2023 Diff thread now opened.

[joker_josue]

Well, if they have their own energy source, it won't be that complicated to mine. Furthermore, they can always claim that they are testing the equipment. In turn, this is a factory, so energy consumption is always high, which easily ignores this analysis.

It is nearly impossible to hide a large mining operation, we are talking dozen Megawatts 24/7.

But they are a factory, you don't have to hide anything, just keep consumption constant. I don't directly know all the details of this ban in China, but from what I understand, what is banned are mining companies or personal mining. In this case, it is a factory, it does not fit into a mining company, much less a personal miner.

Do you really think they don't put the new ASICs to mine for a few weeks?

[1714328550]

1714328550

[1714328550]

1714328550

[stompix]

But they are a factory, you don't have to hide anything, just keep consumption constant.

How would they keep it constant when they need to plug in extra exahash of machines?
Let's assume they are responsible for 3%, at 400 exa that's 12exahash, so 40 000 S21, 5kw so 200MW of power, half a nuclear reactor! 
Not even going to go into the details of adding an extra power line for 10MW but 200MW?

Well, if they have their own energy source, it won't be that complicated to mine.

200MW! To give you an example the nearby BMW factory has a 45MW peak power consumption, they've made an entire show of how the new cogen engines will provide 10MW of green power.  And here we're talking about 200MW going undiscovered in China!

Meanwhile:

Latest Block:   817312  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   99.5137%  (833 / 837.07 expected, 4.07 behind)

goign to turn positive again
Also, last block:

Fee span   317 - 3,249 sat/vB
Median fee   ~329 sat/vB$16.76
Total fees   ‎3.436 BTC$125,206
Subsidy + fees   ‎9.686 BTC$352,944

Some juicy fees for the weekend. Fudgeeeeee!

[philipma1957]

But they are a factory, you don't have to hide anything, just keep consumption constant.

How would they keep it constant when they need to plug in extra exahash of machines?
Let's assume they are responsible for 3%, at 400 exa that's 12exahash, so 40 000 S21, 5kw so 200MW of power, half a nuclear reactor!  
Not even going to go into the details of adding an extra power line for 10MW but 200MW?

Well, if they have their own energy source, it won't be that complicated to mine.

200MW! To give you an example the nearby BMW factory has a 45MW peak power consumption, they've made an entire show of how the new cogen engines will provide 10MW of green power.  And here we're talking about 200MW going undiscovered in China!

Meanwhile:

Latest Block:   817312  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   99.5137%  (833 / 837.07 expected, 4.07 behind)

goign to turn positive again
Also, last block:

Fee span   317 - 3,249 sat/vB
Median fee   ~329 sat/vB$16.76
Total fees   ‎3.436 BTC$125,206
Subsidy + fees   ‎9.686 BTC$352,944

Some juicy fees for the weekend. Fudgeeeeee!

last ten blocks

817324------------ 2.84
817323------------ 2.93
817322------------ 3.41
817321------------ 2.98
817320------------ 3.04
817319------------ 3.79
817318------------ 3.10
817317-------------2.51
817316-------------3.21
817315-------------3.43
total---------------- 31.24 blocks

average of 3.124 btc a block in fees

so say .6124 is normal an extra 2.5 btc a block

[joker_josue]

But they are a factory, you don't have to hide anything, just keep consumption constant.

How would they keep it constant when they need to plug in extra exahash of machines?
Let's assume they are responsible for 3%, at 400 exa that's 12exahash, so 40 000 S21, 5kw so 200MW of power, half a nuclear reactor! 
Not even going to go into the details of adding an extra power line for 10MW but 200MW?

Well, if they have their own energy source, it won't be that complicated to mine.

200MW! To give you an example the nearby BMW factory has a 45MW peak power consumption, they've made an entire show of how the new cogen engines will provide 10MW of green power.  And here we're talking about 200MW going undiscovered in China!

Yes it is true.
But basically what I want to say is that they probably don't fit into the category of miners, and this allows them to operate without major problems.

In turn, nothing stops them from taking the new machines they manufacture to a neighboring country: Russia, Mongolia, Thailand, Vietnam; to undermine. The cost of energy in these countries should be similar.

[philipma1957]

Look If I buy 10,000 s21's from bitmain get them in Jan of 2024 and get a 1 year warranty.

I do not care if they burn test them for 1-2 months first.

but 10,000 pieces of gear are 3.5 x 10,000 = 35,000 kwatts of power or 35 mw's

I think bitmain does not have a 35mw farm on the soil of China

I also think they do burn test the gear in liquid tanks and then put them in air machines.

But not for 1-2 months and not all of them.

If you build 10000 pieces and burn test 500 at random for 2 days each you would know the fail rate.

If I were riot. I would have a rep at the manufacturer testing the gear  to be sure I am not screwed.

So I am sure the shit gets burn tested to some degree.

[mikeywith]

Do you really think they don't put the new ASICs to mine for a few weeks?

I don't know what I do not know, but what I know suggests that Bitmain need to be stupid in order to do this, the risk involved is great.

stompy gave you an explanation of the "size", and I already stated that it is impossible to hide a large mining operation, mining is illegal in China for everyone, Bitmain can manufacture gears but they can not run them for profit, noway on earth they would hide a large mining op from the eyes of the government and the power company.

Mining infrastructure is expensive, makes no sense to spend millions only to mine off and on, let alone immersion cooling which is super expensive.

The risk of leaving trails, if one large corp proves they got used gears sold as new they could basically screw Bitmain big time, Bitmain has 10-15 large clients who probably buy 90% of thier products, would be stupid as hell to risk playing dirty games with them.

If Bitmain makes more $ mining, why sell gears? If selling gear = more money why bother mine? Plus, even if they saw a massive chance to make profit mining, they would better off selling the gear used, but again, they have no mining operation in China because -- they can't.

Shipping miners to other countries just to temporary mine with them then send them back to China makes no sense, high cost besides, miners import to China is not allowed unless for warranty claims.

So ya, i don't think they do what many people claim Bitmain does, not because I think they are sane, i know Bitmain is evil enough that if they needed to use human parts inside their miners to make them run faster -- they would not think twice, I just think they are too smart to play this game now, they have enough U.S large corps who gamble with investors money and are willing to throw any amount at Bitmain's gears, they are better off rushing to sell miners than going through all the misery i explained above.

And finally, of course, I could be totally wrong.


 

[joker_josue]

So ya, i don't think they do what many people claim Bitmain does, not because I think they are sane, i know Bitmain is eveil enough that if they needed to use human parts inside their miners to make them run faster -- they would not think twice, I just think they are too smart to play this game now, they have enough U.S large corps who gamble with investors money and are willing to throw any amount at Bitmain's gears, they are better off rushing to sell miners than going through all the misery i explained above.

And finally, of course, I could be totally wrong.

Wrong or not, he used convincing and valid arguments. Maybe I have already done this in the past, and today I don't need to do it.

What they need is competition, something that doesn't happen as it should.
Ultimately, the mining market is for those who entered early or those who have a lot of money.

[Artemis3]

Network is above 600 EH/s, next year, who knows...

[mikeywith]

Latest Block:   817539  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   103.0420%  (1060 / 1028.71 expected, 31.29 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Current Difficulty:   64678587803496.61                           
Next Difficulty:   between 66201141558120 and 66656354686942
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 14h 4m 50s and 13d 16h 18m 40s

So we went from -3 to +3, that's about what, 80k S21s, double that for S19s? so how does this hold for Bitmain using gears theory, did the shipment arrive in 3 days, and now all gears are up and running?

Transaction fees are slowing down a little, 70 sat/Vbyte is the next block confirmation, down to about 7.3BTC Subsidy + fees, yesterday we had some blocks of over 10 BTC, past a few days were a good boost for miners, of course, not the best for those who want to transact.

[joker_josue]

Transaction fees are slowing down a little, 70 sat/Vbyte is the next block confirmation, down to about 7.3BTC Subsidy + fees, yesterday we had some blocks of over 10 BTC, past a few days were a good boost for miners, of course, not the best for those who want to transact.

I've had the feeling that rates have dropped a little when it's nighttime in Europe. Is it pure coincidence? 
Maybe this is the time when I pay more attention to fees, I don't know. But, it seems to me that this has happened. Do you feel the same?

[philipma1957]

Well rewards dropped.

last ten blocks are down a lot.

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks

we were ripping 2-3 btc in fees

now .7-1.5 still high

[joker_josue]

Well rewards dropped.

last ten blocks are down a lot.

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks

we were ripping 2-3 btc in fees

now .7-1.5 still high

Now that it is morning again in Europe, let's pay attention to the performance of fees.

Last block at the time of this post:
https://mempool.space/pt/block/000000000000000000013ee94945b0003fbe16d4ccdcbffe2f400e4c6fe4e0e5

[philipma1957]

Network is above 600 EH/s, next year, who knows...

Well if it happens we would need an ATH price to keep mining on.

once the ½ ing kicks in 37k is like 18.5k add high fees that take longer to go. and it would be like you are mining at 20k

are are at 450 so 600 is a 33% increase.

Should be interesting.

[mikeywith]

I've had the feeling that rates have dropped a little when it's nighttime in Europe. Is it pure coincidence? 
Maybe this is the time when I pay more attention to fees, I don't know. But, it seems to me that this has happened. Do you feel the same?

Ya fees usually drop during weekends, so ya, I'd imagine nighttime around EU would have at least a small impact on the fees, however, with these ordinals and everything advancing so fast, I am sure many of these pending transactions are performed by bots which never sleep, so the impact of nighttime and weekends are going to be reduced over time, even the wallets we use now will at some point become smart enough to automate fees based on real-time data.

Latest Block:   817713  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.1149%  (1234 / 1185.23 expected, 48.77 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Current Difficulty:   64678587803496.61                            
Next Difficulty:   between 66933225640083 and 67349038867539
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.4859% and +4.1288%
Previous Retarget:   November 12, 2023 at 6:22 PM  (+3.5463%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 5:06 AM  (in 5d 5h 10m 55s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 7:06 AM  (in 5d 7h 10m 49s)

The pace is picking up fast, I think it's about time that it slows down, I think +3% is going to be it.

[Greyhats]

Do you really think they don't put the new ASICs to mine for a few weeks?

I don't know what I do not know, but what I know suggests that Bitmain need to be stupid in order to do this, the risk involved is great.

stompy gave you an explanation of the "size", and I already stated that it is impossible to hide a large mining operation, mining is illegal in China for everyone, Bitmain can manufacture gears but they can not run them for profit, noway on earth they would hide a large mining op from the eyes of the government and the power company.

Mining infrastructure is expensive, makes no sense to spend millions only to mine off and on, let alone immersion cooling which is super expensive.

The risk of leaving trails, if one large corp proves they got used gears sold as new they could basically screw Bitmain big time, Bitmain has 10-15 large clients who probably buy 90% of thier products, would be stupid as hell to risk playing dirty games with them.

If Bitmain makes more $ mining, why sell gears? If selling gear = more money why bother mine? Plus, even if they saw a massive chance to make profit mining, they would better off selling the gear used, but again, they have no mining operation in China because -- they can't.

Shipping miners to other countries just to temporary mine with them then send them back to China makes no sense, high cost besides, miners import to China is not allowed unless for warranty claims.

So ya, i don't think they do what many people claim Bitmain does, not because I think they are sane, i know Bitmain is evil enough that if they needed to use human parts inside their miners to make them run faster -- they would not think twice, I just think they are too smart to play this game now, they have enough U.S large corps who gamble with investors money and are willing to throw any amount at Bitmain's gears, they are better off rushing to sell miners than going through all the misery i explained above.

And finally, of course, I could be totally wrong.


 

Conspiracy theory kicked in a bit, would it be far fetched to say there is a burnin factory in the region the miners are destined for, ie ship to us mainland a month in advance and sell to consumers. Maybe there is some preferential pricing to get miners faster from the regional factory Vs the origin overseas factory. If I was a big farm getting qa done pre-order, fast order to availability is appetising. Pure guessing with my tinfoil hat on though and do agree that Bitmain wouldn’t risk mining on china mainland even if there were backhanders in place.

[mikeywith]

Conspiracy theory kicked in a bit, would it be far fetched to say there is a burnin factory in the region the miners are destined for, ie ship to us mainland a month in advance and sell to consumers. Maybe there is some preferential pricing to get miners faster from the regional factory Vs the origin overseas factory. If I was a big farm getting qa done pre-order, fast order to availability is appetising. Pure guessing with my tinfoil hat on though and do agree that Bitmain wouldn’t risk mining on china mainland even if there were backhanders in place.

That is an interesting theory, however, the vast majority of mining gears are bought by large corporations, we talking multi-billion dollar big, those guys don't walk into a store and pick-up their 50,000 miners on mini trucks, those are huge orders that cost tens of millions and most likely require official banking papers like Letter of Credit at Sight, where official export/import papers are presented to the buyer and seller's banks.

Furthermore, these large corporations are not naive, it would take a lot to trick them into buying used gears as new, at least this is what I think, I could be wrong and they guys could be easily lied to by Bitmain, I just think it's unlikely, but I can't say it's impossible.

Current difficulty status.

Latest Block:   817847  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   103.4802%  (1368 / 1321.99 expected, 46.01 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                           
Current Difficulty:   64678587803496.61                           
Next Difficulty:   between 66696872157602 and 66937541780635
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.1205% and +3.4926%
Previous Retarget:   November 12, 2023 at 6:22 PM  (+3.5463%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 7:04 AM  (in 4d 8h 22m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 8:15 AM  (in 4d 9h 32m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 41m 59s and 13d 13h 52m 2s

Current transaction fee is 60 sat/Vbyte, a lot lower than last week but way above the year average.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   817944  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.4589%  (1465 / 1416.02 expected, 48.98 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   62463471666732.73                            
Current Difficulty:   64678587803496.61                            
Next Difficulty:   between 66750216791256 and 66923265466373
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.2030% and +3.4705%
Previous Retarget:   November 12, 2023 at 11:22 AM  (+3.5463%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 12:08 AM  (in 3d 16h 45m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 12:59 AM  (in 3d 17h 36m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 45m 59s and 13d 13h 36m 20s

4 days to go. solid gain +3.45%

Having worked with every bitmain miner except the s11.

If I was buying 50,000 new units I would insist on at least 5,000 being burn tested for two-four weeks.

I would want my people to pick them at random as I would want an idea of just how shitty they are.

So I have to think these are burn tested for quality control for big buyers.

Is there really a Malaysia factory? I have read articles that one is used to get around trump tax.

[stompix]

Seems like after a false start it keeps growing

Current Pace:   104.0238%  (1515 / 1456.40 expected, 58.6 ahead)

If we go only by half of the period , so after block 800 you would have 60 extra blocks in 650, touching 10% ...
Again if, this is real and not extra luck now and extra unluck in the first days, then it would mean we're up for another positive adjustment for sure the next one, at least 2% .
So at this point looks like Mikey will get his record winning streak, and he will share the price of revenue down by 10% with eve single one of us.  Thank god for the price bump, imagine it would have been 26k now..

Now that it is morning again in Europe, let's pay attention to the performance of fees.

No longer the case for big moves, usually you would have time till around 10-12 GMT to enjoy some late extra cheap fees, but the impact is lower and lower, there is just too much clog left to have cheaper fees and already pretty high ones to have spikes from normal users, nobody is going to wake up and say, I fell like spending $20 on a tx now because it's Monday it's raining and I feel like killing myself..

Seems like they have started to flatten, still in the 60-80 but without so many overpaying like nutcases, we just had a block with max fee of 252 and one with 254sat/b, one week ago seeing max of >3000-5000 each block or even 10k was the usual.

[joker_josue]

No longer the case for big moves, usually you would have time till around 10-12 GMT to enjoy some late extra cheap fees, but the impact is lower and lower, there is just too much clog left to have cheaper fees and already pretty high ones to have spikes from normal users, nobody is going to wake up and say, I fell like spending $20 on a tx now because it's Monday it's raining and I feel like killing myself..

I said that, because on Saturday night I made a transfer request at around 52sat/vB, which at the time expected +/-1h to process. But it didn't process, and rates rose sharply again on Sunday. On Sunday night, they went down again and ended up being processed. In other words, I really felt this drop in rates overnight. But it could have been pure coincidence.

Having worked with every bitmain miner except the s11.

Of all of them, which do you think has the best viability?
To give you an idea, which one will be the most reliable when buying second-hand? (I know, second hand it's always hard to tell, because there are so many factors involved.)

[philipma1957]

No longer the case for big moves, usually you would have time till around 10-12 GMT to enjoy some late extra cheap fees, but the impact is lower and lower, there is just too much clog left to have cheaper fees and already pretty high ones to have spikes from normal users, nobody is going to wake up and say, I fell like spending $20 on a tx now because it's Monday it's raining and I feel like killing myself..

I said that, because on Saturday night I made a transfer request at around 52sat/vB, which at the time expected +/-1h to process. But it didn't process, and rates rose sharply again on Sunday. On Sunday night, they went down again and ended up being processed. In other words, I really felt this drop in rates overnight. But it could have been pure coincidence.

Having worked with every bitmain miner except the s11.

Of all of them, which do you think has the best viability?
To give you an idea, which one will be the most reliable when buying second-hand? (I know, second hand it's always hard to tell, because there are so many factors involved.)

look for a 2 board s19 program it with braiins .

set it to do  2700 watts for 3 boards . you will end up pulling 1800 watts it won't be loud and should be a good steady piece of gear.

If I remember you are in Europe.  I think I shipped pieces to your country but it is very costly for me to send one to you. You need find one you can pick up.