2023 Diff thread now opened.

[philipma1957]

Would this qualify as FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)?

Sure why not?

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   822869  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   107.1064%  (342 / 319.31 expected, 22.69 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                            
Current Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 73540467974029 and 77192903969491
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.1308% and +7.2032%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 1:01 AM  (+6.9834%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 5, 2024 at 2:43 AM  (in 10d 20h 29m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 5, 2024 at 6:06 PM  (in 11d 11h 51m 34s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 1h 42m 24s and 13d 17h 4m 39s

Latest Block:   823179  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.5534%  (652 / 635.77 expected, 16.23 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                            
Current Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 73009331752375 and 73878277747559
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.3932% and +2.6000%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 1:01 AM  (+6.9834%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 5, 2024 at 4:39 PM  (in 9d 5h 40m 23s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 5, 2024 at 8:29 PM  (in 9d 9h 30m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 38m 2s and 13d 19h 27m 49s


so over the last 310 blocks made we should have done 316 only a 2% variance so hard to say we are see a down clock from big players.


last ten blocks:


1.76
1.75
0.00  ant pool is going to get sued over this.
1.55
2.22
1.94
1.98
2.66
2.17
2.63


viabtc is paying 120%. so if you mine there it is like 1 btc is 1.2 x 43000 = 51,600 not 43,000

Latest Block:   823232  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.5780%  (705 / 715.17 expected, 10.17 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                            
Current Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 71010859282115 and 71428376079043
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.3822% and -0.8024%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 1:01 AM  (+6.9834%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 6, 2024 at 3:49 AM  (in 9d 3h 36m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 6, 2024 at 5:52 AM  (in 9d 5h 39m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 47m 49s and 14d 4h 50m 48s

huge shutdown of gear or massive downclock.

53 blocks made
we went from + 16 to negative -10

a 26 block shortfall in only a half day.

last ten blocks fees are high.

2.06
2.16
2.03
2.65
2.31
2.97
2.56
3.10
3.04
3.04

[1714242921]

1714242921

[1714242921]

1714242921

[1714242921]

1714242921

[joker_josue]

huge shutdown of gear or massive downclock.

Really, something incredible, right after an increase of +6%, there is a "drop" of 7%.
Is there any way to analyze which pool could have caused such a situation?

[philipma1957]

huge shutdown of gear or massive downclock.

Really, something incredible, right after an increase of +6%, there is a "drop" of 7%.
Is there any way to analyze which pool could have caused such a situation?

in block space xxx 179 to xxx232 53 blocks were made

the time was 15:54 to 05:05  that is 13 hours and 10 minutes

that was time enough for 69 blocks only 53 down 16 blocks

foundry made 15 blocks

antpool made 17 blocks

if pace was kept foundry would have been 23 of 69 so they were 8 blocks short

antpool would have Been around 17 of 69 they were normal.

so the shortage of 16 blocks the  8 by foundry were due to bad luck or variance or down clocking.

kano is good with math he can tell you the odds of pure bad luck if foundry should be 8  blocks more  in that 13 hour time span. it is a big shortage 53 not 69 for the network and 15 not 23 for foundry











edit all wrong sure look at foundry pool's blocks

 https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks

you can look at every block made this jump  and see if they backed off like I suspect they do.

go back about 750 blocks

and every 150 see if they did 50 or more or less.

the further away from 50 up or down is more likely they are under and overclocking to fuck with fees.

ie if 150 block and they did 48-52 just variance.  but if they did under 40 or over 60  up-down clocking is more likely.


they made 62 of last 174 which is a bit over not under.

next one to check would be antpool

[joker_josue]

~~

@philipma1957 I have to apologize. Honestly, I didn't understand these accounts very well. 

What you propose is to check the average number of blocks that each pool found? And then understand if there is a difference between some days and other days? And that?

Isn't it easier to evaluate the hash that each pool has applied? 

[philipma1957]

~~

@philipma1957 I have to apologize. Honestly, I didn't understand these accounts very well. 

What you propose is to check the average number of blocks that each pool found? And then understand if there is a difference between some days and other days? And that?

Isn't it easier to evaluate the hash that each pool has applied? 

not with foundry they do not show their hash gui as far as I know.

but you can find the blocks they make.

when we dropped all the blocks off the pace they were off the pace.

does it mean they did a down clock no.

it means they may have downclocked.

and when they make 15 blocks in a time period that they should have made 23  it slows the whole net work.

which in turn clogs the pool.

but proof that it is on purpose to pad their fees is very very very hard to do.

[joker_josue]

~~

@philipma1957 I have to apologize. Honestly, I didn't understand these accounts very well. 

What you propose is to check the average number of blocks that each pool found? And then understand if there is a difference between some days and other days? And that?

Isn't it easier to evaluate the hash that each pool has applied? 

not with foundry they do not show their hash gui as far as I know.

but you can find the blocks they make.

when we dropped all the blocks off the pace they were off the pace.

does it mean they did a down clock no.

it means they may have downclocked.

and when they make 15 blocks in a time period that they should have made 23  it slows the whole net work.

which in turn clogs the pool.

but proof that it is on purpose to pad their fees is very very very hard to do.

I get it!!! Foundry is a closed pool and in turn the largest Bitcoin mining pool in the world.

So this analysis makes perfect sense. I have to agree with you.

If the network starts to feel so much impact from a single pool - without proof - it is dangerous for the network. Without a doubt something has to be done, so that mining in a few years does not depend on large mining pools, which can act as a cartel and do whatever they want with 51% of the hash power.

[stompix]

Is there any way to analyze which pool could have caused such a situation?

Yeah, and it leads nowhere really! Starting December the 25:

Foundry 40,42,39,38
Antpool 33,34,37,34
F2pool 21,20,11,15
Viabtc 19,8,17,8

Before you think P2pool might do something like intentionally that those guys mined once 4 blocks after a day of 20, once you zoom out swing of 10 blocks a day are weekly occurrence.

The rest are not capable with all their hashrate to generate a 6% swing.

Rather than looking at the current downtrend as something unusual we might have to consider the previous peak as something out of the ordinary, the 7% was clearly not normal, and no, all the downclocking and upclocking and cockblocking in the world would not have triggered that, were talking about MW of extra power you don't just power extra 100MW out of the nowhere and tell the electricity company to please turn for a few days a new reactor back on till the end of the difficulty adjustment

Look at the previous adjustments that had a 6 number

+ 6.45 %  but after a - 3.26 % and followed by a - 2.94 %   
+ 6.17 %  but after a + 0.12 % and after it a - 2.65 %
+ 6.47 %    + 0.35 % and + 2.35 %

There is no way an organic grow can keep 6%,6% and 6%...even if we go with the overclocking downclocking stuff, how is that it would always go up? And why in steps? Why spread over two months and not in a few days?

Current Pace:   98.6504%  (885 / 897.11 expected, 12.11 behind)

Still chances of being positive, but not by that scary margin anymore.

[philipma1957]

and we are now -2.2%



https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   823567  (14 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.7211%  (1040 / 1064.25 expected, 24.25 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                            
Current Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 70384251932160 and 70757799525008
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.2524% and -1.7337%
Previous Retarget:   December 23, 2023 at 1:01 AM  (+6.9834%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 6, 2024 at 7:01 AM  (in 6d 20h 37m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 6, 2024 at 8:51 AM  (in 6d 22h 27m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 59m 57s and 14d 7h 50m 8s


looks more and more like an under clock move

fees last ten blocks

1.76
3.09
2.45
2.73
1.84
1.82
1.63
2.28
1.78
2.19



we are at exactly 0%

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   823783  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.0000%  (1256 / 1256.00 expected, 0 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                            
Current Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                            
Next Difficulty:   between 72020337192580 and 72022688568632
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0197% and +0.0230%
Previous Retarget:   December 23, 2023 at 1:01 AM  (+6.9834%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 1:01 AM  (in 5d 6h 39m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 1:01 AM  (in 5d 6h 39m 59s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 59m 59s and 13d 23h 59m 59s

[joker_josue]

After the passing of the year, it seems that things are still calm. Maybe people are more busy with parties than looking at mining. Rates remain high +100sat/vB. 

Latest Block:   823851  (12 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.3099%  (1324 / 1319.91 expected, 4.09 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   67305906902031.39                           
Current Difficulty:   72006146478567.1                             
Next Difficulty:   between 72216842619965 and 72245076516038
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2926% and +0.3318%
Previous Retarget:   December 23, 2023 at 6:01 AM  (+6.9834%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 4:59 AM  (in 4d 18h 58m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 5:06 AM  (in 4d 19h 5m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 57m 43s and 13d 23h 5m 3s

[paid2]

After the passing of the year, it seems that things are still calm. Maybe people are more busy with parties than looking at mining. Rates remain high +100sat/vB.  

Crazy times...

For now, I consider transactions with 40/50 sat/vB as cheap transactions...

I don't know what to think: on the one hand, I'm telling myself that it's going to end like it did in early 2023 (ordinals and inscriptions shit). On the other, I'm wondering whether these huge fees aren't becoming a new standard.  

At least it makes miners happy (those who don't make the mistake of mining in a pool that doesn't pay its fees to miners... In this case, it's a jackpot for these dishonest pools).


@philipma1957 will you open a 2024 diff thread or continue with this one? 

[joker_josue]

I don't know what to think: on the one hand, I'm telling myself that it's going to end like it did in early 2023 (ordinals and inscriptions shit). On the other, I'm wondering whether these huge fees aren't becoming a new standard.  

For the sake of bitcoin, let's hope not. Because if that happens, bitcoin adoption will be more difficult. Few merchants will accept paying this level of fees to receive payments. And if the coin stops being moved, it will lose value. Now, everything seems very nice and good for the miners, but in the medium term it is bad for everyone.

[paid2]

For the sake of bitcoin, let's hope not. Because if that happens, bitcoin adoption will be more difficult. Few merchants will accept paying this level of fees to receive payments. And if the coin stops being moved, it will lose value. Now, everything seems very nice and good for the miners, but in the medium term it is bad for everyone.

I understand your point of view perfectly, and I share it too.

However, I'm starting to think more and more that maybe we don't really need more adoption, because I imagine that the current situation would become commonplace... For example, adoption = massive usage of CEXes = centralisation excess. For now, Binance already holds ~10% of the total supply, it could be worst with more adoption. Or what will happen with ETFs backed up by Coinbase? Or, if for example we multiply the number of users by 10 in the near future, wouldn't we be facing exactly the same problem as we are today with ordinals?   Every time I ask these questions in my local section, I'm told that Lightning is the solution. But I refuse to use a sidechain at the moment, I'd rather use XMR than LN for example.

I stopped considering BTC as a "imperfect P2P cash" for a while now, but I consider now BTC as a perfect P2P storage of value.

(Sorry, that's a bit off topic!)

[philipma1957]

After the passing of the year, it seems that things are still calm. Maybe people are more busy with parties than looking at mining. Rates remain high +100sat/vB.  

Crazy times...

For now, I consider transactions with 40/50 sat/vB as cheap transactions...

I don't know what to think: on the one hand, I'm telling myself that it's going to end like it did in early 2023 (ordinals and inscriptions shit). On the other, I'm wondering whether these huge fees aren't becoming a new standard.  

At least it makes miners happy (those who don't make the mistake of mining in a pool that doesn't pay its fees to miners... In this case, it's a jackpot for these dishonest pools).


@philipma1957 will you open a 2024 diff thread or continue with this one?  

New one thanks for reminder.

Link to new.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5480022.0

and link to top of this thread.


  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5431167.0