Biffa
11) 3.31 to 3.63% - Mikeywith pledged to talkimg
12) 3.64 to 3.96% - Warfare
13) 3.97 to 4.29% - Greyhats
14) 4.30 to 4.62% - alh
15) 4.63 to 4.95% - GazetaBitcoin
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94% - Heuristic pledged to talkimg
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


13 picked and 17 left

and  153 blocks to picks closing.

91 blocks left for picking.

28 blocks left for you all to make a pick..  to anyone out there numbers 8 and 9 are looking a little better.

you do have some time to grab at them.

time is very close to over.

a reminder the prize is 0.001 btc unless we do a moonshot ie over 100k a coin and then the cap is $100 worth of btc.

[philipma1957]

picks are done good luck to all.

[WatChe]

picks are done good luck to all.

Oh missed once again

Any ways Good luck to all participants.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   815712  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.5056%  (1249 / 1206.70 expected, 42.3 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Next Difficulty:   between 64340382328490 and 64669257007754
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.0048% and +3.5313%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 11:27 AM  (in 5d 3h 30m 13s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 1:06 PM  (in 5d 5h 9m 3s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 37m 12s and 13d 14h 16m 2s

mikeywith is leading with spot 11 good luck to all

[joker_josue]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   815712  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.5056%  (1249 / 1206.70 expected, 42.3 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Next Difficulty:   between 64340382328490 and 64669257007754
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.0048% and +3.5313%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 11:27 AM  (in 5d 3h 30m 13s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 1:06 PM  (in 5d 5h 9m 3s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 37m 12s and 13d 14h 16m 2s

mikeywith is leading with spot 11 good luck to all

It seems like it won't go beyond +3%. But it shouldn't reach 4% either.
Therefore, we will certainly have a winner between Biffa, Mikeywith, Warfare or Greyhats.

We'll see, good luck to everyone.

[mikeywith]

It seems like it won't go beyond +3%. But it shouldn't reach 4% either.
Therefore, we will certainly have a winner between Biffa, Mikeywith, Warfare or Greyhats.

We'll see, good luck to everyone.

Nop, too early to judge the pace, we are only half way into the epoch, the current pace is not an exact representation of the hashrate but rather a combination of that + luck, so luck alone is enough to change the current figure, let alone more gears going online/offline.

You could only be somewhat sure of a certain range when say 90-95% of blocks are done with, because then the weight of the left blocks will be pretty small, but with over 1k blocks ahead, we could easily go to 5% or 6%.

[philipma1957]

It seems like it won't go beyond +3%. But it shouldn't reach 4% either.
Therefore, we will certainly have a winner between Biffa, Mikeywith, Warfare or Greyhats.

We'll see, good luck to everyone.

Nop, too early to judge the pace, we are only half way into the epoch, the current pace is not an exact representation of the hashrate but rather a combination of that + luck, so luck alone is enough to change the current figure, let alone more gears going online/offline.

You could only be somewhat sure of a certain range when say 90-95% of blocks are done with, because then the weight of the left blocks will be pretty small, but with over 1k blocks ahead, we could easily go to 5% or 6%.

we could go as low as 2% or maybe as high as 6.5%