2023 Diff thread now opened.

[joker_josue]

Nop, too early to judge the pace, we are only half way into the epoch, the current pace is not an exact representation of the hashrate but rather a combination of that + luck, so luck alone is enough to change the current figure, let alone more gears going online/offline.

You could only be somewhat sure of a certain range when say 90-95% of blocks are done with, because then the weight of the left blocks will be pretty small, but with over 1k blocks ahead, we could easily go to 5% or 6%.

Thank you for the explanation.

In other words, it is only towards the end of the cycle that it is possible to understand more clearly what % we will end up at. Did I understand correctly?

Thank you @philipma1957 for bringing this topic to my attention, I'm learning a few more things about mining. 
_{I'm just sorry I'm not a miner - an old dream.}

[1714244861]

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[mikeywith]

In other words, it is only towards the end of the cycle that it is possible to understand more clearly what % we will end up at. Did I understand correctly?

Correct, you can think of it as a football match, if team A is leading by 2 goals at minute 10 team B still has 80 minutes to come back, whereby at minute 80, their chances are a lot less, so the closer we approach the end the better the prediction is, because difficulty just like a football match is only over when it is over.

In fact even the last single alone could in theory bring the pace down a large percentage, just imagine for some reason we get a world wide internet outage for 24 hours, even if all previous 2015 blocks took 10 minutes on average to finish the total time now is 21,590 which would result in roughly -7% adjustment, but the chances of one block taking 24 hours are pretty slim, whereby the chances of 1000 block taking 1200 mins instead of 1000 mins are higher.

[philipma1957]

In other words, it is only towards the end of the cycle that it is possible to understand more clearly what % we will end up at. Did I understand correctly?

Correct, you can think of it as a football match, if team A is leading by 2 goals at minute 10 team B still has 80 minutes to come back, whereby at minute 80, their chances are a lot less, so the closer we approach the end the better the prediction is, because difficulty just like a football match is only over when it is over.

In fact even the last single alone could in theory bring the pace down a large percentage, just imagine for some reason we get a world wide internet outage for 24 hours, even if all previous 2015 blocks took 10 minutes on average to finish the total time now is 21,590 which would result in roughly -7% adjustment, but the chances of one block taking 24 hours are pretty slim, whereby the chances of 1000 block taking 1200 mins instead of 1000 mins are higher.

We have had some very long blocks over the years. 2 hours comes to mind vs 10 minutes.

but if block 1 was 10 minutes and block 2 was 2 hours

we would be at 2 vs 13 which is  maybe -85% rate.

but if we are at 1999 block exactly on time then 2 hours

we are 2000 blocks in the time for 2011 which is -1%

same two block but much less effect.

I want to say we once had a four hour block but I may be wrong about that.

[joker_josue]

I want to say we once had a four hour block but I may be wrong about that.

It is true that the average is 10 minutes of interval in each block.
But what can cause such a long delay between blocks? A sudden and abrupt drop in hash?

[mikeywith]

But what can cause such a long delay between blocks? A sudden and abrupt drop in hash?

Not just that, but also the nature of science, to answer your question one needs to understand (CDF) exponential distribution, it gives you a clue of how often blocks are separated by  by x period of time.

Simply put the equation is exp(- x / mean)*100  where mean is your 10 mins block average time and x is the desired interval you want to solve and *100 is just to get a percentage readable figure.

So if you want to find the percentage of blocks that take 60 or more mins you can do

exp(-60/10)*100 = 0.24% of all blocks are expected to be separate by  60 or more mins

4 hours would be

exp(-240/10)*100 = 0.00000000377513454% which is a terribly small number.

[philipma1957]

in a nut shell why can black turn up on a roulette wheel spin 20 times in a row? rare but possible.


longshots come in.

[stompix]

Episode 239 of season 16, "Things that don't make any sense", preview:

Latest Block:   816032  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.2441%  (1569 / 1534.56 expected, 34.44 ahead)

If the previous jump was gear coming back online cause it was profitable, the pace actually going down for the last 3 days despite the price aiming at 40k and fees adding another 11% on top of that, no way! I call bs on this unless we hear one major farm just had a fire or was seized or bombed or whatever!

I welcome any reasonable explanation but I doubt there is one!

[philipma1957]

Bitmain has 100 megawatts of power

they have 200 megawatts of

s19
s21
L7
Kaspar gear.

They play musical chairs with it.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   816034  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.2124%  (1571 / 1537.00 expected, 34 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 63788510634384 and 63857893037917
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.1213% and +2.2324%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 3:34 PM  (in 3d 0h 33m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 3:55 PM  (in 3d 0h 54m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 43m 37s and 13d 17h 4m 53s

back to predictions

01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30% - Biffa
11) 3.31 to 3.63% - Mikeywith pledged to talkimg
12) 3.64 to 3.96% - Warfare
13) 3.97 to 4.29% - Greyhats
14) 4.30 to 4.62% - alh
15) 4.63 to 4.95% - GazetaBitcoin
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94% - Heuristic pledged to talkimg
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%


no 7) leads with 3 days to go

[joker_josue]

Bitmain has 100 megawatts of power

they have 200 megawatts of

s19
s21
L7
Kaspar gear.

They play musical chairs with it.

Isn't that more "power" concentrated in just one company?
I'm not saying that they are capable of achieving 51%. But, it has a lot of influence on mining action.

[philipma1957]

Bitmain has 100 megawatts of power

they have 200 megawatts of

s19
s21
L7
Kaspar gear.

They play musical chairs with it.

Isn't that more "power" concentrated in just one company?
I'm not saying that they are capable of achieving 51%. But, it has a lot of influence on mining action.

yes it does. We keep BTC in a separate area but if you were to look at this DOGE chart it clearly shows a switching pattern.

the btc cycle is 13-15 days so you do not see the seesaw action like you do on the 1.4 day doge cycles


a really big player/ miner starts to lose out when they go past 35% of all the hash

so bitmain switches on and off the scrypt mining with btc.  can I prove bitmain is doing it no.

Can I prove it is being done well look at the up down patterns on the doge chart far  to consistently up and down .  there should be some up up up up up patterns and there are far too little of them. Many would say I am off topic but I believe the big swings inside a btc 13-15 day adjustments match closely to the doge up and down patterns.

[alh]

BTC price has been on a solid upwards trend for at least two weeks now. I just saw it top $37K for the first time in many month. This is sure to help push up difficulty as people think that it's more profitable to mine BTC.

[philipma1957]

still borderline to mine

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   816173  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.5773%  (1710 / 1667.04 expected, 42.96 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Next Difficulty:   between 64046557857249 and 64084859588661
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.5344% and +2.5957%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 2:23 PM  (in 2d 1h 43m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 2:35 PM  (in 2d 1h 54m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 33m 28s and 13d 15h 45m 8s


2.57%

[philipma1957]

still borderline to mine

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   816173  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.5773%  (1710 / 1667.04 expected, 42.96 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                           
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Next Difficulty:   between 64046557857249 and 64084859588661
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.5344% and +2.5957%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 2:23 PM  (in 2d 1h 43m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 2:35 PM  (in 2d 1h 54m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 33m 28s and 13d 15h 45m 8s


2.57%.

 number 08) would win and no-one has picked that one.

[joker_josue]

Can I prove it is being done well look at the up down patterns on the doge chart far  to consistently up and down .  there should be some up up up up up patterns and there are far too little of them. Many would say I am off topic but I believe the big swings inside a btc 13-15 day adjustments match closely to the doge up and down patterns.

Based on your analysis, do you think that large miners (or manufacturers) are diverting mining power between Bitcoin and other currencies to gain an advantage over small miners?

Do you think this could harm Bitcoin mining in general? Especially now that we are getting close to the next halving.

[stompix]

Based on your analysis, do you think that large miners (or manufacturers) are diverting mining power between Bitcoin and other currencies to gain an advantage over small miners?

They can't divert mining power from other than Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV.
BCH has a total of 2.8 exa, 0.5% of Bitcoin, BSV is in petahash territory so I'm not going to do the math for it.

What Phil is suggesting is that somebody is turning off BTC gear and plugging in LTC and Doge (scrypt) miners or Kaspa, but well, I'm not buying this theory.
LTC's daily reward is $250k, Doge is 1mil, BTC is 44 mils, and they are more profitable right now per watt so less energy involved, I can't see something that uses in total 1% of the energy Bitcoin does influencing it by turning off just a part of it.

[joker_josue]

What Phil is suggesting is that somebody is turning off BTC gear and plugging in LTC and Doge (scrypt) miners or Kaspa, but well, I'm not buying this theory.
LTC's daily reward is $250k, Doge is 1mil, BTC is 44 mils, and they are more profitable right now per watt so less energy involved, I can't see something that uses in total 1% of the energy Bitcoin does influencing it by turning off just a part of it.

What would be the objective? Regardless of the market moment, Bitcoin always comes out with a better advantage in mining.
Unless, miners with older rigs and no ability to renew these rigs are directing their hash power to other currencies. Even so, they are limited by the algorithm used.

[philipma1957]

What Phil is suggesting is that somebody is turning off BTC gear and plugging in LTC and Doge (scrypt) miners or Kaspa, but well, I'm not buying this theory.
LTC's daily reward is $250k, Doge is 1mil, BTC is 44 mils, and they are more profitable right now per watt so less energy involved, I can't see something that uses in total 1% of the energy Bitcoin does influencing it by turning off just a part of it.

What would be the objective? Regardless of the market moment, Bitcoin always comes out with a better advantage in mining.
Unless, miners with older rigs and no ability to renew these rigs are directing their hash power to other currencies. Even so, they are limited by the algorithm used.

It does not quite belong in this section. But if you are a huge miner it does not pay to go over 35% of the network.

If you want to max profits you can turn gear off and drop diff by 25%. Then when the diff is 25% lower you can load up like mad and grab far more blocks than any one else until the next adjustment. Which goes way up. When the diff is way higher switch to btc which is more stable.

Switching 50 or 100 megawatts to btc moves btc 1 or 2 percent within the 13-15 day adjustment.

The chart I posted on doge diff proves 1 thing some mother fucker with huge amounts of ltc/doge gear turns it on and off. Over and over. Why not it is legal and maximizes profits in scrypt mining.

The best gear for Scrypt is bitmains it is 2x or 3x better than any other gear.

Stompix is likely wrong thinking this does not happen as the very reason it can happen is btc power use is far higher than scrypt on a daily basis. Which is why the fluctuations in the btc charts are smaller by far than the ones in the scrypt charts.

 The other reason it can happen is bitmain makes the best gear for scrypt no gear competes against them.

and if the rewards of ltc and doge are smaller in a day then btc but that per watt the rewards are bigger it makes business sense. It basically free money for bitmain.

It also can help fund the fee flooding we just had the last three days. Fees were jacked like a mother fucker.

I look at a bigger picture and it all fits in. Look at the up down pattern of doge difficuty in the chart above.

As a miner I can do the following:

 Mine both scrypt and sha256.
 Try to get 100% top of the line gear.
 Have excess gear like I assume bitmain has
switch from scrypt to sha 256 and back.

Doing all of the above at my level is possible.
I need 50 L7 I need 50 s21

I can run only 80 of above I would need to switch on about a 36 hour basis.

I do not even try to do it because I pay retail on the gear. (some discounts)

bitmain makes the gear I suspect they make and L7 at 1000 each and a s21 at 2000 each maybe as low as 1000 as I do not know if it its a new chip.

[joker_josue]

~~

Basically they turn the miners on when the difficulty goes down, and when the difficulty increases they turn the miners off - directing you to another job.

That makes sense to me. Which proves that there are large miners that adopt this strategy. In turn, this makes it clear that mining is less decentralized than it should be.
Is there any way to try to avoid this type of behavior in the future? Unfortunately I don't think so, and I believe it will get "worse".

[philipma1957]

~~

Basically they turn the miners on when the difficulty goes down, and when the difficulty increases they turn the miners off - directing you to another job.

That makes sense to me. Which proves that there are large miners that adopt this strategy. In turn, this makes it clear that mining is less decentralized than it should be.
Is there any way to try to avoid this type of behavior in the future? Unfortunately I don't think so, and I believe it will get "worse".

here look at this post I just did in another section

LN has its own issues.

This fee level dropped a bit. last blocks are running a bit under 1 coin in fees.
See the pattern repeat year after year.



next spring with rewards 3.125 miners will really need fees to grow.


funny how

2016 25       coins to 2-3 btc fees not bad  
2020 12.5    coins to 2-3 btc fees bad
2023  6.25   coins to 2-3 btc fees = terrible
2024  3.125 coins to 2-3 btc fees = a miners dream a users nightmare

large players have a vest interest in jacking up btc fees.

and they do it time and time again. It all ties in with how to max your profits.



BT topic.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   816325  (26 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.1092%  (1862 / 1805.85 expected, 56.15 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 64404555057593 and 64416304463627
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.1075% and +3.1264%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 12:42 PM  (in 1d 0h 53m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 12:46 PM  (in 1d 0h 57m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 13h 52m 4s and 13d 13h 55m 37s

we are up to 3.1% that would mean 10) biffa in the lead with about 1 day to go. those blank spots could still mean no winner



01) 0.01 to 0.33%. I will pick this and give to joker_josue if I win philipma1957
02) 0.34 to 0.66%
03) 0.67 to 0.99% - joker_josue
04) 1.00 to 1.32%
05) 1.33 to 1.65%
06) 1.66 to 1.98%  - Stompix pledges to rollover to next pot.
07) 1.99 to 2.31%  - iwantmyhomepaidwithbtc2
08) 2.32 to 2.64%
09) 2.65 to 2.97%
10) 2.98 to 3.30% - Biffa
11) 3.31 to 3.63% - Mikeywith pledged to talkimg
12) 3.64 to 3.96% - Warfare
13) 3.97 to 4.29% - Greyhats
14) 4.30 to 4.62% - alh
15) 4.63 to 4.95% - GazetaBitcoin
16) 4.96 to 5.28% - NeuroticFish pledged to talkimg
17) 5.29 to 5.61% - vapourminer pledged to talkimg
18) 5.62 to 5.94% - Heuristic pledged to talkimg
19) 5.95 to 6.27%
20) 6.28 to 6.60%
21) 6.61 to 6.93%
22) 6.94 to 7.26%
23) 7.27 to 7.59%
24) 7.60 to 7.92%
25) 7.93 to 8.25%
26) 8.26 to 8.58%
27) 8.59 to 8.91%
28) 8.92 to 9.24%
29) 9.25 to 9.57%
30) 9.58 to 9.90%



Sunday and with 27-28 blocks to go 10) biffa is in the lead

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   816451  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.1093%  (1988 / 1928.05 expected, 59.95 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   61030681983175.59                            
Current Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Next Difficulty:   between 64415269217967 and 64415657564012
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.1247% and +3.1253%
Previous Retarget:   October 29, 2023 at 11:50 PM  (+2.3477%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 12:42 PM  (in 0d 4h 31m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 12:42 PM  (in 0d 4h 31m 40s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 13h 52m 4s and 13d 13h 52m 11s

we are in danger of no winner as it could drop to 09) or 08) which were not picked.



update we shifted to 3.34% putting mikeywith in the lead at block 2005
update we shifted to 3.48% keeping mikeywith in the lead at block 2009

[philipma1957]

at 2014 blocks mikeywith has a good lead.

biffa is the only one that can catch he and we would need some really long block times for this to happen.



mikeywith has won with number 11) 3.31 to 3.63

Latest Block:   816492  (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   130.0681%  (13 / 9.99 expected, 3.01 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Current Difficulty:   64678587803496.61                           
Next Difficulty:   between 64881559485328 and 85480352015741
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3138% and +32.1617%

Previous Retarget:   Today at 11:22 AM  (+3.5463%)

Next Retarget (earliest):   November 23, 2023 at 5:42 AM  (in 10d 16h 39m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 26, 2023 at 10:23 AM  (in 13d 21h 20m 8s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 10d 18h 19m 34s and 13d 23h 0m 5s

mikeywith pledged his winning to talkimage