2023 Diff thread now opened.

[mikeywith]

Using 2016 blocks to determine each diff change is not highly accurate

if you calculate the probability of a 5% diff increase without an actual 5% hashrate increase in 2016 blocks, or in other words, what are the chances 2016 blocks take 5% less time to mine than the expected 10 mins without any real hashrate change, I think using the exponential CDF to get a clue, the probability is close to zero, ya it gets better if you were to assume that it's possible that 50% (2.5% of that increase was caused by an actual increase in hash power) while the other 2.5% was caused by pure randomness, but still the probability of that 2.5% is also close to zero.

I agree, there is no definite way to measure the network hashrate, nothing you can take to court and present as clear cut evidence, but generally speaking, a 5% increase in difficulty is most likely the result of an almost 5% increase in hashrate, ya it could be 5.1% or 4.9%, nobody knows, but 5% in 2016 blocks is fairly accurate.

[1714558732]

1714558732

[1714558732]

1714558732

[1714558732]

1714558732

[1714558732]

1714558732

[1714558732]

1714558732

[philipma1957]

you can see trends that make sense.  

we were -7 blocks we are + 11 blocks

you can correlate it to the price going from 388xx to 422xx

but it is small not huge the small it is the more likely it is noise not a true trend.


144 blocks set to be made in a day using 1 million machines doing 500eh =  2023

144 blocks set to be made in a day using 100k machines doing 21th =  2012

we used to have a lot of variance back in 2012 to 2013


120 block days followed by 200 block days filled by 130 block days

we do not have 200 block days and we rarely go under 120.

but if I say it is always a prefect six sided die being rolled a lot to get 144 blocks

(think of the difficulty software doing the perfect rolls)

as the diff goes up more rolls are needed for a block so is the mechanism generating flatter variance.


Ie 100,000 spins of a die = average to hit a block due to a diff of 100k
vs 1 trillion spins of a die = average to hit a block due to a diff of 1t

or is the random software generator looking for the block  not acting that way.

My small stupid mind has never fully understood this aspect of random software generation.

I know that we set limits on the software saying 1 trillion or 65 trillion hits a block

but as diff expands do we even out variance since we approach infinity. ( I know we are never getting to infinity)



I keep thinking the larger diff gets and to more machine running it should flatten variance a little.

[stompix]

So finally for a while keeping above 100% and starting to get some lead

Current Pace:   100.9575%  (1432 / 1418.42 expected, 13.58 ahead)

We might snatch another positive adjustment, and with the price seemingly unstoppable I don't really know if we're going to hit a negative till the halving.
Not only is the price up but due to possible FOMO I guess fees are again up, over 200sat/vb constantly, last blocks
‎2.674
‎2.504
‎2.823

9 btc for a block at $43k, close to $400k
back two and a half months ago, under 200k per block.
So, simple math says 800 exahash in sight?  

ps
No I'm not doing the nuclear reactors thing as probably I would get a headache seeing how much would be needed!

[philipma1957]

So finally for a while keeping above 100% and starting to get some lead

Current Pace:   100.9575%  (1432 / 1418.42 expected, 13.58 ahead)

We might snatch another positive adjustment, and with the price seemingly unstoppable I don't really know if we're going to hit a negative till the halving.
Not only is the price up but due to possible FOMO I guess fees are again up, over 200sat/vb constantly, last blocks
‎2.674
‎2.504
‎2.823

9 btc for a block at $43k, close to $400k
back two and a half months ago, under 200k per block.
So, simple math says 800 exahash in sight?  

ps
No I'm not doing the nuclear reactors thing as probably I would get a headache seeing how much would be needed!

we are pushing 6ph. not enough want more.

[kano]

Using 2016 blocks to determine each diff change is not highly accurate

if you calculate the probability of a 5% diff increase without an actual 5% hashrate increase in 2016 blocks, or in other words, what are the chances 2016 blocks take 5% less time to mine than the expected 10 mins without any real hashrate change, I think using the exponential CDF to get a clue, the probability is close to zero, ya it gets better if you were to assume that it's possible that 50% (2.5% of that increase was caused by an actual increase in hash power) while the other 2.5% was caused by pure randomness, but still the probability of that 2.5% is also close to zero.

I agree, there is no definite way to measure the network hashrate, nothing you can take to court and present as clear cut evidence, but generally speaking, a 5% increase in difficulty is most likely the result of an almost 5% increase in hashrate, ya it could be 5.1% or 4.9%, nobody knows, but 5% in 2016 blocks is fairly accurate.

Sigh.

So the actual calculation comes from the Erlang Distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erlang_distribution

It allows you to ask questions like: what is the chance that 2016 events are 1% (or more) higher than the expected value.

i.e. they have a mean > 1.01 (and note that like the CDF, the '>' 'greater than' is important i.e. it could be any value > 1%)

I specifically display a stat related to this on my pool (alas no other pool does, prolly coz most pools have little understanding of statistics)
Feel free to try using wolfram's site if you want to plug numbers in yourself, but here's the actual answers:

So the CDF[Erl] (as I call it on my pool) for 2016 events with a mean > 1.01 is 0.67542 (in the gsl library this is called the cdf_gamma_P)
This means that there's a (1-0.67542) 32.5% chance it will be wrong by more than 1%
With 1.03 it's 0.910066 - so it's a 9% chance the value will be wrong by more than 3%
With 1.05 it's 0.986655 - so it's a 1.3% chance the value will be wrong by more than 5%
Now I'm not sure about you, but more than 3% wrong is a really big number - and that happens with 9% of diff changes.
And to clarify that, 9% of diff changes will be wrong by more than 3%, not 'might' be wrong.
And 32.5% - almost a third - of diff changes will be wrong by more than 1%

Edit: I should also point out that the fewer blocks you use to estimate the network hash rate
(e.g. a tiny number like 144 in a day) the way more inaccurate it can be.
To give an example of one day = 144 blocks
CDF[Erl] 144,144,1.05 (i.e. > 5% wrong) is 26.8%

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator



Latest Block:   820355  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.2407%  (1860 / 1893.31 expected, 33.31 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   64678587803496.61                           
Current Difficulty:   67957790298897.88                           
Next Difficulty:   between 66777302815147 and 66784249287754
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.7371% and -1.7269%
Previous Retarget:   November 25, 2023 at 7:11 PM  (+5.0700%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 1:10 AM  (in 1d 2h 25m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 1:12 AM  (in 1d 2h 27m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 58m 52s and 14d 6h 1m 1s

negative 1.72% seems good for miners.

most blocks are over 1btc in fees.

[joker_josue]

negative 1.72% seems good for miners.

most blocks are over 1btc in fees.

Could this mean that in the next cycle we will have more mining power coming in, to take advantage of this drop in difficulty?
Or does this normally not happen?

[NeuroticFish]

Could this mean that in the next cycle we will have more mining power coming in, to take advantage of this drop in difficulty?
Or does this normally not happen?

I even have the impression that sometimes (I don't know how often, I don't watch it that closely) some miner(s) turn the gears off in the last days/hours before the retargeting to help lowering the difficulty for the following two weeks. Of course, I can't tell for sure it happens for real or it's just a feeling.

[paid2]

I even have the impression that sometimes (I don't know how often, I don't watch it that closely) some miner(s) turn the gears off in the last days/hours before the retargeting to help lowering the difficulty for the following two weeks. Of course, I can't tell for sure it happens for real or it's just a feeling.

Indeed, I think it has crossed all of our minds at some point. But I wonder if the losses linked to switching off their ASICs would not be greater than what they would gain even with a slight reduction in difficulty.

I guess it's case by case as always, but it seems to be a risky bet.

[stompix]

Could this mean that in the next cycle we will have more mining power coming in, to take advantage of this drop in difficulty?
Or does this normally not happen?

I even have the impression that sometimes (I don't know how often, I don't watch it that closely) some miner(s) turn the gears off in the last days/hours before the retargeting to help lowering the difficulty for the following two weeks. Of course, I can't tell for sure it happens for real or it's just a feeling.

Well, for sure is not happening no since we have 156 blocks mined in the last 24 hours, so  8% up from normal pace.

There are two possibilities:
- randomness, as kano mentioned above, some think that just because things repeat in a pattern for a while it can't be simply coincidence, when it for sure can
- the stompix effect or the fudge effect, depending on the one that named it

We might snatch another positive adjustment, and with the price seemingly unstoppable I don't really know if we're going to hit a negative till the halving.
~
Pace is just under the normal but I blame the really slow start, we had a really unlucky day on the second one, with just 131 blocks in 24 hours, so I'm still thinking 2% is easy doable.

Usually when you see me full of myself and claiming that or this for sure, bulletproof bet to bet on the opposite 
I don't get it, I got 7 out of 8 winners at racing today but I can't nail this damn difficulty!

[philipma1957]

Could this mean that in the next cycle we will have more mining power coming in, to take advantage of this drop in difficulty?
Or does this normally not happen?

I even have the impression that sometimes (I don't know how often, I don't watch it that closely) some miner(s) turn the gears off in the last days/hours before the retargeting to help lowering the difficulty for the following two weeks. Of course, I can't tell for sure it happens for real or it's just a feeling.

of course it is real.  think opec.

The top 10 mines can raise hash rates up and down at will.

Now think super high fees. And slow blocks to 134 or 137 vs 144.

Log jams fees like mad.

look at fees now. we are stuck at 30-40 sats




 we were over 140 sats.




When the ½ ing comes miners have an interest in raising fees.



6.25 btc + 0.50 btc = the 4 year average

3.125 btc + 1.00 btc = the next 4 year average ? maybe if big miners can do agreements to force fees higher. they have a large money incentive to work

together like opec has done at times.

[joker_josue]

of course it is real.  think opec.

The top 10 mines can raise hash rates up and down at will.

Now think super high fees. And slow blocks to 134 or 137 vs 144.

Log jams fees like mad.

look at fees now. we are stuck at 30-40 sats

Do you also follow this scheme, of turning off when the difficulty increases, and turning it back on when it decreases? 

[philipma1957]

of course it is real.  think opec.

The top 10 mines can raise hash rates up and down at will.

Now think super high fees. And slow blocks to 134 or 137 vs 144.

Log jams fees like mad.

look at fees now. we are stuck at 30-40 sats

Do you also follow this scheme, of turning off when the difficulty increases, and turning it back on when it decreases?  

fuck no.

 I am a minnow  6ph hash is so tiny.   450,000ph

I am 6/450,000 of the network.

last 10 blocks


0.48
0.54
0.51
0.78
0.58
1.06
1.19
0.69
0.74
0.63


fee info is from here https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks


foundry make 48 blocks a day so if they can keep fees up they collect fees 48 times a day.

[joker_josue]

fuck no.

 I am a minnow  6ph hash is so tiny.   450,000ph

I am 6/450,000 of the network.

For you, what is the best time: high difficulty and high fees; or lower difficulty and "normal" fees?
Of course, with high rates you always earn more for your work. But if the difficulty increases, you do less work.
So what makes the most sense for you?

[philipma1957]

fuck no.

 I am a minnow  6ph hash is so tiny.   450,000ph

I am 6/450,000 of the network.

For you, what is the best time: high difficulty and high fees; or lower difficulty and "normal" fees?
Of course, with high rates you always earn more for your work. But if the difficulty increases, you do less work.
So what makes the most sense for you?

good question.

my power is cheap.

but I have just under 300kwatts.

so i am better off with lower diff.

I am at 6ph btc
and 60 gh ltc/doge
and 3000mh/kawpow on nice hash.

I am filled.

[joker_josue]

good question.

my power is cheap.

but I have just under 300kwatts.

so i am better off with lower diff.

I am at 6ph btc
and 60 gh ltc/doge
and 3000mh/kawpow on nice hash.

I am filled.

It makes sense, as this ends up bringing greater profitability, even though each work is worth less, there will be more work and in the end you will earn more.

Now I'm curious: do LTC and Kawpow make up for it?
Are you going to say that with what you mine from them, you pay for the energy, allowing you to save more BTC!? 

[philipma1957]

good question.

my power is cheap.

but I have just under 300kwatts.

so i am better off with lower diff.

I am at 6ph btc
and 60 gh ltc/doge
and 3000mh/kawpow on nice hash.

I am filled.

It makes sense, as this ends up bringing greater profitability, even though each work is worth less, there will be more work and in the end you will earn more.

Now I'm curious: do LTC and Kawpow make up for it?
Are you going to say that with what you mine from them, you pay for the energy, allowing you to save more BTC!? 


kawpow is on nicehash direct to btc.

i believe in three coins

btc
ltc/doge

I mine and hold all three of them.

if you read my posts i posit that btc can not compete with doge/ltc for small value moves

so I hold all three.

but  I have 6 or 7 L7 miners vs 56 S17 s19 s19xp

[joker_josue]

kawpow is on nicehash direct to btc.

i believe in three coins

btc
ltc/doge

I mine and hold all three of them.

if you read my posts i posit that btc can not compete with doge/ltc for small value moves

so I hold all three.

but  I have 6 or 7 L7 miners vs 56 S17 s19 s19xp

Do you think it’s worth it to start mining LTC today?
For a small mining scale, was it viable?

[philipma1957]

kawpow is on nicehash direct to btc.

i believe in three coins

btc
ltc/doge

I mine and hold all three of them.

if you read my posts i posit that btc can not compete with doge/ltc for small value moves

so I hold all three.

but  I have 6 or 7 L7 miners vs 56 S17 s19 s19xp

Do you think it’s worth it to start mining LTC today?
For a small mining scale, was it viable?

sent a pm

back on topic

https://newhedge.io/

Latest Block:   820579  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   87.2839%  (68 / 77.91 expected, 9.91 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   67957790298897.88                            
Current Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 60779566840011 and 66829974909048
Next Difficulty Change:   between -9.6965% and -0.7071%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 10:31 PM  (-0.9592%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 24, 2023 at 1:46 AM  (in 13d 14h 15m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 25, 2023 at 11:28 PM  (in 15d 11h 57m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 14m 47s and 16d 0h 57m 1s

so price is solid about 43,900
last adjustment was negative 1%
and fees good old fees..

last ten blocks fees are :

1.39 btc
0.62
0.87
2.34
1.14
0.79
0.96
1.66
0.79
0.76


in 2024 rewards are 3.125
in 2028 rewards are 1.5625


so simple economics show fees are way more important to miners
the next  two ½ ings will be critical as large miners have shown they know how to raise fees like mad.

I hope I beat my late uncles record as the longest living male in my family. I need to make it to 94.

I will be 67 next month so That would give me 27 more years.

I would be able to see if Btc hangs in there and solves scaling for smaller sends or if scrypt becomes the main way to do smaller sends.

[mikeywith]

Latest Block:   820777  (8 minutes ago)
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 5:31 AM  (-0.9592%)

I was surprised that no one else celebrated the difficult drop, seems like only Phill is following  . finally, after 6 consecutive epochs (roughly 3 months) or since (2023-09-06 epoch to be exact), we got a small -1% drop which isn't all that great but better than 5%+.

Fees are down to 30 sat/Vbyte, price is stabilizing at around 41k, so 1PH earns roughly $95 / 0.00229 BTC which isn't bad considering the difficulty, the climb from mid-30s to 40k really helped a lot of miners, 5 months for the halving -- things are about to heat.